Thaicom Buy (16E TP Bt39.00)
Company Update
Close Bt29.50
ICT
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
April 7, 2016
1Q16E core earnings on the uptrend Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.312
2.472
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐4.8%
‐12.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
THCOM.BK/THCOM TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,095.94
Par (Bt)
5.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
32.00/918.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
40.00/20.57
52 week High / Low (Bt)
40.00/24.10
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
3,167.00 6.04
Estimated free float (%)
58.85
Beta
0.83
URL
www.thaicom.net
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
BUY rating maintained We reiterate our “Buy” rating for THCOM given its strong operating performance on the back of increasing bandwidth utilization. Its effort to add up capacity in focused markets will be the share price catalyst and upside to our model. We currently leave our earnings forecasts unchanged. 1Q16E core earnings to grow strongly YoY We expect THCOM to post a core profit of Bt685mn, increasing 54%YoY. This should be attributed to full bandwidth utilization from Thaicom7 and LTC’s strongly improving operation. On a QoQ basis, its core earnings should slide by 10%. The upward trend of the satellite services operation on the back of Thaicom7’s full utilization is expected to be offset by the seasonal drop of LTC’s operation and a back‐to‐normal effective tax rate. Taking Fx gain and insignificant gain on sales of the remaining Synertone shares into account, its net profit should increase 32%YoY. Progress on ramping up utilization THCOM has signed a new long‐term contract with the Forever Group, Myanmar’s leading media company, for five transponders in addition to its existing three on Thaicom6’s satellite. THCOM claims that it is working on traffic optimization among three satellites on the position of 78.5 degrees east (Thaicom5, 6 and the to‐be‐launched Thaicom8). As Thaicom5 and 6’s capacity serving Indochina is fully utilized, this implies that the contract with the Forever Group should drive Thaicom8’s utilization to reach 38%. Note that Thaicom8 is scheduled to be in orbit in the middle of this year. Nevertheless, there has been minimal progress on new orders from IPSTAR and Thaicom6’s African market. Thaicom8 on schedule for launch THCOM confirmed that Thaicom8 is on schedule to be launched into orbit, likely by the end of June. It is expected that its utilization will reach 50% within 12 months after launch. THCOM expects the MICT to soon finalize their policies on satellites to pave the way for the new satellites launch. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
Revenues (Btmn)
12,065
12,454
13,239
13,705
13,951
Net profit (Btmn)
2,434
1,601
2,122
2,414
2,376
EPS (Bt)
1.46
1.94
2.20
2.17
2.22
Norm EPS (Bt)
1.71
2.11
2.20
2.17
2.22
24.2%
23.5%
4.6%
‐1.6%
2.4%
0.65
0.65
0.88
0.87
0.89
15.77
16.53
18.09
19.38
20.74
Norm EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
Norm. PER (x)
23.79
14.98
13.39
13.61
13.28
Analyst, no. 2482
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.67
6.66
6.48
5.53
4.81
P/BV (x)
2.20
1.75
1.63
1.52
1.42
[email protected] Dividend yield (%)
1.9%
2.2%
3.0%
2.9%
3.0%
66 (0) 2624‐6273
ROE (%)
11.5%
13.3%
13.0%
11.8%
11.3%
Net gearing (%)
38.2%
37.0%
39.7%
19.2%
‐1.9%
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: Earnings preview Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec. Revenue Gross Profit EBITDA Share of profit from affiliate Interest Expense Other income Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt to equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
1Q15
4Q15
1Q16E
3,074 1,214 1,343 46 82 43 540 444 0.49 39.5% 43.7% 17.6% 1.70 8.04 0.88 14.98 2.6%
3,294 1,380 1,523 83 56 45 745 762 0.68 41.9% 46.2% 22.6% 1.83 16.52 0.88 16.14 4.3%
3,217 1,347 1,498 82 52 45 710 685 0.65 41.9% 46.6% 22.1% 1.77 17.34 0.82 16.51 3.7%
%QoQ ‐2.4% ‐2.5% ‐1.6% nn ‐7.0% ‐1.0% ‐4.6% ‐10.2% ‐4.6% 0.0% 0.4% ‐0.5%
2.3%
%YoY 4.6% 10.9% 11.6% 76.0% ‐36.1% 5.7% 31.5% 54.4% 31.5% 2.4% 2.9% 4.5%
2015
12,454 5,099 5,776 194 306 154 2,122 2,308 1.94 40.9% 46.4% 17.0% 1.83 10.24 0.85 10.2% 16.53 13.3%
2016 13,239 5,440 6,202 223 363 159 2,414 2,414 2.20 41.1% 46.8% 18.2% 1.98 9.19 0.81 18.09 13.0%
%YoY 6.3% 6.7% 7.4% 14.9% 18.5% 3.3% 13.8% 4.6% 13.8% 0.1% 0.5% 1.2%
YTD (% of 2016E) 24.3% 24.8% 24.2% 36.7% 14.5% 28.3% 29.4% 28.4% 29.4%
9.4%
Source: THCOM and KT Zmico Research Figure 2: PER and EV/EBITDA band
Source: THCOM and KT Zmico Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI. Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.