Bangkok Bank Outperform (15E TP Bt200.00) - Global Alliance Partners

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Bangkok Bank   Outperform (15E TP Bt200.00) 

Earnings Review 

Close Bt189.00

Banking   April 22, 2015 

Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line  

 

1Q15 earnings in line   

 

FY15 

FY16 

Consensus EPS (Bt) 

19.707 

21.475 

KT ZMICO vs. consensus    Share data 

‐1.6% 

‐2.3% 

Reuters / Bloomberg 

   

BBL.BK/BBL TB 

Paid‐up Shares (m) 

1,908.84 

Par (Bt) 

10.00 

Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) 

361.00/11,149.00 

Foreign limit / actual (%) 

25.00/34.75 

52 week High / Low (Bt) 

216.00/177.50 

Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) 

5,471.00 

NVDR (%) 

31.51 

Estimated free float (%) 

97.54 

Beta 

0.82 

URL 

www.bangkokbank.com 

CGR  

 

Cheap valuations and solid balance sheet are main appeals  We maintain an Outperform rating for BBL as we see its cheap valuations  (with 2015E P/BV of 1.1x and PER of 9.7x vs. the sector averages of 1.4x  and 12x, respectively) and its more solid balance sheet vs. peers as the  main appeals.  1Q15 net profit in line with our forecast and the street     BBL’s  1Q15  net  profit  (NP)  of  Bt9.4bn  (+5%  YoY,  +7%  QoQ)  was  in  line  with both our forecast and the street estimate of Bt9bn.     1015 net profit grew 5% YoY and 7% QoQ  The main drivers for the modest NP growth both on a YoY and QoQ basis  were strong net fee income growth of 23% YoY and 11% QoQ (ahead of  our  forecast)  as  well  as  large  investment  gain  of  Bt1.2bn  in  1Q15  vs.  Bt484mn  in  1Q14.  Meanwhile,  following  the  large  investment  gain  and  slightly higher NPLs in this quarter, the bank set a higher provision in the  quarter  (67  bps)  vs.  its  target  of  around  45‐50  bps  for  2015E.  NIM  weakened sharply (by ~14bps) both YoY and QoQ on the rate cut impact  as expected. Loan growth remained weak (+1.6% YoY, ‐0.4% QoQ) when  compared with direct peers.      Asset quality should still be manageable  The bank’s NPL ratio increased slightly QoQ to 2.2% of loans from 2.1%  following the weak economic recovery. We still expect BBL to be able to  manage  its  asset  quality  efficiently  given  its  prudent  risk  management  and solid reserve position.     Financial and Valuation   FY Ended 31 Dec 

2012 

2013 

2014 

2015E 

2016E 

PPOP (Btm) 

32,829 

36,085 

34,616 

36,069 

38,517 

Net profit (Btm) 

31,847 

35,906 

36,332 

37,026 

40,072 

16.68 

18.81 

19.03 

19.40 

20.99 

EPS growth (%) 

16% 

13% 

1% 

2% 

8% 

Book value (Bt) 

192.92 

EPS (Bt) 

143.30 

155.03 

169.47 

178.45 

Dividend (Bt) 

6.50 

6.50 

6.50 

7.00 

7.14 

FY Ended 31 Dec

2012 

2013 

2014 

2015E 

2016E 

PER (X) 

11.33 

10.05 

9.93 

9.74 

9.00 

PBV (X) 

1.32 

1.22 

1.12 

1.06 

0.98 

Prapharas Nonthapiboon 

Dividend yield (%) 

3.44 

3.44 

3.44 

3.70 

3.78 

Analyst, no 17836 

ROE (%) 

12% 

13% 

12% 

11% 

11% 

[email protected]  66 (0) 2695‐5872 

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 1 of 4 

Figure 1: 1Q15 earnings results  Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.

1Q14

4Q14

1Q15

% YoY

% QoQ

2015E

% YoY % 1Q to 15E

Net Interest Income

14,067

14,860

14,235

1%

-4%

60,786

3%

23%

Non Interest Income

8,671

8,973

10,813

25%

21%

38,281

8%

28%

22,738

23,833

25,048

10%

5%

99,067

5%

25%

9,412

12,057

10,376

10%

-14%

44,376

3%

23%

11,759

9,590

11,936

2%

24%

45,025

4%

27%

Operating Income Operating Expenses Operating Profit-pre tax Provision Expenses (Reversal)

2,103

939

2,980

42%

217%

8,526

-2%

35%

Tax expenses (Reversal)

2,222

2,028

2,235

1%

10%

8,956

4%

25%

Minority Interest

NM

NM

NM

27%

Net Profit

8,965

(36)

8,763

9,407

5%

7%

37,026

2%

25%

PPOP-post tax

9,537

7,562

9,700

2%

28%

36,069

4%

27%

4.70

4.59

4.93

5%

7%

19.40

2%

25%

EPS (Bt)

Key Statistics & Ratios

1Q14

Gross NPLs (Btmn)

45,003

Gross NPLs/Loans

(45)

4Q14 45,046

(50)

1Q15 47,473

(183)

2015E 46,546

2.20%

2.10%

2.20%

2.08%

210.1%

204.1%

189.9%

208.08%

Tier I to Risk Assets

14.5%

15.1%

15.2%

14.86%

C apital Adequacy Ratio

16.9%

17.4%

17.4%

17.33%

Loan to Deposit Ratio

90.3%

86.6%

83.8%

85.34%

Loan to Deposit & Borrowing

84.3%

81.0%

78.6%

64.34%

Provision to loans

0.48%

0.21%

0.67%

0.46%

C ost to Income

41.4%

50.6%

41.4%

44.79%

Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs

Non Interest Inc./Total Income

38.1%

37.7%

43.2%

38.64%

Net Interest Margin (NIM)

2.32%

2.33%

2.18%

2.27%

Tax rate (Reversal)

19.8%

18.7%

19.1%

19.4%

Loan Growth YoY

9.6%

1.7%

1.6%

4.0%

Loan Growth QoQ

-0.4%

2.3%

-0.4%

Source: KTZMICO Research 

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 2 of 4 

Figure 2: BBL's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels   (X)

2015E

1.75

PER (x) Implied market price (Bt)

to current price (%)

+2.0SD

13.2

257

36

+2 S.D. 1.50

+1 S.D.

+1.5SD

12.5

243

29

-0.5 S.D.

+1.0SD

11.8

230

22

-1 S.D.

+0.5SD

11.1

216

14

-2 S.D.

Average

10.5

203

7

-0.5SD

9.8

189

0

-1.0SD

9.1

176

-7

-1.5SD

8.4

162

-14

-2.0SD

7.7

149

-21

+0.5 S.D. Avg.

1.25

1.00

Apr-15

Nov-14

Jan-14

Jun-14

Aug-13

Oct-12

Mar-13

May-12

Jul-11

Dec-11

Feb-11

Apr-10

Sep-10

Nov-09

Jan-09

Jun-09

Aug-08

Oct-07

Mar-08

Jun-07

Jan-07

0.75

0.50

Upside/ Downside

 

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research 

    Figure 3: BBL's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels   (X) 14.0

2015E

+2 S.D.

PER (x) Implied market

13.0 12.0

Upside/ Downside

price (Bt)

to current price (%)

+1 S.D.

+2.0SD

13.2

257

36

Avg.

+1.5SD

12.5

243

29

+1.0SD

11.8

230

22

+0.5SD

11.1

216

14

Average

7

11.0 10.0 9.0

-1 S.D.

8.0

-2 S.D.

7.0

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research 

Apr-15

Nov-14

Jun-14

Jan-14

Aug-13

Mar-13

Oct-12

May-12

Dec-11

Jul-11

Feb-11

Sep-10

Apr-10

Nov-09

Jun-09

Jan-09

Oct-07

Mar-08

Jan-07

Jun-07

5.0

Aug-08

6.0

10.5

203

-0.5SD

9.8

189

0

-1.0SD

9.1

176

-7

-1.5SD

8.4

162

-14

-2.0SD

7.7

149

-21

 

       

     

                            REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 3 of 4 

                                          DISCLAIMER  This  document  is  produced  using  open  sources  believed  to  be  reliable.  However,  their  accuracy  and  completeness  cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as  information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This  document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The  use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. 

  KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS  STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS  BUY:  Expecting  positive  total  returns  of  15%  or  more    over the next 12 months        OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10%  to  +15%;  returns  expected  to  exceed  market  return    over six months period because of specific catalysts       UNDERPERFORM:  Expecting  total  returns  between    ‐10%  to  +15%;  returns  expected  to  below  market  return  over  six  months  period  because  of  specific  catalysts     SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more  over the next 12 months 

 

SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS    OVERWEIGHT:  The industry, as defined by the analyst's    coverage  universe,  is  expected  to  outperform  the    relevant  primary  market  index  by  at  least  10%  over  the  next 12 months.        NEUTRAL:    The  industry,  as  defined  by  the  analyst's  coverage  universe,  is  expected  to  perform  in  line  with  the  relevant  primary  market  index  over  the  next  12  months.    UNDERWEIGHT:    The  industry,  as  defined  by  the  analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform  the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next  12 months. 

 

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 4 of 4 

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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited

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8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000

Phaholyothin Branch

rd

Fax. (66-2) 631-1709

Ploenchit Branch

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nd

2

Sindhorn Branch

3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,

8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,

1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,

900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,

Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,

Phayathai, Bangkok 10400

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500

Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000

Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550

Fax. (66-2) 686-1666

Fax. (66-2) 626-6111

Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600

Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100

Chachoengsao Branch

Viphavadee Branch

Phitsanulok Branch

G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,

Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch

333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,

114 Singhawat Road,

Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900

Muang, Phitsanulok 65000

Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500

Telephone: 083-490-2873

Fax. (66-2) 618-8569

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Chonburi Branch

Pattaya Branch

108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,

4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,

382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,

T.Namuang, A.Muang,

870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,

A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260

Chachoengsao 24000

A. Muang, Cholburi 20000

Telephone: (038) 362-420-9

Telephone: (038) 813-088

Telephone: (038) 287-635

Fax. (038) 362-430

Fax. (038) 813-099

Fax. (038) 287-637

Khon Kaen Branch

5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,

Hat Yai Branch

Sriworajak Building Branch

200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,

1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222

260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,

Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,

Luang Road, Pomprab,

A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000

Hatyai Songkhla 90110

Bankgok 10100

Telephone: (043) 389-171-193

Telephone: (074) 355-530-3

Telephone: (02) 689-3100

Fax. (043) 389-209

Fax: (074) 355-534

Fax. (02) 689-3199

Central World Branch

Chiang Mai Branch

Phuket Branch

999/9 The Offices at Central World,

422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan

22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,

16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,

Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,

Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,

Bangkok 10330

Chiang Mai 50100

Phuket 83000

Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,

Telephone: (053) 270-072

Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683

(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899

Fax: (053) 272-618

Fax. (076) 222-861

Pak Chong Branch

Cyber Branch @ North Nana

173 175, Mittapap Road,

Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871

Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574

Nakhon Ratchasima Branch

Bangkhae Branch

6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970

624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.