Bangkok Bank Outperform (15E TP Bt200.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt189.00
Banking April 22, 2015
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
1Q15 earnings in line
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
19.707
21.475
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐1.6%
‐2.3%
Reuters / Bloomberg
BBL.BK/BBL TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,908.84
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
361.00/11,149.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/34.75
52 week High / Low (Bt)
216.00/177.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
5,471.00
NVDR (%)
31.51
Estimated free float (%)
97.54
Beta
0.82
URL
www.bangkokbank.com
CGR
Cheap valuations and solid balance sheet are main appeals We maintain an Outperform rating for BBL as we see its cheap valuations (with 2015E P/BV of 1.1x and PER of 9.7x vs. the sector averages of 1.4x and 12x, respectively) and its more solid balance sheet vs. peers as the main appeals. 1Q15 net profit in line with our forecast and the street BBL’s 1Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt9.4bn (+5% YoY, +7% QoQ) was in line with both our forecast and the street estimate of Bt9bn. 1015 net profit grew 5% YoY and 7% QoQ The main drivers for the modest NP growth both on a YoY and QoQ basis were strong net fee income growth of 23% YoY and 11% QoQ (ahead of our forecast) as well as large investment gain of Bt1.2bn in 1Q15 vs. Bt484mn in 1Q14. Meanwhile, following the large investment gain and slightly higher NPLs in this quarter, the bank set a higher provision in the quarter (67 bps) vs. its target of around 45‐50 bps for 2015E. NIM weakened sharply (by ~14bps) both YoY and QoQ on the rate cut impact as expected. Loan growth remained weak (+1.6% YoY, ‐0.4% QoQ) when compared with direct peers. Asset quality should still be manageable The bank’s NPL ratio increased slightly QoQ to 2.2% of loans from 2.1% following the weak economic recovery. We still expect BBL to be able to manage its asset quality efficiently given its prudent risk management and solid reserve position. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
PPOP (Btm)
32,829
36,085
34,616
36,069
38,517
Net profit (Btm)
31,847
35,906
36,332
37,026
40,072
16.68
18.81
19.03
19.40
20.99
EPS growth (%)
16%
13%
1%
2%
8%
Book value (Bt)
192.92
EPS (Bt)
143.30
155.03
169.47
178.45
Dividend (Bt)
6.50
6.50
6.50
7.00
7.14
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
PER (X)
11.33
10.05
9.93
9.74
9.00
PBV (X)
1.32
1.22
1.12
1.06
0.98
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
Dividend yield (%)
3.44
3.44
3.44
3.70
3.78
Analyst, no 17836
ROE (%)
12%
13%
12%
11%
11%
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 1Q15 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
% YoY
% QoQ
2015E
% YoY % 1Q to 15E
Net Interest Income
14,067
14,860
14,235
1%
-4%
60,786
3%
23%
Non Interest Income
8,671
8,973
10,813
25%
21%
38,281
8%
28%
22,738
23,833
25,048
10%
5%
99,067
5%
25%
9,412
12,057
10,376
10%
-14%
44,376
3%
23%
11,759
9,590
11,936
2%
24%
45,025
4%
27%
Operating Income Operating Expenses Operating Profit-pre tax Provision Expenses (Reversal)
2,103
939
2,980
42%
217%
8,526
-2%
35%
Tax expenses (Reversal)
2,222
2,028
2,235
1%
10%
8,956
4%
25%
Minority Interest
NM
NM
NM
27%
Net Profit
8,965
(36)
8,763
9,407
5%
7%
37,026
2%
25%
PPOP-post tax
9,537
7,562
9,700
2%
28%
36,069
4%
27%
4.70
4.59
4.93
5%
7%
19.40
2%
25%
EPS (Bt)
Key Statistics & Ratios
1Q14
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
45,003
Gross NPLs/Loans
(45)
4Q14 45,046
(50)
1Q15 47,473
(183)
2015E 46,546
2.20%
2.10%
2.20%
2.08%
210.1%
204.1%
189.9%
208.08%
Tier I to Risk Assets
14.5%
15.1%
15.2%
14.86%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
16.9%
17.4%
17.4%
17.33%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
90.3%
86.6%
83.8%
85.34%
Loan to Deposit & Borrowing
84.3%
81.0%
78.6%
64.34%
Provision to loans
0.48%
0.21%
0.67%
0.46%
C ost to Income
41.4%
50.6%
41.4%
44.79%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
Non Interest Inc./Total Income
38.1%
37.7%
43.2%
38.64%
Net Interest Margin (NIM)
2.32%
2.33%
2.18%
2.27%
Tax rate (Reversal)
19.8%
18.7%
19.1%
19.4%
Loan Growth YoY
9.6%
1.7%
1.6%
4.0%
Loan Growth QoQ
-0.4%
2.3%
-0.4%
Source: KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 2: BBL's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
2015E
1.75
PER (x) Implied market price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
13.2
257
36
+2 S.D. 1.50
+1 S.D.
+1.5SD
12.5
243
29
-0.5 S.D.
+1.0SD
11.8
230
22
-1 S.D.
+0.5SD
11.1
216
14
-2 S.D.
Average
10.5
203
7
-0.5SD
9.8
189
0
-1.0SD
9.1
176
-7
-1.5SD
8.4
162
-14
-2.0SD
7.7
149
-21
+0.5 S.D. Avg.
1.25
1.00
Apr-15
Nov-14
Jan-14
Jun-14
Aug-13
Oct-12
Mar-13
May-12
Jul-11
Dec-11
Feb-11
Apr-10
Sep-10
Nov-09
Jan-09
Jun-09
Aug-08
Oct-07
Mar-08
Jun-07
Jan-07
0.75
0.50
Upside/ Downside
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: BBL's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 14.0
2015E
+2 S.D.
PER (x) Implied market
13.0 12.0
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+1 S.D.
+2.0SD
13.2
257
36
Avg.
+1.5SD
12.5
243
29
+1.0SD
11.8
230
22
+0.5SD
11.1
216
14
Average
7
11.0 10.0 9.0
-1 S.D.
8.0
-2 S.D.
7.0
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Apr-15
Nov-14
Jun-14
Jan-14
Aug-13
Mar-13
Oct-12
May-12
Dec-11
Jul-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Apr-10
Nov-09
Jun-09
Jan-09
Oct-07
Mar-08
Jan-07
Jun-07
5.0
Aug-08
6.0
10.5
203
-0.5SD
9.8
189
0
-1.0SD
9.1
176
-7
-1.5SD
8.4
162
-14
-2.0SD
7.7
149
-21
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.