CANADA
CANADA
1899 Preston White Drive, Reston, Virginia 20191 (703) 264-7200 © PRIMIR/NPES 2008
INTRODUCTION In today’s global business, print faces constant change and multinational challenges. In order to react intelligently and be proactive printing industry business leaders urgently need worldwide data to reference when making internationally-based business decisions. PRIMIR recently released a series of three reports on the “World Wide Market for Print.” Pira International was commissioned to investigate the key global print markets. This study identified 51 country markets that make up 99% of the global commercial printing industry. The series of reports detail social and economic climate in each region, demographic profiles, advertising trends, internet usage/adoption, print markets and applications, print process share, and market sizing for presses, equipment, consumables and paper. Forecasts are provided through 2011. The report that follows is a summary of data and information from all three reports pertaining to this specific country. Note: Unless otherwise noted, the data is presented in U.S. Dollars, taking into account forecast rates for GDP growth and inflation, constant 2006 exchange rates have been applied. The final report includes a database where statistics are provided for both current and constant U.S. Dollars as well as in local currency (both current and constant).
CANADA - OVERVIEW Canada has been a confederation since 1867. It is a constitutional monarchy and a member of the British Commonwealth. Canada’s constitution provides for a bicameral parliament consisting of an elected House of Commons (308 members) and an appointed Senate (105 members). Legislative power lies with the House of Commons, whose members are elected for a term of five years. However, the prime minister may request the governor general to dissolve the parliament at any point during this five year term.
At present the Senate members are appointed by the governor general on the advice of the prime minister, but discussions are under way to change this to an electoral system. Canada is divided into ten provinces and three territories, with each province having a lieutenant-governor who is appointed by the governor general. The current Prime Minister Stephen Harper of the Conservative Party was elected in February of this year, ending 12 years of Liberal rule in the country.
With an area of 9,970,610 sq km (3,849,674 sq miles), Canada is the second largest country in the world. The current population is approximately 32.5 million, most of whom live 1
in the south east of the country, principally in Toronto (4.7 million) and Montreal (3.4 million). The capital is Ottawa with 1.1 million inhabitants. The second largest province in Canada, Quebec, is French-speaking.
Literacy levels compare very favorably with other developed economies, ranked fifth in the world with 100% of the population completing primary level education and 98% completing secondary level education in 2003. Life expectancy is now 81 years. Overall GDP for 2006 is projected at US$1.26 billion with GDP per capita standing at US$38,676.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS The 2007 population of Canada is estimated at 32.5 million, 45.5% of whom are male. Population projections point to an increase in the populace of approximately 10.3 million in the next 45 years, taking the number of Canadian inhabitants up to 42.8 million by 2050, an increase of 31.7%. The median age of the population today is 38.9 years and this is forecast to increase to 45.2 years by 2050, with the proportion of 15-64 year-olds falling from 68.4% in 2000 to 58.7% by 2050.
Figure 1 Canada: Long-term Demographic Trends by Age Group, 2000-2050 0-14
15-64
65+
Total population
80
45,000 42,844 40,000
70
37,797 35,000
% population
30,689
30,000
50 68.4
25,000
40
63.7 20,000 58.7
30 20.9
19.0 20
12.6
15.7
15.4
25.6
15,000 10,000
10
5,000 0
0 2000
2025
Source: United Nations 2
2050
Total population ('000s)
60
ECONOMIC TRENDS Canada is predominantly an urban services-dependant economy with a large manufacturing base. It has abundant natural resources including oil and natural gas, metals, minerals, wildlife, fish and forests. Its major exports include crude oil, chemicals, natural gas, motor vehicles and parts, aircraft and components, machinery, fish, forestry products and minerals.
In 2006 total GDP in Canada is projected to reach US$1.36 billion, with GDP rising by 3.1%. GDP growth in 2005 was at 3.1% and a figure of 3.0% is forecast for 2007. Inflation stood at 3.1% in 2005 and is projected to fall to 3.0% in 2006 and 1.7% in 2007.
The Canadian economy is characterized by its extremely close relationship with the USA. Approximately 85% of Canadian products are destined for the USA and 59% of its imports come from the USA. The 1994 NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) between the US, Canada and Mexico liberalized regulations and reduced tariffs in many areas, increasing trade between these countries dramatically.
Canada has a strong macroeconomic framework which supports its robust economic performance. Growth is strong and consistent, business investment is healthy, the currency is strong, inflation is under control and labor market conditions are generally good with positive employment and productivity growth. The outlook for the economy remains favorable. Risks to be aware of include low personal savings rates and the fiscal pressures of an aging population.
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Table 1 Canada: Key Economic Indicators, 2003-2007 Indicator Population ('000s) Exchange rate (=US$1) Purchasing power parity (=US$1) GDP (local currency, millions, current prices) GDP (local currency, millions, constant 2000 prices) GDP (current, US$ million) GDP, PPP (current, US$ million) GDP per capita (US$) GDP per capita, PPP (US$) GDP growth (%) GDP deflator (%) Consumer price index (2000=100) Imports (US$ million) Exports (US$ million)
2003 31,627 1.40 1.21 1,216,191 1,152,529
2004 31,946 1.30 1.22 1,290,185 1,185,952
2005 32,268 1.21 1.22 1,368,726 1,220,345
2006p 32,546 1.15 1.22 1,452,714 1,258,175
2007f 32,826 1.16 1.22 1,521,111 1,295,920
870,477 991,397 27,523 31,347 2.0 3.3 107.7 245,021 272,739
993,443 1,047,304 31,098 32,784 2.9 3.1 109.7 279,912 304,453
1,130,208 1,104,701 35,026 34,235 2.9 3.1 112.2 331,565 359,399
1,258,729 1,163,953 38,676 35,764 3.1 3.0 115.5 n/a n/a
1,309,191 1,224,923 39,883 37,316 3.0 1.7 117.4 n/a n/a
Note: p=projected; f=forecast Source: Pira International, Ltd calculations from the United Nations (population data), International Monetary Fund (economic data)
THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT There were 100 daily newspapers in print in Canada in 2004, two of which are nationals with the remainder regional/local titles. Total circulation was 5.35 million, up 3.5% from 2000. The top selling daily is the Toronto Star which has a circulation of 470,000 million, followed by The Globe Mail with a circulation of 328,000. In 2004, newspaper advertising revenue was US$2.75 million, up from $2.21 billion in 2001 but down on 2000 levels of US$2.93 billion.
In 2004 there were 1,114 consumer magazine titles in Canada, an increase of 15.9% compared to 2001, with some 64.7% of revenue derived from advertising and 35.3% from sales. Major magazine publishers include Rogers Media and Transcontinental Media. Revenue from magazine advertising was US$585 billion, up from US$411 million in 2001 but down on 2000 levels of US$641 million.
Total print advertising expenditure in Canada amounted to US$7,418 million in 2004, up 50% from 1995. Tobacco advertising, advertising of OTC drugs, alcohol and advertising to children are all restricted.
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Table 2 Canada: Advertising and Print Media Trends, 2000-2004 Advertising media Above-the-line advertising (media sales) Total advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper advertising expenditure (US$ million) Magazine advertising expenditure (US$ million) Outdoor advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print's share of advertising expenditure (%) Internet advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper trends Number of daily titles Dailies' circulation ('000s)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
6,459.0 3,781.1 2,932.0 640.9 208.2 58.5 74.1
5,504.9 2,835.9 2,211.7 410.9 213.3 51.5 62.6
5,558.8 2,814.0 2,191.0 418.3 204.7 50.6 112.2
6,606.2 3,223.4 2,472.4 512.2 238.8 48.8 169.2
7,418.7 3,607.3 2,748.6 585.1 273.6 48.6 226.7
104 5,167
104 5,185
102 5,005
102 4,930
100 5,350
941 n/a
961 n/a
1,000 n/a
1,032 525
1,114 n/a
Magazine trends Number of consumer titles Number of business-to-business titles
Source: World Advertising Trends, World Press Trends, World Magazine Trends
In 2005 Internet usage among the population stood at 68%, up from 41% in 2000. Broadband penetration stood at 21% of the population during 2005.
Figure 2 Canada: Trends in Internet Usage, 2000-2005 Internet usage (% population)
Broadband penetration (%)
70
67.9 61.5
60
55.7 50.4
% population
50 40
45.7 41.4
30 20 8.9
10
12.1
15.1
17.6
21.0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: Pira International Ltd calculations from Internetworldstats.com (www.Internetworldstats.com); OECD (broadband penetration)
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2005
PRINT MARKET TRENDS The Canadian print market was valued at C$17.5 billion (US$14.5 billion) in 2005, projected to grow by 4.3% in absolute terms in 2006 and by 1.3% in real terms, excluding the impact of inflation. During the period 2001-2006, the market grew at an average annual rate of 5% in absolute terms and 2.3% in real terms.
Table 3 Canada: Print Market Trends, 2001-2006
C$ million, current prices C$ million, constant 2005 prices US$ million, current prices
2001
2005
2006p
18,264.1
% change 20052006 4.3
CAGR (%) 20012006 5.0
14,295.4
17,514.0
15,858.6
17,514.0
17,741.7
1.3
2.3
$9,232.7
$14,462.0
$15,825.3
9.4
11.4
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Flexo represents the single largest segment of the Canadian market across print processes, with flexo printing output valued at C$4.82 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 4.4% in absolute terms in 2006. Heatset web offset is the single largest component of offset litho printing with output at C$3.10 billion. The sheetfed market is valued at C$2.43 billion, and coldset web offset is losing market share. The fastest growing areas of the market are Electrophotography and inkjet at C$1.40 billion and C$451 million respectively in 2005, with screen and particularly letterpress losing market share.
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Table 4 Canada: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (C$ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
6,546.8 2,063.6 4,483.2 1,859.1 2,624.1 2,012.0 3,905.4 622.0 199.2 656.6 220.5 132.9 14,295.4
7,551.5 2,433.7 5,117.8 2,016.8 3,101.0 2,367.7 4,820.0 654.1 130.5 1,397.5 450.7 142.1 17,514.0
7,739.8 2,538.1 5,201.7 2,030.6 3,171.1 2,417.2 5,032.9 630.3 104.8 1,684.0 507.9 147.2 18,264.1
% change 2005-2006 2.5 4.3 1.6 0.7 2.3 2.1 4.4 -3.6 -19.6 20.5 12.7 3.6 4.3
CAGR (%) 2001-2006 3.4 4.2 3.0 1.8 3.9 3.7 5.2 0.3 -12.1 20.7 18.2 2.1 5.0
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 5 Canada: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
$4,228.3 1,332.8 2,895.5 1,200.7 1,694.8 1,299.4 2,522.3 401.7 128.7 424.1 142.4 85.8 $9,232.7
$6,235.6 2,009.6 4,226.0 1,665.4 2,560.6 1,955.1 3,980.1 540.1 107.7 1,154.0 372.1 117.4 $14,462.0
$6,706.4 2,199.2 4,507.2 1,759.5 2,747.7 2,094.4 4,360.8 546.1 90.8 1,459.1 440.1 127.5 $15,825.3
% change 2005-2006 7.6 9.4 6.7 5.7 7.3 7.1 9.6 1.1 -15.7 26.4 18.3 8.7 9.4
CAGR (%) 2001-2006 9.7 10.5 9.3 7.9 10.1 10.0 11.6 6.3 -6.7 28.0 25.3 8.2 11.4
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Across end-use areas, packaging represents the single largest product sector with sales of C$4.83 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 5.5% in 2006. Other key growth areas during 2006 will include advertising sectors such as direct mail and inserts, as well as magazines and labels. Relatively low growth is seen in areas such as catalogs, business forms and directories.
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Table 6 Canada: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (C$ million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p 744.3 1,488.3 368.6 1,779.1 1,204.6 1,390.6 844.9
% change 20052006 3.3 0.7 1.6 5.6 3.0 5.9 4.6
CAGR (%) 20012006 3.7 2.3 1.8 5.8 4.1 6.3 4.7
621.9 1,326.8 336.6 1,343.1 983.2 1,024.7 671.6
720.2 1,478.2 362.8 1,684.7 1,169.0 1,313.0 808.0
440.0 73.2 331.8 401.1 301.2 3,804.3 2,106.0 815.0 883.4 687.8 1,948.3 14,295.4
566.0 91.5 399.0 458.1 341.5 4,826.0 2,511.9 1,044.8 1,269.2 849.4 2,446.6 17,514.0
599.9 96.5 417.2 465.8 355.3 5,091.8 2,644.8 1,115.5 1,331.5 890.2 2,527.1 18,264.1
6.0 5.4 4.6 1.7 4.1 5.5 5.3 6.8 4.9 4.8 3.3 4.3
6.4 5.7 4.7 3.0 3.4 6.0 4.7 6.5 8.6 5.3 5.3 5.0
3,804.3 1,684.5 2,119.9
4,826.0 2,238.8 2,587.2
5,091.8 2,367.6 2,724.3
5.5 5.8 5.3
6.0 7.0 5.1
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 7 Canada: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Product
2001
2005
2006p
Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total
$401.6 856.9 217.4 867.4 635.0 661.8 433.8
$594.7 1,220.6 299.6 1,391.1 965.3 1,084.2 667.2
$644.9 1,289.6 319.4 1,541.5 1,043.7 1,204.9 732.1
% change 20052006 8.4 5.7 6.6 10.8 8.1 11.1 9.7
CAGR (%) 2001-2006 9.9 8.5 8.0 12.2 10.4 12.7 11.0
284.1 47.3 214.3 259.0 194.5 2,457.0 1,360.1 526.4 570.5 444.2 1,258.3 $9,232.7
467.3 75.6 329.5 378.2 282.0 3,985.0 2,074.2 862.8 1,048.1 701.4 2,020.2 $14,462.0
519.8 83.6 361.5 403.6 307.9 4,411.9 2,291.7 966.5 1,153.7 771.3 2,189.7 $15,825.3
11.2 10.6 9.7 6.7 9.2 10.7 10.5 12.0 10.1 10.0 8.4 9.4
12.8 12.1 11.0 9.3 9.6 12.4 11.0 12.9 15.1 11.7 11.7 11.4
Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
$2,457.0 1,087.9 1,369.1
$3,985.0 1,848.7 2,136.4
4,411.9 2,051.4 2,360.5
10.7 11.0 10.5
12.4 13.5 11.5
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
MACHINERY, INK, CONSUMABLES AND SUBSTRATES Given the speed of product development and the rapid pace of technology transfer, most of the key developments for printing presses and processes over the next five years will be seen in all of the main regions of the world, despite the fact that the rate of adoption varies between developed and developing regions.
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Table 8 Canada: Printing Machinery (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
79.9 34.9 51.6 34.7 88.4 21.2 3.5 33.7 31.2 43.1 37.8
% change 2005-06 -0.7 -3.2 -0.1 -3.4 10.3 -12.5 -27.0 15.4 14.9 19.0 6.3
1.5 36.2 35.9 496.0
-15.0 7.4 6.3 4.4
2006
73.2 30.7 54.1 32.7 93.1 14.7 1.8 72.6 48.0 42.1 43.1
% change 2006-11 -8.4 -12.2 4.7 -5.9 5.3 -30.7 -47.8 115.6 53.8 -2.4 14.3
0.8 42.3 35.0 541.1
-46.7 16.8 -2.4 9.1
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 9 Canada: Printing Machinery (C$ millions, current) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
90.4 39.5 58.5 39.3 100.1 24.0 4.0 38.1 35.3 48.8 42.7
% change 2005-06 -7.2 -9.5 -6.7 -9.7 3.1 -18.2 -31.8 7.8 7.4 11.2 -0.7
1.7 41.0 40.6 561.4
-20.6 0.4 -0.7 -2.5
2006
82.8 34.7 61.2 37.0 105.4 16.6 2.1 82.2 54.3 47.6 48.8
% change 2006-11 -8.4 -12.2 4.7 -5.9 5.3 -30.7 -47.8 115.6 53.8 -2.4 14.3
0.9 47.9 39.7 612.4
-46.7 16.8 -2.4 9.1
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 10 Canada: Printing Consumables (US$ million, current prices)
Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
2006 9.1 81.8 53.7 28.1 4.9 22.5 118.3
% change 2005-06 -0.8 28.0 30.5 23.6 16.2 3.3 19.4
2011 6.2 103.2 81.6 21.7 6.1 28.0 143.5
% change 2006-11 -31.8 26.2 51.9 -22.9 24.0 24.0 21.2
Source: Pira International Ltd Table 11 Canada: Printing Consumables (C$ million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
2006 10.3 92.6 60.8 31.8 5.6 25.5 134.0
% change 2005-06 -7.3 19.6 22.0 15.5 8.6 -3.5 11.6
2011 7.0 116.8 92.3 24.5 6.9 31.6 162.4
% change 2006-11 -31.8 26.2 51.9 -22.9 24.0 24.0 21.2
Source: Pira International Ltd Table 12 Canada: Printing Inks (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 85.8 68.7 107.3 81.8 170.2 21.4 3.5 50.1 15.1 4.3 608.2
% change 2005-06 9.5 5.7 7.4 7.2 9.6 1.1 -15.6 26.5 18.6 7.8 9.3
2011 94.7 67.3 116.3 88.1 196.8 19.4 1.7 115.2 30.8 4.8 735.2
Source: Pira International Ltd
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% change 2006-11 10.4 -2.0 8.4 7.8 15.6 -9.1 -52.8 130.1 103.2 10.6 20.9
Table 13 Canada: Printing Inks (C$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 97.2 77.7 121.4 92.5 192.7 24.2 4.0 56.7 17.1 4.9 688.4
% change 2005-06 2.3 -1.2 0.3 0.2 2.4 -5.5 -21.2 18.2 10.8 0.8 2.1
2011 107.2 76.2 131.6 99.8 222.8 22.0 1.9 130.4 34.8 5.4 832.1
% change 2006-11 10.4 -2.0 8.4 7.8 15.6 -9.1 -52.8 130.1 103.2 10.6 20.9
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 14 Canada: Printing Substrates (US$ million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
226.8 354.9 334.6 432.1 357.4
% change 2005-06 5.1 6.2 2.5 8.6 10.3
1,971.9 99.1 552.4 284.9 652.1 5,266.0
2006
238.2 413.5 365.1 493.3 362.7
% change 2006-11 5.0 16.5 9.1 14.2 1.5
6.4 3.4 8.4 7.9
2,242.7 114.8 662.2 341.5
13.7 15.9 19.9 19.9
7.6 6.9
755.8 5,989.8
15.9 13.7
Source: Pira International Ltd
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2011
Table 15 Canada: Printing Substrates (C$ million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
256.7 401.6 378.7 489.1 404.5
% change 2005-06 -1.7 -0.7 -4.2 1.5 3.1
2,231.9 112.1 625.2 322.4 738.1 5,960.4
2006
269.6 468.0 413.2 558.4 410.5
% change 2006-11 5.0 16.5 9.1 14.2 1.5
-0.5 -3.4 1.3 0.8
2,538.5 130.0 749.6 386.5
13.7 15.9 19.9 19.9
0.6 -0.1
855.4 6,779.7
15.9 13.7
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
For more comprehensive information about the global printing industry, please refer to the three PRIMIR reports “World Wide Market for Print” (Phase I, Phase II and Final). Visit http://www.primir.org/past_primir_studies.html for descriptions, tables of contents, and ordering information.
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1899 Preston White Drive, Reston, Virginia 20191 (703) 264-7200 © PRIMIR/NPES 2008
INTRODUCTION In today’s global business, print faces constant change and multinational challenges. In order to react intelligently and be proactive printing industry business leaders urgently need worldwide data to reference when making internationally-based business decisions. PRIMIR recently released a series of three reports on the “World Wide Market for Print.” Pira International was commissioned to investigate the key global print markets. This study identified 51 country markets that make up 99% of the global commercial printing industry. The series of reports detail social and economic climate in each region, demographic profiles, advertising trends, internet usage/adoption, print markets and applications, print process share, and market sizing for presses, equipment, consumables and paper. Forecasts are provided through 2011. The report that follows is a summary of data and information from all three reports pertaining to this specific country. Note: Unless otherwise noted, the data is presented in U.S. Dollars, taking into account forecast rates for GDP growth and inflation, constant 2006 exchange rates have been applied. The final report includes a database where statistics are provided for both current and constant U.S. Dollars as well as in local currency (both current and constant).
CANADA - OVERVIEW Canada has been a confederation since 1867. It is a constitutional monarchy and a member of the British Commonwealth. Canada’s constitution provides for a bicameral parliament consisting of an elected House of Commons (308 members) and an appointed Senate (105 members). Legislative power lies with the House of Commons, whose members are elected for a term of five years. However, the prime minister may request the governor general to dissolve the parliament at any point during this five year term.
At present the Senate members are appointed by the governor general on the advice of the prime minister, but discussions are under way to change this to an electoral system. Canada is divided into ten provinces and three territories, with each province having a lieutenant-governor who is appointed by the governor general. The current Prime Minister Stephen Harper of the Conservative Party was elected in February of this year, ending 12 years of Liberal rule in the country.
With an area of 9,970,610 sq km (3,849,674 sq miles), Canada is the second largest country in the world. The current population is approximately 32.5 million, most of whom live 1
in the south east of the country, principally in Toronto (4.7 million) and Montreal (3.4 million). The capital is Ottawa with 1.1 million inhabitants. The second largest province in Canada, Quebec, is French-speaking.
Literacy levels compare very favorably with other developed economies, ranked fifth in the world with 100% of the population completing primary level education and 98% completing secondary level education in 2003. Life expectancy is now 81 years. Overall GDP for 2006 is projected at US$1.26 billion with GDP per capita standing at US$38,676.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS The 2007 population of Canada is estimated at 32.5 million, 45.5% of whom are male. Population projections point to an increase in the populace of approximately 10.3 million in the next 45 years, taking the number of Canadian inhabitants up to 42.8 million by 2050, an increase of 31.7%. The median age of the population today is 38.9 years and this is forecast to increase to 45.2 years by 2050, with the proportion of 15-64 year-olds falling from 68.4% in 2000 to 58.7% by 2050.
Figure 1 Canada: Long-term Demographic Trends by Age Group, 2000-2050 0-14
15-64
65+
Total population
80
45,000 42,844 40,000
70
37,797 35,000
% population
30,689
30,000
50 68.4
25,000
40
63.7 20,000 58.7
30 20.9
19.0 20
12.6
15.7
15.4
25.6
15,000 10,000
10
5,000 0
0 2000
2025
Source: United Nations 2
2050
Total population ('000s)
60
ECONOMIC TRENDS Canada is predominantly an urban services-dependant economy with a large manufacturing base. It has abundant natural resources including oil and natural gas, metals, minerals, wildlife, fish and forests. Its major exports include crude oil, chemicals, natural gas, motor vehicles and parts, aircraft and components, machinery, fish, forestry products and minerals.
In 2006 total GDP in Canada is projected to reach US$1.36 billion, with GDP rising by 3.1%. GDP growth in 2005 was at 3.1% and a figure of 3.0% is forecast for 2007. Inflation stood at 3.1% in 2005 and is projected to fall to 3.0% in 2006 and 1.7% in 2007.
The Canadian economy is characterized by its extremely close relationship with the USA. Approximately 85% of Canadian products are destined for the USA and 59% of its imports come from the USA. The 1994 NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) between the US, Canada and Mexico liberalized regulations and reduced tariffs in many areas, increasing trade between these countries dramatically.
Canada has a strong macroeconomic framework which supports its robust economic performance. Growth is strong and consistent, business investment is healthy, the currency is strong, inflation is under control and labor market conditions are generally good with positive employment and productivity growth. The outlook for the economy remains favorable. Risks to be aware of include low personal savings rates and the fiscal pressures of an aging population.
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Table 1 Canada: Key Economic Indicators, 2003-2007 Indicator Population ('000s) Exchange rate (=US$1) Purchasing power parity (=US$1) GDP (local currency, millions, current prices) GDP (local currency, millions, constant 2000 prices) GDP (current, US$ million) GDP, PPP (current, US$ million) GDP per capita (US$) GDP per capita, PPP (US$) GDP growth (%) GDP deflator (%) Consumer price index (2000=100) Imports (US$ million) Exports (US$ million)
2003 31,627 1.40 1.21 1,216,191 1,152,529
2004 31,946 1.30 1.22 1,290,185 1,185,952
2005 32,268 1.21 1.22 1,368,726 1,220,345
2006p 32,546 1.15 1.22 1,452,714 1,258,175
2007f 32,826 1.16 1.22 1,521,111 1,295,920
870,477 991,397 27,523 31,347 2.0 3.3 107.7 245,021 272,739
993,443 1,047,304 31,098 32,784 2.9 3.1 109.7 279,912 304,453
1,130,208 1,104,701 35,026 34,235 2.9 3.1 112.2 331,565 359,399
1,258,729 1,163,953 38,676 35,764 3.1 3.0 115.5 n/a n/a
1,309,191 1,224,923 39,883 37,316 3.0 1.7 117.4 n/a n/a
Note: p=projected; f=forecast Source: Pira International, Ltd calculations from the United Nations (population data), International Monetary Fund (economic data)
THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT There were 100 daily newspapers in print in Canada in 2004, two of which are nationals with the remainder regional/local titles. Total circulation was 5.35 million, up 3.5% from 2000. The top selling daily is the Toronto Star which has a circulation of 470,000 million, followed by The Globe Mail with a circulation of 328,000. In 2004, newspaper advertising revenue was US$2.75 million, up from $2.21 billion in 2001 but down on 2000 levels of US$2.93 billion.
In 2004 there were 1,114 consumer magazine titles in Canada, an increase of 15.9% compared to 2001, with some 64.7% of revenue derived from advertising and 35.3% from sales. Major magazine publishers include Rogers Media and Transcontinental Media. Revenue from magazine advertising was US$585 billion, up from US$411 million in 2001 but down on 2000 levels of US$641 million.
Total print advertising expenditure in Canada amounted to US$7,418 million in 2004, up 50% from 1995. Tobacco advertising, advertising of OTC drugs, alcohol and advertising to children are all restricted.
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Table 2 Canada: Advertising and Print Media Trends, 2000-2004 Advertising media Above-the-line advertising (media sales) Total advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper advertising expenditure (US$ million) Magazine advertising expenditure (US$ million) Outdoor advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print's share of advertising expenditure (%) Internet advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper trends Number of daily titles Dailies' circulation ('000s)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
6,459.0 3,781.1 2,932.0 640.9 208.2 58.5 74.1
5,504.9 2,835.9 2,211.7 410.9 213.3 51.5 62.6
5,558.8 2,814.0 2,191.0 418.3 204.7 50.6 112.2
6,606.2 3,223.4 2,472.4 512.2 238.8 48.8 169.2
7,418.7 3,607.3 2,748.6 585.1 273.6 48.6 226.7
104 5,167
104 5,185
102 5,005
102 4,930
100 5,350
941 n/a
961 n/a
1,000 n/a
1,032 525
1,114 n/a
Magazine trends Number of consumer titles Number of business-to-business titles
Source: World Advertising Trends, World Press Trends, World Magazine Trends
In 2005 Internet usage among the population stood at 68%, up from 41% in 2000. Broadband penetration stood at 21% of the population during 2005.
Figure 2 Canada: Trends in Internet Usage, 2000-2005 Internet usage (% population)
Broadband penetration (%)
70
67.9 61.5
60
55.7 50.4
% population
50 40
45.7 41.4
30 20 8.9
10
12.1
15.1
17.6
21.0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: Pira International Ltd calculations from Internetworldstats.com (www.Internetworldstats.com); OECD (broadband penetration)
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2005
PRINT MARKET TRENDS The Canadian print market was valued at C$17.5 billion (US$14.5 billion) in 2005, projected to grow by 4.3% in absolute terms in 2006 and by 1.3% in real terms, excluding the impact of inflation. During the period 2001-2006, the market grew at an average annual rate of 5% in absolute terms and 2.3% in real terms.
Table 3 Canada: Print Market Trends, 2001-2006
C$ million, current prices C$ million, constant 2005 prices US$ million, current prices
2001
2005
2006p
18,264.1
% change 20052006 4.3
CAGR (%) 20012006 5.0
14,295.4
17,514.0
15,858.6
17,514.0
17,741.7
1.3
2.3
$9,232.7
$14,462.0
$15,825.3
9.4
11.4
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Flexo represents the single largest segment of the Canadian market across print processes, with flexo printing output valued at C$4.82 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 4.4% in absolute terms in 2006. Heatset web offset is the single largest component of offset litho printing with output at C$3.10 billion. The sheetfed market is valued at C$2.43 billion, and coldset web offset is losing market share. The fastest growing areas of the market are Electrophotography and inkjet at C$1.40 billion and C$451 million respectively in 2005, with screen and particularly letterpress losing market share.
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Table 4 Canada: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (C$ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
6,546.8 2,063.6 4,483.2 1,859.1 2,624.1 2,012.0 3,905.4 622.0 199.2 656.6 220.5 132.9 14,295.4
7,551.5 2,433.7 5,117.8 2,016.8 3,101.0 2,367.7 4,820.0 654.1 130.5 1,397.5 450.7 142.1 17,514.0
7,739.8 2,538.1 5,201.7 2,030.6 3,171.1 2,417.2 5,032.9 630.3 104.8 1,684.0 507.9 147.2 18,264.1
% change 2005-2006 2.5 4.3 1.6 0.7 2.3 2.1 4.4 -3.6 -19.6 20.5 12.7 3.6 4.3
CAGR (%) 2001-2006 3.4 4.2 3.0 1.8 3.9 3.7 5.2 0.3 -12.1 20.7 18.2 2.1 5.0
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 5 Canada: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
$4,228.3 1,332.8 2,895.5 1,200.7 1,694.8 1,299.4 2,522.3 401.7 128.7 424.1 142.4 85.8 $9,232.7
$6,235.6 2,009.6 4,226.0 1,665.4 2,560.6 1,955.1 3,980.1 540.1 107.7 1,154.0 372.1 117.4 $14,462.0
$6,706.4 2,199.2 4,507.2 1,759.5 2,747.7 2,094.4 4,360.8 546.1 90.8 1,459.1 440.1 127.5 $15,825.3
% change 2005-2006 7.6 9.4 6.7 5.7 7.3 7.1 9.6 1.1 -15.7 26.4 18.3 8.7 9.4
CAGR (%) 2001-2006 9.7 10.5 9.3 7.9 10.1 10.0 11.6 6.3 -6.7 28.0 25.3 8.2 11.4
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Across end-use areas, packaging represents the single largest product sector with sales of C$4.83 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 5.5% in 2006. Other key growth areas during 2006 will include advertising sectors such as direct mail and inserts, as well as magazines and labels. Relatively low growth is seen in areas such as catalogs, business forms and directories.
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Table 6 Canada: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (C$ million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p 744.3 1,488.3 368.6 1,779.1 1,204.6 1,390.6 844.9
% change 20052006 3.3 0.7 1.6 5.6 3.0 5.9 4.6
CAGR (%) 20012006 3.7 2.3 1.8 5.8 4.1 6.3 4.7
621.9 1,326.8 336.6 1,343.1 983.2 1,024.7 671.6
720.2 1,478.2 362.8 1,684.7 1,169.0 1,313.0 808.0
440.0 73.2 331.8 401.1 301.2 3,804.3 2,106.0 815.0 883.4 687.8 1,948.3 14,295.4
566.0 91.5 399.0 458.1 341.5 4,826.0 2,511.9 1,044.8 1,269.2 849.4 2,446.6 17,514.0
599.9 96.5 417.2 465.8 355.3 5,091.8 2,644.8 1,115.5 1,331.5 890.2 2,527.1 18,264.1
6.0 5.4 4.6 1.7 4.1 5.5 5.3 6.8 4.9 4.8 3.3 4.3
6.4 5.7 4.7 3.0 3.4 6.0 4.7 6.5 8.6 5.3 5.3 5.0
3,804.3 1,684.5 2,119.9
4,826.0 2,238.8 2,587.2
5,091.8 2,367.6 2,724.3
5.5 5.8 5.3
6.0 7.0 5.1
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 7 Canada: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Product
2001
2005
2006p
Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total
$401.6 856.9 217.4 867.4 635.0 661.8 433.8
$594.7 1,220.6 299.6 1,391.1 965.3 1,084.2 667.2
$644.9 1,289.6 319.4 1,541.5 1,043.7 1,204.9 732.1
% change 20052006 8.4 5.7 6.6 10.8 8.1 11.1 9.7
CAGR (%) 2001-2006 9.9 8.5 8.0 12.2 10.4 12.7 11.0
284.1 47.3 214.3 259.0 194.5 2,457.0 1,360.1 526.4 570.5 444.2 1,258.3 $9,232.7
467.3 75.6 329.5 378.2 282.0 3,985.0 2,074.2 862.8 1,048.1 701.4 2,020.2 $14,462.0
519.8 83.6 361.5 403.6 307.9 4,411.9 2,291.7 966.5 1,153.7 771.3 2,189.7 $15,825.3
11.2 10.6 9.7 6.7 9.2 10.7 10.5 12.0 10.1 10.0 8.4 9.4
12.8 12.1 11.0 9.3 9.6 12.4 11.0 12.9 15.1 11.7 11.7 11.4
Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
$2,457.0 1,087.9 1,369.1
$3,985.0 1,848.7 2,136.4
4,411.9 2,051.4 2,360.5
10.7 11.0 10.5
12.4 13.5 11.5
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
MACHINERY, INK, CONSUMABLES AND SUBSTRATES Given the speed of product development and the rapid pace of technology transfer, most of the key developments for printing presses and processes over the next five years will be seen in all of the main regions of the world, despite the fact that the rate of adoption varies between developed and developing regions.
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Table 8 Canada: Printing Machinery (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
79.9 34.9 51.6 34.7 88.4 21.2 3.5 33.7 31.2 43.1 37.8
% change 2005-06 -0.7 -3.2 -0.1 -3.4 10.3 -12.5 -27.0 15.4 14.9 19.0 6.3
1.5 36.2 35.9 496.0
-15.0 7.4 6.3 4.4
2006
73.2 30.7 54.1 32.7 93.1 14.7 1.8 72.6 48.0 42.1 43.1
% change 2006-11 -8.4 -12.2 4.7 -5.9 5.3 -30.7 -47.8 115.6 53.8 -2.4 14.3
0.8 42.3 35.0 541.1
-46.7 16.8 -2.4 9.1
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 9 Canada: Printing Machinery (C$ millions, current) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
90.4 39.5 58.5 39.3 100.1 24.0 4.0 38.1 35.3 48.8 42.7
% change 2005-06 -7.2 -9.5 -6.7 -9.7 3.1 -18.2 -31.8 7.8 7.4 11.2 -0.7
1.7 41.0 40.6 561.4
-20.6 0.4 -0.7 -2.5
2006
82.8 34.7 61.2 37.0 105.4 16.6 2.1 82.2 54.3 47.6 48.8
% change 2006-11 -8.4 -12.2 4.7 -5.9 5.3 -30.7 -47.8 115.6 53.8 -2.4 14.3
0.9 47.9 39.7 612.4
-46.7 16.8 -2.4 9.1
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 10 Canada: Printing Consumables (US$ million, current prices)
Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
2006 9.1 81.8 53.7 28.1 4.9 22.5 118.3
% change 2005-06 -0.8 28.0 30.5 23.6 16.2 3.3 19.4
2011 6.2 103.2 81.6 21.7 6.1 28.0 143.5
% change 2006-11 -31.8 26.2 51.9 -22.9 24.0 24.0 21.2
Source: Pira International Ltd Table 11 Canada: Printing Consumables (C$ million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
2006 10.3 92.6 60.8 31.8 5.6 25.5 134.0
% change 2005-06 -7.3 19.6 22.0 15.5 8.6 -3.5 11.6
2011 7.0 116.8 92.3 24.5 6.9 31.6 162.4
% change 2006-11 -31.8 26.2 51.9 -22.9 24.0 24.0 21.2
Source: Pira International Ltd Table 12 Canada: Printing Inks (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 85.8 68.7 107.3 81.8 170.2 21.4 3.5 50.1 15.1 4.3 608.2
% change 2005-06 9.5 5.7 7.4 7.2 9.6 1.1 -15.6 26.5 18.6 7.8 9.3
2011 94.7 67.3 116.3 88.1 196.8 19.4 1.7 115.2 30.8 4.8 735.2
Source: Pira International Ltd
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% change 2006-11 10.4 -2.0 8.4 7.8 15.6 -9.1 -52.8 130.1 103.2 10.6 20.9
Table 13 Canada: Printing Inks (C$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 97.2 77.7 121.4 92.5 192.7 24.2 4.0 56.7 17.1 4.9 688.4
% change 2005-06 2.3 -1.2 0.3 0.2 2.4 -5.5 -21.2 18.2 10.8 0.8 2.1
2011 107.2 76.2 131.6 99.8 222.8 22.0 1.9 130.4 34.8 5.4 832.1
% change 2006-11 10.4 -2.0 8.4 7.8 15.6 -9.1 -52.8 130.1 103.2 10.6 20.9
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 14 Canada: Printing Substrates (US$ million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
226.8 354.9 334.6 432.1 357.4
% change 2005-06 5.1 6.2 2.5 8.6 10.3
1,971.9 99.1 552.4 284.9 652.1 5,266.0
2006
238.2 413.5 365.1 493.3 362.7
% change 2006-11 5.0 16.5 9.1 14.2 1.5
6.4 3.4 8.4 7.9
2,242.7 114.8 662.2 341.5
13.7 15.9 19.9 19.9
7.6 6.9
755.8 5,989.8
15.9 13.7
Source: Pira International Ltd
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2011
Table 15 Canada: Printing Substrates (C$ million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
256.7 401.6 378.7 489.1 404.5
% change 2005-06 -1.7 -0.7 -4.2 1.5 3.1
2,231.9 112.1 625.2 322.4 738.1 5,960.4
2006
269.6 468.0 413.2 558.4 410.5
% change 2006-11 5.0 16.5 9.1 14.2 1.5
-0.5 -3.4 1.3 0.8
2,538.5 130.0 749.6 386.5
13.7 15.9 19.9 19.9
0.6 -0.1
855.4 6,779.7
15.9 13.7
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
For more comprehensive information about the global printing industry, please refer to the three PRIMIR reports “World Wide Market for Print” (Phase I, Phase II and Final). Visit http://www.primir.org/past_primir_studies.html for descriptions, tables of contents, and ordering information.
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