Demand Summary - Innovative Ag Services
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected] January 12, 2016
January-16 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand (mb) Jan Jan Dec USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 95.4 90.6 88.4 Harvested 87.5 83.1 80.7 Yield 158.1 171.0 169.3
Jan USDA 15/16 88.0 80.7 168.4
Carryin Production Imports Supply
821 13829 36 14686
1232 14216 32 15479
1731 13654 30 15415
1731 13601 40 15372
Feed Exports Ethanol Other Ind Demand
5040 1920 5124 1370 13454
5315 1864 5209 1360 13748
5300 1750 5200 1380 13630
Carryout CO/Use
1232 0.092
1731 0.126
1785 0.131
Price range
$4.46
$3.70 $3.35 $3.95 $0.00 U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand (mb) Jan Jan Dec USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 76.8 83.3 83.2 Harvested 76.3 82.6 82.4 Yield 44.0 47.5 48.3
World Corn Supply/Demand (mmt) Jan Jan Dec Jan USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
132.62 991.39
174.58 1008.52
208.19 973.87
207.23 967.93
1124.01
1183.10
1182.06
1175.16
5300 1700 5200 1370 13570
570.33
582.16
596.12
594.85
949.44
975.87
970.20
966.22
1802 0.133
174.58 0.184
207.23 0.212
211.85 0.218
208.93 0.216
$3.30 $3.90 Jan USDA 15/16 82.7 81.8 48.0
ARG Prod: 15/16 BRZ Prod: 15/16
25.6; unch 81.5; unch
World Soybean Supply/Demand (mmt) Jan Jan Dec Jan USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
Carryin Production Imports Supply
141 3358 72 3570
92 3927 33 4052
191 3981 30 4203
191 3930 30 4150
56.22 282.87
62.36 318.80
77.66 320.11
76.93 319.01
339.09
381.16
397.77
395.94
Crush Exports Seed Residual Demand
1734 1638 97 10 3478
1873 1843 96 49 3861
1890 1715 92 41 3738
1890 1690 92 39 3711
241.31
262.67
273.73
275.35
275.73
300.50
312.32
314.04
Carryout CO/Use
92 0.026
191 0.049
465 0.124
440 0.119
62.36 0.226
76.93 0.256
82.58 0.264
79.28 0.252
Price range
$13.00
$10.10
$8.15 $9.65
$8.05 $9.55
Brazil Prod: 15/16 Argentina Prod: 15/16
100.0; unch 57.0; unch
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. The FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc.
INTL FCStone Financial Inc.–FCM Division Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected]
January 12, 2016
January-16 U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand (mb) Jan Jan Dec USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 56.2 56.8 54.6 Harvested 45.3 46.4 47.1 Yield 47.1 43.7 43.6
Jan USDA 15/16 54.6 47.1 43.6
Carryin Production Imports Supply
718 2135 173 3026
590 2026 149 2766
753 2052 125 2930
752 2052 120 2924
Food Exports Seed Feed/Res Demand
955 1176 77 228 2436
958 854 81 120 2014
967 800 72 180 2019
Carryout CO/Use
590 0.242
752 0.373
Price range
$6.87
$5.99
World Wheat Supply/Demand (mmt) Jan Jan Dec Jan USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
177.04 715.35
194.03 725.91
212.07 734.93
212.79 735.39
892.39
919.94
947.00
948.18
967 800 66 150 1983
698.36
707.15
717.14
716.14
911 0.451
941 0.475
194.03 0.278
212.79 0.301
229.86 0.321
232.04 0.324
$4.80 $5.20
$4.90 $5.10
AUS Prod: 15/16 CAN Prod: 15/16
26.0; unch 27.6; unch
Summary: lower-than-expected production, stocks numbers give grain market a boost Corn: corn harvested acreage unchanged this month despite a 400k-acre loss in plantings, though yields are cut by 0.9 bushels per acre to 168.4 bpa, thus production falls by 53 million bushels from December. Imports rise 10 mbu while exports lose 50 mbu this month on a slow pace, other usage also down 10 mbu, meaning overall corn carryout is actually up 17 mbu this month to just over 1.8 billion bushels. Dec stocks figure does come in below estimates and right in line with last year, however. In world S&D, global 2015/16 carryin falls a million tonnes while production drops a full 6 MMT, partly thanks to the U.S. crop loss but mostly due to a massive 4 MMT cut in South Africa (to just 8 MMT). Overall world ending stocks down 3 MMT.
Beans: U.S. planted acreage falls by half a million acres while harvested area loses 600k ac, and yields lose 0.3 bpa as well; production is down 51 mbu in total. On the demand side, exports lose 25 mbu but that still leads to a 25 mbu cut in carryout overall (to 440 mbu), against trade expectations for a steady figure there. World carryin down slightly for 2015/16 while production loses 1.1 MMT (due to the U.S. loss); increased demand contributes even more to the 3.3 MMT global ending stocks drop due to higher usage rates in Argentina and China.
Wheat: U.S. wheat imports down 5 mbu with seed usage down 6 mbu; the bulk of the carryout change (up 30 mbu to a robust 941 mbu thus month) comes from a 30 mbu reduction in feed demand. Global '15/16 production up slightly due to increases in Pakistan and Russia, with lower usage also contributing to an overall carryout up 2.2 MMT this month.
Results: massive (near-record) fund-shorted market looking for any reason to rally, and found it at least temporarily. U.S. and world S&D's still plenty over-supplied, but respite comes this month at least...
INTL FCStone Financial Inc.–FCM Division Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
January-16 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand (mb) Jan Jan Dec USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 95.4 90.6 88.4 Harvested 87.5 83.1 80.7 Yield 158.1 171.0 169.3
Jan USDA 15/16 88.0 80.7 168.4
Carryin Production Imports Supply
821 13829 36 14686
1232 14216 32 15479
1731 13654 30 15415
1731 13601 40 15372
Feed Exports Ethanol Other Ind Demand
5040 1920 5124 1370 13454
5315 1864 5209 1360 13748
5300 1750 5200 1380 13630
Carryout CO/Use
1232 0.092
1731 0.126
1785 0.131
Price range
$4.46
$3.70 $3.35 $3.95 $0.00 U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand (mb) Jan Jan Dec USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 76.8 83.3 83.2 Harvested 76.3 82.6 82.4 Yield 44.0 47.5 48.3
World Corn Supply/Demand (mmt) Jan Jan Dec Jan USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
132.62 991.39
174.58 1008.52
208.19 973.87
207.23 967.93
1124.01
1183.10
1182.06
1175.16
5300 1700 5200 1370 13570
570.33
582.16
596.12
594.85
949.44
975.87
970.20
966.22
1802 0.133
174.58 0.184
207.23 0.212
211.85 0.218
208.93 0.216
$3.30 $3.90 Jan USDA 15/16 82.7 81.8 48.0
ARG Prod: 15/16 BRZ Prod: 15/16
25.6; unch 81.5; unch
World Soybean Supply/Demand (mmt) Jan Jan Dec Jan USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
Carryin Production Imports Supply
141 3358 72 3570
92 3927 33 4052
191 3981 30 4203
191 3930 30 4150
56.22 282.87
62.36 318.80
77.66 320.11
76.93 319.01
339.09
381.16
397.77
395.94
Crush Exports Seed Residual Demand
1734 1638 97 10 3478
1873 1843 96 49 3861
1890 1715 92 41 3738
1890 1690 92 39 3711
241.31
262.67
273.73
275.35
275.73
300.50
312.32
314.04
Carryout CO/Use
92 0.026
191 0.049
465 0.124
440 0.119
62.36 0.226
76.93 0.256
82.58 0.264
79.28 0.252
Price range
$13.00
$10.10
$8.15 $9.65
$8.05 $9.55
Brazil Prod: 15/16 Argentina Prod: 15/16
100.0; unch 57.0; unch
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. The FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc.
INTL FCStone Financial Inc.–FCM Division Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected]
January 12, 2016
January-16 U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand (mb) Jan Jan Dec USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 56.2 56.8 54.6 Harvested 45.3 46.4 47.1 Yield 47.1 43.7 43.6
Jan USDA 15/16 54.6 47.1 43.6
Carryin Production Imports Supply
718 2135 173 3026
590 2026 149 2766
753 2052 125 2930
752 2052 120 2924
Food Exports Seed Feed/Res Demand
955 1176 77 228 2436
958 854 81 120 2014
967 800 72 180 2019
Carryout CO/Use
590 0.242
752 0.373
Price range
$6.87
$5.99
World Wheat Supply/Demand (mmt) Jan Jan Dec Jan USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
177.04 715.35
194.03 725.91
212.07 734.93
212.79 735.39
892.39
919.94
947.00
948.18
967 800 66 150 1983
698.36
707.15
717.14
716.14
911 0.451
941 0.475
194.03 0.278
212.79 0.301
229.86 0.321
232.04 0.324
$4.80 $5.20
$4.90 $5.10
AUS Prod: 15/16 CAN Prod: 15/16
26.0; unch 27.6; unch
Summary: lower-than-expected production, stocks numbers give grain market a boost Corn: corn harvested acreage unchanged this month despite a 400k-acre loss in plantings, though yields are cut by 0.9 bushels per acre to 168.4 bpa, thus production falls by 53 million bushels from December. Imports rise 10 mbu while exports lose 50 mbu this month on a slow pace, other usage also down 10 mbu, meaning overall corn carryout is actually up 17 mbu this month to just over 1.8 billion bushels. Dec stocks figure does come in below estimates and right in line with last year, however. In world S&D, global 2015/16 carryin falls a million tonnes while production drops a full 6 MMT, partly thanks to the U.S. crop loss but mostly due to a massive 4 MMT cut in South Africa (to just 8 MMT). Overall world ending stocks down 3 MMT.
Beans: U.S. planted acreage falls by half a million acres while harvested area loses 600k ac, and yields lose 0.3 bpa as well; production is down 51 mbu in total. On the demand side, exports lose 25 mbu but that still leads to a 25 mbu cut in carryout overall (to 440 mbu), against trade expectations for a steady figure there. World carryin down slightly for 2015/16 while production loses 1.1 MMT (due to the U.S. loss); increased demand contributes even more to the 3.3 MMT global ending stocks drop due to higher usage rates in Argentina and China.
Wheat: U.S. wheat imports down 5 mbu with seed usage down 6 mbu; the bulk of the carryout change (up 30 mbu to a robust 941 mbu thus month) comes from a 30 mbu reduction in feed demand. Global '15/16 production up slightly due to increases in Pakistan and Russia, with lower usage also contributing to an overall carryout up 2.2 MMT this month.
Results: massive (near-record) fund-shorted market looking for any reason to rally, and found it at least temporarily. U.S. and world S&D's still plenty over-supplied, but respite comes this month at least...
INTL FCStone Financial Inc.–FCM Division Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
