Demand Summary - Innovative Ag Services
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected] February 9, 2016
February-16 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand (mb) Feb Feb Jan USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 95.4 90.6 88.0 Harvested 87.5 83.1 80.7 Yield 158.1 171.0 168.4
Feb USDA 15/16 88.0 80.7 168.4
Carryin Production Imports Supply
821 13829 36 14686
1232 14216 32 15479
1731 13601 40 15372
1731 13601 50 15382
Feed Exports Ethanol Other Ind Demand
5040 1920 5124 1370 13454
5315 1864 5209 1360 13748
5300 1700 5200 1370 13570
Carryout CO/Use
1232 0.092
1731 0.126
1802 0.133
Price range
$4.46
$3.70 $3.30 $3.90 $0.00 U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand (mb) Feb Feb Jan USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 76.8 83.3 82.7 Harvested 76.3 82.6 81.8 Yield 44.0 47.5 48.0
World Corn Supply/Demand (mmt) Feb Feb Jan Feb USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
132.75 991.38
174.79 1008.99
207.23 967.93
206.18 970.08
1124.13
1183.78
1175.16
1176.26
5300 1650 5225 1370 13545
570.33
582.25
594.85
596.65
949.34
977.61
966.22
967.45
1837 0.136
174.79 0.184
206.18 0.211
208.93 0.216
208.81 0.216
$3.35 $3.85 Feb USDA 15/16 82.7 81.8 48.0
ARG Prod: 15/16 BRZ Prod: 15/16
27.0; +1.4 84.0; +2.5
World Soybean Supply/Demand (mmt) Feb Feb Jan Feb USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
Carryin Production Imports Supply
141 3358 72 3570
92 3927 33 4052
191 3930 30 4150
191 3930 30 4150
56.22 282.86
62.43 318.80
76.93 319.01
77.08 320.51
339.08
381.23
395.94
397.59
Crush Exports Seed Residual Demand
1734 1638 97 10 3478
1873 1843 96 49 3861
1890 1690 92 39 3711
1880 1690 92 39 3701
241.31
262.67
275.35
275.86
275.73
300.50
314.04
314.52
Carryout CO/Use
92 0.026
191 0.049
440 0.119
450 0.122
62.43 0.226
77.08 0.257
79.28 0.252
80.42 0.256
Price range
$13.00
$10.10
$8.05 $9.55
$8.05 $9.55
Brazil Prod: 15/16 Argentina Prod: 15/16
100.0; unch 58.5; +1.5
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. The FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc.
INTL FCStone Financial Inc.–FCM Division Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected]
February 9, 2016
February-16 U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand (mb) Feb Feb Jan USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 56.2 56.8 54.6 Harvested 45.3 46.4 47.1 Yield 47.1 43.7 43.6
Feb USDA 15/16 54.6 47.1 43.6
Carryin Production Imports Supply
718 2135 173 3026
590 2026 149 2766
752 2052 120 2924
752 2052 120 2924
Food Exports Seed Feed/Res Demand
955 1176 77 228 2436
958 854 79 122 2014
967 800 66 150 1983
Carryout CO/Use
590 0.242
752 0.373
Price range
$6.87
$5.99
World Wheat Supply/Demand (mmt) Feb Feb Jan Feb USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
177.04 715.35
194.03 725.91
212.79 735.39
214.51 735.77
892.39
919.94
948.18
950.28
967 775 66 150 1958
698.36
705.43
716.14
711.41
941 0.475
966 0.493
194.03 0.278
214.51 0.304
232.04 0.324
238.87 0.336
$4.90 $5.10
$4.90 $5.10
AUS Prod: 15/16 CAN Prod: 15/16
26.0; unch 27.6; unch
Summary: reaction fairly muted, but some bearish takeaways to be found Corn: corn imports increased by 10 million bushels for 2015/16 while exports fall by another 50 mbu; government does rebound corn use for ethanol by 25 mbu but overall carryout increases by 35 mbu to 1.837 billion, on the high end of trade estimates coming in. World corn production rises 2.15 MMT thanks to aggressive increases in Argentina (+1.4 MMT) and Brazil (+2.5 MMT), though drought-ridden South African crop falls another million tonnes to 7.0 MMT. China feed demand increase of 2.0 MMT helps keep that ending stocks figure basically unchanged this month.
Beans: only change in the domestic S&D is a 10 mbu reduction in 2015/16 crush, carries through for a 10 mbu gain in ending stocks (to 450 mbu). World changes are also thin with a +1.5 MMT increase in Argentina mostly driving an equal gain in output and a +1.1 MMT move in ending global stocks for 2015/16.
Wheat: U.S. wheat exports fall by 25 mbu this month, carries through to a 25 mbu gain in ending stocks - also on high end of trade estimates. World balance table is interesting this month with production basically unchanged for 2015/16 (though Argentine added a half-million and Australia was interestingly steady at a robust 26.0 MMT), but both old and new-crop demand down sharply for more than a 6 MMT increase in overall ending stocks. Chinese feed demand down 3 MMT for '15/16 and overall domestic demand down 4.0 MMT.
Results: grains surprisingly hanging in there post-report despite a pretty bearish release altogether, suggesting most was priced in late last week/early this week. Wheat holding steady but not before a new contract low.
INTL FCStone Financial Inc.–FCM Division Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
February-16 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand (mb) Feb Feb Jan USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 95.4 90.6 88.0 Harvested 87.5 83.1 80.7 Yield 158.1 171.0 168.4
Feb USDA 15/16 88.0 80.7 168.4
Carryin Production Imports Supply
821 13829 36 14686
1232 14216 32 15479
1731 13601 40 15372
1731 13601 50 15382
Feed Exports Ethanol Other Ind Demand
5040 1920 5124 1370 13454
5315 1864 5209 1360 13748
5300 1700 5200 1370 13570
Carryout CO/Use
1232 0.092
1731 0.126
1802 0.133
Price range
$4.46
$3.70 $3.30 $3.90 $0.00 U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand (mb) Feb Feb Jan USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 76.8 83.3 82.7 Harvested 76.3 82.6 81.8 Yield 44.0 47.5 48.0
World Corn Supply/Demand (mmt) Feb Feb Jan Feb USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
132.75 991.38
174.79 1008.99
207.23 967.93
206.18 970.08
1124.13
1183.78
1175.16
1176.26
5300 1650 5225 1370 13545
570.33
582.25
594.85
596.65
949.34
977.61
966.22
967.45
1837 0.136
174.79 0.184
206.18 0.211
208.93 0.216
208.81 0.216
$3.35 $3.85 Feb USDA 15/16 82.7 81.8 48.0
ARG Prod: 15/16 BRZ Prod: 15/16
27.0; +1.4 84.0; +2.5
World Soybean Supply/Demand (mmt) Feb Feb Jan Feb USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
Carryin Production Imports Supply
141 3358 72 3570
92 3927 33 4052
191 3930 30 4150
191 3930 30 4150
56.22 282.86
62.43 318.80
76.93 319.01
77.08 320.51
339.08
381.23
395.94
397.59
Crush Exports Seed Residual Demand
1734 1638 97 10 3478
1873 1843 96 49 3861
1890 1690 92 39 3711
1880 1690 92 39 3701
241.31
262.67
275.35
275.86
275.73
300.50
314.04
314.52
Carryout CO/Use
92 0.026
191 0.049
440 0.119
450 0.122
62.43 0.226
77.08 0.257
79.28 0.252
80.42 0.256
Price range
$13.00
$10.10
$8.05 $9.55
$8.05 $9.55
Brazil Prod: 15/16 Argentina Prod: 15/16
100.0; unch 58.5; +1.5
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. The FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc.
INTL FCStone Financial Inc.–FCM Division Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected]
February 9, 2016
February-16 U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand (mb) Feb Feb Jan USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 56.2 56.8 54.6 Harvested 45.3 46.4 47.1 Yield 47.1 43.7 43.6
Feb USDA 15/16 54.6 47.1 43.6
Carryin Production Imports Supply
718 2135 173 3026
590 2026 149 2766
752 2052 120 2924
752 2052 120 2924
Food Exports Seed Feed/Res Demand
955 1176 77 228 2436
958 854 79 122 2014
967 800 66 150 1983
Carryout CO/Use
590 0.242
752 0.373
Price range
$6.87
$5.99
World Wheat Supply/Demand (mmt) Feb Feb Jan Feb USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
177.04 715.35
194.03 725.91
212.79 735.39
214.51 735.77
892.39
919.94
948.18
950.28
967 775 66 150 1958
698.36
705.43
716.14
711.41
941 0.475
966 0.493
194.03 0.278
214.51 0.304
232.04 0.324
238.87 0.336
$4.90 $5.10
$4.90 $5.10
AUS Prod: 15/16 CAN Prod: 15/16
26.0; unch 27.6; unch
Summary: reaction fairly muted, but some bearish takeaways to be found Corn: corn imports increased by 10 million bushels for 2015/16 while exports fall by another 50 mbu; government does rebound corn use for ethanol by 25 mbu but overall carryout increases by 35 mbu to 1.837 billion, on the high end of trade estimates coming in. World corn production rises 2.15 MMT thanks to aggressive increases in Argentina (+1.4 MMT) and Brazil (+2.5 MMT), though drought-ridden South African crop falls another million tonnes to 7.0 MMT. China feed demand increase of 2.0 MMT helps keep that ending stocks figure basically unchanged this month.
Beans: only change in the domestic S&D is a 10 mbu reduction in 2015/16 crush, carries through for a 10 mbu gain in ending stocks (to 450 mbu). World changes are also thin with a +1.5 MMT increase in Argentina mostly driving an equal gain in output and a +1.1 MMT move in ending global stocks for 2015/16.
Wheat: U.S. wheat exports fall by 25 mbu this month, carries through to a 25 mbu gain in ending stocks - also on high end of trade estimates. World balance table is interesting this month with production basically unchanged for 2015/16 (though Argentine added a half-million and Australia was interestingly steady at a robust 26.0 MMT), but both old and new-crop demand down sharply for more than a 6 MMT increase in overall ending stocks. Chinese feed demand down 3 MMT for '15/16 and overall domestic demand down 4.0 MMT.
Results: grains surprisingly hanging in there post-report despite a pretty bearish release altogether, suggesting most was priced in late last week/early this week. Wheat holding steady but not before a new contract low.
INTL FCStone Financial Inc.–FCM Division Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
