Demand Summary - Innovative Ag Services
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected] September 11, 2015
September-15 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand (mb) Sept Sept Aug USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 95.4 90.6 88.9 Harvested 87.5 83.1 81.1 Yield 158.1 171.0 168.8
Sept USDA 15/16 88.9 81.1 167.5
Carryin Production Imports Supply
821 13829 36 14686
1232 14216 30 15477
1772 13686 30 15488
1732 13585 30 15347
Feed Exports Ethanol Other Ind Demand
5036 1917 5134 1367 13454
5300 1875 5205 1365 13745
5300 1850 5250 1375 13775
Carryout CO/Use
1232 0.092
1732 0.126
1713 0.124
Price range
$4.46
$3.68 $3.35 $3.95 $0.00 U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand (mb) Sept Sept Aug USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 76.8 83.7 84.3 Harvested 76.3 83.1 83.5 Yield 44.0 47.8 46.9
World Corn Supply/Demand (mmt) Sept Sept Aug Sept USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
137.95 991.45
175.93 1007.47
197.42 985.61
197.21 978.10
1129.40
1183.40
1183.03
1175.31
5275 1850 5250 1380 13755
574.26
598.94
605.55
604.84
953.48
986.19
987.94
985.62
1592 0.116
175.93 0.185
197.21 0.200
195.09 0.197
189.69 0.192
$3.45 $4.05 Sept USDA 15/16 84.3 83.5 47.1
BRZ Prod: 14/15 ARG Prod: 14/15
84.0; +2.0 26.5; unch
World Soybean Supply/Demand (mmt) Sept Sept Aug Sept USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
Carryin Production Imports Supply
141 3358 72 3570
92 3969 33 4094
240 3916 30 4186
210 3935 30 4175
56.17 283.15
62.70 319.37
80.57 320.05
78.73 319.61
339.32
382.07
400.62
398.34
Crush Exports Seed Residual Demand
1734 1647 97 0 3478
1870 1835 98 81 3884
1860 1725 92 40 3717
1870 1725 92 38 3725
241.08
259.64
271.61
271.79
275.25
298.28
309.86
310.10
Carryout CO/Use
92 0.026
210 0.054
470 0.126
450 0.121
62.70 0.228
78.73 0.264
86.88 0.280
84.98 0.274
Price range
$13.00
$10.06
$8.40 $9.90
$8.40 $9.90
Brazil Prod: 14/15 Argentina Prod: 14/15
94.5; unch 60.8; unch
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. The FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected]
September 11, 2015
September-15 U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand (mb) Sept Sept Aug USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 56.2 56.8 56.1 Harvested 45.3 46.4 48.5 Yield 47.1 43.7 44.1
Sept USDA 15/16 56.1 48.5 44.1
Carryin Production Imports Supply
718 2135 169 3021
590 2026 149 2765
753 2136 125 3014
753 2136 125 3014
Food Exports Seed Feed/Res Demand
955 1176 77 223 2431
958 854 81 120 2013
967 925 72 200 2164
Carryout CO/Use
590 0.243
753 0.374
Price range
$6.87
$5.99
World Wheat Supply/Demand (mmt) Sept Sept Aug Sept USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
177.10 715.11
193.56 725.24
209.66 726.55
211.31 731.61
892.21
918.80
936.21
942.92
967 900 72 200 2139
698.65
707.49
714.74
716.36
850 0.393
875 0.409
193.56 0.277
211.31 0.299
221.47 0.310
226.56 0.316
$4.65 $5.55
$4.65 $5.35
AUS Prod: 15/16 CAN Prod: 15/16
26.0; unch 25.0; -1.5
Summary: bullish corn yield decline, bearish bean yield increase (though tighter stocks) Corn: old-crop exports somewhat surprisingly rise 25 million bushels, with ethanol usage up 5 mbu and other usage up 10 mbu - all piles up to a 40 mbu old-crop carryout decline (more than expected). 2015 yields cut by 1.3 bushels per acre to 167.5 bpa - about as expected - with production down 101 mbu. On demand side, feed use falls 25 mbu. All in all, adds up to a 121 mbu overall corn stocks cut. World 2015/16 production falls 7.5 million tonnes with carryout down 5.4 MMT - mostly thanks to U.S. output down 2.6 MMT and E.U. crop down 4.25 MMT.
Beans: old-crop crush and exports rise once again, at +25 and +10 mbu, respectively. New-crop crush also gains 10 mbu. Thus a 2015 yield increase (+0.2 bpa) and production increase (+19 mbu) can't overcome the demand increases, with overall stocks down 20 mbu this month - still more robust than expected. World carryin and carryout for 2015/16 both down around two million tonnes, with numbers mostly unchanged. U.S. production gains half a million tonnes but world harvest is down half a million for 2015/16.
Wheat: old-crop wheat imports and feed/residual usage both gain 5 mbu this month, so that washes out into an unchanged old-crop carryout. Only change in 2015/16 demand table is 25 mbu loss in exports, meaning overall stocks rise 25 mbu - around 10 mbu above the average trade guess. Global 2015/16 carryin up 1.7 MMT with production up 5 MMT (Canada -1.5 MMT and India -1.0 MMT, but E.U. up 6.3 MMT and RUS/UKR up a million each). Overall carryout gains around 5 MMT this month as well.
Results: split results but corn maintains strength from a bullish report on both sides of the S&D. Bean crop tentatively better but demand continues to usurp those extra supplies.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
September-15 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand (mb) Sept Sept Aug USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 95.4 90.6 88.9 Harvested 87.5 83.1 81.1 Yield 158.1 171.0 168.8
Sept USDA 15/16 88.9 81.1 167.5
Carryin Production Imports Supply
821 13829 36 14686
1232 14216 30 15477
1772 13686 30 15488
1732 13585 30 15347
Feed Exports Ethanol Other Ind Demand
5036 1917 5134 1367 13454
5300 1875 5205 1365 13745
5300 1850 5250 1375 13775
Carryout CO/Use
1232 0.092
1732 0.126
1713 0.124
Price range
$4.46
$3.68 $3.35 $3.95 $0.00 U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand (mb) Sept Sept Aug USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 76.8 83.7 84.3 Harvested 76.3 83.1 83.5 Yield 44.0 47.8 46.9
World Corn Supply/Demand (mmt) Sept Sept Aug Sept USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
137.95 991.45
175.93 1007.47
197.42 985.61
197.21 978.10
1129.40
1183.40
1183.03
1175.31
5275 1850 5250 1380 13755
574.26
598.94
605.55
604.84
953.48
986.19
987.94
985.62
1592 0.116
175.93 0.185
197.21 0.200
195.09 0.197
189.69 0.192
$3.45 $4.05 Sept USDA 15/16 84.3 83.5 47.1
BRZ Prod: 14/15 ARG Prod: 14/15
84.0; +2.0 26.5; unch
World Soybean Supply/Demand (mmt) Sept Sept Aug Sept USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
Carryin Production Imports Supply
141 3358 72 3570
92 3969 33 4094
240 3916 30 4186
210 3935 30 4175
56.17 283.15
62.70 319.37
80.57 320.05
78.73 319.61
339.32
382.07
400.62
398.34
Crush Exports Seed Residual Demand
1734 1647 97 0 3478
1870 1835 98 81 3884
1860 1725 92 40 3717
1870 1725 92 38 3725
241.08
259.64
271.61
271.79
275.25
298.28
309.86
310.10
Carryout CO/Use
92 0.026
210 0.054
470 0.126
450 0.121
62.70 0.228
78.73 0.264
86.88 0.280
84.98 0.274
Price range
$13.00
$10.06
$8.40 $9.90
$8.40 $9.90
Brazil Prod: 14/15 Argentina Prod: 14/15
94.5; unch 60.8; unch
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. The FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected]
September 11, 2015
September-15 U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand (mb) Sept Sept Aug USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 56.2 56.8 56.1 Harvested 45.3 46.4 48.5 Yield 47.1 43.7 44.1
Sept USDA 15/16 56.1 48.5 44.1
Carryin Production Imports Supply
718 2135 169 3021
590 2026 149 2765
753 2136 125 3014
753 2136 125 3014
Food Exports Seed Feed/Res Demand
955 1176 77 223 2431
958 854 81 120 2013
967 925 72 200 2164
Carryout CO/Use
590 0.243
753 0.374
Price range
$6.87
$5.99
World Wheat Supply/Demand (mmt) Sept Sept Aug Sept USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
177.10 715.11
193.56 725.24
209.66 726.55
211.31 731.61
892.21
918.80
936.21
942.92
967 900 72 200 2139
698.65
707.49
714.74
716.36
850 0.393
875 0.409
193.56 0.277
211.31 0.299
221.47 0.310
226.56 0.316
$4.65 $5.55
$4.65 $5.35
AUS Prod: 15/16 CAN Prod: 15/16
26.0; unch 25.0; -1.5
Summary: bullish corn yield decline, bearish bean yield increase (though tighter stocks) Corn: old-crop exports somewhat surprisingly rise 25 million bushels, with ethanol usage up 5 mbu and other usage up 10 mbu - all piles up to a 40 mbu old-crop carryout decline (more than expected). 2015 yields cut by 1.3 bushels per acre to 167.5 bpa - about as expected - with production down 101 mbu. On demand side, feed use falls 25 mbu. All in all, adds up to a 121 mbu overall corn stocks cut. World 2015/16 production falls 7.5 million tonnes with carryout down 5.4 MMT - mostly thanks to U.S. output down 2.6 MMT and E.U. crop down 4.25 MMT.
Beans: old-crop crush and exports rise once again, at +25 and +10 mbu, respectively. New-crop crush also gains 10 mbu. Thus a 2015 yield increase (+0.2 bpa) and production increase (+19 mbu) can't overcome the demand increases, with overall stocks down 20 mbu this month - still more robust than expected. World carryin and carryout for 2015/16 both down around two million tonnes, with numbers mostly unchanged. U.S. production gains half a million tonnes but world harvest is down half a million for 2015/16.
Wheat: old-crop wheat imports and feed/residual usage both gain 5 mbu this month, so that washes out into an unchanged old-crop carryout. Only change in 2015/16 demand table is 25 mbu loss in exports, meaning overall stocks rise 25 mbu - around 10 mbu above the average trade guess. Global 2015/16 carryin up 1.7 MMT with production up 5 MMT (Canada -1.5 MMT and India -1.0 MMT, but E.U. up 6.3 MMT and RUS/UKR up a million each). Overall carryout gains around 5 MMT this month as well.
Results: split results but corn maintains strength from a bullish report on both sides of the S&D. Bean crop tentatively better but demand continues to usurp those extra supplies.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
