2016 Nov9 Environics
Demographic Trends in GTA : A Focus on Millennials November 2016 Dr. Doug Norris SVP and Chief Demographer Emily Anderson Director of Business Development
Environics Analytics We help clients achieve their business objectives by delivering actionable customer and market insight grounded in data and analytics.
est. 2003
Founded in November 2003
Partnership with Environics Group
160 employees strong
2
Specialists in datadriven insights and target marketing
3,000+ customers across North America
#EAUC2015
Canada’s largest marketing services provider
Customer Advisory Board of 18
Some of our Clients
3
Finance & Insurance
Retail & Real Estate
Fundraising & NFP
Government
Media/Telco
Travel & Lifestyle
#EAUC2015
Outline of Presentation • Key Demographic Trends • A Look at the Generations • Housing Trends • Understanding Millennial Lifestyles
4
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Key Demographic Trends
5
6
#EAUC2015
Slightly lower growth in recent years 5 Year Census Growth, GTA Population
9.8
10.0
9.3
Households
10.4
10.2 9.0 7.4
7.6
%
1996-2001 161,300
2001-2006
2006-2011 Time frame
185,200 201,500 Growth in households
2.4M Households in 2016 Source: Statistics Canada various censuses; 2011-16 Environics Analytics estimates 7
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2011-2016 163,700
Components of population growth Components of Population Growth, GTA 140,000 120,000 100,000
International Migration
80,000 60,000 Natural Increase
40,000 20,000
Interprovincial Migration
0
Intraprovincial Migration
-20,000 -40,000 2001-2002
2003-2004
2005-2006
2007-2008
Source: Statistics Canada Demographic Estimates 8
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2009-2010
2011-2012
2014-2015 2013-2014
Household growth projected to decline Percentage Projected Household Growth, GTA 7.6 6.2 %
5.1
2011-2016
2016-2021
163,700
151,100 Number
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 9
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2021-2026 131,100
Similar growth across the GTA Estimated Households, 2016 Census 1Divisions
%
9.8 15.1
Durham 237,500
48.1
Toronto 1,163,100
18.7
Peel 452,100
8.3
Halton 200,600
York 366,100
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 10
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Similar growth across the GTA Estimated Households, 2016
Estimated Growth, Households 2011-2016
Census 1Divisions
%
9.8 15.1
Durham 237,500
48.1
Toronto 1,163,100
Durham
York 366,100
Peel 452,100
8.3
Halton 200,600
Toronto
Halton
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 11
9.1
York
Peel
18.7
7.3 %
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6.9 7.9 8.2
Younger, but aging population in GTA Age of Population 2016
2026 GTA
16.4
15.9
14.3
Ontario
21.6 17.0
16.4
18.1 15.2
%
Under 15
65 and over
Under 15 Age Groups
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 12
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65 and over
Future growth concentrated at older ages Growth in Household Count, ‘000s, 2016 to 2026, GTA 99 77
Total Growth 282
Count 000s 23
Under 35
89
37
35-44
-44 45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
Age Groups
434
476
542 452 Number ('000) in 2016 Total Count 2,419K
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 13
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291
225
Growth at younger and older ages Change in Number of Households (000s), GTA 2011-2016 Total 170.0K
Count 000s 48.5
2016-2021 151.1K
2021-2026 131.1K
51.8
47.6
55.8 53.3
45.8
56.2 45.9
29.9
25.9 -2.8
-1.8
24.2 -7.4
-8.6
33
-8.4
-36.7 Under 35
35-44
45-64
65-74 Age Groups
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 14
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75-84
85 and over
Growth at younger and older ages Change in Number of Households (000s), GTA 2011-2016 Total 170.0K
Count 000s 48.5
2016-2021 151.1K
2021-2026 131.1K
51.8
47.6
55.8 53.3
45.8
56.2 45.9
29.9
25.9 -2.8
-1.8
24.2 -7.4
-8.6
33
-8.4
-36.7 Under 35
35-44
45-64
65-74 Age Groups
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 15
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75-84
85 and over
Growth at younger and older ages Change in Number of Households (000s), GTA 2011-2016 Total 170.0K
Count 000s 48.5
2016-2021 151.1K
2021-2026 131.1K
51.8
47.6
55.8 53.3
45.8
56.2 45.9
29.9
25.9 -2.8
-1.8
24.2 -7.4
-8.6
33
-8.4
-36.7 Under 35
35-44
45-64
65-74 Age Groups
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 16
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75-84
85 and over
Over a third of households are couples with children Household Type, GTA, 2016
Couples without children 26% Non-family 2+ persons 5%
Couples with children 36%
One-person 22%
Loneparent 11%
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 17
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Differences in household mix across the GTA Households with Children, 2016
One-Person Households,2016
York
56.5 %
York
11.5 %
Peel
55.7
Peel
14.0
Durham
50.5
Durham
16.9
Halton
50.3
Halton
18.3
Toronto GTA
Toronto
39.6
GTA
47.1
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 18
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30.6 22.3
A culturally diverse GTA population Visible Minority Population, GTA, 2016 South Asian Chinese Black Filipino Latin American West Asian Southeast Asian Arab Other Multiple Korean Japanese
987,500 597,600 457,100 252,900 144,300 120,400 103,700 100,800 91,900 89,600 69,600 21,300
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 DemoStats 19
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Total 3M 46% of Total Population
Diversity varies across the GTA Visible Minority Population, 2016 Peel
60 %
Toronto
49
York Durham Halton
46 24 22
GTA
46
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 20
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Little change in income in Toronto CMA Index of Median Economic Family Income* 2014$, 120 100 is Average index in year 2000
Canada
110
Ontario
100
Toronto CMA
90 80 2000
2002
2004
2006
*including persons not in families Source: Statistics Canada, Income Surveys 21
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2008
2010
2012
2014
Males lag in income increases Index of Median Individual Income, Toronto CMA, 2014$ 110 100 is average index in year 2000
100
Females Total
90
Males
80 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2014 Median Income Males $35,400 Females $26,100
Source: Statistics Canada, Income Surveys 22
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2010
2012
2014
The Generations
23
Five generations Estimated Population, GTA, 2016 Count 600,000
Gen Z 1.2M
Millennials 1.9M
Gen X 1.4M
Boomers 1.6M
Pre-Boomers 0.6M
500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
Age Groups
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 DemoStats 24
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55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Millennial generation will continue to grow from immigration; Boomers on the decline Estimated and Projected Population of GTA 2016
Millions
2026
2.16 1.88 1.44
Millennials
1.42
Gen X
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 25
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1.60
1.44
Boomers
Big increase in Millennial households over next decade Household Change in the GTA 2016
2026
967,100 753,700 741,200
Count
842,900
742,800
481,500
Millennials
Gen X
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 26
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Boomers
The Millennials
27
The Millennials • Born 1981-2000 • Ages 16-35 in 2016 • 1.9M; 28% of population
28
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Many young adults continue to live with parents Young Adults Living with Parents, 2011 Toronto CMA
%
92
Canada
87 75 60 39 24
Ages 20-24
25-29
Source: Statistics Canada 2011 Census 29
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30-34
Millennial women highly educated Highest Level of Education, Toronto CMA, 2011 Millennials 69 30
Gen X 77 30
Boomers
72
76
30
32
65 32
Pre Boomers
60 32
51 29
% 39
47
Male Female Millennials Millennials
43
44
M
F Gen X Gen X
33
28
M
35
College/Trades
22
University
13
F M F Boomers Pre Boomers Boomers Pre-Boomers
Source: Environics Analytics based on 2011 National Household Survey 30
22
Total on top
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Young women now a majority in many professions Percentage of Women, Selected Occupations, Canada, 2011 (%)
35-44
53
25-34
65
Age Groups
Lawyers and notaries 55-64 23 45-54
41
25-34
51 58
Age Groups
Computer and information systems professionals 50% 55-64 28 45-54 30 35-44 24 25-34 19
45-54
50%
30
35-44
48
25-34
45-54 35-44
58
27
50%
35 39
25-34
Electrical and electronics engineers 50% 55-64 6 45-54 9 35-44 13 25-34 15
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey 31
15
Specialist Physicians 55-64
50%
35-44
Age Groups
43
Age Groups
45-54
Dentists 55-64
50%
Age Groups
Age Groups
Biologists and related scientists 55-64 30
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55
Young women now a majority in many professions Percentage of Women, Selected Occupations, Canada, 2011 (%)
43
35-44
53
25-34
65
Age Groups
Lawyers and notaries 55-64 23 45-54 35-44
41 51 58
Age Groups
Computer and information systems professionals 50% 55-64 28 45-54 30 35-44 24 25-34 19
45-54
50%
30
35-44
48
25-34
58
45-54
50%
35
35-44
39
25-34
55
Electrical and electronics engineers 50% 55-64 6
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey 32
15
Specialist Physicians 55-64 27
50%
25-34
Age Groups
50%
Age Groups
45-54
Dentists 55-64
Age Groups
Age Groups
Biologists and related scientists 55-64 30
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45-54 35-44 25-34
9 13 15
Diversity for Millennials will increase Percent Visible Minority, Toronto CMA, 2011
13
4.6
1.0 0.7
%
39
Millennials
46
Gen X
First generation
41
32
Boomers
Source: Environics Analytics based on 2011 National Household Survey 33
Second or higher generation
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Pre-Boomers
Young adults have had a decrease in income Change in Median Individual Income 2000-2014 (2014$), Toronto CMA 37.0
%
17.9 -9.3 16 and over
-17.5 25-34
-3.5
-10.6
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 and over
41,300
41,100
27,000
Age Groups 30,400
32,100
44,600
Average Median Income (2014$)
Source: Statistics Canada, Income Statistics 34
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Millennials stand out as heavy users of social media Percent of Total Population that Access Social Networking Daily, 2013
73
%
42 24 8 Millennials
Gen X
Boomers
Source: Statistics Canada, 2013 General Social Survey 35
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Pre-Boomers
Millennials have different values • They want to “make it” and be seen as making it by others; personal accomplishment, image and status matter • Have strong values and are willing to express them • Social generation: connect with people to share experiences; family is important • Less religious; More accepting of cultural diversity • Expect technology to be there and work for them • Do work that is fulfilling and challenging • Balance work/life time; flexibility in work hours
36
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More extravagant and sophisticated consumers I consider myself to be sophisticated (%)
I enjoy being extravagant (%)
I like to try new and different products (%)
39 29 27
Millennials Gen X Boomers
33 22 18 51 49 42
Source: Environics Analytics PRIZM5; Opticks Powered by Numeris RTS 37
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Value for money more important than brand loyalty I tend to pass up my favourite brand if something else is on sale (%)
Once I find a brand I like, I stick with it (%)
Millennials
40 38 33
Gen X Boomers
69 76 78
Source: Environics Analytics PRIZM5; Opticks Powered by Numeris RTS 38
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Opinions of friends are important My friends' opinions are an important source of information for me (%) I offer recommendations of products/services to other people (%)
Millennials
50 40 39
Gen X Boomers
65 66 62
Source: Environics Analytics PRIZM5; Opticks Powered by Numeris RTS 39
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Advertising a little less important Advertising is an important source of information to me (%) 'New and improved' on packages is just an advertising gimmick (%)
Millennials
29 30 35
Gen X Boomers
70 72 73
Source: Environics Analytics PRIZM5; Opticks Powered by Numeris RTS 40
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Marketing to Millennials • Millennials are a large group and will become even larger as they move into their prime earning years • They are very diverse as they transition from living at home and attending school to starting families and job • Social media is very important • Marketing to Millennial generation as a whole is limiting as it misses considerable variation within the group
41
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42
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Canada – U.S. Differences Compared to the same age group (25-34) about a decade ago U.S. Millennials have: • Lower employment rates • Lower incomes and wealth • Higher debt
43
Canadian Millennials have: • Slightly lower employment rates • Higher incomes and wealth • Similar debt level
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Generation X
44
Generation X • • • • • • •
45
Born 1966-1979 Ages 36-50 in 2016 7.2 million; 20% of population Two thirds of Gen X households have children Peak employment/earning years Oldest will be approaching retirement years in 10 years High level of education
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In contrast to Millennials, Boomers are transitioning to empty nests and retirement
46
The Boomers • • • •
Born 1946-1965 Ages 51-70 in 2016 1.6 million; 23% of population Compared to parents: – Have smaller but more complex families – Are more highly educated
• Many women have been in labour force for many years • On average, financially better off, but much variation within the generation • Expected to live an average of almost 20 years after “retirement”
47
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Increase in empty nest and living alone Household Type, Toronto CMA, 2011 Empty Nest Couple
Lives Alone
39
37 28
% 17
18
20
28
24
44 32
32
11 50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69 Age Groups
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey 48
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70-74
75+
Housing needs differ by age in older years • Pre-seniors 55-64 • Younger seniors 65-74 • Older seniors 75-84 • Oldest seniors 85 and over
49
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Growth varies by age Index of Population Growth (2016=100), GTA 400
Age 85 +
300
Age 75-84
200
Age 65-74
Index
Age 55-64
100 0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041
Source: Ontario Finance, Revised projections 50
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Decisions, decisions • Younger Seniors – Stay where we are but make home more accessible – Stay in the burbs but downsize – Condo living – Adult-lifestyle community – By the lake/ski slopes – “Back home where the livin’ is good”
• At older ages – Residences for seniors/ nursing home – Rent
51
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Housing
52
Young adults show a slight delay starting their own households Household Maintainer Rate, Toronto CMA 2001
51.8 51.5 50.4
%
2006
55.5 55.7 55.3
2011
56.0 56.0 56.2
57.7 55.5 56.8
64.2 62.4 62.5
37.9 36.4 35.9
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64 Age Groups
Source: Statistics Canada, Census data 53
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65-74
75+
Ownership rates have been constant in recent years after an increase earlier Home Ownership Rate, Toronto CMA 2001
62.2
%
42.1
66.7 67.5
2006
70.9 73.5 73.7
74.8 77.1 76
74.2 75.9 75.3
66.9
70.6 73.8
48.7 48.5
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64 Age Groups
Source: Statistics Canada, Census data 54
2011
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65-74
75+
Immigrants gradually purchase homes Home Ownership 2011 by Period of Immigration, Toronto CMA
59.3
67.0
71.3
79.7
40.3
%
2006 to 2011
2001 to 2005
1991 to 2000
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey 55
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1981 to 1990
Before 1981
Gradual shift to high-rises at older ages Dwelling Type by Age, Owners, Toronto CMA, 2011 28
10
11
14
30
27
25
34 %
38 Under age 35
22
60
62
61
55
35-54
55-64
65-74
75 +
Source: Environics Analytics based on 2011 National Household Survey 56
24
#EAUC2015
High-rise Other low-rise Single family
Recent declines in low-rise dwellings Housing Completions, Toronto CMA 50,000 45,000
Total
40,000 35,000 30,000
“Low-Rise”
25,000 20,000 15,000
Apartment
10,000 5,000 0
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: CMHC Housing Data 57
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2008
2010
2012
2014 2015
Young and old moving to condos Percent Moved to Condo, Household Movers 2006-2011, Toronto CMA 63
59
53
47
%
44
Under 25
25-29
30-34
37
All Ages +31%
33 24
23
35-39
40-44
23
26
45-49 50-54 Age Groups
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey 58
#EAUC2015
31
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75 +
Housing costs relative to income higher in Toronto Home Owners Spending 30% or More of Income on Shelter Costs, 2011 70% All Ages
60%
Total 27%
50% 40%
Toronto CMA
30% 20%
Ontario
10% 0% Under 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 25 Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 NHS 59
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75 +
New Home Buyers 2006-2011
60
Most new homes are owner occupied Apartment
New Homes 2006-2011, Toronto CMA Total Dwellings 138,000
Rented 40% Owned 60%
Rented 20%
Rented 8%
Owned 80%
Low-rise
Owned 92% Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey 61
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Under age 45 account for 60% of new homes Owners Age, Dwellings Constructed 2006-2011, Toronto CMA
65 and over 9%
45 to 64 33%
Under age 45 58%
Source: Statistics Canada 2011 National Household Survey 62
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Most new homes purchased by first or second generation Owners, Dwellings Constructed 2006-2011, Toronto CMA
3+ generation 16% Second generation 25%
First generation 59%
Source: Statistics Canada 2011 National Household Survey 63
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Summary: Key trends impacting housing demand • Continued growth in population- 1% per year • Many Newcomers each year • Large group of Millennials moving into age group 26-45 over the next decade • Boomers moving into ages 60-80 over the next decade ; many decisions on housing preferences; Move away from single family homes “free-up” stock • Women new home buyers likely to be important segment
64
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How can builders engage Millennials?
65
66
#EAUC2015
PRIZM5 Lifestyle Segments
What’s yours? PRIZM5.com
Source: PRIZM5
67
#EAUC2015
51 PRIZM Types in the GTA
What’s yours? PRIZM5.com
Source: PRIZM5
68
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51 PRIZM Types in the GTA
What’s yours? PRIZM5.com
Source: PRIZM5
69
#EAUC2015
51 PRIZM Types in the GTA 16 with heavy Millennial concentration
Source: PRIZM5
70
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Understand your customers – not all Millennials are the same
HHs < 35
61,604
35,680
11,555
26,886
Avg. HHI $
$93K
$62K
$61K
$71K
% Own
51%
19%
67%
74%
% Immigrant
40%
43%
67%
53%
(under-35s)
Source: DemoStats 2016 71
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Yonge & Eglinton
Downtown Toronto
North York Centre
72
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Detailed consumer data benefits builders and developers Focus your resources on what will make a difference to your customers… and your bottom line. Optimize floor plans and amenities so homes feel more ‘like home’ Spend marketing dollars more effectively & track what’s working Avoid wasteful spending Attract and retain residents that want to live in your community Deliver truly customer-centric marketing, sales and residence programs Develop a common view of the customer across all project teams
73
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We provide information to help you know your customers
Media & tech
Environmental
Budget
Quality
74
Cultural
Athletic
Family
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Success
Where do they live now?
% Apt/Condo
85%
96%
92%
36%
% Own
51%
19%
67%
74%
Live in New Home
14%
8%
10%
4%
New Home Intender Score
135
82
77
91
$ liquid assets
$113K
$92K
$75K
$32K
(post 2011)
(100 is average)
Source: DemoStats, Opticks Vividata, LiquidAssets 75
#EAUC2015
What’s important to these customers?
• • • •
Progressive Quirky Personalization “Home” conveys self
• • • •
Source: Social Values 76
#EAUC2015
Traditional New Value “Home” conveys status
I need more room for my…
Kids: 7%
Kids: 5%
Partner: 10%
Partner: 5%
Dog: 14% Cat: 20%
Dog: 14% Cat: 27%
Hobbies & Stuff
Hobbies & Stuff
Source: Opticks Numeris “Kids/Partner” questions ask about having a baby or getting married in past 2 years. Dog/Cat questions ask about having at least one. 77
#EAUC2015
How can we engage them?
Internet
Internet
Select Print
Select Print
On their Commute
On their Commute
Source: Opticks Numeris 78
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61,604 HHs
Environics Analytics We help clients achieve their business objectives by delivering actionable customer and market insight grounded in data and analytics.
est. 2003
Founded in November 2003
Partnership with Environics Group
160 employees strong
2
Specialists in datadriven insights and target marketing
3,000+ customers across North America
#EAUC2015
Canada’s largest marketing services provider
Customer Advisory Board of 18
Some of our Clients
3
Finance & Insurance
Retail & Real Estate
Fundraising & NFP
Government
Media/Telco
Travel & Lifestyle
#EAUC2015
Outline of Presentation • Key Demographic Trends • A Look at the Generations • Housing Trends • Understanding Millennial Lifestyles
4
#EAUC2015
Key Demographic Trends
5
6
#EAUC2015
Slightly lower growth in recent years 5 Year Census Growth, GTA Population
9.8
10.0
9.3
Households
10.4
10.2 9.0 7.4
7.6
%
1996-2001 161,300
2001-2006
2006-2011 Time frame
185,200 201,500 Growth in households
2.4M Households in 2016 Source: Statistics Canada various censuses; 2011-16 Environics Analytics estimates 7
#EAUC2015
2011-2016 163,700
Components of population growth Components of Population Growth, GTA 140,000 120,000 100,000
International Migration
80,000 60,000 Natural Increase
40,000 20,000
Interprovincial Migration
0
Intraprovincial Migration
-20,000 -40,000 2001-2002
2003-2004
2005-2006
2007-2008
Source: Statistics Canada Demographic Estimates 8
#EAUC2015
2009-2010
2011-2012
2014-2015 2013-2014
Household growth projected to decline Percentage Projected Household Growth, GTA 7.6 6.2 %
5.1
2011-2016
2016-2021
163,700
151,100 Number
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 9
#EAUC2015
2021-2026 131,100
Similar growth across the GTA Estimated Households, 2016 Census 1Divisions
%
9.8 15.1
Durham 237,500
48.1
Toronto 1,163,100
18.7
Peel 452,100
8.3
Halton 200,600
York 366,100
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 10
#EAUC2015
Similar growth across the GTA Estimated Households, 2016
Estimated Growth, Households 2011-2016
Census 1Divisions
%
9.8 15.1
Durham 237,500
48.1
Toronto 1,163,100
Durham
York 366,100
Peel 452,100
8.3
Halton 200,600
Toronto
Halton
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 11
9.1
York
Peel
18.7
7.3 %
#EAUC2015
6.9 7.9 8.2
Younger, but aging population in GTA Age of Population 2016
2026 GTA
16.4
15.9
14.3
Ontario
21.6 17.0
16.4
18.1 15.2
%
Under 15
65 and over
Under 15 Age Groups
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 12
#EAUC2015
65 and over
Future growth concentrated at older ages Growth in Household Count, ‘000s, 2016 to 2026, GTA 99 77
Total Growth 282
Count 000s 23
Under 35
89
37
35-44
-44 45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
Age Groups
434
476
542 452 Number ('000) in 2016 Total Count 2,419K
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 13
#EAUC2015
291
225
Growth at younger and older ages Change in Number of Households (000s), GTA 2011-2016 Total 170.0K
Count 000s 48.5
2016-2021 151.1K
2021-2026 131.1K
51.8
47.6
55.8 53.3
45.8
56.2 45.9
29.9
25.9 -2.8
-1.8
24.2 -7.4
-8.6
33
-8.4
-36.7 Under 35
35-44
45-64
65-74 Age Groups
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 14
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75-84
85 and over
Growth at younger and older ages Change in Number of Households (000s), GTA 2011-2016 Total 170.0K
Count 000s 48.5
2016-2021 151.1K
2021-2026 131.1K
51.8
47.6
55.8 53.3
45.8
56.2 45.9
29.9
25.9 -2.8
-1.8
24.2 -7.4
-8.6
33
-8.4
-36.7 Under 35
35-44
45-64
65-74 Age Groups
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 15
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75-84
85 and over
Growth at younger and older ages Change in Number of Households (000s), GTA 2011-2016 Total 170.0K
Count 000s 48.5
2016-2021 151.1K
2021-2026 131.1K
51.8
47.6
55.8 53.3
45.8
56.2 45.9
29.9
25.9 -2.8
-1.8
24.2 -7.4
-8.6
33
-8.4
-36.7 Under 35
35-44
45-64
65-74 Age Groups
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 16
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75-84
85 and over
Over a third of households are couples with children Household Type, GTA, 2016
Couples without children 26% Non-family 2+ persons 5%
Couples with children 36%
One-person 22%
Loneparent 11%
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 17
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Differences in household mix across the GTA Households with Children, 2016
One-Person Households,2016
York
56.5 %
York
11.5 %
Peel
55.7
Peel
14.0
Durham
50.5
Durham
16.9
Halton
50.3
Halton
18.3
Toronto GTA
Toronto
39.6
GTA
47.1
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 18
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30.6 22.3
A culturally diverse GTA population Visible Minority Population, GTA, 2016 South Asian Chinese Black Filipino Latin American West Asian Southeast Asian Arab Other Multiple Korean Japanese
987,500 597,600 457,100 252,900 144,300 120,400 103,700 100,800 91,900 89,600 69,600 21,300
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 DemoStats 19
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Total 3M 46% of Total Population
Diversity varies across the GTA Visible Minority Population, 2016 Peel
60 %
Toronto
49
York Durham Halton
46 24 22
GTA
46
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 20
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Little change in income in Toronto CMA Index of Median Economic Family Income* 2014$, 120 100 is Average index in year 2000
Canada
110
Ontario
100
Toronto CMA
90 80 2000
2002
2004
2006
*including persons not in families Source: Statistics Canada, Income Surveys 21
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2008
2010
2012
2014
Males lag in income increases Index of Median Individual Income, Toronto CMA, 2014$ 110 100 is average index in year 2000
100
Females Total
90
Males
80 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2014 Median Income Males $35,400 Females $26,100
Source: Statistics Canada, Income Surveys 22
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2010
2012
2014
The Generations
23
Five generations Estimated Population, GTA, 2016 Count 600,000
Gen Z 1.2M
Millennials 1.9M
Gen X 1.4M
Boomers 1.6M
Pre-Boomers 0.6M
500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
Age Groups
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 DemoStats 24
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55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Millennial generation will continue to grow from immigration; Boomers on the decline Estimated and Projected Population of GTA 2016
Millions
2026
2.16 1.88 1.44
Millennials
1.42
Gen X
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 25
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1.60
1.44
Boomers
Big increase in Millennial households over next decade Household Change in the GTA 2016
2026
967,100 753,700 741,200
Count
842,900
742,800
481,500
Millennials
Gen X
Source: Environics Analytics, 2016 Demostats 26
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Boomers
The Millennials
27
The Millennials • Born 1981-2000 • Ages 16-35 in 2016 • 1.9M; 28% of population
28
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Many young adults continue to live with parents Young Adults Living with Parents, 2011 Toronto CMA
%
92
Canada
87 75 60 39 24
Ages 20-24
25-29
Source: Statistics Canada 2011 Census 29
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30-34
Millennial women highly educated Highest Level of Education, Toronto CMA, 2011 Millennials 69 30
Gen X 77 30
Boomers
72
76
30
32
65 32
Pre Boomers
60 32
51 29
% 39
47
Male Female Millennials Millennials
43
44
M
F Gen X Gen X
33
28
M
35
College/Trades
22
University
13
F M F Boomers Pre Boomers Boomers Pre-Boomers
Source: Environics Analytics based on 2011 National Household Survey 30
22
Total on top
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Young women now a majority in many professions Percentage of Women, Selected Occupations, Canada, 2011 (%)
35-44
53
25-34
65
Age Groups
Lawyers and notaries 55-64 23 45-54
41
25-34
51 58
Age Groups
Computer and information systems professionals 50% 55-64 28 45-54 30 35-44 24 25-34 19
45-54
50%
30
35-44
48
25-34
45-54 35-44
58
27
50%
35 39
25-34
Electrical and electronics engineers 50% 55-64 6 45-54 9 35-44 13 25-34 15
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey 31
15
Specialist Physicians 55-64
50%
35-44
Age Groups
43
Age Groups
45-54
Dentists 55-64
50%
Age Groups
Age Groups
Biologists and related scientists 55-64 30
#EAUC2015
55
Young women now a majority in many professions Percentage of Women, Selected Occupations, Canada, 2011 (%)
43
35-44
53
25-34
65
Age Groups
Lawyers and notaries 55-64 23 45-54 35-44
41 51 58
Age Groups
Computer and information systems professionals 50% 55-64 28 45-54 30 35-44 24 25-34 19
45-54
50%
30
35-44
48
25-34
58
45-54
50%
35
35-44
39
25-34
55
Electrical and electronics engineers 50% 55-64 6
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey 32
15
Specialist Physicians 55-64 27
50%
25-34
Age Groups
50%
Age Groups
45-54
Dentists 55-64
Age Groups
Age Groups
Biologists and related scientists 55-64 30
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45-54 35-44 25-34
9 13 15
Diversity for Millennials will increase Percent Visible Minority, Toronto CMA, 2011
13
4.6
1.0 0.7
%
39
Millennials
46
Gen X
First generation
41
32
Boomers
Source: Environics Analytics based on 2011 National Household Survey 33
Second or higher generation
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Pre-Boomers
Young adults have had a decrease in income Change in Median Individual Income 2000-2014 (2014$), Toronto CMA 37.0
%
17.9 -9.3 16 and over
-17.5 25-34
-3.5
-10.6
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 and over
41,300
41,100
27,000
Age Groups 30,400
32,100
44,600
Average Median Income (2014$)
Source: Statistics Canada, Income Statistics 34
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Millennials stand out as heavy users of social media Percent of Total Population that Access Social Networking Daily, 2013
73
%
42 24 8 Millennials
Gen X
Boomers
Source: Statistics Canada, 2013 General Social Survey 35
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Pre-Boomers
Millennials have different values • They want to “make it” and be seen as making it by others; personal accomplishment, image and status matter • Have strong values and are willing to express them • Social generation: connect with people to share experiences; family is important • Less religious; More accepting of cultural diversity • Expect technology to be there and work for them • Do work that is fulfilling and challenging • Balance work/life time; flexibility in work hours
36
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More extravagant and sophisticated consumers I consider myself to be sophisticated (%)
I enjoy being extravagant (%)
I like to try new and different products (%)
39 29 27
Millennials Gen X Boomers
33 22 18 51 49 42
Source: Environics Analytics PRIZM5; Opticks Powered by Numeris RTS 37
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Value for money more important than brand loyalty I tend to pass up my favourite brand if something else is on sale (%)
Once I find a brand I like, I stick with it (%)
Millennials
40 38 33
Gen X Boomers
69 76 78
Source: Environics Analytics PRIZM5; Opticks Powered by Numeris RTS 38
#EAUC2015
Opinions of friends are important My friends' opinions are an important source of information for me (%) I offer recommendations of products/services to other people (%)
Millennials
50 40 39
Gen X Boomers
65 66 62
Source: Environics Analytics PRIZM5; Opticks Powered by Numeris RTS 39
#EAUC2015
Advertising a little less important Advertising is an important source of information to me (%) 'New and improved' on packages is just an advertising gimmick (%)
Millennials
29 30 35
Gen X Boomers
70 72 73
Source: Environics Analytics PRIZM5; Opticks Powered by Numeris RTS 40
#EAUC2015
Marketing to Millennials • Millennials are a large group and will become even larger as they move into their prime earning years • They are very diverse as they transition from living at home and attending school to starting families and job • Social media is very important • Marketing to Millennial generation as a whole is limiting as it misses considerable variation within the group
41
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42
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Canada – U.S. Differences Compared to the same age group (25-34) about a decade ago U.S. Millennials have: • Lower employment rates • Lower incomes and wealth • Higher debt
43
Canadian Millennials have: • Slightly lower employment rates • Higher incomes and wealth • Similar debt level
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Generation X
44
Generation X • • • • • • •
45
Born 1966-1979 Ages 36-50 in 2016 7.2 million; 20% of population Two thirds of Gen X households have children Peak employment/earning years Oldest will be approaching retirement years in 10 years High level of education
#EAUC2015
In contrast to Millennials, Boomers are transitioning to empty nests and retirement
46
The Boomers • • • •
Born 1946-1965 Ages 51-70 in 2016 1.6 million; 23% of population Compared to parents: – Have smaller but more complex families – Are more highly educated
• Many women have been in labour force for many years • On average, financially better off, but much variation within the generation • Expected to live an average of almost 20 years after “retirement”
47
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Increase in empty nest and living alone Household Type, Toronto CMA, 2011 Empty Nest Couple
Lives Alone
39
37 28
% 17
18
20
28
24
44 32
32
11 50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69 Age Groups
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey 48
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70-74
75+
Housing needs differ by age in older years • Pre-seniors 55-64 • Younger seniors 65-74 • Older seniors 75-84 • Oldest seniors 85 and over
49
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Growth varies by age Index of Population Growth (2016=100), GTA 400
Age 85 +
300
Age 75-84
200
Age 65-74
Index
Age 55-64
100 0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041
Source: Ontario Finance, Revised projections 50
#EAUC2015
Decisions, decisions • Younger Seniors – Stay where we are but make home more accessible – Stay in the burbs but downsize – Condo living – Adult-lifestyle community – By the lake/ski slopes – “Back home where the livin’ is good”
• At older ages – Residences for seniors/ nursing home – Rent
51
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Housing
52
Young adults show a slight delay starting their own households Household Maintainer Rate, Toronto CMA 2001
51.8 51.5 50.4
%
2006
55.5 55.7 55.3
2011
56.0 56.0 56.2
57.7 55.5 56.8
64.2 62.4 62.5
37.9 36.4 35.9
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64 Age Groups
Source: Statistics Canada, Census data 53
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65-74
75+
Ownership rates have been constant in recent years after an increase earlier Home Ownership Rate, Toronto CMA 2001
62.2
%
42.1
66.7 67.5
2006
70.9 73.5 73.7
74.8 77.1 76
74.2 75.9 75.3
66.9
70.6 73.8
48.7 48.5
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64 Age Groups
Source: Statistics Canada, Census data 54
2011
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65-74
75+
Immigrants gradually purchase homes Home Ownership 2011 by Period of Immigration, Toronto CMA
59.3
67.0
71.3
79.7
40.3
%
2006 to 2011
2001 to 2005
1991 to 2000
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey 55
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1981 to 1990
Before 1981
Gradual shift to high-rises at older ages Dwelling Type by Age, Owners, Toronto CMA, 2011 28
10
11
14
30
27
25
34 %
38 Under age 35
22
60
62
61
55
35-54
55-64
65-74
75 +
Source: Environics Analytics based on 2011 National Household Survey 56
24
#EAUC2015
High-rise Other low-rise Single family
Recent declines in low-rise dwellings Housing Completions, Toronto CMA 50,000 45,000
Total
40,000 35,000 30,000
“Low-Rise”
25,000 20,000 15,000
Apartment
10,000 5,000 0
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: CMHC Housing Data 57
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2008
2010
2012
2014 2015
Young and old moving to condos Percent Moved to Condo, Household Movers 2006-2011, Toronto CMA 63
59
53
47
%
44
Under 25
25-29
30-34
37
All Ages +31%
33 24
23
35-39
40-44
23
26
45-49 50-54 Age Groups
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey 58
#EAUC2015
31
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75 +
Housing costs relative to income higher in Toronto Home Owners Spending 30% or More of Income on Shelter Costs, 2011 70% All Ages
60%
Total 27%
50% 40%
Toronto CMA
30% 20%
Ontario
10% 0% Under 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 25 Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 NHS 59
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75 +
New Home Buyers 2006-2011
60
Most new homes are owner occupied Apartment
New Homes 2006-2011, Toronto CMA Total Dwellings 138,000
Rented 40% Owned 60%
Rented 20%
Rented 8%
Owned 80%
Low-rise
Owned 92% Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey 61
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Under age 45 account for 60% of new homes Owners Age, Dwellings Constructed 2006-2011, Toronto CMA
65 and over 9%
45 to 64 33%
Under age 45 58%
Source: Statistics Canada 2011 National Household Survey 62
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Most new homes purchased by first or second generation Owners, Dwellings Constructed 2006-2011, Toronto CMA
3+ generation 16% Second generation 25%
First generation 59%
Source: Statistics Canada 2011 National Household Survey 63
#EAUC2015
Summary: Key trends impacting housing demand • Continued growth in population- 1% per year • Many Newcomers each year • Large group of Millennials moving into age group 26-45 over the next decade • Boomers moving into ages 60-80 over the next decade ; many decisions on housing preferences; Move away from single family homes “free-up” stock • Women new home buyers likely to be important segment
64
#EAUC2015
How can builders engage Millennials?
65
66
#EAUC2015
PRIZM5 Lifestyle Segments
What’s yours? PRIZM5.com
Source: PRIZM5
67
#EAUC2015
51 PRIZM Types in the GTA
What’s yours? PRIZM5.com
Source: PRIZM5
68
#EAUC2015
51 PRIZM Types in the GTA
What’s yours? PRIZM5.com
Source: PRIZM5
69
#EAUC2015
51 PRIZM Types in the GTA 16 with heavy Millennial concentration
Source: PRIZM5
70
#EAUC2015
Understand your customers – not all Millennials are the same
HHs < 35
61,604
35,680
11,555
26,886
Avg. HHI $
$93K
$62K
$61K
$71K
% Own
51%
19%
67%
74%
% Immigrant
40%
43%
67%
53%
(under-35s)
Source: DemoStats 2016 71
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Yonge & Eglinton
Downtown Toronto
North York Centre
72
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Detailed consumer data benefits builders and developers Focus your resources on what will make a difference to your customers… and your bottom line. Optimize floor plans and amenities so homes feel more ‘like home’ Spend marketing dollars more effectively & track what’s working Avoid wasteful spending Attract and retain residents that want to live in your community Deliver truly customer-centric marketing, sales and residence programs Develop a common view of the customer across all project teams
73
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We provide information to help you know your customers
Media & tech
Environmental
Budget
Quality
74
Cultural
Athletic
Family
#EAUC2015
Success
Where do they live now?
% Apt/Condo
85%
96%
92%
36%
% Own
51%
19%
67%
74%
Live in New Home
14%
8%
10%
4%
New Home Intender Score
135
82
77
91
$ liquid assets
$113K
$92K
$75K
$32K
(post 2011)
(100 is average)
Source: DemoStats, Opticks Vividata, LiquidAssets 75
#EAUC2015
What’s important to these customers?
• • • •
Progressive Quirky Personalization “Home” conveys self
• • • •
Source: Social Values 76
#EAUC2015
Traditional New Value “Home” conveys status
I need more room for my…
Kids: 7%
Kids: 5%
Partner: 10%
Partner: 5%
Dog: 14% Cat: 20%
Dog: 14% Cat: 27%
Hobbies & Stuff
Hobbies & Stuff
Source: Opticks Numeris “Kids/Partner” questions ask about having a baby or getting married in past 2 years. Dog/Cat questions ask about having at least one. 77
#EAUC2015
How can we engage them?
Internet
Internet
Select Print
Select Print
On their Commute
On their Commute
Source: Opticks Numeris 78
#EAUC2015
61,604 HHs
