ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE QUARTERLY REPORT
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE QUARTERLY REPORT 4Q 2010
KMEFIC Research Department .م.ك.م.ﺷﺮآﺔ اﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ واﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ ﻟﻺﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ش Kuwait and Middle East Financial Investment Company K.S.C.C.
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l Fourth Quarter 2010 The Quarter in brief...
* Confidence rises & volatilities fall + * Real Estate remains negative -* Constrcution & Industrial sectors soar ++
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Market Index & Trade Volume - 4Q- 2010 250
2,850
200
2,800
150
2,750
100
2,700
50
2,650
0
2,600
Oct-10
* Volumes and values hike +
Volume
Nov-10 ADX
Market Overview
General Index
2,673.19
Dec-10 10 per. Mov. Avg. (ADX)
ADX Indices returns in 4Q-2010
ADX Market Indices Previous Quarter (3Q-2010)
Current Quarter (4Q-2010)
2,719.87
Change (points)
Q-o-Q Change %
End of 2009
General Index
YTD %
3,931.66 313.37 163.00 1,156.07 2,101.20 2,554.19 2,420.26 2,198.19 1 412 40 1,412.40
4,024.84 291.78 166.29 1,158.98 2,410.31 2,653.21 2,431.52 2,499.33 1 211 87 1,211.87
1.7%
Construction
46.68
1.75%
▲
2,743.61
-0.87%
93.18 (21.59) 3.29 2.91 309.11 99.02 11.26 301.14 (200 53) (200.53)
2.37% -6.89% 2.02% 0.25% 14.71% 3.88% 0.47% 13.70% 14 20% -14.20%
▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼
3,830.50 5.07% 542.00 -46.17% 174.06 -4.46% 1,415.09 -18.10% 2,502.60 -3.69% 3,142.17 -15.56% 2,251.52 7.99% 2,378.13 5.10% 1 300 04 -6.78% 6 78% 1,300.04
▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼
14.7%
Industrial
13.7%
Insurance
Sectors Indices Banks Real Estate Energy Consumer Construction Insurance Telecommunication Industrial H lth C Health Care
ADX
KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co.
3.9%
Banks
2.4%
Energy
2.0%
Telecommunication
0.5%
Consumer Real Estate
0.3% -6.9%
Health Care -14.2% -20% Source: KMEFIC Research
-10%
0%
10%
20%
The fourth quarter of 2010 witnessed a number of developments pertaining to Abu Dhabi Exchange, starting with ADX’s intention to pay extra focus on attracting institutional investors to its Exchange Traded Funds trading system that was launched in March 2010. And in a step to provide stocks of local companies listed on both ADX and DFM with an international securities code, the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority started issuing National Securities Identifying Numbers, NSIN, which will be used in local and international trading of those securities. Furthermore, ADX launched 5 surveys to measure the level of stakeholders’ satisfaction as part of its strategic plans in line with the objectives of Abu-Dhabi’s Economic Vision 2030. In terms of listed issues, First Gulf Bank’s share ranked amongst the top 10 performers by the end of the 4th quarter, adding 22.07%, after gaining three “BUY” recommendations during the quarter from different entities; meanwhile, Dana Gas failed to achieve the same despite three “BUY” recommendations during the quarter, to close amongst the top 10 losers, shedding 12.05%. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank’s share occupied the 10th position on the same list, declining by 9.61% by the end of December 2010, compared to September's closing price, while it filed a lawsuit in the US courts against Credit Suisse and others. Etisalat, on the other hand, had mixed recommendations between “BUY”, “STRONG BUY” and “HOLD”; the company announced during the quarter its continued intention to acquire the 46% share in the Kuwaiti Mobile Telecommunications Company, ZAIN; Etisalat’s share concluded the quarter on neutral grounds, closing up by 0.47% Q-o-Q. With regards to the market's main indices, the majority of ADX’s sectors ended the quarter in the green zone, along with the market’s General Index, which added 1.75% to its September closing. The Construction sector was the biggest gainer of the quarter, as its index grew by 14.71% compared to 3Q-2010 closing level. On the other hand, Real Estate and Health Care were the quarter’s only losers, dipping by 6.89% and 14.20% respectively.
4Q-2010 - Market Sectoral Data (Activity, Capitalization, Multiples) SECTORS
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Banks & Fin. Ser. Real Estate Telecommunication Consumer Construction Insurance Energy Industrial Health Care
698.21 2,297.41 62.32 75.48 641.62 460.95 935.96 15.65 17.69
Total Market YTD chng in M.Cap
5,205.30
Source: KMEFIC Research
% to market
Rank
3 1 7 6 4 5 2 9 8
Value (AED mil.)
13.41% 2,072.59 44.14% 3,824.21 1.20% 688.02 1.45% 201.99 12.33% 743.20 8.86% 849.76 17.98% 773.51 0.30% 47.24 0.34% 31.56 100.0% 9,232.09
Rank
2 1 6 7 5 3 4 8 9
% to market
22.45% 41.42% 7.45% 2.19% 8.05% 9.20% 8.38% 0.51% 0.34%
MCap (AED bil.)
% to Market
110.51 11.04 116.95 6.98 10.53 10.89 14.03 4.53 2.51
38.38% 3.83% 40.61% 2.43% 3.66% 3.78% 4.87% 1.57% 0.87%
287.98 100.0% 1.23%
Rank
2 4 1 7 6 5 3 8 9
N. of Co.
P/E
P/BV
ROE
16 3 4 9 10 15 2 4 2
11.28 10.76 9.91 7.89 12.51 13.46 14.80 8.78 13.78
1.36 0.45 1.51 1.06 0.97 1.72 0.92 1.12 1.38
13.70% 5.78% 8.37% 10.43% 5.70% 12.34% 14.95% 16.62% 9.85%
65
10.90
1.35
10.88%
Notes: (1)Market Valuation Multiples & ROE are weighted as per sectors capitalization. (3) Capitalization in Billion AED
Page 1 Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K (K.S.C.C.) S C C ) KMEFIC- P.O.Box P O Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected] (Kindly refer to the Disclaimer on the last page)
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l Fourth Quarter 2010 KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co.
Technical Review
ADX 1rst Support 1rst Resistance 2nd Support 2nd Resistance
ADX vs. Two Support & Resistance Levels
ADX Index Volatility
3,100
30 Days 2.06%
General Index
60 Days 3.80%
90 Days 4.51%
52-weeks 9.70%
2,900 2,700 2,500
ADX Index Support & Resistance S2 2,598
General Index
2,300
S1 2,659
R1 2,807
R2 2,894
Market Activity Month/ Quarter
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Oct-10
Rank
823.06 1,083.92 1,428.94 3,335.92
6 5 3
October-10 November-10
2,360.33
1 2
1,645.53 1,199.44 5,205.30 56.04%
4
Value (AED mil.)
Rank
1,371.05 2,101.83 2,860.13 6,333.01
6 5 3
3,973.82
1 2
2,932.08 2,326.19 9,232.09 45.78%
Volume Allocation By Category
Methaq Takaful Insurance Ras Al Khaimah Ceramic
2.47 2.67
92.97% 44.32%
211.34 8.48
Oman & Emirates Invest. Holding FOOD Holding Co. Arkan Building Materials
1.00 3.09 1.71
40.85% 40.45% 39.02%
0.01 36.06 131.00
0.01% 36.06% 7.49%
Abu Dhabi Ship Building Gulf Medical Projects United Arab Bank Abu Dhabi National Takaful Fujairah Building Industries
Telecommunication 18.0%
Banks 13.4%
Share Turnover 140.89% 1.26%
Stock
Real Estate 44.1%
4
Market Breadth
Top Losers
Dec-10
Others 24.5%
Top Gainers Stock
Nov-10
Volume Allocation by Sector
July-10 August 10 August-10 September-10 Total 3Q-2010
December-10 Total 4Q-2010 Q-o-Q chng %
2,100
Close (AED)
Close (AED)
2.67 1.95 5.43 3.16 3.74
Change
Change -30.83% -29.86% -26.62% -20.40% -19.74%
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Volume (mil. Shrs)
0.24 0.57 0.19 0.28 0.07
Share Turnover 0.12% 0.10% 0.02% 0.39% 0.06%
No-Change 0.35%
Gainers 41.19% Losers 58.46%
Breadth & Market Share Category
Active Stocks Gainers Losers No-Change
Volume (mil.Shars)
Count
57 30 26 1
% to Market
5,205.30 100.0% 2,144 41.2%
3,043 18.238
58.5% 0.350%
Value AED
9,232.09 4,057 4,956 219.268
% to Market
100.0% 43.9% 53.7% 2.375%
Most Active by Volume Stock AL DAR Properties Dana Gas PJSC Ras Al Khaimah Properties Sorouh Real Estate Ras Al Khaimah Cement
Close (AED)
2.28 0.73 0.44 1.63 0.84
Change -8.06% -12.05% 4.76% -7.39% 9.09%
1,098.13 877.44 710.80 488.49 408.50
% to market 21.10% 16.86% 13.66% 9.38% 7.85%
Value (AED mil.) 2 640 94 2,640.94 907.75 843.05 686.51 665.28
% to market 28 61% 28.61% 9.83% 9.13% 7.44% 7.21%
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Most Active by Turnover Stock AL DAR Properties First Gulf Bank Sorouh Real Estate Dana Gas PJSC Etisalat
Close (AED)
2.28 2 28 18.25 1.63 0.73 10.80
Change -8.06% 8 06% 22.07% -7.39% -12.05% 0.47%
The last quarter of 2010 witnessed active trades in light of regional developments such as Zain deal and Nakheel and DW updates; the quarter recorded a hike in trading volume and value by 56% and 46% respectively, with most of the trades occurring in the month of October as 3Q-10 results were out. The 52 weeks volatility dropped to 9.70% during the quarter, after recording 18.37% during 3Q-10. Methaq Takaful was the top performer for the quarter, hiking by almost 93%; meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Ship Building's share fell to occupy the first position on the top losers list, with a plunge of 30.83% Q-o-Q. Al Dar Properties, as usual, was amongst the most active in both trading volume and value during 4Q-10.
Page 2 Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected]
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l Fourth Quarter 2010 KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co. ADX Stocks - The Quarter Activity Sheet Name
Sector
30-Sep-2010
30-Dec-2010
Change %
Volume (Shares)
Value (in KWD)
Shr Turnover Ratio
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.29
2.07
-9.61%
52,455,630
123,306,373
1.09%
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.71
2.96
9.23%
64,637,742
196,393,959
2.73%
Bank Of Sharjah
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.87
1.84
-1.60%
14,190,452
26,063,782
0.68%
Commercial Bank International
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.08
1.26 16.67%
74,503,046
87,942,029
5.56%
First Gulf Bank
Banks & Fin Fin. Ser. Ser
14 95 14.95
18 25 22.07% 18.25 22 07%
53 561 316 53,561,316
907 752 495 907,752,495
3 90% 3.90%
Finance House
Banks & Fin. Ser.
4.32
6.00 38.89%
7,288,044
33,469,188
2.65%
Invest Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.90
1.80
-5.26%
5,042,565
8,430,738
0.44%
National Bank Of Abu Dhabi
Banks & Fin. Ser.
11.75
11.75
0.00%
18,238,236
219,268,227
National Bank of Fujairah
Banks & Fin. Ser.
5.00
5.00
0.00%
-
-
0.76% 0.00%
National Bank of Umm Al-Qaiwain
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.45
2.29
-6.53%
28,838,202
57,593,583
1.84%
Oman & Emirates Invest. Holding
Banks & Fin. Ser.
0.71
1.00 40.85%
10,868
8,484
0.01%
4,469,516
20,484,333
0.39%
31,150,308
29,358,038
1.28%
193,098
1,052,147
0.02%
34,555,127
115,426,663
1.52%
National Bank of Ras Al Khaima
Banks & Fin. Ser.
4.30
5.02 16.74%
Sharjah Islamic Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
0.95
0.93
United Arab Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
7.40
5.43 -26.62%
Union National Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
3.40
3.14
-7.65%
Waha Capital
Banks & Fin. Ser.
0.75
0.74
-1.33%
309,072,650
246,044,644
17.84%
AL DAR Properties
Real Estate
2.48
2.28
-8.06%
1,098,128,180
2,640,941,651
42.60%
-2.11%
p Ras Al Khaimah Properties
Real Estate
0.42
0.44
4.76%
710,796,750
340,217,399
35.54%
Sorouh Real Estate
Real Estate
1.76
1.63
-7.39%
488,487,751
843,046,830
18.61%
Etisalat
Telecommunication
10.75
10.80
0.47%
59,778,657
665,275,578
0.76%
Qatar Telecom (Qtel)
Telecommunication
170.00
176.00
3.53%
95,844
17,230,946
0.07%
Sudan Telecom.
Telecommunication
2.30
2.10
-8.70%
2,450,088
5,513,487
0.25%
Abu Dhabi National Hotels
Consumer
3.01
3.00
-0.33%
7,938,764
24,171,870
0.79%
AGTHIA Group
Consumer
2.26
2.15
-4.87%
26,075,257
57,992,785
4.35%
International Fish Farming
Consumer
7 90 7.90
8 00 8.00
1 27% 1.27%
32 543 32,543
264 881 264,881
0 07% 0.07%
Emirates Driving
Consumer
3.86
4.10
6.22%
4,533,926
17,674,889
5.05%
FOOD Holding Co.
Consumer
2.20
3.09 40.45%
36,060,222
99,953,118
36.06%
FUJAIRAH Trade Center
Consumer
0.00
0.00
Gulf Livestock Co
Consumer
7.27
7.27
0.00%
-
National Corp. for Tourism & Hotels
Consumer
7.00
6.62
-5.43%
92,500
0.00%
-
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
680,660
0.08%
Ras Al Khaimah Poultry & Feeding
Consumer
1.66
1.87 12.65%
750,253
1,251,331
0.87%
Arkan Building Materials
Construction
1.23
1.71 39.02%
131,001,446
248,625,100
7.49%
Fujairah Building Industries
Construction
4.66
3.74 -19.74%
70,000
276,150
Fujairah Cement Industries
Construction
3.00
3.00
Gulf Cement
Construction
1.80
1.58 -12.22%
0.00%
25,341,276
41,351,843
0.06% 0.00% 3.09%
Umm Al-Qaiwain Cement Industries
Construction
0.72
0.77
6.94%
28,492,877
21,859,491
7.85%
Ras Al Khaimah Cement
Construction
0.77
0.84
9.09%
408,495,124
370,920,920
84.40%
Ras Al Khaimah Ceramic
Construction
1.85
2.67 44.32%
8,483,897
17,909,768
1.26%
Ras Al Khaimah for White Cement & C Construction
1.15
1.40 21.74%
8,133,539
10,284,324
1.74%
Sharjah Cement & Industrial Dev.
Construction
0.98
0.88 -10.20%
30,526,533
30,406,709
5.52%
Union Cement
Construction
1.40
1.60 14.29%
1,072,497
1,562,988
0.16%
Al Buhaira National Insurance
Insurance
9.18
9.00
602,554
5,392,986
0.24% Page 3
-1.96%
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected]
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l Fourth Quarter 2010 KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co. ADX Stocks - The Quarter Activity Sheet Name
Sector
30-Sep-2010
30-Dec-2010
Change %
Abu Dhabi National Insurance
Insurance
6.25
6.96
0.11
Fujairah National Insurance
Insurance
300.00
300.00
0.00
Volume (Shares)
Value (in KWD)
1,253,884 -
Al Khazna Insurance
Insurance
0.84
0.78
(0.07)
Al Ain Ahlia Insurance
Insurance
47.00
47.00
0.00
7,447,021 -
Al Wathba National Insurance
Insurance
5 66 5.66
6 22 6.22
0 10 0.10
2 500 2,500
Shr Turnover Ratio
8,143,585 5,947,679 15 550 15,550
0.33% 0.00% 1.86% 0.00% 0 00% 0.00%
Al Dhafra Insurance
Insurance
4.10
4.50
0.10
1,101,895
4,777,741
1.47%
Emirates Insurance
Insurance
6.00
6.51
0.09
20,759,823
124,571,300
15.38%
Green Crescent Insurance
Insurance
0.57
0.76
0.33
217,107,134
191,054,714
86.84%
Methaq Takaful Insurance
Insurance
1.28
2.47
0.93
211,336,296
506,376,792
140.89%
Ras Al Khaimah National Insurance
Insurance
4.00
3.85
(0.04)
96,640
371,875
Sharjah Insurance
Insurance
5.25
5.25
0.00
-
-
0.10% 0.00%
Abu Dhabi National Takaful
Insurance
3.97
3.16
(0.20)
283,248
1,146,886
0.39%
United Insurance
Insurance
3.75
4.00
0.07
3,000
12,000
0.01%
Union Insurance
Insurance
2.48
2.21
(0.11)
954,502
1,952,460
0.29%
Dana Gas PJSC
Energy
0.83
0.73
(0.12)
877,441,618
686,509,797
13.29%
Abu Dhabi National Energy
Energy
1.33
1.48
0.11
58,522,519
87,003,573
0.94%
Abu Dhabi Aviation
Industrial
2.08
2.85
0.37
13,501,990
34,254,911
3.34%
p Buildingg Abu Dhabi Ship
0.12%
Industrial
3.86
2.67
((0.31))
244,285
703,392
Abu Dhabi National for Building Materi Industrial
1.82
1.78
(0.02)
780,619
1,372,156
0.26%
National Marine Dredging
Industrial
8.20
10.50
0.28
1,119,492
10,912,468
0.52%
Gulf Medical Projects
Health Care
2.78
1.95
(0.30)
574,720
1,074,317
0.10%
Gulf Pharmaceutical
Health Care
1.75
1.87
0.07
17,116,680
30,488,703
2.40% Page 4
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait T l ( 965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) Tel.:(+965) F ( 965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw k fi k [email protected] R h@k fi k
Legal DISCLAIMER: This report is being provided for informational purposes only and on the condition that it will not form a primary basis for any investment decision. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any of the securities that may be referred to herein. In no event will KMEFIC be liable for any loss occurring from investment decisions made based on the recommendation here-enclosed. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors should make their own decision on whether or not to buy or sell the securities covered herein based upon their specific investment goals and in consultation with their financial advisor. KMEFIC has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise make any notification or announcement thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. The inclusion of any opinions/estimates does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them. Many areas of the report contain opinions and/or analysis that represent the involved analysts' views; neither the analysts nor KMEFIC shall be in any way liable for their opinions expressed in the report. This report has been prepared and issued by the Research Department @ Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co. K.S.C.C. (KMEFIC), a licensed Kuwaiti investment company regulated by the Central Bank of Kuwait. KMEFIC prepared this report using publicly available information, internal data, and other sources considered reliable; however, KMEFIC makes no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability with respect to the report or the information, analysis, opinions, or related graphics contained on the report for any purpose. While great care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate, neither KMEFIC nor any of its employees shall be in any way responsible for the contents Neither this document nor any of its contents may be distributed in any jurisdiction where its distribution is restricted by law. contents. law Neither this document nor its content may be copied, copied transmitted or distributed without the prior written consent of KMEFIC. Additional information on the contents of this report is available on request.
KMEFIC Research Department .م.ك.م.ﺷﺮآﺔ اﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ واﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ ﻟﻺﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ش Kuwait and Middle East Financial Investment Company K.S.C.C.
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l Fourth Quarter 2010 The Quarter in brief...
* Confidence rises & volatilities fall + * Real Estate remains negative -* Constrcution & Industrial sectors soar ++
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Market Index & Trade Volume - 4Q- 2010 250
2,850
200
2,800
150
2,750
100
2,700
50
2,650
0
2,600
Oct-10
* Volumes and values hike +
Volume
Nov-10 ADX
Market Overview
General Index
2,673.19
Dec-10 10 per. Mov. Avg. (ADX)
ADX Indices returns in 4Q-2010
ADX Market Indices Previous Quarter (3Q-2010)
Current Quarter (4Q-2010)
2,719.87
Change (points)
Q-o-Q Change %
End of 2009
General Index
YTD %
3,931.66 313.37 163.00 1,156.07 2,101.20 2,554.19 2,420.26 2,198.19 1 412 40 1,412.40
4,024.84 291.78 166.29 1,158.98 2,410.31 2,653.21 2,431.52 2,499.33 1 211 87 1,211.87
1.7%
Construction
46.68
1.75%
▲
2,743.61
-0.87%
93.18 (21.59) 3.29 2.91 309.11 99.02 11.26 301.14 (200 53) (200.53)
2.37% -6.89% 2.02% 0.25% 14.71% 3.88% 0.47% 13.70% 14 20% -14.20%
▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼
3,830.50 5.07% 542.00 -46.17% 174.06 -4.46% 1,415.09 -18.10% 2,502.60 -3.69% 3,142.17 -15.56% 2,251.52 7.99% 2,378.13 5.10% 1 300 04 -6.78% 6 78% 1,300.04
▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼
14.7%
Industrial
13.7%
Insurance
Sectors Indices Banks Real Estate Energy Consumer Construction Insurance Telecommunication Industrial H lth C Health Care
ADX
KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co.
3.9%
Banks
2.4%
Energy
2.0%
Telecommunication
0.5%
Consumer Real Estate
0.3% -6.9%
Health Care -14.2% -20% Source: KMEFIC Research
-10%
0%
10%
20%
The fourth quarter of 2010 witnessed a number of developments pertaining to Abu Dhabi Exchange, starting with ADX’s intention to pay extra focus on attracting institutional investors to its Exchange Traded Funds trading system that was launched in March 2010. And in a step to provide stocks of local companies listed on both ADX and DFM with an international securities code, the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority started issuing National Securities Identifying Numbers, NSIN, which will be used in local and international trading of those securities. Furthermore, ADX launched 5 surveys to measure the level of stakeholders’ satisfaction as part of its strategic plans in line with the objectives of Abu-Dhabi’s Economic Vision 2030. In terms of listed issues, First Gulf Bank’s share ranked amongst the top 10 performers by the end of the 4th quarter, adding 22.07%, after gaining three “BUY” recommendations during the quarter from different entities; meanwhile, Dana Gas failed to achieve the same despite three “BUY” recommendations during the quarter, to close amongst the top 10 losers, shedding 12.05%. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank’s share occupied the 10th position on the same list, declining by 9.61% by the end of December 2010, compared to September's closing price, while it filed a lawsuit in the US courts against Credit Suisse and others. Etisalat, on the other hand, had mixed recommendations between “BUY”, “STRONG BUY” and “HOLD”; the company announced during the quarter its continued intention to acquire the 46% share in the Kuwaiti Mobile Telecommunications Company, ZAIN; Etisalat’s share concluded the quarter on neutral grounds, closing up by 0.47% Q-o-Q. With regards to the market's main indices, the majority of ADX’s sectors ended the quarter in the green zone, along with the market’s General Index, which added 1.75% to its September closing. The Construction sector was the biggest gainer of the quarter, as its index grew by 14.71% compared to 3Q-2010 closing level. On the other hand, Real Estate and Health Care were the quarter’s only losers, dipping by 6.89% and 14.20% respectively.
4Q-2010 - Market Sectoral Data (Activity, Capitalization, Multiples) SECTORS
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Banks & Fin. Ser. Real Estate Telecommunication Consumer Construction Insurance Energy Industrial Health Care
698.21 2,297.41 62.32 75.48 641.62 460.95 935.96 15.65 17.69
Total Market YTD chng in M.Cap
5,205.30
Source: KMEFIC Research
% to market
Rank
3 1 7 6 4 5 2 9 8
Value (AED mil.)
13.41% 2,072.59 44.14% 3,824.21 1.20% 688.02 1.45% 201.99 12.33% 743.20 8.86% 849.76 17.98% 773.51 0.30% 47.24 0.34% 31.56 100.0% 9,232.09
Rank
2 1 6 7 5 3 4 8 9
% to market
22.45% 41.42% 7.45% 2.19% 8.05% 9.20% 8.38% 0.51% 0.34%
MCap (AED bil.)
% to Market
110.51 11.04 116.95 6.98 10.53 10.89 14.03 4.53 2.51
38.38% 3.83% 40.61% 2.43% 3.66% 3.78% 4.87% 1.57% 0.87%
287.98 100.0% 1.23%
Rank
2 4 1 7 6 5 3 8 9
N. of Co.
P/E
P/BV
ROE
16 3 4 9 10 15 2 4 2
11.28 10.76 9.91 7.89 12.51 13.46 14.80 8.78 13.78
1.36 0.45 1.51 1.06 0.97 1.72 0.92 1.12 1.38
13.70% 5.78% 8.37% 10.43% 5.70% 12.34% 14.95% 16.62% 9.85%
65
10.90
1.35
10.88%
Notes: (1)Market Valuation Multiples & ROE are weighted as per sectors capitalization. (3) Capitalization in Billion AED
Page 1 Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K (K.S.C.C.) S C C ) KMEFIC- P.O.Box P O Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected] (Kindly refer to the Disclaimer on the last page)
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l Fourth Quarter 2010 KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co.
Technical Review
ADX 1rst Support 1rst Resistance 2nd Support 2nd Resistance
ADX vs. Two Support & Resistance Levels
ADX Index Volatility
3,100
30 Days 2.06%
General Index
60 Days 3.80%
90 Days 4.51%
52-weeks 9.70%
2,900 2,700 2,500
ADX Index Support & Resistance S2 2,598
General Index
2,300
S1 2,659
R1 2,807
R2 2,894
Market Activity Month/ Quarter
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Oct-10
Rank
823.06 1,083.92 1,428.94 3,335.92
6 5 3
October-10 November-10
2,360.33
1 2
1,645.53 1,199.44 5,205.30 56.04%
4
Value (AED mil.)
Rank
1,371.05 2,101.83 2,860.13 6,333.01
6 5 3
3,973.82
1 2
2,932.08 2,326.19 9,232.09 45.78%
Volume Allocation By Category
Methaq Takaful Insurance Ras Al Khaimah Ceramic
2.47 2.67
92.97% 44.32%
211.34 8.48
Oman & Emirates Invest. Holding FOOD Holding Co. Arkan Building Materials
1.00 3.09 1.71
40.85% 40.45% 39.02%
0.01 36.06 131.00
0.01% 36.06% 7.49%
Abu Dhabi Ship Building Gulf Medical Projects United Arab Bank Abu Dhabi National Takaful Fujairah Building Industries
Telecommunication 18.0%
Banks 13.4%
Share Turnover 140.89% 1.26%
Stock
Real Estate 44.1%
4
Market Breadth
Top Losers
Dec-10
Others 24.5%
Top Gainers Stock
Nov-10
Volume Allocation by Sector
July-10 August 10 August-10 September-10 Total 3Q-2010
December-10 Total 4Q-2010 Q-o-Q chng %
2,100
Close (AED)
Close (AED)
2.67 1.95 5.43 3.16 3.74
Change
Change -30.83% -29.86% -26.62% -20.40% -19.74%
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Volume (mil. Shrs)
0.24 0.57 0.19 0.28 0.07
Share Turnover 0.12% 0.10% 0.02% 0.39% 0.06%
No-Change 0.35%
Gainers 41.19% Losers 58.46%
Breadth & Market Share Category
Active Stocks Gainers Losers No-Change
Volume (mil.Shars)
Count
57 30 26 1
% to Market
5,205.30 100.0% 2,144 41.2%
3,043 18.238
58.5% 0.350%
Value AED
9,232.09 4,057 4,956 219.268
% to Market
100.0% 43.9% 53.7% 2.375%
Most Active by Volume Stock AL DAR Properties Dana Gas PJSC Ras Al Khaimah Properties Sorouh Real Estate Ras Al Khaimah Cement
Close (AED)
2.28 0.73 0.44 1.63 0.84
Change -8.06% -12.05% 4.76% -7.39% 9.09%
1,098.13 877.44 710.80 488.49 408.50
% to market 21.10% 16.86% 13.66% 9.38% 7.85%
Value (AED mil.) 2 640 94 2,640.94 907.75 843.05 686.51 665.28
% to market 28 61% 28.61% 9.83% 9.13% 7.44% 7.21%
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Most Active by Turnover Stock AL DAR Properties First Gulf Bank Sorouh Real Estate Dana Gas PJSC Etisalat
Close (AED)
2.28 2 28 18.25 1.63 0.73 10.80
Change -8.06% 8 06% 22.07% -7.39% -12.05% 0.47%
The last quarter of 2010 witnessed active trades in light of regional developments such as Zain deal and Nakheel and DW updates; the quarter recorded a hike in trading volume and value by 56% and 46% respectively, with most of the trades occurring in the month of October as 3Q-10 results were out. The 52 weeks volatility dropped to 9.70% during the quarter, after recording 18.37% during 3Q-10. Methaq Takaful was the top performer for the quarter, hiking by almost 93%; meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Ship Building's share fell to occupy the first position on the top losers list, with a plunge of 30.83% Q-o-Q. Al Dar Properties, as usual, was amongst the most active in both trading volume and value during 4Q-10.
Page 2 Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected]
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l Fourth Quarter 2010 KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co. ADX Stocks - The Quarter Activity Sheet Name
Sector
30-Sep-2010
30-Dec-2010
Change %
Volume (Shares)
Value (in KWD)
Shr Turnover Ratio
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.29
2.07
-9.61%
52,455,630
123,306,373
1.09%
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.71
2.96
9.23%
64,637,742
196,393,959
2.73%
Bank Of Sharjah
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.87
1.84
-1.60%
14,190,452
26,063,782
0.68%
Commercial Bank International
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.08
1.26 16.67%
74,503,046
87,942,029
5.56%
First Gulf Bank
Banks & Fin Fin. Ser. Ser
14 95 14.95
18 25 22.07% 18.25 22 07%
53 561 316 53,561,316
907 752 495 907,752,495
3 90% 3.90%
Finance House
Banks & Fin. Ser.
4.32
6.00 38.89%
7,288,044
33,469,188
2.65%
Invest Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.90
1.80
-5.26%
5,042,565
8,430,738
0.44%
National Bank Of Abu Dhabi
Banks & Fin. Ser.
11.75
11.75
0.00%
18,238,236
219,268,227
National Bank of Fujairah
Banks & Fin. Ser.
5.00
5.00
0.00%
-
-
0.76% 0.00%
National Bank of Umm Al-Qaiwain
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.45
2.29
-6.53%
28,838,202
57,593,583
1.84%
Oman & Emirates Invest. Holding
Banks & Fin. Ser.
0.71
1.00 40.85%
10,868
8,484
0.01%
4,469,516
20,484,333
0.39%
31,150,308
29,358,038
1.28%
193,098
1,052,147
0.02%
34,555,127
115,426,663
1.52%
National Bank of Ras Al Khaima
Banks & Fin. Ser.
4.30
5.02 16.74%
Sharjah Islamic Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
0.95
0.93
United Arab Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
7.40
5.43 -26.62%
Union National Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
3.40
3.14
-7.65%
Waha Capital
Banks & Fin. Ser.
0.75
0.74
-1.33%
309,072,650
246,044,644
17.84%
AL DAR Properties
Real Estate
2.48
2.28
-8.06%
1,098,128,180
2,640,941,651
42.60%
-2.11%
p Ras Al Khaimah Properties
Real Estate
0.42
0.44
4.76%
710,796,750
340,217,399
35.54%
Sorouh Real Estate
Real Estate
1.76
1.63
-7.39%
488,487,751
843,046,830
18.61%
Etisalat
Telecommunication
10.75
10.80
0.47%
59,778,657
665,275,578
0.76%
Qatar Telecom (Qtel)
Telecommunication
170.00
176.00
3.53%
95,844
17,230,946
0.07%
Sudan Telecom.
Telecommunication
2.30
2.10
-8.70%
2,450,088
5,513,487
0.25%
Abu Dhabi National Hotels
Consumer
3.01
3.00
-0.33%
7,938,764
24,171,870
0.79%
AGTHIA Group
Consumer
2.26
2.15
-4.87%
26,075,257
57,992,785
4.35%
International Fish Farming
Consumer
7 90 7.90
8 00 8.00
1 27% 1.27%
32 543 32,543
264 881 264,881
0 07% 0.07%
Emirates Driving
Consumer
3.86
4.10
6.22%
4,533,926
17,674,889
5.05%
FOOD Holding Co.
Consumer
2.20
3.09 40.45%
36,060,222
99,953,118
36.06%
FUJAIRAH Trade Center
Consumer
0.00
0.00
Gulf Livestock Co
Consumer
7.27
7.27
0.00%
-
National Corp. for Tourism & Hotels
Consumer
7.00
6.62
-5.43%
92,500
0.00%
-
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
680,660
0.08%
Ras Al Khaimah Poultry & Feeding
Consumer
1.66
1.87 12.65%
750,253
1,251,331
0.87%
Arkan Building Materials
Construction
1.23
1.71 39.02%
131,001,446
248,625,100
7.49%
Fujairah Building Industries
Construction
4.66
3.74 -19.74%
70,000
276,150
Fujairah Cement Industries
Construction
3.00
3.00
Gulf Cement
Construction
1.80
1.58 -12.22%
0.00%
25,341,276
41,351,843
0.06% 0.00% 3.09%
Umm Al-Qaiwain Cement Industries
Construction
0.72
0.77
6.94%
28,492,877
21,859,491
7.85%
Ras Al Khaimah Cement
Construction
0.77
0.84
9.09%
408,495,124
370,920,920
84.40%
Ras Al Khaimah Ceramic
Construction
1.85
2.67 44.32%
8,483,897
17,909,768
1.26%
Ras Al Khaimah for White Cement & C Construction
1.15
1.40 21.74%
8,133,539
10,284,324
1.74%
Sharjah Cement & Industrial Dev.
Construction
0.98
0.88 -10.20%
30,526,533
30,406,709
5.52%
Union Cement
Construction
1.40
1.60 14.29%
1,072,497
1,562,988
0.16%
Al Buhaira National Insurance
Insurance
9.18
9.00
602,554
5,392,986
0.24% Page 3
-1.96%
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected]
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l Fourth Quarter 2010 KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co. ADX Stocks - The Quarter Activity Sheet Name
Sector
30-Sep-2010
30-Dec-2010
Change %
Abu Dhabi National Insurance
Insurance
6.25
6.96
0.11
Fujairah National Insurance
Insurance
300.00
300.00
0.00
Volume (Shares)
Value (in KWD)
1,253,884 -
Al Khazna Insurance
Insurance
0.84
0.78
(0.07)
Al Ain Ahlia Insurance
Insurance
47.00
47.00
0.00
7,447,021 -
Al Wathba National Insurance
Insurance
5 66 5.66
6 22 6.22
0 10 0.10
2 500 2,500
Shr Turnover Ratio
8,143,585 5,947,679 15 550 15,550
0.33% 0.00% 1.86% 0.00% 0 00% 0.00%
Al Dhafra Insurance
Insurance
4.10
4.50
0.10
1,101,895
4,777,741
1.47%
Emirates Insurance
Insurance
6.00
6.51
0.09
20,759,823
124,571,300
15.38%
Green Crescent Insurance
Insurance
0.57
0.76
0.33
217,107,134
191,054,714
86.84%
Methaq Takaful Insurance
Insurance
1.28
2.47
0.93
211,336,296
506,376,792
140.89%
Ras Al Khaimah National Insurance
Insurance
4.00
3.85
(0.04)
96,640
371,875
Sharjah Insurance
Insurance
5.25
5.25
0.00
-
-
0.10% 0.00%
Abu Dhabi National Takaful
Insurance
3.97
3.16
(0.20)
283,248
1,146,886
0.39%
United Insurance
Insurance
3.75
4.00
0.07
3,000
12,000
0.01%
Union Insurance
Insurance
2.48
2.21
(0.11)
954,502
1,952,460
0.29%
Dana Gas PJSC
Energy
0.83
0.73
(0.12)
877,441,618
686,509,797
13.29%
Abu Dhabi National Energy
Energy
1.33
1.48
0.11
58,522,519
87,003,573
0.94%
Abu Dhabi Aviation
Industrial
2.08
2.85
0.37
13,501,990
34,254,911
3.34%
p Buildingg Abu Dhabi Ship
0.12%
Industrial
3.86
2.67
((0.31))
244,285
703,392
Abu Dhabi National for Building Materi Industrial
1.82
1.78
(0.02)
780,619
1,372,156
0.26%
National Marine Dredging
Industrial
8.20
10.50
0.28
1,119,492
10,912,468
0.52%
Gulf Medical Projects
Health Care
2.78
1.95
(0.30)
574,720
1,074,317
0.10%
Gulf Pharmaceutical
Health Care
1.75
1.87
0.07
17,116,680
30,488,703
2.40% Page 4
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait T l ( 965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) Tel.:(+965) F ( 965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw k fi k [email protected] R h@k fi k
Legal DISCLAIMER: This report is being provided for informational purposes only and on the condition that it will not form a primary basis for any investment decision. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any of the securities that may be referred to herein. In no event will KMEFIC be liable for any loss occurring from investment decisions made based on the recommendation here-enclosed. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors should make their own decision on whether or not to buy or sell the securities covered herein based upon their specific investment goals and in consultation with their financial advisor. KMEFIC has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise make any notification or announcement thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. The inclusion of any opinions/estimates does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them. Many areas of the report contain opinions and/or analysis that represent the involved analysts' views; neither the analysts nor KMEFIC shall be in any way liable for their opinions expressed in the report. This report has been prepared and issued by the Research Department @ Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co. K.S.C.C. (KMEFIC), a licensed Kuwaiti investment company regulated by the Central Bank of Kuwait. KMEFIC prepared this report using publicly available information, internal data, and other sources considered reliable; however, KMEFIC makes no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability with respect to the report or the information, analysis, opinions, or related graphics contained on the report for any purpose. While great care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate, neither KMEFIC nor any of its employees shall be in any way responsible for the contents Neither this document nor any of its contents may be distributed in any jurisdiction where its distribution is restricted by law. contents. law Neither this document nor its content may be copied, copied transmitted or distributed without the prior written consent of KMEFIC. Additional information on the contents of this report is available on request.
