ADMIS Morning Grain comments December 28, 2010
ADMIS Morning Grain comments
December 28, 2010
Grain futures are called higher. Sharply lower dollar is helping grain futures overnight. SH is up 7 cents and near 13.92. SH high was near 13.97. Are we ready for 14.00 soybeans? Bulls contend that SH price objective is now near 14.50. SX11 is near 12.93(+9). SN11-SX11 spread made new highs overnight and near +108. In 1973, the spread traded over +500. CH is up 3 cents and near 6.19. Bulls also contend CH objective is now near 6.50. CZ11 is near 5.55(+1). CN11-CZ11 spread also made new highs near +74. In 1996, the spread traded over +180. WH is up 8 cents and near 7.88. WN11 is near 8.28(+9). Interesting to note that since August, WH has been in a range between 7.00 and 8.00. Total premium for the March 7.00 put and 8.50 call is near 34 cents or total value of $1700 per 5,000 bushel contract. Dollar gapped lower and through key support on year end profit taking. Crude is a little higher. Equities, softs and metals are also starting higher. Egypt announced a tender for HRW and SRW. There is 12 trading days until the USDA Jan crop, stocks and winter wheat report. Some traders are still worried about a repeat of the November report which was bearish corn and turned soybean and wheat futures also lower. Bullish report though could attract new speculative buying esp in corn. US Midwest 6-10 day weather outlook calls for normal to above temps and normal to above rainfall. US south plains winter wheat 6-10 day forecast though calls for below normal rainfall. Weather remains mostly favorable across most of Brazil soybean growing areas. Most 2011 crop est are near USDA last est of 67.5 mmt vs 69.0 ly. 20-30 pct of Argentina crop areas remain drier than normal. One private crop watcher lowered his est of Argentina 2001 soybean crop to near 48.0 mmt vs USDA est of 52.0. The decline due mostly to a lower est of planted acres. They est Argentina 2011 corn production near 21.5 mmt vs USDA est of 25.0. Traditional funds bought 5,000 soybeans on Monday and are estimated to be long about 182,000 contracts. They are net long 40,600 soymeal(+2) and 59,000 soyoil (+2). Funds bought 4,000 contracts of corn and are net long 384,700. Funds sold 2,000 Chicago wheat and are net long 37,000 contracts. Index funds are net long 316,500 corn (+5), 183,300 wheat (-1) and 159,000 soybeans (+6). Commercials are net short 647,000 corn (+25), 185,000 wheat (+3) and 304,800 soybeans (+12). China May soybean futures closed up 27 cents and near 17.10. China May corn futures closed down 1 cent and near 8.37. Malaysian palmoil futures rallied 22 ringgits due to excessive rains in Malaysia and Indonesia raising concern about production there. Europe wheat futures remain firm on slow domestic cash movement.
Freed 141 West Jackson Blvd. Suite 1600A Chicago, IL 60604 www.admis.com
The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. (“ADMIS”) and NOT Archer Daniels Midland Company. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of ADM Investor Services, Inc. is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
December 28, 2010
Grain futures are called higher. Sharply lower dollar is helping grain futures overnight. SH is up 7 cents and near 13.92. SH high was near 13.97. Are we ready for 14.00 soybeans? Bulls contend that SH price objective is now near 14.50. SX11 is near 12.93(+9). SN11-SX11 spread made new highs overnight and near +108. In 1973, the spread traded over +500. CH is up 3 cents and near 6.19. Bulls also contend CH objective is now near 6.50. CZ11 is near 5.55(+1). CN11-CZ11 spread also made new highs near +74. In 1996, the spread traded over +180. WH is up 8 cents and near 7.88. WN11 is near 8.28(+9). Interesting to note that since August, WH has been in a range between 7.00 and 8.00. Total premium for the March 7.00 put and 8.50 call is near 34 cents or total value of $1700 per 5,000 bushel contract. Dollar gapped lower and through key support on year end profit taking. Crude is a little higher. Equities, softs and metals are also starting higher. Egypt announced a tender for HRW and SRW. There is 12 trading days until the USDA Jan crop, stocks and winter wheat report. Some traders are still worried about a repeat of the November report which was bearish corn and turned soybean and wheat futures also lower. Bullish report though could attract new speculative buying esp in corn. US Midwest 6-10 day weather outlook calls for normal to above temps and normal to above rainfall. US south plains winter wheat 6-10 day forecast though calls for below normal rainfall. Weather remains mostly favorable across most of Brazil soybean growing areas. Most 2011 crop est are near USDA last est of 67.5 mmt vs 69.0 ly. 20-30 pct of Argentina crop areas remain drier than normal. One private crop watcher lowered his est of Argentina 2001 soybean crop to near 48.0 mmt vs USDA est of 52.0. The decline due mostly to a lower est of planted acres. They est Argentina 2011 corn production near 21.5 mmt vs USDA est of 25.0. Traditional funds bought 5,000 soybeans on Monday and are estimated to be long about 182,000 contracts. They are net long 40,600 soymeal(+2) and 59,000 soyoil (+2). Funds bought 4,000 contracts of corn and are net long 384,700. Funds sold 2,000 Chicago wheat and are net long 37,000 contracts. Index funds are net long 316,500 corn (+5), 183,300 wheat (-1) and 159,000 soybeans (+6). Commercials are net short 647,000 corn (+25), 185,000 wheat (+3) and 304,800 soybeans (+12). China May soybean futures closed up 27 cents and near 17.10. China May corn futures closed down 1 cent and near 8.37. Malaysian palmoil futures rallied 22 ringgits due to excessive rains in Malaysia and Indonesia raising concern about production there. Europe wheat futures remain firm on slow domestic cash movement.
Freed 141 West Jackson Blvd. Suite 1600A Chicago, IL 60604 www.admis.com
The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. (“ADMIS”) and NOT Archer Daniels Midland Company. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of ADM Investor Services, Inc. is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
