Advanced Petrochemical Co. Investment Update
July 2015
We update our earnings estimates for 2015/16 on Higher utilization rates, stable product price outlook, and above than expected Q2-2015 result.
Please read Disclaimer on the back
‘Overweight ’
Recommendation Previous Target Price (SAR)
59.70
Q2-2015 net profit of SAR 243.0mn exceeded all market expectations:
Current Price* (SAR)
55.0
Q2-15 earnings came with a positive surprise and showed a deviation
New Target Price (SAR)
61.70
of 27.9% from the market consensus of SAR 190mn. Advanced
Upside / (Downside)
12.2%
Petrochemical posted net income of SAR 243.0mn; (EPS; SAR1.48); indicating an increase of 31.6%YoY and 171.1%QoQ. YoY growth was mainly associated with i) increase in the final product price ii) lower
*prices as of 08th of July 2015
Key Financials
growth in feedstock price iii) higher volumetric sales growth, as we
SARmn (unless specified)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
expect that sales volume was positively affected by higher production
Revenues Growth % Net Income Growth % EPS
3,036 9.0% 751 34.9% 4.58
2,501 -17.6% 709 -5.6% 4.31
2,757 10.3% 696 -1.8% 4.25
efficiency after the maintenance in Q1-2015. In addition, the QoQ noticeable growth is mainly attributed to a three-week planned plant shutdown and lower product prices in Q1-2015. Gross profit stood at SAR 264.0mn depicting an increase of 36.9%YoY, and 137.6%QoQ, which we believe was due to stronger growth in Polypropylene prices compare to Naphtha that revived profit margins. We expect the company’s sales in 2015 to continue its growth trajectory, due to expected higher utilization rate of more than 120% in the coming quarter. Our estimates and valuation: Based on the positive surprise Q2-2015 result, we adjust our valuation and raised our 12-month price to SAR61.7/share; indicating a potential upside of 12.2% over current market price of SAR55.0/ share (as of 8th July 2015). We therefore remain ‘Overweight’ for the stock. The company is trading at forward PE and P/B of 12.8x and 3.26x respectively based on our 2015 earnings forecast.
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Key Ratios SARmn (unless specified)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin P/E P/B EV/EBITDA (x) ROE ROA Dividend Yield
25.7% 31.3% 24.7% 9.63 3.04x 6.62
31.8% 37.3% 28.4% 12.75 3.26x 8.81
28.4% 33.6% 25.3% 12.95 2.90x 8.90
31.6%
25.6%
22.4%
19.6%
17.1%
15.4%
6.8%
3.6%
3.6%
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Shareholders Pattern Higher utilization rates helped exceed estimates: In 1Q2015,
Shareholders Pattern
Advanced Petrochemical announced scheduled maintenance of its
General Organization for Social Insurance Polypropylene National Company Ltd. Public
propylene and polypropylene plants from 1st of March for a period of three weeks. The plant resumed operations on 23rd of March after 21
was operating the plant at around 120% capacity utilization during 2Q2015. We believe the consensus estimate did not account for a gain in operational efficiency; thus, the company’s net income of SAR 243mn (up 31.6% YoY and 171.1% QoQ) was ahead of the consensus estimate of SAR 190mn. In 2Q2015, Advanced Petrochemical’s gross profit rose 36.9% YoY and 137.6% QoQ to SAR 264mn, and operating profit increased 38.7% YoY and 153.1% QoQ to SAR 254mn (the company is yet to publish its detailed financials for 2Q2015). Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248
[email protected] 6.37% 7.95% 85.68%
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
days of shutdown. We expect that production efficiency has increased after the maintenance and anticipated that Advanced Petrochemical
Holding
Company Overview: The Company was founded in 2005. Advanced Company manages an integrated complex in Al-Jubail city which produces Propylene & Polypropylene with a production capacity of 500 thousand tons annually. In September 2014, Advanced Petrochemical announced it would invest in a 600-ktpa propane dehydrogenation (PDH) project in South Korea via its subsidiary, Advanced Global Investment Company (AGIC), and hold 33.25% stake in the project. Geographic Revenue Breakdown - 2014 China Asia India Turkey Other
13.03%
14.04%
33.06%
14.46% 25.41%
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
1
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Advanced Petrochemical Co. Investment Update
July 2015
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Increasing polypropylene-naphtha spread to boost margins in 2Q2015: In 2Q2015, naphtha (feedstock) prices increased 13.5% QoQ to USD 568 per MT from USD 500 per MT in 1Q2015. Due to favorable demand and supply and higher feedstock prices, polypropylene prices registered stronger growth than Naphtha and rose 18.5% QoQ to USD 1,237 per MT from USD 1,044 per MT. This led to a 23.0% QoQ gain in the polypropylene-naphtha spread. On a YoY basis, the polypropylene-naphtha spread expanded 27.6%, driven by a surge in demand amid low feedstock prices. We believe that the company’s 2Q2015 performance has benefited more from the higher polypropylene-naphtha spread and we expect the company to continue recording improvement in profit margin for coming quarters. Advanced Petrochemical to cater to global markets through PDH plant in South Korea: In September 2014, Advanced Petrochemical announced it would invest in a 600-ktpa propane dehydrogenation (PDH) project in South Korea via its subsidiary, Advanced Global Investment Company (AGIC), and hold 33.25% stake in the project. The company expects to start commercial operations in the plant by the end of 2016. Expanding population base, improving lifestyle, rapid industrialization, and robust economic growth have resulted in substantial growth in the demand for propylene in developing markets. Global demand for propylene increased over the last decade due to increased consumption by enduse industries across the world. South Korea accounts for a major share in propylene exports in the global propylene market. We believe Advanced Petrochemical with its AGIC investment is well positioned to cater to growing global demand for propylene. Positive price outlook for main product: Advanced Petrochemical derives its revenue from the production of Propylene
Polypropylene (PP) - Asia 1,600
Polypropylene, we believe the company benefited substantially from the price recovery and the prices movements spread between
1,400
the medium term.
2
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Feb-15
May-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
Feb-14
May-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
supply by 2.28mt in 2015. We expect prices to remain broadly stable in
800
Feb-13
is a concern, industry sources estimate global demand for PP to exceed
1,000
May-13
holiday. Although robust capacity addition in China and the Middle East
Nov-12
expectations of an increase in demand after China’s Lunar New Year
1,200
Aug-12
increased 13% YTD. We believe this gain in prices is primarily driven by
(USD/ Mt)
feedstock vs final product. In the propylene (PP) segment, prices have
Feb-12
tons annually. As the majority of total revenue is contributed by
May-12
& Polypropylene with a production capacity of 500 thousand
Source: Aljazira Capital, Bloomberg
RESEARCH DIVISION
AGM - Head of Research
Abdullah Alawi +966 11 2256250
[email protected] Analyst
Sultan Al Kadi
+966 11 2256115
[email protected] +966 11 2256374
[email protected] General manager - brokerage services and sales
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
Ala’a Al-Yousef
brokerage
Brokerage
+966 11 2256000
[email protected] Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani
+966 11 2256277
[email protected] +966 12 6618400
[email protected] AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
AGM - Head of Institutional Brokerage
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Samer Al- Joauni
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547
[email protected] +966 1 225 6352
[email protected] Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248
[email protected] BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Analyst
+966 11 2256364
[email protected] AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Senior Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
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