Airports of Thailand
Airports of Thailand Outperform (FY16E TP Bt400)
Company Update
Close Bt387
Transport & Logistics April 12, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Better statistics and earnings continue Price Performance (%)
Maintain “Outperform” with DCF‐based TP of Bt400 In our view, AOT’s share price is currently being pressured owing to the start of the SBIA expansion, which is creating a huge CAPEX concern for investors. However, we believe the project will not dampen AOT’s financial status in FY16‐17E. We thus maintain our “Outperform” rating with the DCF‐based TP of Bt400 for AOT. Two‐digit passenger volume growth continued before big holiday Passenger volume at AOT’s six airports for 1‐9 April 2016 prior to the big “Songkran” holiday in Thailand still showed two‐digit growth of +12% YoY, supported by both international and domestic passengers. The growth figures accelerated compared to Mar‐16 owing to the start of the peak season for domestic tourism. The better growth of international passengers likely came from Chinese tourist arrivals for the Songkran holiday. For 1HFY16, AOT recorded passenger volume growth of +12.8% (vs. our projection of +11% for the whole year).
Source: SET Smart Consensus EPS (Bt) KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
FY16
FY17
13.369
15.455
2.3%
3.1%
AOT.BK/AOT TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,428.57
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
553.00/15,764.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
30.00/13.86
52 week High / Low (Bt)
430.00/252.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
3,627.00 4.83
Estimated free float (%)
29.99
Beta
0.89
URL
www.airportthai.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
Net profit in 2QFY16E to continue expanding We expect AOT to report net profit of Bt5.5bn in 2QFY16E (Jan‐Mar 16), based on passenger volume of 32.3mn (+14% YoY, +12% QoQ) and aircraft movements of 197,903 flights (+10% YoY, +3% QoQ). Earnings should continue expanding owing mainly to traffic volume growth and an operating margin increase thanks to high operating leverage. AOT is likely to have booked a slight FX loss in the quarter owing to the depreciation of the Thai baht compared to the Japanese yen. SBIA phase II expansion will not dampen financial status in FY16‐17E AOT will start the construction of the Suvarnabhumi International Airport (SBIA) expansion valued at Bt61.7bn in Aug‐16. The construction contract will be split into seven contracts: four contracts will start tendering in 2016 while the rest will proceed next year. Currently, two contracts valued at Bt16.7bn have started the bidding process and are likely to be awarded to contractors by Jul‐16. The project will expand SBIA’s passenger capacity to 60mn vs. 45mn currently. Although AOT targets the construction to be finished in 2019, we expect it to be delayed to 2021. We thus believe the huge CAPEX will likely start in 2018 onwards. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 30 Sep Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 30 Sep Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
FY14 37,585 12,220 8.55 12,029 8.42 21.08 3.40 67.93 FY14 45.96 26.24 5.70 0.88 12.75 cash
FY15 43,969 18,729 13.11 15,755 11.03 30.97 6.54 76.01 FY15 35.09 20.14 5.09 1.69 15.32 cash
FY16E 49,348 19,537 13.68 19,537 13.68 24.00 6.82 82.86 FY16E 28.30 17.14 4.67 1.76 17.22 cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
FY17E 54,519 22,761 15.93 22,761 15.93 16.50 7.95 90.85 FY17E 24.29 15.16 4.26 2.05 18.34 cash
FY18E 58,992 25,158 17.61 25,158 17.61 10.53 8.79 99.67 FY18E 21.98 14.20 3.88 2.27 18.49 cash
Figure 1: Summary of assumptions for DCF‐based valuation for AOT 5.00 14.50 9.50 12.80 30.00 3.00 10.00
Risk‐free rate (Rf) % Market return (Rm)% Market risk premium (Rm‐Rf) % Cost of equity (Ke) % Debt‐to‐capital ratio (%) Perpetual growth rate (%) WACC (%)
Present value of free cash flow (FY16‐29E) Present value of terminal value Total present value of FCF Less: net debt (cash) as of end‐FY16E Total equity value Outstanding shares at end‐FY16E Equity value / share (Bt)
(Btmn) 246,370 296,702 543,073 (28,405) 571,478 1,429 400
Source: KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Peer comparison COUNTRY
Mkt Cap US$m
15
PER (x) 16E
17E
15
PBV (x) 16E
17E
15
Yield (%) 16E
17E
15
ROE (%) 16E
17E
EV/EBITDA (x) 15
16E
17E
11,476
49.8
51.6
44.7
10.7
13.3
18.1
4.0
4.5
4.9
20.0
23.8
37.7
21.9
20.4
19.0 n.a.
Sydney Airport
Australia
HNA Infrastructure
China
498
8.8
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Beijing Capital Intl
China
4,914
18.4
17.7
15.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.2
2.2
2.6
9.3
9.6
10.3
9.1
9.0
8.5
Shanghai International
China
8,663
22.5
19.2
16.8
2.8
2.5
2.3
1.5
1.6
1.9
13.1
13.5
13.9
14.9
12.2
10.7
Shenzhen Airport
China
2,566
29.8
25.7
21.2
1.6
1.5
1.4
0.6
0.8
1.1
5.8
5.9
6.9
11.6
11.7
10.0
Xiamen Intl.
China
965
15.7
14.1
13.4
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.7
2.0
2.2
13.2
13.2
12.9
8.6
8.1
7.7
Guangzhou Baiyun Intl
China
2,221
11.6
11.4
11.2
1.5
1.5
1.3
2.0
2.4
2.4
13.9
13.1
12.0
5.4
5.1
5.1
United Arrow
Japan
1,167
17.9
17.3
15.5
3.5
3.7
3.2
2.2
1.9
2.1
20.2
21.9
22.2
8.6
9.5
8.8
Malaysia Airports Holdings
Malaysia
2,695
n.a.
92.8
49.7
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.0
1.4
‐0.2
1.1
2.3
10.8
10.6
9.9
Singapore Airport Terminal
Singapore
3,292
17.6
19.8
18.5
2.4
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.8
4.1
13.7
15.0
15.3
12.9
14.5
13.7
Average (simple)
21.4
30.0
22.9
3.0
3.4
3.7
2.1
2.3
2.5
12.1
13.0
14.8
11.5
11.2
10.4
Source: KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: 2QFY16E earnings preview Profit / Loss Year‐end 30 Sep Revenue Operating expenses Operating profit EBITDA Interest expenses Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extra items Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Operating margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt/equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%) Statistics Passenger volume (mn) Aircraft (‘000 flights)
2QFY15 11,627 (5,734) 5,894 7,313 (401) 364 (1,114) 155 ‐ 4,890 4,735 3.42
1QFY16 11,814 (5,951) 5,863 7,443 (361) 341 (1,229) 22 ‐ 4,626 4,604 3.24
2QFY16E 13,104 (6,215) 6,889 8,498 (349) 350 (1,345) (73) ‐ 5,462 5,535 3.82
% YoY 12.7 8.4 16.9 16.2 (13.0) (3.7) 20.7 (147.3) ‐ 11.7 16.9 11.7
% QoQ 10.9 4.4 17.5 14.2 (3.4) 2.7 9.4 (430.8) ‐ 18.1 20.2 18.1
1HFY16E 24,918 (12,166) 12,752 15,941 (710) 691 (2,574) (51) ‐ 10,088 10,139 7.06
% YoY 12.4 7.0 18.1 16.3 (13.7) (6.6) 15.5 (115.7) ‐ 14.6 19.6 14.6
50.7 62.9 42.1 3.0 14.7 0.3 70.3 18.9 28.42 180,789
49.6 63.0 39.2 3.8 16.2 0.3 79.0 16.7 28.93 191,359
52.6 64.8 41.7
51.2 64.0 40.5
32.32 197,903
13.7 9.5
11.7 3.4
FY16E 49,348 (25,186) 24,162 30,596 (1,453) 1,745 (4,891) ‐ ‐ 19,537 19,537 13.68
YTD (% of 16E) 50.5 48.3 52.8 52.1 48.8 39.6 52.6 ‐ ‐ 51.6 51.9 51.6
49.0 62.0 39.6 3.8 16.6 0.2 82.9 17.2
Source: AOT, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
Figure 4: Passenger volume and aircraft movement growth trend (%YoY) for AOT’s six airports Passenger volume Apr‐15 May‐15 Jun‐15 Jul‐15 Aug‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐15 Nov‐15 Dec‐15 Jan‐16 Feb‐16 Mar 16 * 1‐9 Apr‐16 * Flight movements Apr‐15 May‐15 Jun‐15 Jul‐15 Aug‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐15 Nov‐15 Dec‐15 Jan‐16 Feb‐16 Mar 16 * 1‐9 Apr‐16 *
International 22.3 29.7 42.2 36.2 24.3 9.9 7.3 7.3 8.8 13.8 15.9 11.5 12.1 13.8 16.4 25.0 28.3 25.0 17.5 13.4 9.9 11.0 11.7 13.6 8.2 8.0
Total Domestic
Total
20.0 28.3 32.2 30.5 23.1 22.4 16.9 21.4 13.1 15.9 17.2 8.5 11.7
21.3 29.1 37.8 33.7 23.8 15.1 11.5 13.1 10.6 14.7 16.4 10.2 11.9
16.1 20.6 25.7 25.7 22.3 20.8 14.6 14.0 9.2 8.3 11.6 3.5 8.9
14.9 18.4 25.3 27.1 23.7 19.1 14.0 11.8 10.1 10.1 12.6 5.9 8.4
International 27.8 34.8 50.7 45.5 39.4 22.0 22.1 26.7 30.6 35.6 38.0 18.4 20.5 31.9 41.2 38.5 30.5 25.9 23.4 23.7 22.1 23.9
LCC Domestic
Total
25.3 33.7 37.8 36.5 30.0 28.4 19.8 23.6 15.2 19.1 15.8
26.0 34.0 41.9 39.3 32.9 26.4 20.5 24.6 20.2 24.3 22.9
23.8 28.9 35.0 33.9 30.5 32.1 15.7 14.0 8.6 9.1 7.5
22.0 26.2 34.0 36.2 33.0 31.6 18.8 16.9 13.2 13.2 12.7
Source: AOT Note: *Preliminary
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Operating profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expenses Equity earnings Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Minority interests Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital FX, non‐cash adjustment & others Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Core EPS growth (%) Operating margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt to capital employed (x) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)
FY13 36,810 (21,747) 15,064 0 19,839 (4,775) 15,064 (1,977) 0 8,139 21,226 (4,869) (9) 16,347 11.44 11.44 9,935 6.95 4.60
FY14 37,585 (22,493) 15,093 0 20,743 (5,650) 15,093 (1,836) 0 2,012 15,269 (3,007) (42) 12,220 8.55 8.55 12,029 8.42 3.40
FY15 43,969 (23,539) 20,430 0 26,618 (6,188) 20,430 (1,605) 0 4,511 23,335 (4,585) (21) 18,729 13.11 13.11 15,755 11.03 4.38
FY16E 49,348 (25,186) 24,162 0 30,596 (6,434) 24,162 (1,453) 0 1,745 24,454 (4,891) (27) 19,537 13.68 13.68 19,537 13.68 6.82
FY13 39,271 206 91,406 22,177 153,061 4,460 37,325 61,321 161 91,579 153,061
FY14 43,203 195 94,282 16,109 153,789 3,971 30,638 56,541 203 97,044 153,789
FY15 48,490 238 95,253 15,643 159,624 4,228 27,493 50,812 225 108,588 159,624
FY16E 55,918 234 93,364 15,829 165,345 3,840 23,673 46,768 198 118,378 165,345
FY13 16,347 4,775 5,066 (6,095) 20,094 (4,176) (4,125) (8,301) (7,607) 0 (2,571) 0 (10,178) 1,615 11,793 8.26
FY14 12,220 5,650 1,033 38 18,941 (9,559) 3,627 (5,932) (6,008) 0 (6,571) 0 (12,578) 431 13,010 9.11
FY15 18,729 6,188 186 (197) 24,906 (6,835) (9,244) (16,079) (5,734) 0 (7,057) 0 (12,790) (3,963) 8,827 6.18
FY16E 19,537 6,434 (18) 0 25,953 (6,458) 0 (6,458) (4,208) 0 (7,859) 0 (12,067) 7,428 19,495 13.65
FY13 20.8 28.9 51.7 40.9 53.9 44.4 27.0 22.9 20.8
FY14 2.1 4.6 21.1 40.2 55.2 32.5 32.0 19.7 2.1
FY15 17.0 28.3 31.0 46.5 60.5 42.6 35.8 19.6 17.0
FY16E 12.2 14.9 24.0 49.0 62.0 39.6 39.6 20.0 12.2
FY13 0.31 0.03 7.57
FY14 0.26 cash 9.66
FY15 0.23 cash 13.73
FY16E 0.19 cash 17.69
FY17E 54,519 (26,607) 27,911 0 34,346 (6,434) 27,911 (1,302) 0 1,880 28,490 (5,698) (31) 22,761 15.93 15.93 22,761 15.93 7.95
FY18E 58,992 (28,073) 30,918 0 37,306 (6,387) 30,918 (1,153) 0 1,725 31,490 (6,298) (34) 25,158 17.61 17.61 25,158 17.61 8.79
FY17E 55,956 253 100,961 15,937 173,107 3,840 19,853 43,156 167 129,785 173,108
FY18E 42,836 274 122,878 15,899 181,887 3,729 16,033 39,361 133 142,392 181,886
FY17E 22,761 6,434 81 0 29,276 (15,672) 0 (15,672) (3,820) 0 (9,746) 0 (13,566) 38 13,604 9.52
FY18E 25,158 6,387 153 0 31,698 (29,533) 0 (29,533) (3,931) 0 (11,354) 0 (15,286) (13,120) 2,165 1.52
FY17E 10.5 12.3 16.5 51.2 63.0 41.7 41.7 20.0 10.5
FY18E 8.2 8.6 10.5 52.4 63.2 42.6 42.6 20.0 8.2
FY17E 0.15 cash 22.01
FY18E 0.12 cash 26.89
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt387
Transport & Logistics April 12, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Better statistics and earnings continue Price Performance (%)
Maintain “Outperform” with DCF‐based TP of Bt400 In our view, AOT’s share price is currently being pressured owing to the start of the SBIA expansion, which is creating a huge CAPEX concern for investors. However, we believe the project will not dampen AOT’s financial status in FY16‐17E. We thus maintain our “Outperform” rating with the DCF‐based TP of Bt400 for AOT. Two‐digit passenger volume growth continued before big holiday Passenger volume at AOT’s six airports for 1‐9 April 2016 prior to the big “Songkran” holiday in Thailand still showed two‐digit growth of +12% YoY, supported by both international and domestic passengers. The growth figures accelerated compared to Mar‐16 owing to the start of the peak season for domestic tourism. The better growth of international passengers likely came from Chinese tourist arrivals for the Songkran holiday. For 1HFY16, AOT recorded passenger volume growth of +12.8% (vs. our projection of +11% for the whole year).
Source: SET Smart Consensus EPS (Bt) KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
FY16
FY17
13.369
15.455
2.3%
3.1%
AOT.BK/AOT TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,428.57
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
553.00/15,764.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
30.00/13.86
52 week High / Low (Bt)
430.00/252.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
3,627.00 4.83
Estimated free float (%)
29.99
Beta
0.89
URL
www.airportthai.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
Net profit in 2QFY16E to continue expanding We expect AOT to report net profit of Bt5.5bn in 2QFY16E (Jan‐Mar 16), based on passenger volume of 32.3mn (+14% YoY, +12% QoQ) and aircraft movements of 197,903 flights (+10% YoY, +3% QoQ). Earnings should continue expanding owing mainly to traffic volume growth and an operating margin increase thanks to high operating leverage. AOT is likely to have booked a slight FX loss in the quarter owing to the depreciation of the Thai baht compared to the Japanese yen. SBIA phase II expansion will not dampen financial status in FY16‐17E AOT will start the construction of the Suvarnabhumi International Airport (SBIA) expansion valued at Bt61.7bn in Aug‐16. The construction contract will be split into seven contracts: four contracts will start tendering in 2016 while the rest will proceed next year. Currently, two contracts valued at Bt16.7bn have started the bidding process and are likely to be awarded to contractors by Jul‐16. The project will expand SBIA’s passenger capacity to 60mn vs. 45mn currently. Although AOT targets the construction to be finished in 2019, we expect it to be delayed to 2021. We thus believe the huge CAPEX will likely start in 2018 onwards. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 30 Sep Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 30 Sep Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
FY14 37,585 12,220 8.55 12,029 8.42 21.08 3.40 67.93 FY14 45.96 26.24 5.70 0.88 12.75 cash
FY15 43,969 18,729 13.11 15,755 11.03 30.97 6.54 76.01 FY15 35.09 20.14 5.09 1.69 15.32 cash
FY16E 49,348 19,537 13.68 19,537 13.68 24.00 6.82 82.86 FY16E 28.30 17.14 4.67 1.76 17.22 cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
FY17E 54,519 22,761 15.93 22,761 15.93 16.50 7.95 90.85 FY17E 24.29 15.16 4.26 2.05 18.34 cash
FY18E 58,992 25,158 17.61 25,158 17.61 10.53 8.79 99.67 FY18E 21.98 14.20 3.88 2.27 18.49 cash
Figure 1: Summary of assumptions for DCF‐based valuation for AOT 5.00 14.50 9.50 12.80 30.00 3.00 10.00
Risk‐free rate (Rf) % Market return (Rm)% Market risk premium (Rm‐Rf) % Cost of equity (Ke) % Debt‐to‐capital ratio (%) Perpetual growth rate (%) WACC (%)
Present value of free cash flow (FY16‐29E) Present value of terminal value Total present value of FCF Less: net debt (cash) as of end‐FY16E Total equity value Outstanding shares at end‐FY16E Equity value / share (Bt)
(Btmn) 246,370 296,702 543,073 (28,405) 571,478 1,429 400
Source: KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Peer comparison COUNTRY
Mkt Cap US$m
15
PER (x) 16E
17E
15
PBV (x) 16E
17E
15
Yield (%) 16E
17E
15
ROE (%) 16E
17E
EV/EBITDA (x) 15
16E
17E
11,476
49.8
51.6
44.7
10.7
13.3
18.1
4.0
4.5
4.9
20.0
23.8
37.7
21.9
20.4
19.0 n.a.
Sydney Airport
Australia
HNA Infrastructure
China
498
8.8
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Beijing Capital Intl
China
4,914
18.4
17.7
15.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.2
2.2
2.6
9.3
9.6
10.3
9.1
9.0
8.5
Shanghai International
China
8,663
22.5
19.2
16.8
2.8
2.5
2.3
1.5
1.6
1.9
13.1
13.5
13.9
14.9
12.2
10.7
Shenzhen Airport
China
2,566
29.8
25.7
21.2
1.6
1.5
1.4
0.6
0.8
1.1
5.8
5.9
6.9
11.6
11.7
10.0
Xiamen Intl.
China
965
15.7
14.1
13.4
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.7
2.0
2.2
13.2
13.2
12.9
8.6
8.1
7.7
Guangzhou Baiyun Intl
China
2,221
11.6
11.4
11.2
1.5
1.5
1.3
2.0
2.4
2.4
13.9
13.1
12.0
5.4
5.1
5.1
United Arrow
Japan
1,167
17.9
17.3
15.5
3.5
3.7
3.2
2.2
1.9
2.1
20.2
21.9
22.2
8.6
9.5
8.8
Malaysia Airports Holdings
Malaysia
2,695
n.a.
92.8
49.7
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.0
1.4
‐0.2
1.1
2.3
10.8
10.6
9.9
Singapore Airport Terminal
Singapore
3,292
17.6
19.8
18.5
2.4
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.8
4.1
13.7
15.0
15.3
12.9
14.5
13.7
Average (simple)
21.4
30.0
22.9
3.0
3.4
3.7
2.1
2.3
2.5
12.1
13.0
14.8
11.5
11.2
10.4
Source: KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: 2QFY16E earnings preview Profit / Loss Year‐end 30 Sep Revenue Operating expenses Operating profit EBITDA Interest expenses Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extra items Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Operating margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt/equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%) Statistics Passenger volume (mn) Aircraft (‘000 flights)
2QFY15 11,627 (5,734) 5,894 7,313 (401) 364 (1,114) 155 ‐ 4,890 4,735 3.42
1QFY16 11,814 (5,951) 5,863 7,443 (361) 341 (1,229) 22 ‐ 4,626 4,604 3.24
2QFY16E 13,104 (6,215) 6,889 8,498 (349) 350 (1,345) (73) ‐ 5,462 5,535 3.82
% YoY 12.7 8.4 16.9 16.2 (13.0) (3.7) 20.7 (147.3) ‐ 11.7 16.9 11.7
% QoQ 10.9 4.4 17.5 14.2 (3.4) 2.7 9.4 (430.8) ‐ 18.1 20.2 18.1
1HFY16E 24,918 (12,166) 12,752 15,941 (710) 691 (2,574) (51) ‐ 10,088 10,139 7.06
% YoY 12.4 7.0 18.1 16.3 (13.7) (6.6) 15.5 (115.7) ‐ 14.6 19.6 14.6
50.7 62.9 42.1 3.0 14.7 0.3 70.3 18.9 28.42 180,789
49.6 63.0 39.2 3.8 16.2 0.3 79.0 16.7 28.93 191,359
52.6 64.8 41.7
51.2 64.0 40.5
32.32 197,903
13.7 9.5
11.7 3.4
FY16E 49,348 (25,186) 24,162 30,596 (1,453) 1,745 (4,891) ‐ ‐ 19,537 19,537 13.68
YTD (% of 16E) 50.5 48.3 52.8 52.1 48.8 39.6 52.6 ‐ ‐ 51.6 51.9 51.6
49.0 62.0 39.6 3.8 16.6 0.2 82.9 17.2
Source: AOT, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
Figure 4: Passenger volume and aircraft movement growth trend (%YoY) for AOT’s six airports Passenger volume Apr‐15 May‐15 Jun‐15 Jul‐15 Aug‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐15 Nov‐15 Dec‐15 Jan‐16 Feb‐16 Mar 16 * 1‐9 Apr‐16 * Flight movements Apr‐15 May‐15 Jun‐15 Jul‐15 Aug‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐15 Nov‐15 Dec‐15 Jan‐16 Feb‐16 Mar 16 * 1‐9 Apr‐16 *
International 22.3 29.7 42.2 36.2 24.3 9.9 7.3 7.3 8.8 13.8 15.9 11.5 12.1 13.8 16.4 25.0 28.3 25.0 17.5 13.4 9.9 11.0 11.7 13.6 8.2 8.0
Total Domestic
Total
20.0 28.3 32.2 30.5 23.1 22.4 16.9 21.4 13.1 15.9 17.2 8.5 11.7
21.3 29.1 37.8 33.7 23.8 15.1 11.5 13.1 10.6 14.7 16.4 10.2 11.9
16.1 20.6 25.7 25.7 22.3 20.8 14.6 14.0 9.2 8.3 11.6 3.5 8.9
14.9 18.4 25.3 27.1 23.7 19.1 14.0 11.8 10.1 10.1 12.6 5.9 8.4
International 27.8 34.8 50.7 45.5 39.4 22.0 22.1 26.7 30.6 35.6 38.0 18.4 20.5 31.9 41.2 38.5 30.5 25.9 23.4 23.7 22.1 23.9
LCC Domestic
Total
25.3 33.7 37.8 36.5 30.0 28.4 19.8 23.6 15.2 19.1 15.8
26.0 34.0 41.9 39.3 32.9 26.4 20.5 24.6 20.2 24.3 22.9
23.8 28.9 35.0 33.9 30.5 32.1 15.7 14.0 8.6 9.1 7.5
22.0 26.2 34.0 36.2 33.0 31.6 18.8 16.9 13.2 13.2 12.7
Source: AOT Note: *Preliminary
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Operating profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expenses Equity earnings Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Minority interests Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital FX, non‐cash adjustment & others Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Core EPS growth (%) Operating margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt to capital employed (x) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)
FY13 36,810 (21,747) 15,064 0 19,839 (4,775) 15,064 (1,977) 0 8,139 21,226 (4,869) (9) 16,347 11.44 11.44 9,935 6.95 4.60
FY14 37,585 (22,493) 15,093 0 20,743 (5,650) 15,093 (1,836) 0 2,012 15,269 (3,007) (42) 12,220 8.55 8.55 12,029 8.42 3.40
FY15 43,969 (23,539) 20,430 0 26,618 (6,188) 20,430 (1,605) 0 4,511 23,335 (4,585) (21) 18,729 13.11 13.11 15,755 11.03 4.38
FY16E 49,348 (25,186) 24,162 0 30,596 (6,434) 24,162 (1,453) 0 1,745 24,454 (4,891) (27) 19,537 13.68 13.68 19,537 13.68 6.82
FY13 39,271 206 91,406 22,177 153,061 4,460 37,325 61,321 161 91,579 153,061
FY14 43,203 195 94,282 16,109 153,789 3,971 30,638 56,541 203 97,044 153,789
FY15 48,490 238 95,253 15,643 159,624 4,228 27,493 50,812 225 108,588 159,624
FY16E 55,918 234 93,364 15,829 165,345 3,840 23,673 46,768 198 118,378 165,345
FY13 16,347 4,775 5,066 (6,095) 20,094 (4,176) (4,125) (8,301) (7,607) 0 (2,571) 0 (10,178) 1,615 11,793 8.26
FY14 12,220 5,650 1,033 38 18,941 (9,559) 3,627 (5,932) (6,008) 0 (6,571) 0 (12,578) 431 13,010 9.11
FY15 18,729 6,188 186 (197) 24,906 (6,835) (9,244) (16,079) (5,734) 0 (7,057) 0 (12,790) (3,963) 8,827 6.18
FY16E 19,537 6,434 (18) 0 25,953 (6,458) 0 (6,458) (4,208) 0 (7,859) 0 (12,067) 7,428 19,495 13.65
FY13 20.8 28.9 51.7 40.9 53.9 44.4 27.0 22.9 20.8
FY14 2.1 4.6 21.1 40.2 55.2 32.5 32.0 19.7 2.1
FY15 17.0 28.3 31.0 46.5 60.5 42.6 35.8 19.6 17.0
FY16E 12.2 14.9 24.0 49.0 62.0 39.6 39.6 20.0 12.2
FY13 0.31 0.03 7.57
FY14 0.26 cash 9.66
FY15 0.23 cash 13.73
FY16E 0.19 cash 17.69
FY17E 54,519 (26,607) 27,911 0 34,346 (6,434) 27,911 (1,302) 0 1,880 28,490 (5,698) (31) 22,761 15.93 15.93 22,761 15.93 7.95
FY18E 58,992 (28,073) 30,918 0 37,306 (6,387) 30,918 (1,153) 0 1,725 31,490 (6,298) (34) 25,158 17.61 17.61 25,158 17.61 8.79
FY17E 55,956 253 100,961 15,937 173,107 3,840 19,853 43,156 167 129,785 173,108
FY18E 42,836 274 122,878 15,899 181,887 3,729 16,033 39,361 133 142,392 181,886
FY17E 22,761 6,434 81 0 29,276 (15,672) 0 (15,672) (3,820) 0 (9,746) 0 (13,566) 38 13,604 9.52
FY18E 25,158 6,387 153 0 31,698 (29,533) 0 (29,533) (3,931) 0 (11,354) 0 (15,286) (13,120) 2,165 1.52
FY17E 10.5 12.3 16.5 51.2 63.0 41.7 41.7 20.0 10.5
FY18E 8.2 8.6 10.5 52.4 63.2 42.6 42.6 20.0 8.2
FY17E 0.15 cash 22.01
FY18E 0.12 cash 26.89
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
