Building a Weather-Ready Nation:
Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Revolutionizing Water Prediction & Partnerships
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Director, National Weather Service NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services International Association of Emergency Managers 16 November 2014
Increasing High Impact Events
Yearly Averages:
650 Deaths $15B in Losses
26,000 Severe Thunderstorms
6 Atlantic Basin Hurricanes
1,300 Tornadoes
5,000 Floods
• Increasing population • Increasing vulnerability • More infrastructure at risk • Improved forecasts of extreme events 4-8 days in advance • Need to take these forecasts to the next level for effective decision support National Weather Service
2
NWS Strategic Outcome: A Weather-Ready Nation Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather
“Ready, Responsive, Resilient” REQUIRES NWS TO: • Fully Integrate our Field Structure:
• •
Better Forecasts and Warnings Ensure Consistent Products and Services
• Provide Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) • Deliver through Multiple and Reliable Dissemination Pathways • Work with Partners to gain needed response; includes embedding NWS in Emergency Operations Centers
Involves entire US Weather Enterprise WORKING TOGETHER to achieve far-reaching national preparedness for weather events National Weather Service
3
Extending Decision Support Services: Severe Weather Example
State & Local emergency managers prepare local communities
State & Local authorities focus on hardening priority assets & responding to event
FEMA Prepositions recovery assets
We understand that you require consistent and more accurate forecasts from day 1 through day 8 for your planning & preparation decisions National Weather Service
4
Taking NWS to the Next Level Information Delivery
5
HURRICANE SANDY
National Weather Service
6
Lake Oroville, CA
Folsom Lake, CA
July 20, 2011
National Weather Service
January 16, 2014
Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom
(August 2014)
TOLEDO
Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS): Partners and Missions Water Science:
to collect and disseminate reliable, impartial, and timely information needed to understand the Nation's water resources in order to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters
Water Management: to strengthen our Nation's security, energize the economy, and reduce risks from disasters
US Army Corps of Engineers
Water Prediction:
to provide weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy
IWRSS Partnership IWRSS Partnership will expand willtime expand over time over
9
IWRSS Strategy Work with partners and stakeholders to provide enhanced water information for Decision Support Services: Understand water availability, threats, and uncertainties Help water managers and decision makers understand, adapt to, and reduce risk Improve social and economic security Support the emerging Water Enterprise to stimulate the growing water economy The National Water Center provides a key central connection point among federal & external partners. 10
Establishing the National Water Center May 2015:
Initial Operating Capability
MISSION: Deliver state-of-the-science, summit-to-sea, treetop-to-bedrock hydrologic analyses, forecast information, and decision support services to address the Nation’s growing water resources challenges. Location: Tuscaloosa, AL
Co-located Partners: visiting scientists and
11
2014: Improved Forecasts & Products Hurricane WRF Model & New Storm Surge Graphics HWRF Forecast Track & Forecast Radar Reflectivity for Hurricane Arthur (18z 01 JUL ‘14)
Hurricane Arthur Potential Storm Surge Mapping ‘Best Guess, Worst Case Scenario’
Actual Track HWRF Forecast Track
National Weather Service
12
Summary •
Science-based service organization directed toward Building A Weather-Ready Nation.
We can’t do it alone!
•
We must continue to improve our partner relationships, including with Emergency Management → We now have Over 990 WRN Ambassadors
National Weather Service
13
THANK YOU!
National Weather Service
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Director, National Weather Service NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services International Association of Emergency Managers 16 November 2014
Increasing High Impact Events
Yearly Averages:
650 Deaths $15B in Losses
26,000 Severe Thunderstorms
6 Atlantic Basin Hurricanes
1,300 Tornadoes
5,000 Floods
• Increasing population • Increasing vulnerability • More infrastructure at risk • Improved forecasts of extreme events 4-8 days in advance • Need to take these forecasts to the next level for effective decision support National Weather Service
2
NWS Strategic Outcome: A Weather-Ready Nation Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather
“Ready, Responsive, Resilient” REQUIRES NWS TO: • Fully Integrate our Field Structure:
• •
Better Forecasts and Warnings Ensure Consistent Products and Services
• Provide Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) • Deliver through Multiple and Reliable Dissemination Pathways • Work with Partners to gain needed response; includes embedding NWS in Emergency Operations Centers
Involves entire US Weather Enterprise WORKING TOGETHER to achieve far-reaching national preparedness for weather events National Weather Service
3
Extending Decision Support Services: Severe Weather Example
State & Local emergency managers prepare local communities
State & Local authorities focus on hardening priority assets & responding to event
FEMA Prepositions recovery assets
We understand that you require consistent and more accurate forecasts from day 1 through day 8 for your planning & preparation decisions National Weather Service
4
Taking NWS to the Next Level Information Delivery
5
HURRICANE SANDY
National Weather Service
6
Lake Oroville, CA
Folsom Lake, CA
July 20, 2011
National Weather Service
January 16, 2014
Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom
(August 2014)
TOLEDO
Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS): Partners and Missions Water Science:
to collect and disseminate reliable, impartial, and timely information needed to understand the Nation's water resources in order to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters
Water Management: to strengthen our Nation's security, energize the economy, and reduce risks from disasters
US Army Corps of Engineers
Water Prediction:
to provide weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy
IWRSS Partnership IWRSS Partnership will expand willtime expand over time over
9
IWRSS Strategy Work with partners and stakeholders to provide enhanced water information for Decision Support Services: Understand water availability, threats, and uncertainties Help water managers and decision makers understand, adapt to, and reduce risk Improve social and economic security Support the emerging Water Enterprise to stimulate the growing water economy The National Water Center provides a key central connection point among federal & external partners. 10
Establishing the National Water Center May 2015:
Initial Operating Capability
MISSION: Deliver state-of-the-science, summit-to-sea, treetop-to-bedrock hydrologic analyses, forecast information, and decision support services to address the Nation’s growing water resources challenges. Location: Tuscaloosa, AL
Co-located Partners: visiting scientists and
11
2014: Improved Forecasts & Products Hurricane WRF Model & New Storm Surge Graphics HWRF Forecast Track & Forecast Radar Reflectivity for Hurricane Arthur (18z 01 JUL ‘14)
Hurricane Arthur Potential Storm Surge Mapping ‘Best Guess, Worst Case Scenario’
Actual Track HWRF Forecast Track
National Weather Service
12
Summary •
Science-based service organization directed toward Building A Weather-Ready Nation.
We can’t do it alone!
•
We must continue to improve our partner relationships, including with Emergency Management → We now have Over 990 WRN Ambassadors
National Weather Service
13
THANK YOU!
National Weather Service
