Buy (16E TP Bt5.50)
IRPC Buy (16E TP Bt5.50)
Company Update
Close Bt4.14
Energy & Utilities November 16, 2015
Earnings upgrade / Earnings downgrade /Overview unchanged
“Good” to “Great” Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.404
0.437
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
23.8%
‐1.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
IRPC.BK/IRPC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
20,434.42
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
85.00/2,356.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/12.14
52 week High / Low (Bt)
4.82/2.60
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
102,423.00 5.67
Estimated free float (%)
46.91
Beta
1.85
URL
www.irpc.co.th
CGR Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
Earnings enlargement; deleveraging position Despite the few months’ slip in the UHV project’s commercial run to Feb‐16, we came back from the analyst meeting (last Friday) with positive sentiment on the initiative of its “Everest” program as another enhancement, one that will enable it to reach the top quartile with target ROIC at 14% in 2020E (from 8% in 2015E); moreover, given a stronger balance sheet with its gearing to be deleveraging from 2016E onwards, we reaffirm a Buy on IRPC (with the 16E TP of Bt5.5/share, excluding the upside risk from the “Everest” program). “Everest” program – stretched benefits compared to “Delta” program The company introduced the "Everest" program with the EBIT target to be ramped up from US$100mn in 2016E to US$200mn in 2017E, and ending up at US$300mn/year. Initiative planning is currently underway between experts and the IRPC team, and it will take about three months to finalize the work program. Then, the work program will be consecutively implemented with the target functions focusing on operations at 40‐45%, commercial at 15‐20%, procurement at 10‐15%, and corporate at 20‐25%. The "Everest" program will replace the "Delta" program given its stretched benefits in comparison; meanwhile, the “Delta” program is also closer to fully realizing the benefits (with US$100mn of the benefits already accomplished in 9M15E, about 85% of the target of US$118mn in 2015E, with the long‐term benefit target set at US$161mn by 2020E). “Everest” to drive its EBITDA to Bt29bn in 2020E, with 14% ROIC IRPC expects to repeat the success of the "Delta" program with a big return from the "Everest" program (approximately 9x given the expected benefits of US$300mn with a 10% consulting fee netting off from the benefit). The program will help expand its EBITDA to Bt29bn in 2020E (from our EBITDA forecast of Bt16bn in 2015E), with projected 14% ROIC in 2020E (vs. 8% ROIC in 2015E), closing the gap between IRPC and the top quartile. Moreover, this program will be an earnings cushion, particularly with the propylene spread remaining weak to 2017E and polypropylene expansion (300kta) not kicking off until 2H17E. Cost competitiveness leads to survival Despite the concern over the propylene supply surplus particularly in 2015‐16E (mainly from “on‐purpose” projects in China), the cheaper cash cost of propylene supply from FCC splitters (fuel oil to be cracked to propylene) seems to put some producers in a better position to survive. This is the case for IRPC, which is ranked in the first quartile of low cash cost producers, especially after the commencement of its UHV project. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Core profit (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 292,593 164 826 0.04 nm 0.10 3.69 2013 102.39 30.83 1.12 2.42 1.09 55.11
2014 281,589 (8,560) (5,235) (0.26) nm 0.08 3.32 2014 nm nm 1.25 1.93 (7.31) 93.07
2015E 250,633 6,633 10,159 0.50 nm 0.16 3.71 2015E 8.33 9.17 1.12 3.92 14.14 82.26
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
2016E 312,304 8,612 8,788 0.43 (13.49) 0.22 3.95 2016E 9.63 7.44 1.05 5.19 11.22 65.27
2017E 308,572 9,239 9,367 0.46 6.59 0.23 4.19 2017E 9.03 6.70 0.99 5.54 11.26 50.38
Figure 1: Everest program’s target benefits (US$mn)
Source: Company
Figure 2: Key improvement levers of “Everest” program by functions
Source: Company
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
Figure 3: Delta program’s projected benefits (US$mn)
Source: Company
Figure 4: IRPC’s strategic roadmap to 2020
Source: Company REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Minority interests Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 292,593 (287,695) 4,897 (5,494) 4,093 4,691 (597) (1,560) 2,390 233 (7) (762) 1,424 (39) (23) 826 0.04 0.04 164 0.01 0.10
2014 281,589 (287,930) (6,341) (5,444) (6,826) 4,959 (11,785) (1,424) 2,411 (10,798) 2,398 932 2,393 (139) (21) (5,235) (0.26) (0.26) (8,560) (0.42) 0.08
2015E 250,633 (234,039) 16,594 (5,730) 16,038 5,174 10,864 (2,034) 572 9,402 (2,706) (602) 4,128 (43) (20) 10,159 0.50 0.50 6,633 0.32 0.16
2016E 312,304 (293,622) 18,682 (6,786) 18,452 6,556 11,896 (1,911) 652 10,637 (1,962) 176 0 (43) (20) 8,788 0.43 0.43 8,612 0.42 0.22
2017E 308,572 (289,474) 19,098 (6,705) 19,052 6,659 12,393 (1,426) 660 11,628 (2,326) 128 0 (43) (20) 9,367 0.46 0.46 9,239 0.45 0.23
2013 5,124 20,767 34,798 84,428 17,490 162,608 10,575 36,138 87,081 20,434 75,458 68 162,608
2014 2,009 11,192 25,344 102,120 22,134 162,798 18,641 46,498 94,895 20,434 67,834 70 162,798
2015E 1,808 12,360 25,648 109,882 19,918 169,616 23,972 40,231 93,678 20,434 75,847 90 169,616
2016E 1,627 13,262 25,742 105,529 19,360 165,521 14,324 40,032 84,630 20,434 80,780 110 165,521
2017E 7,478 13,104 25,379 101,323 18,870 166,153 27,058 23,546 80,414 20,434 85,609 130 166,153
2013 826 762 4,691 10,188 16,466 (14,335)
2014 (5,235) (932) 4,959 7,770 6,562 (22,427)
2015E 10,159 602 5,174 (1,780) 14,155 (13,212)
2016E 8,788 (176) 6,556 309 15,477 (2,298)
2017E 9,367 (128) 6,659 305 16,202 (2,557)
(14,335) (2,000) (9) (1,839) 317 (3,532) (1,400) 2,132 0.10
(22,427) 18,427 (710) (1,839) (3,129) 12,749 (3,115) (15,864) (0.78)
(13,212) (936) 268 (2,476) 2,001 (1,144) (201) 943 0.05
(2,298) (9,847) (63) (3,855) 405 (13,360) (181) 13,179 0.64
(2,557) (3,752) (63) (4,539) 559 (7,794) 5,851 13,645 0.67
2013 0.1 100.6 nm 1.7 1.4 (0.2) 0.3 0.1 3.0
2014 (3.8) (266.8) (733.6) (2.3) (2.4) (4.2) (1.9) (3.0) 22.2
2015E (11.0) (335.0) 294.0 6.6 6.4 4.3 4.1 2.6 28.8
2016E 24.6 15.1 (13.5) 6.0 5.9 3.8 2.8 2.8 18.4
2017E (1.2) 3.2 6.6 6.2 6.2 4.0 3.0 3.0 20.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, TFG, BRR. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of SCI, SR, J, TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt4.14
Energy & Utilities November 16, 2015
Earnings upgrade / Earnings downgrade /Overview unchanged
“Good” to “Great” Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.404
0.437
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
23.8%
‐1.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
IRPC.BK/IRPC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
20,434.42
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
85.00/2,356.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/12.14
52 week High / Low (Bt)
4.82/2.60
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
102,423.00 5.67
Estimated free float (%)
46.91
Beta
1.85
URL
www.irpc.co.th
CGR Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
Earnings enlargement; deleveraging position Despite the few months’ slip in the UHV project’s commercial run to Feb‐16, we came back from the analyst meeting (last Friday) with positive sentiment on the initiative of its “Everest” program as another enhancement, one that will enable it to reach the top quartile with target ROIC at 14% in 2020E (from 8% in 2015E); moreover, given a stronger balance sheet with its gearing to be deleveraging from 2016E onwards, we reaffirm a Buy on IRPC (with the 16E TP of Bt5.5/share, excluding the upside risk from the “Everest” program). “Everest” program – stretched benefits compared to “Delta” program The company introduced the "Everest" program with the EBIT target to be ramped up from US$100mn in 2016E to US$200mn in 2017E, and ending up at US$300mn/year. Initiative planning is currently underway between experts and the IRPC team, and it will take about three months to finalize the work program. Then, the work program will be consecutively implemented with the target functions focusing on operations at 40‐45%, commercial at 15‐20%, procurement at 10‐15%, and corporate at 20‐25%. The "Everest" program will replace the "Delta" program given its stretched benefits in comparison; meanwhile, the “Delta” program is also closer to fully realizing the benefits (with US$100mn of the benefits already accomplished in 9M15E, about 85% of the target of US$118mn in 2015E, with the long‐term benefit target set at US$161mn by 2020E). “Everest” to drive its EBITDA to Bt29bn in 2020E, with 14% ROIC IRPC expects to repeat the success of the "Delta" program with a big return from the "Everest" program (approximately 9x given the expected benefits of US$300mn with a 10% consulting fee netting off from the benefit). The program will help expand its EBITDA to Bt29bn in 2020E (from our EBITDA forecast of Bt16bn in 2015E), with projected 14% ROIC in 2020E (vs. 8% ROIC in 2015E), closing the gap between IRPC and the top quartile. Moreover, this program will be an earnings cushion, particularly with the propylene spread remaining weak to 2017E and polypropylene expansion (300kta) not kicking off until 2H17E. Cost competitiveness leads to survival Despite the concern over the propylene supply surplus particularly in 2015‐16E (mainly from “on‐purpose” projects in China), the cheaper cash cost of propylene supply from FCC splitters (fuel oil to be cracked to propylene) seems to put some producers in a better position to survive. This is the case for IRPC, which is ranked in the first quartile of low cash cost producers, especially after the commencement of its UHV project. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Core profit (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 292,593 164 826 0.04 nm 0.10 3.69 2013 102.39 30.83 1.12 2.42 1.09 55.11
2014 281,589 (8,560) (5,235) (0.26) nm 0.08 3.32 2014 nm nm 1.25 1.93 (7.31) 93.07
2015E 250,633 6,633 10,159 0.50 nm 0.16 3.71 2015E 8.33 9.17 1.12 3.92 14.14 82.26
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
2016E 312,304 8,612 8,788 0.43 (13.49) 0.22 3.95 2016E 9.63 7.44 1.05 5.19 11.22 65.27
2017E 308,572 9,239 9,367 0.46 6.59 0.23 4.19 2017E 9.03 6.70 0.99 5.54 11.26 50.38
Figure 1: Everest program’s target benefits (US$mn)
Source: Company
Figure 2: Key improvement levers of “Everest” program by functions
Source: Company
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
Figure 3: Delta program’s projected benefits (US$mn)
Source: Company
Figure 4: IRPC’s strategic roadmap to 2020
Source: Company REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Minority interests Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 292,593 (287,695) 4,897 (5,494) 4,093 4,691 (597) (1,560) 2,390 233 (7) (762) 1,424 (39) (23) 826 0.04 0.04 164 0.01 0.10
2014 281,589 (287,930) (6,341) (5,444) (6,826) 4,959 (11,785) (1,424) 2,411 (10,798) 2,398 932 2,393 (139) (21) (5,235) (0.26) (0.26) (8,560) (0.42) 0.08
2015E 250,633 (234,039) 16,594 (5,730) 16,038 5,174 10,864 (2,034) 572 9,402 (2,706) (602) 4,128 (43) (20) 10,159 0.50 0.50 6,633 0.32 0.16
2016E 312,304 (293,622) 18,682 (6,786) 18,452 6,556 11,896 (1,911) 652 10,637 (1,962) 176 0 (43) (20) 8,788 0.43 0.43 8,612 0.42 0.22
2017E 308,572 (289,474) 19,098 (6,705) 19,052 6,659 12,393 (1,426) 660 11,628 (2,326) 128 0 (43) (20) 9,367 0.46 0.46 9,239 0.45 0.23
2013 5,124 20,767 34,798 84,428 17,490 162,608 10,575 36,138 87,081 20,434 75,458 68 162,608
2014 2,009 11,192 25,344 102,120 22,134 162,798 18,641 46,498 94,895 20,434 67,834 70 162,798
2015E 1,808 12,360 25,648 109,882 19,918 169,616 23,972 40,231 93,678 20,434 75,847 90 169,616
2016E 1,627 13,262 25,742 105,529 19,360 165,521 14,324 40,032 84,630 20,434 80,780 110 165,521
2017E 7,478 13,104 25,379 101,323 18,870 166,153 27,058 23,546 80,414 20,434 85,609 130 166,153
2013 826 762 4,691 10,188 16,466 (14,335)
2014 (5,235) (932) 4,959 7,770 6,562 (22,427)
2015E 10,159 602 5,174 (1,780) 14,155 (13,212)
2016E 8,788 (176) 6,556 309 15,477 (2,298)
2017E 9,367 (128) 6,659 305 16,202 (2,557)
(14,335) (2,000) (9) (1,839) 317 (3,532) (1,400) 2,132 0.10
(22,427) 18,427 (710) (1,839) (3,129) 12,749 (3,115) (15,864) (0.78)
(13,212) (936) 268 (2,476) 2,001 (1,144) (201) 943 0.05
(2,298) (9,847) (63) (3,855) 405 (13,360) (181) 13,179 0.64
(2,557) (3,752) (63) (4,539) 559 (7,794) 5,851 13,645 0.67
2013 0.1 100.6 nm 1.7 1.4 (0.2) 0.3 0.1 3.0
2014 (3.8) (266.8) (733.6) (2.3) (2.4) (4.2) (1.9) (3.0) 22.2
2015E (11.0) (335.0) 294.0 6.6 6.4 4.3 4.1 2.6 28.8
2016E 24.6 15.1 (13.5) 6.0 5.9 3.8 2.8 2.8 18.4
2017E (1.2) 3.2 6.6 6.2 6.2 4.0 3.0 3.0 20.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, TFG, BRR. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of SCI, SR, J, TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
