Cement Dispatches for January 2017 - Aljazira Capital
Cement Dispatches for January 2017 February 2017 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | January 2017
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Cement Dispatches: growth of 11.4%MoM, however a 15.7% YoY decline; Dispatches Growth new disclosure from Untied cement and the new production line of Umm Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS) 6,000 AlQura adds to the total market capacity. According to the data released by Yamamah Cement Co, cement dispatches for the month of January-2017 stood at 4.85mn tons, compared to 5.75 tons in January-2016, depicting a decline of 15.7%YoY, and growth of 11.4%MoM.
50%
Change %(RHS)
30%
5,000
10%
4,000
-10%
3,000
Jan-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
-30% Overview: The MoM growth in dispatches is mainly attributed to the additional 2,000 added capacity of Untied Cement and Umm AlQura, which contributes almost 1,000 -50% 256KT of cement in January 2017. On the other hand, continued demand pressure is the main reason behind YoY% decline in cement dispatches. For FY2016, cement Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research dispatches showed a decline of 9.4% YoY, standing at 55.7mn from 61.4mn in 2015, Share in Dispatches by Regions that can be ascribed to lower government spending on new projects and lower Share in Dispatches Share in Inventory Regions construction activity. Jan-16 Jan-17 12M-2016 Jan-16 Jan-17
28.29% 29.28% 28.97% 30.59% 28.84%
“Central Region”
On MoM basis, Qassim cement showed the highest growth of 28.6%MoM followed “Western Region” 23.11% 29.75% 22.91% 17.32% 14.41% by Southern cement, which showed a growth of 23.2%MoM. On the other hand, “Southern Region” 19.38% 15.21% 18.58% 14.44% 16.84% Yanbu cement showed a decline of 15.1%MoM followed by Eastern cement with a “Eastern Region” 17.16% 16.07% 17.89% 24.91% 24.05% decline of 5.8%. On YoY basis, City and AlJouf cement companies showed growth “Northern Region” 12.06% 9.70% 11.65% 12.74% 15.86% Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research in cement dispatches, recording an increase of 22.4%YoY and 2.5%YoY respectively. Northern cement and Hail cement witnessed a fall of 56.0%YoY and 46.0%YoY Invenories Level 14% 30,000 respectively. 12% 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
Jan-17
Nov-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
0
Jan-16
5,000
Dec-15
Clinker inventories recorded a modest growth of 1.4%MoM: Clinker inventory continued to increase and reached 28.1mn ton by end of January, depicting an increase of 29.3%YoY. Hail cement showed an increase of 9.1%MoM in clinker inventory, followed by Tabuk cement which showed an increase of 3.7%MoM. On the other hand, Arabian and Northern cement companies’ clinker inventory witnessed a fall of 18.2%MoM and 12.7%MoM respectively.
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
Change %(RHS)
Market Share: City cement showed an improvement in its market share as it increased from 5.0% in January-2016 to 7.3% in January-2017. Moreover, AlJouf cement increased its market share from 2.8% to 3.4%. On the other hand, Northern Cement company market share declined to 2.2% in January-2017 as compared to 4.2% in January-2016, followed by Najran cement as it declined from 6.2% in January 2016 to 4.1% in January 2017. Key Data Dispatches Region “Central Region”
“Western Region”
“Eastern Region” “Southern Region” “Northern Region”
Companies
Dec-16
Jan-16
Jan-17
"M/M %
Yamamah Cement City Cement Qassim Cement Riyadh Cement Total Yanbu Cement Arabian Cement AlSafwa Cement Umm AlQura United Cement Total Saudi Cement Eastern Cement Total Najran Cement Southern Cement Total Northern Cement AlJouf Cement Tabuk Cement Hail Cement Total Total
374 312 304 252 1,242 746 347 188 0 0 1,281 548 241 789 190 436 626 104 142 94 73 413 4,351
551 290 425 360 1,626 630 492 206 0 0 1,328 696 290 986 354 760 1,114 241 161 130 161 693 5,747
369 355 391 304 1,419 633 375 178 115 141 1,442 552 227 779 200 537 737 106 165 112 87 470 4,847
-1.3% 13.8% 28.6% 20.6% 14.3% -15.1% 8.1% -5.3% 12.6% 0.7% -5.8% -1.3% 5.3% 23.2% 17.7% 1.9% 16.2% 19.1% 19.2% 13.8% 11.4%
Y/Y % change -33.0% 22.4% -8.0% -15.6% -12.7% 0.5% -23.8% -13.6% 8.6% -20.7% -21.7% -21.0% -43.5% -29.3% -33.8% -56.0% 2.5% -13.8% -46.0% -32.2% -15.7%
Clinker Inventory Levels % 12M-2015 12M-2016 Change 5,825 2,655 4,405 3,372 16257 7,008 5,380 1,861 14249 7,702 3,119 10821 4,460 8,490 12950 2,370 1,726 1,301 1,766 7,163 61,440
5,356 3,136 4,038 3,584 16,114 6,435 4,452 1,856 12743 7,316 2,638 9,954 2,897 7,441 10,338 1,865 1,884 1,338 1,392 6,479 55,628
-8.1% 18.1% -8.3% 6.3% -0.9% -8.2% -17.2% -0.3% -10.6% -5.0% -15.4% -8.0% -35.0% -12.4% -20.2% -21.3% 9.2% 2.8% -21.2% -9.5% -9.5%
Nov-16
Dec-15
Dec-16
4,331 1,323 1,031 1,653 8,338 3,035 422 329 0 0 3,786 4,713 2,007 6,720 3,033 1,797 4,830 836 1,062 1,045 1,498 4,441 28,115
3,316 796 906 1,726 6744 3,106 530 181 0 0 3,817 3,974 1,516 5490 2,436 747 3183 589 524 854 842 2,809 22,043
4,384 1,212 993 1,631 8,220 2,851 345 308 176 429 4,109 4,835 2,020 6,855 2,996 1,806 4,802 730 1,072 1,084 1,635 4,521 28,507
M/M % change 32.2% 52.3% 9.6% -5.5% 21.9% -8.2% -34.9% 70.2% 7.6% 21.7% 33.2% 24.9% 23.0% 141.8% 50.9% 23.9% 104.6% 26.9% 94.2% 60.9% 29.3%
Y/Y % change 1.2% -8.4% -3.7% -1.3% -1.4% -6.1% -18.2% -6.4% 8.5% 2.6% 0.6% 2.0% -1.2% 0.5% -0.6% -12.7% 0.9% 3.7% 9.1% 1.8% 1.4%
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital
1
Analyst
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
Waleed Al-jubayr
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
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Cement Dispatches for January 2017 February 2017 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | January 2017
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Company News & Events Date of Company Name Announcement
Corporate Event & Announcement
Yanbu Cement
5/2/17
The board of directors of Yanbu Cement Co. recommended a 20% cash dividend(SAR 2.0 per share) for the 2H2016. This takes the total dividend for full year 2016 to SAR 3.0 per share.
Qassim Cement
1/26/17
Qassim Cement Co.’s board of directors recommended a 10% cash dividend to be issued at SAR 1.0 per share for 4Q2016, bringing the total dividend for full year 2016 to SAR 4.75 per share.
Yamama Cement
19-01-2017
Yamama Cement Company’s board of directors recommended on Thursday a 2.5% cash dividend (SAR 0.25 per share) for the 4Q2016.
Yamama Cement
19-01-2017
Yamama Cement board of directors decided to halts its klins 1-5 with capacity of 5600tpd due to current market conditions, with no financial impact on the company.
City Cement
18-01-2017
City Cement Co.’s board of directors recommended a 2.5% cash dividend (SAR 0.25per share) for the 2H2016.This takes the dividend for the full year to SAR 1 per share.
2/1/17
Yamama Cement Co. has signed two facilities, totaling SAR 1.0bn with NCB (SAR 750mn) and SAMBA Financial Group ( SAR 250mn), which will be paid at the end of the period.
Eastern Cement
25-12-2016
Eastern Province Cement Co. said that the trial run of its cement mill is not yet complete as work is still underway to increase efficiency and reach the designed production capacity. The trial phase is expected to be completed during the first half of 2017 and there is no financial impact expected from the delay
Yamama Cement
20-12-2016
Yamama Cement Co. has signed a 900mn nine years loan with SIDF, which will be paid in12 semiannual payments.
21-11-2016
Arabian Cement Co. announced that construction works are still ongoing at its clinker grinder facility in Rabigh and the commercial operations are scheduled to start in Q42017. The financial impact of the new facility can’t be determined at this time, as it depends on market demand and supply.
Yamama Cement
Arabian Cement
Source: The Saudi Stock Exchange - Tadawul
Share in Dispatches (January 2017)
15.0%
Yanbu Cement
13%
Saudi Cement Southern Cement
Market Share in Saudi Cement Sector (%)
13.0% 11.0%
32% 11%
Yamama Cement
11%
Qassim Cement
Najran Cement Others
-6.0% -20.6%
9.1%
9.0% 7.0%
Arabian Cement
Eastern Cement
90.0%
19.1%
5.0%
-
-16.2%
70.0%
45.1%
50.0%
-9.6%
-7.2%
2.2%
0.1%
2.5%
-33.0%
5%
8% 8%
8%
0.0%
0.0%
-47.8%
10.0% -10.0%
-35.9%
3.0%
4%
30.0%
21.5%
-30.0%
1.0%
-50.0%
Yamama Saudi Eastern Qassim Yanbu -1.0% Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Arabian Southern Tabuk Riyadh Najran City Northern AlJouf AlSafwa Hail Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement
Share in dispatches- January 2016 (LHS)
Share in dispatches- January 2017 (LHS)
Um AlQura
United Cement
-70.0%
% Change in Share in Dispatches (RHS)
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital
2
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Cement Dispatches for January 2017 February 2017 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | January 2017
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Dispatches & Change
Yamama Cement
10%
3,000
4%
2,000
0%
20%
3,500
0% -10%
2,500
-30% -40%
1,000
-2% -4%
500 0
-1 6
Ja n
Saudi Co SaudiCement Cement
3,000
-10%
2,000
-20%
1,000
-2% -4% -6%
17
n-
-8%
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
-1
S
ep
6
6
l-1
ug
A
Ju
nJa
16
0
16
6
n-
Ja
-1
ec
D
17
6
6
-1
-1
ov
ct
O
N
6
6
-1
-1
S
ep
6
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6
16
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
-1
A
pr
16
ar
M
Fe
b-
16 nJa
0%
n-
-30%
0
8%
2%
Ju
100
0%
Change %(RHS)
4%
6
200
4,000
-1
300
10%
-6%
6%
-1
400
5,000
ay
500
20%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
16
600
6,000
M
700
30%
b-
Change %(RHS)
Fe
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
800
M
-1 6 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l- 1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n17
Fe b
Ja
n-
16
-50%
1,500
-1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n17
0
2%
6
100
10% 6%
-1
-20%
200
Change %(RHS)
8%
pr
300
4,000
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
A
400
30%
4,500
16
500
5,000
40%
M ar
600
50%
ar
Change %(RHS)
b-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
Fe
700
Qassim Cement 50% 40% 30%
5%
0%
600
0%
-10%
17
6
n-
Ja
-1
ec
D
N
ov
-1
6
6
6
-1
O
ct
-1
-1
ep
S
A
ug
l-1
Ju
Ju
n-
-1
-1
ay
nJa
M
16
6
17
n-
6
-15%
6
0
6
-50%
Ja
-1
ec
D
N
ov
-1
6
6
O
ct
-1
6
6 -1
-1
S
ug
ep
6
l-1
Ju
A
6
16
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
-1
6 -1
A
pr
16
ar
M
b-
Fe
Ja
n-
16
0
16
-10%
-40%
-1
50
6
-5%
200
6
400
-30%
-20%
100
pr
150
10%
A
200
15%
800
10%
250
1,000
16
300
Change %(RHS)
20%
ar
350
M
400
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,200
b-
Change %(RHS)
450
Fe
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
500
Souhtern Cement
200 100
600
-20%
400
-30%
200 0
n-
ov
N
-10%
800
16
D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n17
-1
6
O
ct
-1
6
6 -1
-1
S
ug
A
ep
6
Ju l-1
16
16
Ju n-
M
ay -
16
6 -1
A
pr -
16
ar
M
b-
Fe
Ja n-
16
0
0%
1,000
6 pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n17
300
10%
1,200
-40%
A
400
20%
1,400
6
500
Change %(RHS) 30%
1,600
-1
600
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,800
ar -1
700
2,000
M
800
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%
Fe b
Change %(RHS)
Ja
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
900
Yanbu Cement
0
-60%
3
0%
2,000
-5%
1,500 1,000
-10%
500 0
-15%
6 pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n17
-40%
Ja n16 Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n17
100
2,500
A
200
0% -20%
5%
3,000
16
300
20%
Change %(RHS) 10%
ar -1
400
40%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
3,500
M
500
60%
4,000
Fe b-
600
80%
16
Change %(RHS)
n-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
700
Ja
800
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for January 2017 February 2017 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | January 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Change
Arabian Cement
2,500
-1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
M ay
A pr
-1 6
16
-1 6
M ar
1% 0%
16
n-
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
A
ug
l-1
16
Ju
nJa
6
0
16
16
n-
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6
16
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
A
pr
16
-1
ar
M
b-
Fe
Ja
n-
16
-40%
-1
0
2%
500
n-
-30%
3%
1,000
Ju
-20%
50
4%
ay
-10%
100
5%
1,500
M
0%
150
7% 6%
6
10%
Change %(RHS)
2,000
6
20%
200
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
-1
30%
250
-60%
pr
40%
300
-40%
0
A
Change %(RHS)
-2%
100
16
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
0%
200
Ja n
Eastern Co EasternCement Cement 350
20%
300
-1
-1
6 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l- 1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16 50%
Fe b
Ja
n-
16
0
40%
400
ar
100
60%
500
M
200
100% 80%
-1 6
300
Change %(RHS)
600
b-
400
700
b-
500
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60%
Fe
Change %(RHS)
Fe
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
600
Najran Cement 400
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
Change %(RHS)
80%
350
3,500
Change %(RHS) 10%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
8%
60%
3,000
40%
2,500
20%
2,000
0%
1,500
100
-20%
1,000
50
-40%
500
0
-60%
-4%
0
-6%
2% 0%
16
n-
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
-1
6
ug
A
Ju
l-1
16
6 -1
Ju
ay
M
n-
6
6
-1
A
pr
-1
n-
Fe
Ja
16
-2%
ar
16
6
n-
Ja
-1
ec
D
N
ov
-1
6
6
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
ep
S
A
ug
-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Ju
n-
16
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
A
pr
16
-1
ar
M
b-
Fe
Ja
n-
16
150
4%
M
200
6%
b-
250
16
300
Northern Cement
ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
S
A
ug -
16
6
6
Ju l-1
6
-1
Ju n
M
ay -1
-1
A pr
ar -
M
b-
Fe
Ja n-
6
-40%
16
0
16
-30%
16
50
30%
500
20%
400
10%
300
0%
200
-10%
100
-20%
0
-30%
6 pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
-20%
40%
A
100
50%
ar -1
-10%
60%
600
M
150
Change %(RHS)
700
-1 6
0%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
800
16
200
900
n-
250
10%
Ja
20%
Change %(RHS)
Fe b
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
300
AlJouf Cement
-50%
6 ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16 S
A
ug -1
6
Ju l
-1
16
Ju n-
-1 6
M
ay
16
A
pr -
6
16
M
ar -
b1
Fe
Ja n-
16
-40%
0%
0
-50%
6 pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
0
50%
200
A
-30%
6
50
100%
400
-1
-20%
150%
600
ar
100
200%
800
M
-10%
250%
-1
0%
Change %(RHS) 300%
1,000
16
10%
150
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,200
n-
20%
1,400
Ja
40% 30%
200
4
Change %(RHS)
Fe b
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
250
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for January 2017 February 2017 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | January 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Change
Tabuk Cement
600
50%
-20%
400
0%
-40%
200
-50%
-60%
0
-1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16 16
n-
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
ug
A
Ju
l-1
16
6 -1
n-
nJa
Ju
16
16
n-
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6
Ju
n-
16
6
-1
M
A
ay
6
-1
pr
16
-1
ar
M
b-
-5% -10%
ay
0
M
-60%
6
200
Fe
-1 6
0%
-40%
16
M ay
5%
400
n-
A pr
10%
600
-20%
Ja
16
800
150
0
-1 6
15%
0%
50
25% 20%
200 100
Change %(RHS)
1,000
6
20%
250
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
-1
40%
300
1,400 1,200
pr
60%
Change %(RHS)
A
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
350
M ar
Ja n
City Co CityCement Cement 400
-100%
-1 6
16
n-
0%
Fe b
Ja
100%
-1
0
20%
6 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l- 1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
20
150%
800
16
40
1,000
-1
60
40%
ar
80
Change %(RHS) 200%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
M
100
1,200
b-
120
60%
Fe
Change %(RHS)
b-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
140
Fe
160
Hail Cement 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
6%
-10%
800
4%
-30%
400
0%
16
n-
-2%
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
-1
6
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6 -1
n-
Ju
16
nJa
ay
0
16
200
16
6
n-
Ja
-1
ec
D
N
ov
-1
6
6
6
-1
ct
O
6
-1
ep
S
A
ug
-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Ju
n-
16
6
ay
M
A
-1
6
-1
pr
16
-1
ar
M
b-
Fe
Ja
n-
16
-50%
M
0
2%
6
-40%
6
20
-1
40
600
pr
-20%
A
60
8%
1,200 1,000
0%
80
12% 10%
16
100
Change %(RHS)
1,400
-1
120
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
ar
140
1,800 1,600
M
Change %(RHS)
b-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
160
Fe
180
Riyadh Cement
1,600
-10%
1,500
100
-30%
50
-40%
0
6 ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16 O
-1
ep
S
A
ug -
16
6
Ju l
-1
6
16
Ju
n-
6 M
ay -1
-1
A
pr
6
16
M
ar -
b1
Fe
Ja n
-1
6
-50%
-2% -4%
1,450 1,400
-6%
1,350
-8%
6 pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
-20%
A
150
0%
1,550
6
0%
200
2%
10%
-1
250
4%
1,650
16
300
6%
ar
20%
Change %(RHS)
1,700
M
30%
350
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,750
-1
40%
Fe b
50%
Change %(RHS)
n-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
400
Ja
450
Safwa Cement
300
60%
40%
250
40%
20%
200
20%
150
0%
100
-20%
50
-40%
0
-60%
N
ov -1
D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
6
6
-1
ct
O
6
-1
ep
S
A ug
-1
6
Ju
l-1
16
Ju
n-
16
6 M
ay -
6
-1
A
pr
-1
ar
M
b-
Fe
nJa
16
-60%
16
0
100%
16 pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
-40%
Change %(RHS)
A
-20%
16
0%
50
5
80%
60%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
ar -
100
350
M
150
400
80%
Fe b-
200
100%
16
Change %(RHS)
n-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
Ja
250
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
RESEARCH DIVISION
Acting Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
sales
brokerage
Brokerage
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
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Cement Dispatches for June 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | June 2016
7
© All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Cement Dispatches: growth of 11.4%MoM, however a 15.7% YoY decline; Dispatches Growth new disclosure from Untied cement and the new production line of Umm Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS) 6,000 AlQura adds to the total market capacity. According to the data released by Yamamah Cement Co, cement dispatches for the month of January-2017 stood at 4.85mn tons, compared to 5.75 tons in January-2016, depicting a decline of 15.7%YoY, and growth of 11.4%MoM.
50%
Change %(RHS)
30%
5,000
10%
4,000
-10%
3,000
Jan-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
-30% Overview: The MoM growth in dispatches is mainly attributed to the additional 2,000 added capacity of Untied Cement and Umm AlQura, which contributes almost 1,000 -50% 256KT of cement in January 2017. On the other hand, continued demand pressure is the main reason behind YoY% decline in cement dispatches. For FY2016, cement Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research dispatches showed a decline of 9.4% YoY, standing at 55.7mn from 61.4mn in 2015, Share in Dispatches by Regions that can be ascribed to lower government spending on new projects and lower Share in Dispatches Share in Inventory Regions construction activity. Jan-16 Jan-17 12M-2016 Jan-16 Jan-17
28.29% 29.28% 28.97% 30.59% 28.84%
“Central Region”
On MoM basis, Qassim cement showed the highest growth of 28.6%MoM followed “Western Region” 23.11% 29.75% 22.91% 17.32% 14.41% by Southern cement, which showed a growth of 23.2%MoM. On the other hand, “Southern Region” 19.38% 15.21% 18.58% 14.44% 16.84% Yanbu cement showed a decline of 15.1%MoM followed by Eastern cement with a “Eastern Region” 17.16% 16.07% 17.89% 24.91% 24.05% decline of 5.8%. On YoY basis, City and AlJouf cement companies showed growth “Northern Region” 12.06% 9.70% 11.65% 12.74% 15.86% Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research in cement dispatches, recording an increase of 22.4%YoY and 2.5%YoY respectively. Northern cement and Hail cement witnessed a fall of 56.0%YoY and 46.0%YoY Invenories Level 14% 30,000 respectively. 12% 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
Jan-17
Nov-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
0
Jan-16
5,000
Dec-15
Clinker inventories recorded a modest growth of 1.4%MoM: Clinker inventory continued to increase and reached 28.1mn ton by end of January, depicting an increase of 29.3%YoY. Hail cement showed an increase of 9.1%MoM in clinker inventory, followed by Tabuk cement which showed an increase of 3.7%MoM. On the other hand, Arabian and Northern cement companies’ clinker inventory witnessed a fall of 18.2%MoM and 12.7%MoM respectively.
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
Change %(RHS)
Market Share: City cement showed an improvement in its market share as it increased from 5.0% in January-2016 to 7.3% in January-2017. Moreover, AlJouf cement increased its market share from 2.8% to 3.4%. On the other hand, Northern Cement company market share declined to 2.2% in January-2017 as compared to 4.2% in January-2016, followed by Najran cement as it declined from 6.2% in January 2016 to 4.1% in January 2017. Key Data Dispatches Region “Central Region”
“Western Region”
“Eastern Region” “Southern Region” “Northern Region”
Companies
Dec-16
Jan-16
Jan-17
"M/M %
Yamamah Cement City Cement Qassim Cement Riyadh Cement Total Yanbu Cement Arabian Cement AlSafwa Cement Umm AlQura United Cement Total Saudi Cement Eastern Cement Total Najran Cement Southern Cement Total Northern Cement AlJouf Cement Tabuk Cement Hail Cement Total Total
374 312 304 252 1,242 746 347 188 0 0 1,281 548 241 789 190 436 626 104 142 94 73 413 4,351
551 290 425 360 1,626 630 492 206 0 0 1,328 696 290 986 354 760 1,114 241 161 130 161 693 5,747
369 355 391 304 1,419 633 375 178 115 141 1,442 552 227 779 200 537 737 106 165 112 87 470 4,847
-1.3% 13.8% 28.6% 20.6% 14.3% -15.1% 8.1% -5.3% 12.6% 0.7% -5.8% -1.3% 5.3% 23.2% 17.7% 1.9% 16.2% 19.1% 19.2% 13.8% 11.4%
Y/Y % change -33.0% 22.4% -8.0% -15.6% -12.7% 0.5% -23.8% -13.6% 8.6% -20.7% -21.7% -21.0% -43.5% -29.3% -33.8% -56.0% 2.5% -13.8% -46.0% -32.2% -15.7%
Clinker Inventory Levels % 12M-2015 12M-2016 Change 5,825 2,655 4,405 3,372 16257 7,008 5,380 1,861 14249 7,702 3,119 10821 4,460 8,490 12950 2,370 1,726 1,301 1,766 7,163 61,440
5,356 3,136 4,038 3,584 16,114 6,435 4,452 1,856 12743 7,316 2,638 9,954 2,897 7,441 10,338 1,865 1,884 1,338 1,392 6,479 55,628
-8.1% 18.1% -8.3% 6.3% -0.9% -8.2% -17.2% -0.3% -10.6% -5.0% -15.4% -8.0% -35.0% -12.4% -20.2% -21.3% 9.2% 2.8% -21.2% -9.5% -9.5%
Nov-16
Dec-15
Dec-16
4,331 1,323 1,031 1,653 8,338 3,035 422 329 0 0 3,786 4,713 2,007 6,720 3,033 1,797 4,830 836 1,062 1,045 1,498 4,441 28,115
3,316 796 906 1,726 6744 3,106 530 181 0 0 3,817 3,974 1,516 5490 2,436 747 3183 589 524 854 842 2,809 22,043
4,384 1,212 993 1,631 8,220 2,851 345 308 176 429 4,109 4,835 2,020 6,855 2,996 1,806 4,802 730 1,072 1,084 1,635 4,521 28,507
M/M % change 32.2% 52.3% 9.6% -5.5% 21.9% -8.2% -34.9% 70.2% 7.6% 21.7% 33.2% 24.9% 23.0% 141.8% 50.9% 23.9% 104.6% 26.9% 94.2% 60.9% 29.3%
Y/Y % change 1.2% -8.4% -3.7% -1.3% -1.4% -6.1% -18.2% -6.4% 8.5% 2.6% 0.6% 2.0% -1.2% 0.5% -0.6% -12.7% 0.9% 3.7% 9.1% 1.8% 1.4%
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital
1
Analyst
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
Waleed Al-jubayr
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for January 2017 February 2017 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | January 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Company News & Events Date of Company Name Announcement
Corporate Event & Announcement
Yanbu Cement
5/2/17
The board of directors of Yanbu Cement Co. recommended a 20% cash dividend(SAR 2.0 per share) for the 2H2016. This takes the total dividend for full year 2016 to SAR 3.0 per share.
Qassim Cement
1/26/17
Qassim Cement Co.’s board of directors recommended a 10% cash dividend to be issued at SAR 1.0 per share for 4Q2016, bringing the total dividend for full year 2016 to SAR 4.75 per share.
Yamama Cement
19-01-2017
Yamama Cement Company’s board of directors recommended on Thursday a 2.5% cash dividend (SAR 0.25 per share) for the 4Q2016.
Yamama Cement
19-01-2017
Yamama Cement board of directors decided to halts its klins 1-5 with capacity of 5600tpd due to current market conditions, with no financial impact on the company.
City Cement
18-01-2017
City Cement Co.’s board of directors recommended a 2.5% cash dividend (SAR 0.25per share) for the 2H2016.This takes the dividend for the full year to SAR 1 per share.
2/1/17
Yamama Cement Co. has signed two facilities, totaling SAR 1.0bn with NCB (SAR 750mn) and SAMBA Financial Group ( SAR 250mn), which will be paid at the end of the period.
Eastern Cement
25-12-2016
Eastern Province Cement Co. said that the trial run of its cement mill is not yet complete as work is still underway to increase efficiency and reach the designed production capacity. The trial phase is expected to be completed during the first half of 2017 and there is no financial impact expected from the delay
Yamama Cement
20-12-2016
Yamama Cement Co. has signed a 900mn nine years loan with SIDF, which will be paid in12 semiannual payments.
21-11-2016
Arabian Cement Co. announced that construction works are still ongoing at its clinker grinder facility in Rabigh and the commercial operations are scheduled to start in Q42017. The financial impact of the new facility can’t be determined at this time, as it depends on market demand and supply.
Yamama Cement
Arabian Cement
Source: The Saudi Stock Exchange - Tadawul
Share in Dispatches (January 2017)
15.0%
Yanbu Cement
13%
Saudi Cement Southern Cement
Market Share in Saudi Cement Sector (%)
13.0% 11.0%
32% 11%
Yamama Cement
11%
Qassim Cement
Najran Cement Others
-6.0% -20.6%
9.1%
9.0% 7.0%
Arabian Cement
Eastern Cement
90.0%
19.1%
5.0%
-
-16.2%
70.0%
45.1%
50.0%
-9.6%
-7.2%
2.2%
0.1%
2.5%
-33.0%
5%
8% 8%
8%
0.0%
0.0%
-47.8%
10.0% -10.0%
-35.9%
3.0%
4%
30.0%
21.5%
-30.0%
1.0%
-50.0%
Yamama Saudi Eastern Qassim Yanbu -1.0% Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Arabian Southern Tabuk Riyadh Najran City Northern AlJouf AlSafwa Hail Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement
Share in dispatches- January 2016 (LHS)
Share in dispatches- January 2017 (LHS)
Um AlQura
United Cement
-70.0%
% Change in Share in Dispatches (RHS)
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital
2
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for January 2017 February 2017 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | January 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Change
Yamama Cement
10%
3,000
4%
2,000
0%
20%
3,500
0% -10%
2,500
-30% -40%
1,000
-2% -4%
500 0
-1 6
Ja n
Saudi Co SaudiCement Cement
3,000
-10%
2,000
-20%
1,000
-2% -4% -6%
17
n-
-8%
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
-1
S
ep
6
6
l-1
ug
A
Ju
nJa
16
0
16
6
n-
Ja
-1
ec
D
17
6
6
-1
-1
ov
ct
O
N
6
6
-1
-1
S
ep
6
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6
16
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
-1
A
pr
16
ar
M
Fe
b-
16 nJa
0%
n-
-30%
0
8%
2%
Ju
100
0%
Change %(RHS)
4%
6
200
4,000
-1
300
10%
-6%
6%
-1
400
5,000
ay
500
20%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
16
600
6,000
M
700
30%
b-
Change %(RHS)
Fe
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
800
M
-1 6 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l- 1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n17
Fe b
Ja
n-
16
-50%
1,500
-1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n17
0
2%
6
100
10% 6%
-1
-20%
200
Change %(RHS)
8%
pr
300
4,000
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
A
400
30%
4,500
16
500
5,000
40%
M ar
600
50%
ar
Change %(RHS)
b-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
Fe
700
Qassim Cement 50% 40% 30%
5%
0%
600
0%
-10%
17
6
n-
Ja
-1
ec
D
N
ov
-1
6
6
6
-1
O
ct
-1
-1
ep
S
A
ug
l-1
Ju
Ju
n-
-1
-1
ay
nJa
M
16
6
17
n-
6
-15%
6
0
6
-50%
Ja
-1
ec
D
N
ov
-1
6
6
O
ct
-1
6
6 -1
-1
S
ug
ep
6
l-1
Ju
A
6
16
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
-1
6 -1
A
pr
16
ar
M
b-
Fe
Ja
n-
16
0
16
-10%
-40%
-1
50
6
-5%
200
6
400
-30%
-20%
100
pr
150
10%
A
200
15%
800
10%
250
1,000
16
300
Change %(RHS)
20%
ar
350
M
400
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,200
b-
Change %(RHS)
450
Fe
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
500
Souhtern Cement
200 100
600
-20%
400
-30%
200 0
n-
ov
N
-10%
800
16
D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n17
-1
6
O
ct
-1
6
6 -1
-1
S
ug
A
ep
6
Ju l-1
16
16
Ju n-
M
ay -
16
6 -1
A
pr -
16
ar
M
b-
Fe
Ja n-
16
0
0%
1,000
6 pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n17
300
10%
1,200
-40%
A
400
20%
1,400
6
500
Change %(RHS) 30%
1,600
-1
600
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,800
ar -1
700
2,000
M
800
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%
Fe b
Change %(RHS)
Ja
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
900
Yanbu Cement
0
-60%
3
0%
2,000
-5%
1,500 1,000
-10%
500 0
-15%
6 pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n17
-40%
Ja n16 Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n17
100
2,500
A
200
0% -20%
5%
3,000
16
300
20%
Change %(RHS) 10%
ar -1
400
40%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
3,500
M
500
60%
4,000
Fe b-
600
80%
16
Change %(RHS)
n-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
700
Ja
800
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for January 2017 February 2017 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | January 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Change
Arabian Cement
2,500
-1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
M ay
A pr
-1 6
16
-1 6
M ar
1% 0%
16
n-
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
A
ug
l-1
16
Ju
nJa
6
0
16
16
n-
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6
16
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
A
pr
16
-1
ar
M
b-
Fe
Ja
n-
16
-40%
-1
0
2%
500
n-
-30%
3%
1,000
Ju
-20%
50
4%
ay
-10%
100
5%
1,500
M
0%
150
7% 6%
6
10%
Change %(RHS)
2,000
6
20%
200
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
-1
30%
250
-60%
pr
40%
300
-40%
0
A
Change %(RHS)
-2%
100
16
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
0%
200
Ja n
Eastern Co EasternCement Cement 350
20%
300
-1
-1
6 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l- 1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16 50%
Fe b
Ja
n-
16
0
40%
400
ar
100
60%
500
M
200
100% 80%
-1 6
300
Change %(RHS)
600
b-
400
700
b-
500
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60%
Fe
Change %(RHS)
Fe
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
600
Najran Cement 400
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
Change %(RHS)
80%
350
3,500
Change %(RHS) 10%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
8%
60%
3,000
40%
2,500
20%
2,000
0%
1,500
100
-20%
1,000
50
-40%
500
0
-60%
-4%
0
-6%
2% 0%
16
n-
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
-1
6
ug
A
Ju
l-1
16
6 -1
Ju
ay
M
n-
6
6
-1
A
pr
-1
n-
Fe
Ja
16
-2%
ar
16
6
n-
Ja
-1
ec
D
N
ov
-1
6
6
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
ep
S
A
ug
-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Ju
n-
16
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
A
pr
16
-1
ar
M
b-
Fe
Ja
n-
16
150
4%
M
200
6%
b-
250
16
300
Northern Cement
ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
S
A
ug -
16
6
6
Ju l-1
6
-1
Ju n
M
ay -1
-1
A pr
ar -
M
b-
Fe
Ja n-
6
-40%
16
0
16
-30%
16
50
30%
500
20%
400
10%
300
0%
200
-10%
100
-20%
0
-30%
6 pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
-20%
40%
A
100
50%
ar -1
-10%
60%
600
M
150
Change %(RHS)
700
-1 6
0%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
800
16
200
900
n-
250
10%
Ja
20%
Change %(RHS)
Fe b
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
300
AlJouf Cement
-50%
6 ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16 S
A
ug -1
6
Ju l
-1
16
Ju n-
-1 6
M
ay
16
A
pr -
6
16
M
ar -
b1
Fe
Ja n-
16
-40%
0%
0
-50%
6 pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
0
50%
200
A
-30%
6
50
100%
400
-1
-20%
150%
600
ar
100
200%
800
M
-10%
250%
-1
0%
Change %(RHS) 300%
1,000
16
10%
150
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,200
n-
20%
1,400
Ja
40% 30%
200
4
Change %(RHS)
Fe b
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
250
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for January 2017 February 2017 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | January 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Change
Tabuk Cement
600
50%
-20%
400
0%
-40%
200
-50%
-60%
0
-1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16 16
n-
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
ug
A
Ju
l-1
16
6 -1
n-
nJa
Ju
16
16
n-
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6
Ju
n-
16
6
-1
M
A
ay
6
-1
pr
16
-1
ar
M
b-
-5% -10%
ay
0
M
-60%
6
200
Fe
-1 6
0%
-40%
16
M ay
5%
400
n-
A pr
10%
600
-20%
Ja
16
800
150
0
-1 6
15%
0%
50
25% 20%
200 100
Change %(RHS)
1,000
6
20%
250
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
-1
40%
300
1,400 1,200
pr
60%
Change %(RHS)
A
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
350
M ar
Ja n
City Co CityCement Cement 400
-100%
-1 6
16
n-
0%
Fe b
Ja
100%
-1
0
20%
6 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l- 1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
20
150%
800
16
40
1,000
-1
60
40%
ar
80
Change %(RHS) 200%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
M
100
1,200
b-
120
60%
Fe
Change %(RHS)
b-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
140
Fe
160
Hail Cement 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
6%
-10%
800
4%
-30%
400
0%
16
n-
-2%
Ja
D
ec
-1
6
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
-1
6
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6 -1
n-
Ju
16
nJa
ay
0
16
200
16
6
n-
Ja
-1
ec
D
N
ov
-1
6
6
6
-1
ct
O
6
-1
ep
S
A
ug
-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Ju
n-
16
6
ay
M
A
-1
6
-1
pr
16
-1
ar
M
b-
Fe
Ja
n-
16
-50%
M
0
2%
6
-40%
6
20
-1
40
600
pr
-20%
A
60
8%
1,200 1,000
0%
80
12% 10%
16
100
Change %(RHS)
1,400
-1
120
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
ar
140
1,800 1,600
M
Change %(RHS)
b-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
160
Fe
180
Riyadh Cement
1,600
-10%
1,500
100
-30%
50
-40%
0
6 ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16 O
-1
ep
S
A
ug -
16
6
Ju l
-1
6
16
Ju
n-
6 M
ay -1
-1
A
pr
6
16
M
ar -
b1
Fe
Ja n
-1
6
-50%
-2% -4%
1,450 1,400
-6%
1,350
-8%
6 pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
-20%
A
150
0%
1,550
6
0%
200
2%
10%
-1
250
4%
1,650
16
300
6%
ar
20%
Change %(RHS)
1,700
M
30%
350
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,750
-1
40%
Fe b
50%
Change %(RHS)
n-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
400
Ja
450
Safwa Cement
300
60%
40%
250
40%
20%
200
20%
150
0%
100
-20%
50
-40%
0
-60%
N
ov -1
D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
6
6
-1
ct
O
6
-1
ep
S
A ug
-1
6
Ju
l-1
16
Ju
n-
16
6 M
ay -
6
-1
A
pr
-1
ar
M
b-
Fe
nJa
16
-60%
16
0
100%
16 pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 D 6 ec -1 6 Ja n16
-40%
Change %(RHS)
A
-20%
16
0%
50
5
80%
60%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
ar -
100
350
M
150
400
80%
Fe b-
200
100%
16
Change %(RHS)
n-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
Ja
250
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
RESEARCH DIVISION
Acting Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
sales
brokerage
Brokerage
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
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Cement Dispatches for June 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | June 2016
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