Central Plaza Hotel Buy (16E TP Bt46.75)
Central Plaza Hotel Buy (16E TP Bt46.75)
Company Update
Close Bt42.75
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/ Overview unchanged
Tourism & Leisure July 28, 2016
Both hotels and restaurants show good recovery Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS Bt)
1.428
1.613
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
3.6%
‐3.3%
Reuters / Bloomberg
CENT.BK/CENTEL TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,350.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
58.00/1,649.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
40.00/15.71
52 week High / Low (Bt)
48.25/31.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
2,835.00 2.48
Estimated free float (%)
51.64
Beta
0.89
URL
www.centarahotelsresorts.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no. 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6289
“BUY” rating maintained We project CENTEL’s 2Q16E net profit at Bt378mn (+54YoY and ‐50%QoQ). Both the hotel and restaurant businesses should have recovered well in line with the growth in tourism as well as improving domestic consumption. Furthermore, there has been good progress on a partnership deal in Dubai, which is expected to be finalized by this year. We maintain our full‐year projection at Bt1,999mn. The current share price is trading at 2016E PER of 29X, implying 9% upside. Our BUY rating is maintained. Good RevPAR in all segments The overall RevPAR has grown by 3.8%YoY (i.e., +5.7% for hotels in Bangkok +8.2% in the Maldives, +0.7% in the provinces). The average occupancy rate of hotels in Bangkok remained rather flat but the average daily room rate was raised by 6.8%. Meanwhile, hotels in the provinces saw an average occupancy rate of +3.7% and room rate growth of ‐4%. Although Russian tourists came back, they tended to spend more carefully; therefore, there was more bargaining on room rates. Meanwhile, the two hotels in the Maldives reported an average occupancy rate of +4.7% and room rate growth in baht terms of +1.9% due to the appreciation of the USD. Finally, we expect CENTEL’s hotel business to have generated revenue of Bt1,921mn (+2.7%YoY and ‐ 29%QoQ). SSSG of restaurant business improved 2.7% SSSG in 2Q16 rose by 2.7% vs. ‐1% in 2Q15 and ‐0.1% in 1Q16. The key SSSG contributors included KFC (+6.4%), Auntie Anne (+3.6%) and Pepper Lunch (+8.7%). On the contrary, the SSSG at some restaurants declined, e.g., Mister Donut (‐6.2%) and Ootoya (‐2.6%). The SSSG from the provinces has beaten that from Bangkok for three consecutive quarters, suggesting a positive signal for domestic consumption. The outlet network size in 2Q16 was 801 outlets, up 27 outlets from last year and one outlet from last quarter. We maintain our SSSG assumption at +0.7% even though the 6M16 SSSG of 1.4% may imply some upside risk to our estimate. In addition, we leave our assumption for new outlet launches unchanged at 18 outlets for 2016E (to 810 outlets in total). Finally, we project the revenue from the restaurant business at Bt2,840mn (+8%YoY and +14%QoQ). Partnership deal in Dubai to be finalized this year; new project in Maldives becoming uncertain again The management expects the partnership deal in Dubai to be finalized this year. The deal is for a four‐star hotel with 550 rooms. The firm anticipates a capex of Bt6bn and it will hold 40% in the potential hotel. Meanwhile, the third and fourth hotels in the Maldives will be changed again, which will cause further delays from the original schedule. The delay in these projects will post downside risk to our TP estimate. Expect growth of 54% YoY in 2Q16 with 3Q16 to grow further We project a rather flat gross profit margin and EBITDA at 38.7% and 21%, respectively. We also anticipate a core profit of Bt378mn, up 54%YoY, thanks to continued growth in the tourism sector and recovery in the restaurant business. However, earnings may have dropped 50%QoQ in 2Q16 on seasonality. We expect to see another good quarter In 3Q16 as the performance of both hotels and restaurants seems to have improved in Jul‐16. We leave our current earnings projection and target price estimate unchanged and reaffirm our “BUY” rating.
Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) Core EPS (Bt) Core E S growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 17,096 1,322 0.98 ‐17.2% 0.40 7.71 2013 43.66 16.73 5.54 0.9% 13.6% 95%
2014 17,851 1,188 0.88 ‐10.1% 0.40 6.00 2014 48.56 15.59 7.13 0.9% 12.8% 109%
2015 18,823 1,676 1.24 41.0% 0.50 6.86 2015 34.44 13.73 6.23 1.2% 19.3% 82%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2016E 19,725 1,999 1.48 19.3% 0.59 7.84 2016E 28.87 13.08 5.45 1.4% 20.1% 59%
2017E 20,229 2,110 1.56 5.5% 0.63 8.81 2017E 27.36 12.74 4.85 1.5% 18.8% 42%
Figure 1: CENTEL’s 2Q16 earning preview Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%)
2Q15 4,491 1,741 909 (97) 58 (129) 8 246 246 0.18 38.8 20.2 5.5
1Q16 5,192 2,353 1,421 (82) 139 (173) 14 758 758 0.56 45.3 27.4 14.6
2Q16E 4,761 1,844 1,002 (80) 70 (91) 10 378 378 0.28 38.7 21.0 7.9
%YoY 6.0 5.9 10.2 (17.9) 21.7 (29.9) 18.3 53.5 53.5 53.5
%QoQ (8.3) (21.6) (29.5) (2.6) (49.5) (47.5) (29.5) (50.1) (50.1) (50.1)
6M16E 9,953 4,196 2,423 (162) 209 (264) 24 1,136 1,136 0.84 42.2 24.3 11.4
%YoY 4.4 4.5 3.3 (17.6) 9.1 8.0 (13.9) 5.1 5.1 5.1
%YoY 4.8 6.4 5.1 (16.2) 3.8 22.2 n.m. 19.3 19.3 19.3
2016E 19,725 8,253 4,490 (318) 486 (527) (5) 1,999 1,999 1.48 41.8 22.8 10.1
YTD 50.5 50.8 54.0 51.0 42.9 50.1 n.m. 56.8 56.8 56.8
Sources: CENTEL, KT Zmico Research
Figure 2: Hotel business Occupancy rate Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Number of rooms
All 2Q15 76.0% 4,213 3,200 3,812
BKK 2Q16 78.4% 4,236 3,323 3,812
2Q15 79.3% 3,168 2,512 1,077
Upcountry 2Q15 2Q16 74.4% 78.1% 3,424 3,285 2,547 2,566 2,483 2,483
2Q16 78.6% 3,383 2,659 1,077
Maldives 2Q15 2Q16 76.8% 81.5% 16,401 16,718 12,596 13,625 252 252
Sources: CENTEL, KT Zmico Research
Figure 3: Food business
SSSG KFC Mister Donut Auntie Anne Ootoya All Outlets KFC Mister Donut Auntie Anne Ootoya All
1Q14 ‐6.6% 2.2% ‐11.8% 5.7% ‐2.1% 316 196 118 40 752
Sources: CENTEL, KT Zmico Research
2Q14 ‐4.2% 3.6% ‐13.7% 7.6% 0.3% 321 199 120 44 767
3Q14 3.3% 9.7% ‐12.1% 5.7% 4.9% 322 199 124 45 773
4Q14 ‐9.2% 5.9% ‐4.8% 2.3% 1.6% 324 203 125 47 781
1Q15 ‐4.7% 2.9% ‐9.6% ‐2.3% 0.6% 323 202 126 46 777
2Q15 ‐6.5% 0.5% ‐1.0% ‐4.9% ‐1.0% 320 202 126 45 774
3Q15 ‐9.3% ‐1.6% 6.2% ‐13.7% ‐3.1% 320 202 126 45 774
4Q15 4.9% 1.0% ‐0.2% ‐14.6% 0.2% 321 203 125 47 785
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
1Q16 0.8% ‐0.1% 6.1% ‐11.1% ‐0.1% 319 207 129 47 800
2Q16 6.4% ‐6.2% 3.6% ‐2.6% 2.7% 319 208 132 45 801
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt42.75
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/ Overview unchanged
Tourism & Leisure July 28, 2016
Both hotels and restaurants show good recovery Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS Bt)
1.428
1.613
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
3.6%
‐3.3%
Reuters / Bloomberg
CENT.BK/CENTEL TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,350.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
58.00/1,649.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
40.00/15.71
52 week High / Low (Bt)
48.25/31.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
2,835.00 2.48
Estimated free float (%)
51.64
Beta
0.89
URL
www.centarahotelsresorts.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no. 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6289
“BUY” rating maintained We project CENTEL’s 2Q16E net profit at Bt378mn (+54YoY and ‐50%QoQ). Both the hotel and restaurant businesses should have recovered well in line with the growth in tourism as well as improving domestic consumption. Furthermore, there has been good progress on a partnership deal in Dubai, which is expected to be finalized by this year. We maintain our full‐year projection at Bt1,999mn. The current share price is trading at 2016E PER of 29X, implying 9% upside. Our BUY rating is maintained. Good RevPAR in all segments The overall RevPAR has grown by 3.8%YoY (i.e., +5.7% for hotels in Bangkok +8.2% in the Maldives, +0.7% in the provinces). The average occupancy rate of hotels in Bangkok remained rather flat but the average daily room rate was raised by 6.8%. Meanwhile, hotels in the provinces saw an average occupancy rate of +3.7% and room rate growth of ‐4%. Although Russian tourists came back, they tended to spend more carefully; therefore, there was more bargaining on room rates. Meanwhile, the two hotels in the Maldives reported an average occupancy rate of +4.7% and room rate growth in baht terms of +1.9% due to the appreciation of the USD. Finally, we expect CENTEL’s hotel business to have generated revenue of Bt1,921mn (+2.7%YoY and ‐ 29%QoQ). SSSG of restaurant business improved 2.7% SSSG in 2Q16 rose by 2.7% vs. ‐1% in 2Q15 and ‐0.1% in 1Q16. The key SSSG contributors included KFC (+6.4%), Auntie Anne (+3.6%) and Pepper Lunch (+8.7%). On the contrary, the SSSG at some restaurants declined, e.g., Mister Donut (‐6.2%) and Ootoya (‐2.6%). The SSSG from the provinces has beaten that from Bangkok for three consecutive quarters, suggesting a positive signal for domestic consumption. The outlet network size in 2Q16 was 801 outlets, up 27 outlets from last year and one outlet from last quarter. We maintain our SSSG assumption at +0.7% even though the 6M16 SSSG of 1.4% may imply some upside risk to our estimate. In addition, we leave our assumption for new outlet launches unchanged at 18 outlets for 2016E (to 810 outlets in total). Finally, we project the revenue from the restaurant business at Bt2,840mn (+8%YoY and +14%QoQ). Partnership deal in Dubai to be finalized this year; new project in Maldives becoming uncertain again The management expects the partnership deal in Dubai to be finalized this year. The deal is for a four‐star hotel with 550 rooms. The firm anticipates a capex of Bt6bn and it will hold 40% in the potential hotel. Meanwhile, the third and fourth hotels in the Maldives will be changed again, which will cause further delays from the original schedule. The delay in these projects will post downside risk to our TP estimate. Expect growth of 54% YoY in 2Q16 with 3Q16 to grow further We project a rather flat gross profit margin and EBITDA at 38.7% and 21%, respectively. We also anticipate a core profit of Bt378mn, up 54%YoY, thanks to continued growth in the tourism sector and recovery in the restaurant business. However, earnings may have dropped 50%QoQ in 2Q16 on seasonality. We expect to see another good quarter In 3Q16 as the performance of both hotels and restaurants seems to have improved in Jul‐16. We leave our current earnings projection and target price estimate unchanged and reaffirm our “BUY” rating.
Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) Core EPS (Bt) Core E S growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 17,096 1,322 0.98 ‐17.2% 0.40 7.71 2013 43.66 16.73 5.54 0.9% 13.6% 95%
2014 17,851 1,188 0.88 ‐10.1% 0.40 6.00 2014 48.56 15.59 7.13 0.9% 12.8% 109%
2015 18,823 1,676 1.24 41.0% 0.50 6.86 2015 34.44 13.73 6.23 1.2% 19.3% 82%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2016E 19,725 1,999 1.48 19.3% 0.59 7.84 2016E 28.87 13.08 5.45 1.4% 20.1% 59%
2017E 20,229 2,110 1.56 5.5% 0.63 8.81 2017E 27.36 12.74 4.85 1.5% 18.8% 42%
Figure 1: CENTEL’s 2Q16 earning preview Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%)
2Q15 4,491 1,741 909 (97) 58 (129) 8 246 246 0.18 38.8 20.2 5.5
1Q16 5,192 2,353 1,421 (82) 139 (173) 14 758 758 0.56 45.3 27.4 14.6
2Q16E 4,761 1,844 1,002 (80) 70 (91) 10 378 378 0.28 38.7 21.0 7.9
%YoY 6.0 5.9 10.2 (17.9) 21.7 (29.9) 18.3 53.5 53.5 53.5
%QoQ (8.3) (21.6) (29.5) (2.6) (49.5) (47.5) (29.5) (50.1) (50.1) (50.1)
6M16E 9,953 4,196 2,423 (162) 209 (264) 24 1,136 1,136 0.84 42.2 24.3 11.4
%YoY 4.4 4.5 3.3 (17.6) 9.1 8.0 (13.9) 5.1 5.1 5.1
%YoY 4.8 6.4 5.1 (16.2) 3.8 22.2 n.m. 19.3 19.3 19.3
2016E 19,725 8,253 4,490 (318) 486 (527) (5) 1,999 1,999 1.48 41.8 22.8 10.1
YTD 50.5 50.8 54.0 51.0 42.9 50.1 n.m. 56.8 56.8 56.8
Sources: CENTEL, KT Zmico Research
Figure 2: Hotel business Occupancy rate Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Number of rooms
All 2Q15 76.0% 4,213 3,200 3,812
BKK 2Q16 78.4% 4,236 3,323 3,812
2Q15 79.3% 3,168 2,512 1,077
Upcountry 2Q15 2Q16 74.4% 78.1% 3,424 3,285 2,547 2,566 2,483 2,483
2Q16 78.6% 3,383 2,659 1,077
Maldives 2Q15 2Q16 76.8% 81.5% 16,401 16,718 12,596 13,625 252 252
Sources: CENTEL, KT Zmico Research
Figure 3: Food business
SSSG KFC Mister Donut Auntie Anne Ootoya All Outlets KFC Mister Donut Auntie Anne Ootoya All
1Q14 ‐6.6% 2.2% ‐11.8% 5.7% ‐2.1% 316 196 118 40 752
Sources: CENTEL, KT Zmico Research
2Q14 ‐4.2% 3.6% ‐13.7% 7.6% 0.3% 321 199 120 44 767
3Q14 3.3% 9.7% ‐12.1% 5.7% 4.9% 322 199 124 45 773
4Q14 ‐9.2% 5.9% ‐4.8% 2.3% 1.6% 324 203 125 47 781
1Q15 ‐4.7% 2.9% ‐9.6% ‐2.3% 0.6% 323 202 126 46 777
2Q15 ‐6.5% 0.5% ‐1.0% ‐4.9% ‐1.0% 320 202 126 45 774
3Q15 ‐9.3% ‐1.6% 6.2% ‐13.7% ‐3.1% 320 202 126 45 774
4Q15 4.9% 1.0% ‐0.2% ‐14.6% 0.2% 321 203 125 47 785
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
1Q16 0.8% ‐0.1% 6.1% ‐11.1% ‐0.1% 319 207 129 47 800
2Q16 6.4% ‐6.2% 3.6% ‐2.6% 2.7% 319 208 132 45 801
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
