To
CK Power Earnings Review
Underperform (16E TP Bt2.90) Close Bt3.04
Energy & Utilities August 11, 2016
Beat forecast / Below forecast / In line
2Q16 earnings still weak Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.066
0.072
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐9.1%
‐2.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
CKP.BK/CKP TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
7,370.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
22.00/645.00 49.00/1.78
52 week High / Low (Bt)
3.26/1.87
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
21,854.00
NVDR (%)
0.85
Estimated free float (%)
24.9
Beta
1.01
URL
www.ckpower.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
n.a.
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
Risks remain; demanding valuation but less appealing dividend yield With earnings risks remaining led by Nam Ngum 2’s performance (with water inflow as the major factor/no Energy Account to smooth out earnings), its gearing on the uptrend to facilitate its capacity expansion to 810MW in 2019E, and the mismatch between its capex cycle (2016‐18E) and earnings cycle (contribution likely to kick off in 2018‐20E), we see CKP’s valuation as more demanding but with a less appealing dividend yield compared with domestic peers. We reaffirm an Underperform rating. Reported weak NP of Bt62mn in 2Q16 CKP delivered weak NP of Bt62mn in 2Q16 (‐53% YoY, +31% YoY) and core profit of Bt65mn (‐33% YoY, ‐37% QoQ), with lower volume of electricity and steam, as well as a higher loss contribution from affiliates led by Xayaburi amounting to Bt13.6mn in the quarter. Deteriorating electricity and steam sales in 2Q16 Its electricity and steam sales marked a decline of 7% YoY but were flat QoQ at Bt1,527mn in 2Q16 given 1) lower revenue of electricity sales and steam sales at BIC1 to Bt547mn in 2Q16 (‐16% YoY, ‐7% QoQ), mainly due to the impact of declining natural gas prices on energy payments and a decrease of 10GWh in electricity output sold to EGAT as a result of its maintenance outage during April to May, as well as the lower volume of steam to 23.4 tons (‐2% YoY, ‐3% QoQ); 2) Nam Ngum 2’s sustained low electricity sales of Bt929mn in 2Q16 given the decrease in its electricity sales at Nam Ngum 2, particularly YoY, to 507.5 GWh in the quarter (‐3% YoY) due to more conservative water management on power declaration in case rainfall were to be delayed again this year; and 3) the drop in BKC’s electricity sold to 3.28GWh (‐10% YoY, ‐8% QoQ) due to early commencement of the rainy season. 2016 earnings forecasts remain at risk Given that 1H16 core profit and NP accounted for 36% and 23% of our full‐year estimates, respectively, our 2016E earnings estimates remain at risk with the shortfall of power generation at Nam Ngum 2 (against our assumed power generation target of 2,218GWh PE and 92GWh SE as there is no balance left in the Energy Account to smooth out its earnings) as the possible downside risk on core profit and the fine‐tuning of forex loss as the downside risk on NP. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 6,999 472 0.09 94.96 0.02 2.19 2014 35.44 9.41 1.39 0.7% 4.0% 165.9%
2015 6,757 412 0.06 (34.85) 0.02 2.41 2015 54.40 11.05 1.26 0.7% 2.8% 101.7%
2016E 7,128 470 0.06 14.06 0.03 2.45 2016E 47.69 10.84 1.24 0.8% 2.6% 101.3%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2017E 8,176 487 0.07 3.68 0.03 2.49 2017E 46.00 10.51 1.22 0.9% 2.7% 102.1%
2018E 10,006 540 0.07 10.94 0.00 0.00 2018E 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0% 2.9% 102.4%
Figure 1: CKP’s 2Q16 earnings review Profit and Loss Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
2Q15 1,661 694 939 (278) 16 ‐ 35 8 (123) 131 96 0.02 41.8 56.5 7.9 2.4 1.7 1.3 2.4 3.5
1Q16 1,549 621 857 (266) 10 (0) (55) (3) (35) 47 103 0.01 40.1 55.3 3.1 2.0 1.5 1.2 2.4 1.1
2Q16 1,543 620 860 (257) 12 (7) (3) (5) (75) 62 65 0.01 40.2 55.7 4.0 3.3 1.5 1.5 2.4 1.4
% YoY (7.1) (10.7) (8.4) (7.6) (25.5) nm nm nm (39.0) (52.7) (32.5) (50.0)
% QoQ (0.4) (0.3) 0.2 (3.3) 21.5 6,243 (95.1) 83.1 116.6 30.7 (37.0) 0.0
1H15 3,313 1,333 1,823 (567) 24 0 21 17 (175) 215 195 0.04 40.2 55.0 6.5 2.4 1.6 1.3 2.4 2.4
1H16 3,092 1,241 1,717 (522) 21 (7) (58) (8) (109) 109 167 0.01 40.1 55.5 3.5 3.3 1.5 1.5 2.4 1.2
% YoY (6.7) (6.9) (5.8) (7.8) (10.7) nm nm nm nm (49.1) (13.9) (75.0)
2015 6,757 2,660 3,660 (1,110 52 (0) 42 9 (374) 412 370 0.06 39.4 54.2 6.1 2.2 1.6 1.2 2.4 2.8
2016 7,128 2,876 3,752 (1,072 3 (25) ‐ 23 (382) 470 470 0.06 40.3 52.6 6.6 2.1 1.8 1.3 2.4 2.6
Source: KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
% YoY 5.5 8.1 2.5 (3.4) (93.8) 8,369 (100.0) 169.6 2.2 14.1 27.0 14.1
% YTD 43.4 43.2 45.8 48.7 669.2 26.7 nm (32.6) 28.6 23.3 35.6 15.7
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, CI. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.