To
CK Power
Underperform (17E TP Bt3.50)
Earnings Review
Close Bt3.34
Energy & Utilities August 11, 2017
Beat forecast / Below forecast / In line
Another poor quarter in 2Q17 Results date: August 10, 2017 Price Performance (%)
Earnings profile remains at risk; demanding valuation Given the company’s volatile earnings profile impacted by the major project, Nam Ngum 2, whose power generation remains at risk due to water inflow, and its demanding valuation on all fronts (PER, PBV, and PBV/ROE), we maintain an Underperform rating on CKP. Among small power operators, we still prefer BCPG on its promising growth and cheap valuation. Another poor quarter with slim profit of Bt11mn in 2Q17 CKP delivered a slim profit of Bt11mn in 2Q17, a sharp drop of 83% YoY but reversing from a net loss in 1Q17, with less forex impact in the quarter (vs. a Bt67mn forex loss in 1Q17). Meanwhile, its core profit stayed low at Bt13mn in 2Q17 (‐79% YoY but reversing from a normalized loss in 1Q17), with the continuing low power generation at Nam Ngum 2 and the higher finance cost as the main weaknesses in the quarter. Nam Ngum 2’s lower volume behind poor earnings in 2Q17
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.051
0.077
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐41.2%
‐35.1%
Reuters / Bloomberg
CKP.BK/CKP TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
7,370.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/740.00 49.00/2.25
52 week High / Low (Bt)
3.84/2.80
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
33,789.00
NVDR (%)
0.38
Estimated free float (%)
26.45
Beta
1.46
URL
www.ckpower.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
n.a.
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
The company reported weak electricity sales at Bt1,314mn in 2Q17 (‐13% YoY, flat QoQ), with decreasing electricity sales at its major project, Nam Ngum 2, weighing down the increasing electricity sales volume and steam at BIC. Nam Ngum 2’s power generation remained low at 380.6GWh in 2Q17 (‐25% YoY, ‐8% QoQ) in line with the low season of water inflow, with the adoption of a conservative water management scheme to ensure that the remaining water in the reservoir will be sufficient to produce electricity as planned for the entire year. At the same time, BIC delivered stronger electricity sales volume to 201.5GWh (+8% YoY, +11% QoQ) and steam to 26,773 tons (+14% YoY, +6% QoQ) in the quarter. 2017E estimate currently maintained Given the company’s weak 1H17 earnings to be followed by earnings acceleration in 2H17E, particularly in 3Q17E on the seasonal peak of Nam Ngum 2 power generation, we currently maintain our 2017E NP at Bt250mn based on our conservative assumption of 1,850GWh Primary Energy for Nam Ngum 2 (with its 1H17 power generation summing up to 793.8GWh, accounting for 43% of our full‐year forecast). Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2015 6,757 412 0.06 (34.85) 0.02 2.41 2015 59.77 11.66 1.39 0.7% 2.8% 101.7%
2016 6,319 55 0.01 (86.63) 0.06 2.41 2016 447.11 12.71 1.39 1.8% 0.3% 120.3%
2017E 7,388 250 0.03 354.04 0.03 2.37 2017E 98.48 12.72 1.41 0.9% 1.4% 107.2%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2018E 9,412 379 0.05 51.72 0.04 2.39 2018E 64.91 10.67 1.40 1.3% 2.2% 91.1%
2019E 10,900 826 0.11 117.73 0.10 2.46 2019E 29.81 8.14 1.36 2.9% 4.6% 70.7%
Figure 1: CKP’s 2Q17 earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec
2Q16
1Q17
2Q17
% YoY
% QoQ
1H16
1H17
% YoY
2016
2017E
% YoY
Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
1,543 620 860 (257) 12 (7) (3) ‐ (5) (75) 62 63 0.008 40.2 55.7 4.0 3.3 1.5 1.5 2.4 1.4
1,355 526 752 (312) 4 (1) (67) ‐ (0) 40 (44) (15) (0.01 38.9 55.5 (3.2) 3.8 0.9 1.6 2.4 (1.0)
1,359 480 739 (311) 18 (1) (7) ‐ 3 34 11 13 0.001 35.3 54.4 0.8 2.3 0.9 1.6 2.4 0.2
(11.9) (22.6) (14.0) 21.1 51.2 (89.6) 145.4 nm nm nm (82.8) (78.7) (87.5)
0.3 (8.9) (1.8) (0.4) 305.8 (0.3) (90.1) nm nm (15.0) nm nm nm
3,092 1,241 1,717 (522) 21 (7) (58) 0 (8) (109) 109 134 0.015 40.1 55.5 3.5 3.3 1.5 1.5 2.4 1.2
2,713 1,006 1,491 (623) 22 (1) (74) 0 3 74 (33) (2) (0.004 37.1 55.0 (1.2) 2.3 0.9 1.6 2.4 (0.4)
(12.3) (18.9) (13.2) 19.3 3.4 (79.5) 27.3 nm nm nm nm nm nm
6,319 2,669 3,615 (1,141 40 (14) (45) (378) (25) (139) 55 228 0.01 42.2 57.2 0.9 5.2 1.5 1.6 2.4 0.3
7,388 2,613 3,409 (1,193) 30 (24) ‐ ‐ 15 (236) 250 250 0.03 35.4 46.1 3.4 2.7 1.4 1.5 2.4 1.4
16.9 (2.1) (5.7) 4.6 (25.8) 78.2 (100.0) (100.0) (158.9) 70.0 354.0 9.8 354.0
Source: KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Nam Ngum 2’s water inflow and reservoir level
Source: The Company
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
YTD (% 17E) 36.7 38.5 43.7 52.2 73.6 5.6 nm nm 20.0 (31.5) nm nm nm
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TTL, NMG, SAWAD.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068