Colombia
Jaime Ros National Autonomous University of Mexico
1.
The adverse developmental effects of the Dutch disease: the theory
2.
The recent economic performance of Latin America and the Dutch disease
3.
What can economic policy do?
Real appreciation and indirect deindustrialization
Capital mobility and direct deindustrialization
The staple thesis and the favorable developmental effects of resource booms
Terms of trade, exports and GDP growth in several Latin American countries Index 2000=100 Annual growth rates, 2000-2008 Country Terms of Trade 2008 Exports GDP Volume Value Peru 136.7 8.4 20.7 5.9 Colombia 138.1 5.7 14.4 4.3 Chile 164.7 5.5 16.8 4.2 Argentina 133.2 5.8 13.1 4.2 Brazil 110.4 8.4 17.3 3.6 Mexico 105.8 3.0 7.2 2.4
South American exports to China as percentage of each country’s total exports, 2000-2008
Source: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database and World Bank, World Development Indicators
Real exchange rates in several South American countries. 275.0
250.0
225.0
200.0
175.0 Argentina
150.0
125.0 Uruguay 100.0 Chile Perœ Colombia
75.0
Brasil 50.0
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
25.0
Source: Frenkel and Rapetti (2011). Bilateral rates vis a vis the United States (100 = 2000). Argentina
Brasil
Chile
Colombia
Perœ
Uruguay
Real exchange rates in South American countries. Minimum level of the 1990s, average of 2002-2008 and 2010 225 200 175 150 125 100
1995
1997 1997
75
1995
1995
1996
50 25 0
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
M ’n m o
Colombia
P r o m e d io
2 0 0 2 - 2 0 0 8
2 0 1 0
Peru
Uruguay
i
Source: Frenkel and Rapetti (2011). Bilateral rates vis a vis the United States (100 = 2000).
Increase in unit labor costs in US dollars and its determinants in several South American countries (percentages)
Real exchange rates in Latin American countries according to monetary policy regime, 2002-2008
1.
The adverse developmental effects of the Dutch disease: the theory
2.
The recent economic performance of Latin America and the Dutch disease
3.
What can economic policy do?
Real appreciation and indirect deindustrialization
Capital mobility and direct deindustrialization
The staple thesis and the favorable developmental effects of resource booms
Terms of trade, exports and GDP growth in several Latin American countries Index 2000=100 Annual growth rates, 2000-2008 Country Terms of Trade 2008 Exports GDP Volume Value Peru 136.7 8.4 20.7 5.9 Colombia 138.1 5.7 14.4 4.3 Chile 164.7 5.5 16.8 4.2 Argentina 133.2 5.8 13.1 4.2 Brazil 110.4 8.4 17.3 3.6 Mexico 105.8 3.0 7.2 2.4
South American exports to China as percentage of each country’s total exports, 2000-2008
Source: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database and World Bank, World Development Indicators
Real exchange rates in several South American countries. 275.0
250.0
225.0
200.0
175.0 Argentina
150.0
125.0 Uruguay 100.0 Chile Perœ Colombia
75.0
Brasil 50.0
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
25.0
Source: Frenkel and Rapetti (2011). Bilateral rates vis a vis the United States (100 = 2000). Argentina
Brasil
Chile
Colombia
Perœ
Uruguay
Real exchange rates in South American countries. Minimum level of the 1990s, average of 2002-2008 and 2010 225 200 175 150 125 100
1995
1997 1997
75
1995
1995
1996
50 25 0
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
M ’n m o
Colombia
P r o m e d io
2 0 0 2 - 2 0 0 8
2 0 1 0
Peru
Uruguay
i
Source: Frenkel and Rapetti (2011). Bilateral rates vis a vis the United States (100 = 2000).
Increase in unit labor costs in US dollars and its determinants in several South American countries (percentages)
Real exchange rates in Latin American countries according to monetary policy regime, 2002-2008
