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Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study Presentation to the Arlington County Housing Commission May 1, 2014

Arlington County retained HR&A to update the 2012 Return on Investment Study by evaluating the net benefits of enhanced bus versus streetcar service.

HR&A analyzed the projected impact of enhanced bus versus streetcar service with regards to: Real estate value appreciation Quantity and timing of new real estate development Form of new development and impact on place-making Employment growth Tax revenue growth HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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HR&A estimated impacts to properties within ¼ mile of the alignment along Columbia Pike, in Pentagon City, and in Baileys Crossroads, over 30-years. Study Area

HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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The characteristics of the transit investments analyzed were defined by the AA/EA with direction from Arlington County and its transportation consultants.

• Because an agreement with VDOT stipulates that travel lanes cannot be removed from Columbia Pike, transit requiring a dedicated lane such as light rail transit (LRT) or bus rapid transit (BRT) is infeasible. • The enhanced bus system considered by this analysis largely corresponds to the TSM 2 alternative defined by the AA/EA report.

• The streetcar system considered by this analysis largely corresponds to the Skyline Central Plaza design alternative defined by the AA/EA report.

HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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HR&A found that streetcar will accelerate delivery of adopted plans, enhance regional competitiveness, and yield greater economic benefits.

Implementing a streetcar service along the Columbia Pike corridor is expected to generate… $2.2-$3.0 billion in net economic benefits over 30 years 4,600 incremental new jobs 10 years after construction $315-$620 million in incremental local tax revenues over 30 years $40-$75 million in incremental revenues for the Columbia Pike TIF over 30 years …over what would be generated by an enhanced bus. HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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HR&A employed a rigorous methodology incorporating evidence from national precedents and conditions particular to the Columbia Pike corridor.

Evaluate transportation characteristics Analyzed current Columbia Pike corridor real estate market conditions

Analyzed actual real estate impacts of existing transit systems Assessed local developer and retailer perceptions Synthesized findings to build model of streetcar and enhanced bus impacts HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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Past experience strongly suggests streetcar and similar rail modes more consistently generate real estate benefits than enhanced bus service. Enhanced Bus/BRT

Streetcar

Light Rail

Strong Pace / Strong Pace / Strong Pace / Price Quantity Price Quantity Price Quantity Premium Increase Premium Increase Premium Increase

Study ITDP: More Development for Your Transit Dollar New Real Estate Mantra: Location Near Public Transportation Capturing the Value of Transit Land Use Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit: Pittsburgh MLK East Busway Land Use Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit: Boston Silver Line Capitalization of BRT Network Expansions Effects Value Capture and TIF Options for Streetcar Construction Portland Streetcar Development Impacts TCRP Synthesis 86: Relationships between Streetcars and Built Environment The Impact of TOD on Housing Prices in San Diego Charlotte Streetcar Economic Development Study Land Value Impacts of Rail Transit Services in San Diego An Assessment of the DART LRT on Taxable Property Valuations Land Development at Selected HBLR Stations The Impact of HBLR on Residential Property Appreciation The Hiawatha Line: Impacts on Land Use and Housing Value

HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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In Portland and in New Jersey, streetcar (and streetcar-like) transit catalyzed dramatic neighborhood transformations through transit-oriented development.

Portland Streetcar • $4.5 Billion in new transit-oriented development catalyzed • Adjacent development uses 90% of FAR (vs. 43% more than 3 blocks away) • Property within 3 blocks achieved 40% premium over City after 11 yrs

Hudson Bergen Light Rail • $5.3 Billion in new transit-oriented residential development catalyzed • Property within ¼ mile of station areas appreciated at 17-20% greater annually than other property over 18 yrs

Boston Washington Street Silver Line • $650 Million in new development, but primarily Downtown near subway • 8% premium for adjacent properties over those 0.16 miles away, but no corridor value premium relative to City achieved within 9 yrs

Kansas City MAX • $5.2 Billion in new development, but primarily in Downtown and not oriented towards alignment • City now implementing streetcar to encourage more TOD HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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Most developers and retailers believed a streetcar system would confer greater advantages to the Columbia Pike transit corridor than an enhanced bus system.

Developer Findings • Most believed a streetcar would confer greater advantages to real estate dynamics than an enhanced bus • A smaller number believed a streetcar would not have a greater impact than an enhanced bus, and that it may be unlikely for either to be impactful • Almost all believed connecting to the Crystal City Streetcar would amplify the impacts of streetcar

Retailer Findings • Most are more likely to consider expanding along the corridor with a streetcar versus an enhanced bus

• Most believed streetcar presents distinct advantages to branding, placemaking, and wayfinding HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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Streetcar would ultimately do more to differentiate the Columbia Pike transit corridor in the region through its superior mobility effects….

Enhanced Bus Quality of rider experience Connections Corridor travel time Vehicle capacity Initial ridership w/ Crystal City Streetcar connection 2035 network volume to capacity ratio HR&A Advisors, Inc.

Streetcar

Improved over existing Smoother and quieter than buses, but overcapacity bus; not overcapacity Crystal City Streetcar Crystal City Streetcar (one(transfer), bus system, and seat ride), bus system, and Pentagon City Metro Pentagon City Metro 23 minutes 22 minutes 94 riders 155 riders

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11,800

15,900

1.19 (Indicates overcapacity)

0.91 (Indicates under capacity)

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…and also through its greater amenity effects.

Enhanced Bus Place-making function

Vehicle, station infrastructure, and signage

Infrastructure permanence Branding / differentiation effects Impact on corridor congestion

HR&A Advisors, Inc.

Stations Less unique positioning offers less brand value Lesser congestion reduction based on model ridership and capacity

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Streetcar Vehicle, tracks, wires, station infrastructure, signage Vehicles, stations, tracks, and wires Modern positioning offers cache and brand value Greater congestion reduction based on model ridership and capacity

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Based on these findings, HR&A projected that streetcar will catalyze more significant property value premiums versus enhanced bus. Enhanced Bus Residential / Retail Office

Streetcar Residential / Retail Office

Initial Premium over Baseline

2%

1%

6%

4%

Premium over Baseline After 10-Years

4%

2%

10%

7%

HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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Substantial development potential remains along the Columbia Pike Corridor. Incremental Growth Required for Corridor Build Out Residential Units

Office Square Feet

Retail Square Feet

Pentagon City

3,100

2,580,000

85,000

Columbia Pike

13,500

570,000

210,000

3,500

1,745,000

260,000

20,100

4,895,000

555,000

Baileys Crossroads Total

HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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HR&A projected that both enhanced bus and streetcar would support corridor development, but streetcar will do more and faster. Percent of Remaining Build-Out Achieved Within 30 Years Under Baseline Under Enhanced Bus

Under Streetcar

Pentagon City

100%

100%

100%

Columbia Pike

60%

65%

80%

Baileys Crossroads

25%

35%

50%

Total

58%

64%

75%

HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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HR&A estimated that streetcar would generate 2,800 more housing units, 70,000 more sq. ft. of retail, and 360,000 more sq. ft. of office than enhanced bus. Total New Real Estate Delivery Over 30 Years Under Baseline Under Enhanced Bus

Residential (units)

Under Streetcar

11,400

12,600

15,400

Retail (sq. ft.)

260,000

300,000

370,000

Office (sq. ft.)

3,410,000

3,610,000

3,970,000

HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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The return-on-investment study utilized the best available cost estimates for both the enhanced bus and streetcar systems.

One-Time Capital Costs (Millions of $2014) Annual Operations and Maintenance Costs (Millions of $2014)

Baseline

Enhanced Bus

Streetcar

$0

$67

$284

$15.7

$21.2

$24.5

Capital cost estimates for both the enhanced bus service and streetcar service were increased above the estimates in the AA/EA Report to reflect new information. The capital cost estimate of the enhanced bus service increased by $15M, and the capital cost estimate of the streetcar service increased by $31M.

HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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Over 30 years, HR&A projects that streetcar would generate $2.2-$3.0 billion in greater real estate impacts than enhanced bus service.

Net Incremental Benefits (Return on Investment) Over 30 Years $1.4 B

3% Discount Rate $4.4 B Enhanced Bus Streetcar $1.0 B 7% Discount Rate $3.2 B Economic benefits result from the appreciation of existing properties and greater extent and faster pace of new development. HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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Within ten years of project construction, streetcar service would catalyze real estate development enabling significantly more local jobs than enhance bus.

Incremental New Jobs Supported by 2027

2,000 Total Jobs

6,600

Enhanced Bus Streetcar

Development on the Columbia Pike induced by new transit creates accessible employment opportunities for County residents.

HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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Streetcar would also generate up to $620 million in additional tax revenues to Arlington and Fairfax Counties relative to enhanced bus.

Incremental Local Tax Revenues Over 30 Years $275 M 3% Discount Rate $895 M Enhanced Bus Streetcar

$140 M 7% Discount Rate $455 M

Fiscal benefits owe to real estate, personal property, business license (BPOL), sales, and meals tax revenues to Arlington and Fairfax Counties. HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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With the streetcar, the Columbia Pike TIF could generate an additional $55-105 million to the Transit-Oriented Affordable Housing (TOAH) fund over 30 years.

Incremental TIF Revenues Over 30 Years $30 M 3% Discount Rate $105 M Enhanced Bus Streetcar

$15 M 7% Discount Rate $55 M

The TIF dedicates one quarter of the incremental real property tax revenue derived from Columbia Pike to fund the TOAH. HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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A streetcar service would ultimately be more effective in meeting development goals for Columbia Pike, Pentagon City, and Baileys Crossroads.

Arlington County’s Columbia Pike Initiative and Columbia Pike Neighborhoods Area Plan envision a vibrant and livable corridor with affordable housing, increased density, and enhanced public facilities. Fairfax County’s Comprehensive Plan envisions Baileys Crossroads as a denser area featuring mixed uses and new amenities These plans expect the Columbia Pike corridor to accommodate a larger share of future regional growth. Attractive infrastructure improvements like streetcar make the corridor more competitive in capturing demand in the Capital region market.

HR&A Advisors, Inc.

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Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study Presentation to the Arlington County Housing Commission May 1, 2014