CoreNet AWS
CoreNet SUSAN BROWER, MINNESOTA STATE DEMOGRAPHER January 2016
How many additional “older adults” will Minnesota gain during this decade? Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)
85
1950s
55
60s
71
70s
67
80s
Source: U.S. C ensus Bureau
91 47 90s
00s
-‐
-‐
-‐
-‐
-‐
10s
20s
30s
40s
2050s
Unprecedented increases in MN’s “older adult” population Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands) 335 285
85
1950s
55
71
67
60s
70s
80s
97
91 47 90s
00s
10s
20s
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center
30s
66
56
40s
2050s
Projected Growth in Labor Force Annual Average, Ages 16+
38,000 32,000 25,000
13,000 8,000 4,000 1980-‐1990
1990-‐2000
2000-‐2010
2010-‐2020
2020-‐2030
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
2030-‐2040
Labor force participation before/after the Great Recession looks the same 100
Baby-‐b oomers ages 51-‐69 in 2014
90 80 70 60 50
2006
40
2014
30 20 10 0 88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
56
52
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
What if?: Immigration would need to increase considerably in order to keep current level of LF growth
261,400
326,400 290,700
214,200 151,100 83,100 35,500
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
Additional net migrants needed to maintain present labor force growth rate Net migrants in official projection
Birth rate below “replacement” since 2009
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center
When will labor shortages emerge? How big will they be? The State Demographic Center projects that labor force will grow by about 21,000 people between 2015 and 2020. DEED projects that employment will grow by about 100,000 during the same time period.
Media reports of shortages already here
Minnesota by race, 2012 White (non-‐Hispanic) and Of Color Population Minnesota, 2012 85+ 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5
Working-‐age population, 2015
0
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000
White (non-‐Hispanic)
Of Color
Source: 2012 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau.
How many additional “older adults” will Minnesota gain during this decade? Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)
85
1950s
55
60s
71
70s
67
80s
Source: U.S. C ensus Bureau
91 47 90s
00s
-‐
-‐
-‐
-‐
-‐
10s
20s
30s
40s
2050s
Unprecedented increases in MN’s “older adult” population Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands) 335 285
85
1950s
55
71
67
60s
70s
80s
97
91 47 90s
00s
10s
20s
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center
30s
66
56
40s
2050s
Projected Growth in Labor Force Annual Average, Ages 16+
38,000 32,000 25,000
13,000 8,000 4,000 1980-‐1990
1990-‐2000
2000-‐2010
2010-‐2020
2020-‐2030
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
2030-‐2040
Labor force participation before/after the Great Recession looks the same 100
Baby-‐b oomers ages 51-‐69 in 2014
90 80 70 60 50
2006
40
2014
30 20 10 0 88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
56
52
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
What if?: Immigration would need to increase considerably in order to keep current level of LF growth
261,400
326,400 290,700
214,200 151,100 83,100 35,500
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
Additional net migrants needed to maintain present labor force growth rate Net migrants in official projection
Birth rate below “replacement” since 2009
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center
When will labor shortages emerge? How big will they be? The State Demographic Center projects that labor force will grow by about 21,000 people between 2015 and 2020. DEED projects that employment will grow by about 100,000 during the same time period.
Media reports of shortages already here
Minnesota by race, 2012 White (non-‐Hispanic) and Of Color Population Minnesota, 2012 85+ 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5
Working-‐age population, 2015
0
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000
White (non-‐Hispanic)
Of Color
Source: 2012 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau.
