Dc Readers
Supplementary Study material for classroom program
Dc Readers
5
Classes by Dipin Damodaran and Chandan Mittal
2. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution India submitted INDCs to UNFCCC. 1 Introduction The action plan, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, or INDCs, in official language, is built around three elements — (a) reduction in emissions intensity, or emissions per unit of GDP, (b) an increase in forest cover, and (c) a greater role for renewable energy in power generation. 2 First Intended Contributions - reduction in emissions intensity In its INDC, India has pledged to improve the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35 per cent by 2030 below 2005 levels. The 33 to 35 per cent reduction in emission intensity compared to 2005 levels by 2030 builds on an earlier target that India had set for itself in 2009. At that time, in the run-up to the Copenhagen climate conference, India had committed itself to a 20 to 25 per cent reduction in emissions intensity by the year 2020 on 2005 levels. India is said to be on target to fulfill this commitment. The progress in emission intensity reductions thus far has been enabled mostly by energy efficiency measures, like the shift, first, to CFL bulbs, and then, to LED lights. From here on, however, industry-wide efforts would be required to take the emission intensity further down. 3 Second intended contribution - Increase in forest cover It has agreed to enhance its forest cover which will absorb 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2, the main gas responsible for global warming) by 2030. India has been banking heavily on its afforestation drive to score some easy points in the international climate change negotiations. In its INDC, India has said it wants to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030. The cabinet has already approved a proposed legislation to manage a huge afforestation fund that is built using money that companies are charged as compensation if they set up projects on forest land. highways. The government also plans to develop 140,000 km of tree-line along both sides of national However, the experts warn that the ability of trees, or plantations, to act as a carbon sink is limited as compared to natural dense forests. Afforestation can thus have only limited utility. 4 Third intended contribution - Renewable energy It has also pledged to increase the share of non-fossil fuels-based electricity to 40 per cent by 2030. India has said 40 per cent of the total installed power capacity in 2030 would be based on non-fossil fuel based sources. At the end of July this year, renewable energy, nuclear energy and hydropower — all non-fossil fuel sources — together contributed 30 per cent of the overall installed capacity. India is aiming for a total installed power production capacity of somewhere around 800 GW in 2030, almost a three-fold jump from the current levels. To fulfill this commitment, it would have to install 320 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by that time. However, a) The 63 GW target for nuclear energy for 2032 is unlikely to be met considering that most of the nuclear projects are running several years late. The current installed capacity of nuclear energy is only 5.7 GW. b) Hydropower currently contributes about 42 GW of capacity. Considering the kind of opposition to big dams now, it would be a difficult task to double the capacity in the next 10 to 12 years as is being planned. c) It would therefore fall on the renewable energy sources — solar, wind and biomass — to achieve the 40 per cent target India has set for itself. The government has already unveiled an ambitious programme of installing 175 GW of renewable capacity by 2022. If this is achieved, adding another 50 GW in the next eight years would not be a very difficult task. 5 Why India has intended for such an action plan?
#8860211234. #100, opposite subway, Old Rajendra Nagar Market, New Delhi
Supplementary Study material for classroom program
Dc Readers
6
Classes by Dipin Damodaran and Chandan Mittal
India has accepted the huge impact that climate change is exerting and will exert on different sectors of its economy and has agreed to enhance investments to adapt in vulnerable sectors like agriculture, water resources, coastal regions, health and disaster management. 6 How much will it cost? India has also reiterated its need for international finance and technology support to meet its climate goals. In this regard, it has said it would require at least US $ 2.5 trillion (at 2014-15 prices) to meet its climate change actions between now and 2030. 7 Dissecting India’s INDC - An Analysis A) India’s emissions intensity targets are similar to that of China’s. India has pledged to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35 per cent by 2030, below 2005 levels. China has pledged to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 60-65 per cent during the same period. In 2030, both the countries will have almost same emissions intensity levels – 0.12 million tonnes CO2 per billion USD (in 2005 USD). This means that both these countries will emit about 120,000 tonnes of CO2 for every 1 billion USD of GDP. B) India’s pledge to install 40 per cent of its total electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy sources is more ambitious than even that of the United States. In 2030, even under the most ambitious Clean Power Plan of US President Barack Obama, the US will only have about 30 per cent of its electricity capacity on non-fossils. Centre for Science and Environment(CSE) projections show that in 2030, India will have about 250-300 GW of solar and wind energy capacity. Under the Clean Power Plan, the US will reach 275 solar and wind capacity by 2030. China has pledged 300 GW solar and wind power by 2030.
of
GW
C) India’s forestry target is also very ambitious. It intends to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 through additional forests by 2030. In comparison, China will increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters by 2030. This translates into an additional carbon sink of about 5 billion tonnes of CO2. Considering that China has three times more land area than India, India’s goal seems very ambitious. D) CSE’s projections shows that in 2030 India’s total emissions could reach about 4.5-5.0 billion tonnes. Its per capita emissions would be about 3.5 tonnes. In comparison, the per capita emissions of the US China are projected to be around 12 tonnes.
and
E) “From all angles, India’s INDC is as good as China’s and better than the US’s considering that both these countries have higher emissions than India and are economically more capable of reducing their emissions and mitigating climate change,” says Chandra Bhushan of Centre for Science and Environment. F) India’s INDC also highlights some tough challenges for the world. The INDCs submitted by all major emitters indicate the cumulative emissions of the world between 2012 and 2030 would be in the range of 700 to 800 Gt of CO2. According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to meet the 2 degree C temperature increase target, the world has an emission budget of only 1,000 billion tonnes of CO2 till 2100. The world will consume most of this budget by 2030, leaving a small space for developing countries in Asia and Africa to grow in the future. “INDCs submitted by all major countries indicate that the world is not on a path to the 2 degree C target. This would be disastrous for poor people across the world. It is important this reality is discussed and resolved in the Paris climate conference,” adds Sunita Narain. 8 Expert opinions “India’s INDC is fair and is quite ambitious, specifically on renewable energy and forestry,” says Sunita Narain, director general, CSE. “India’s INDC reflects its development challenges, aspirations of large numbers of poor people and the realities of climate change,” adds Chandra Bhushan, deputy director general, CSE. #8860211234. #100, opposite subway, Old Rajendra Nagar Market, New Delhi
Dc Readers
5
Classes by Dipin Damodaran and Chandan Mittal
2. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution India submitted INDCs to UNFCCC. 1 Introduction The action plan, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, or INDCs, in official language, is built around three elements — (a) reduction in emissions intensity, or emissions per unit of GDP, (b) an increase in forest cover, and (c) a greater role for renewable energy in power generation. 2 First Intended Contributions - reduction in emissions intensity In its INDC, India has pledged to improve the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35 per cent by 2030 below 2005 levels. The 33 to 35 per cent reduction in emission intensity compared to 2005 levels by 2030 builds on an earlier target that India had set for itself in 2009. At that time, in the run-up to the Copenhagen climate conference, India had committed itself to a 20 to 25 per cent reduction in emissions intensity by the year 2020 on 2005 levels. India is said to be on target to fulfill this commitment. The progress in emission intensity reductions thus far has been enabled mostly by energy efficiency measures, like the shift, first, to CFL bulbs, and then, to LED lights. From here on, however, industry-wide efforts would be required to take the emission intensity further down. 3 Second intended contribution - Increase in forest cover It has agreed to enhance its forest cover which will absorb 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2, the main gas responsible for global warming) by 2030. India has been banking heavily on its afforestation drive to score some easy points in the international climate change negotiations. In its INDC, India has said it wants to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030. The cabinet has already approved a proposed legislation to manage a huge afforestation fund that is built using money that companies are charged as compensation if they set up projects on forest land. highways. The government also plans to develop 140,000 km of tree-line along both sides of national However, the experts warn that the ability of trees, or plantations, to act as a carbon sink is limited as compared to natural dense forests. Afforestation can thus have only limited utility. 4 Third intended contribution - Renewable energy It has also pledged to increase the share of non-fossil fuels-based electricity to 40 per cent by 2030. India has said 40 per cent of the total installed power capacity in 2030 would be based on non-fossil fuel based sources. At the end of July this year, renewable energy, nuclear energy and hydropower — all non-fossil fuel sources — together contributed 30 per cent of the overall installed capacity. India is aiming for a total installed power production capacity of somewhere around 800 GW in 2030, almost a three-fold jump from the current levels. To fulfill this commitment, it would have to install 320 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by that time. However, a) The 63 GW target for nuclear energy for 2032 is unlikely to be met considering that most of the nuclear projects are running several years late. The current installed capacity of nuclear energy is only 5.7 GW. b) Hydropower currently contributes about 42 GW of capacity. Considering the kind of opposition to big dams now, it would be a difficult task to double the capacity in the next 10 to 12 years as is being planned. c) It would therefore fall on the renewable energy sources — solar, wind and biomass — to achieve the 40 per cent target India has set for itself. The government has already unveiled an ambitious programme of installing 175 GW of renewable capacity by 2022. If this is achieved, adding another 50 GW in the next eight years would not be a very difficult task. 5 Why India has intended for such an action plan?
#8860211234. #100, opposite subway, Old Rajendra Nagar Market, New Delhi
Supplementary Study material for classroom program
Dc Readers
6
Classes by Dipin Damodaran and Chandan Mittal
India has accepted the huge impact that climate change is exerting and will exert on different sectors of its economy and has agreed to enhance investments to adapt in vulnerable sectors like agriculture, water resources, coastal regions, health and disaster management. 6 How much will it cost? India has also reiterated its need for international finance and technology support to meet its climate goals. In this regard, it has said it would require at least US $ 2.5 trillion (at 2014-15 prices) to meet its climate change actions between now and 2030. 7 Dissecting India’s INDC - An Analysis A) India’s emissions intensity targets are similar to that of China’s. India has pledged to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35 per cent by 2030, below 2005 levels. China has pledged to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 60-65 per cent during the same period. In 2030, both the countries will have almost same emissions intensity levels – 0.12 million tonnes CO2 per billion USD (in 2005 USD). This means that both these countries will emit about 120,000 tonnes of CO2 for every 1 billion USD of GDP. B) India’s pledge to install 40 per cent of its total electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy sources is more ambitious than even that of the United States. In 2030, even under the most ambitious Clean Power Plan of US President Barack Obama, the US will only have about 30 per cent of its electricity capacity on non-fossils. Centre for Science and Environment(CSE) projections show that in 2030, India will have about 250-300 GW of solar and wind energy capacity. Under the Clean Power Plan, the US will reach 275 solar and wind capacity by 2030. China has pledged 300 GW solar and wind power by 2030.
of
GW
C) India’s forestry target is also very ambitious. It intends to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 through additional forests by 2030. In comparison, China will increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters by 2030. This translates into an additional carbon sink of about 5 billion tonnes of CO2. Considering that China has three times more land area than India, India’s goal seems very ambitious. D) CSE’s projections shows that in 2030 India’s total emissions could reach about 4.5-5.0 billion tonnes. Its per capita emissions would be about 3.5 tonnes. In comparison, the per capita emissions of the US China are projected to be around 12 tonnes.
and
E) “From all angles, India’s INDC is as good as China’s and better than the US’s considering that both these countries have higher emissions than India and are economically more capable of reducing their emissions and mitigating climate change,” says Chandra Bhushan of Centre for Science and Environment. F) India’s INDC also highlights some tough challenges for the world. The INDCs submitted by all major emitters indicate the cumulative emissions of the world between 2012 and 2030 would be in the range of 700 to 800 Gt of CO2. According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to meet the 2 degree C temperature increase target, the world has an emission budget of only 1,000 billion tonnes of CO2 till 2100. The world will consume most of this budget by 2030, leaving a small space for developing countries in Asia and Africa to grow in the future. “INDCs submitted by all major countries indicate that the world is not on a path to the 2 degree C target. This would be disastrous for poor people across the world. It is important this reality is discussed and resolved in the Paris climate conference,” adds Sunita Narain. 8 Expert opinions “India’s INDC is fair and is quite ambitious, specifically on renewable energy and forestry,” says Sunita Narain, director general, CSE. “India’s INDC reflects its development challenges, aspirations of large numbers of poor people and the realities of climate change,” adds Chandra Bhushan, deputy director general, CSE. #8860211234. #100, opposite subway, Old Rajendra Nagar Market, New Delhi
