emissions
Measuring Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in Consumption Seminar on Green growth and Official Statistics Korea Paul Schreyer (OECD)
Presentation 1. Background 2. Basic methodology 3. Results 4. Next steps
1. Background –where are we now? • 40% increase in CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2008. • About 20% from OECD economies, but over half from China alone; whose emissions trebled over the period – partly in response to domestic demand but also for OECD consumers. • China’s share of US and Japanese imported goods up from 6.5 and 11% in 1995 to 15.5 and 21% in 2010. Much of this in products with high CO2 emissions. • How much of the reduction in OECD countries’ emission intensities a displacement effect? • Moving from production to consumption perspective can help answering this question
1. Background • First OECD estimates by Ahmad and Wyckoff (2003) • Updated and improved estimates by Ahmad and Yamano (2011) • Part of OECD’s Green Growth Indicators
• During discussions about GGIndicators, broad consensus among OECD countries about desirability of ‘footprint approach’ to complement production-based estimates
2. Methodology: basic idea Demand-based emissions = emissions from domestic production + emissions embodied in imports - emissions embodied in exports Embodiment = direct and indirect content of emissions in trade flows
2. Methodology: tools • 3 main statistical tools: – International input-output tables (OECD I/O tables for 47 countries) – Fossil fuel use and associated CO2 emissions by industry and country (IEA) – Matching bilateral trade data (OECD trade data)
2. Methodology: computation • Main measurement issues: – Matching of trade and input-output (classificiations, industry detail)
data
– Distinction between final demand and intermediate products for trade flows – Treatment of emissions of autoproducers, allocation of emissions of international transport
3. Results CO2 emissions from domestic consumption and production – Mt
US per capita emissions from production 5 * China’s in 2005 but 6 * higher with consumption
Trade balance in CO2 emissions (domestic production minus domestic consumption) percentage of global emissions 1995 - 2005
Perspective: Growth in deficit between 1995 and 2005 equal to another UK
CO2 emissions: tonnes per capita - domestic production and domestic consumption
No change in per Difference in in capita emissions consumption and production between Production 2000 and 2005= but of perin 2%30% increase capita emissions emissions embodied in R.O.W in consumption
Policy implications? • Implication is NOT: border taxes and protectionism – this would ignore the many positive dynamic effects of international trade, and international investment • But shows that instruments directed at consumers and demand are just as important as supply-side instruments • Adds to discussions about international equity and burden-sharing
4. Next steps
• CO2: – Projections into more recent years – Longer term development of framework trace carbon flows embodied in property income and contribution of capital.
Next steps (2) • Analysis of other areas: ‘virtual water’, material flows • Although: local versus global environmental issue to be considered • I/O – trade tool is versatile: development of integrated I/O and trade data for multiple purposes (trade in value added, global value chains, trade and employment …) • International concertations WB,…) have started
(OECD,
WTO,
Thank you! [email protected] www.oecd.org/greengrowth
Presentation 1. Background 2. Basic methodology 3. Results 4. Next steps
1. Background –where are we now? • 40% increase in CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2008. • About 20% from OECD economies, but over half from China alone; whose emissions trebled over the period – partly in response to domestic demand but also for OECD consumers. • China’s share of US and Japanese imported goods up from 6.5 and 11% in 1995 to 15.5 and 21% in 2010. Much of this in products with high CO2 emissions. • How much of the reduction in OECD countries’ emission intensities a displacement effect? • Moving from production to consumption perspective can help answering this question
1. Background • First OECD estimates by Ahmad and Wyckoff (2003) • Updated and improved estimates by Ahmad and Yamano (2011) • Part of OECD’s Green Growth Indicators
• During discussions about GGIndicators, broad consensus among OECD countries about desirability of ‘footprint approach’ to complement production-based estimates
2. Methodology: basic idea Demand-based emissions = emissions from domestic production + emissions embodied in imports - emissions embodied in exports Embodiment = direct and indirect content of emissions in trade flows
2. Methodology: tools • 3 main statistical tools: – International input-output tables (OECD I/O tables for 47 countries) – Fossil fuel use and associated CO2 emissions by industry and country (IEA) – Matching bilateral trade data (OECD trade data)
2. Methodology: computation • Main measurement issues: – Matching of trade and input-output (classificiations, industry detail)
data
– Distinction between final demand and intermediate products for trade flows – Treatment of emissions of autoproducers, allocation of emissions of international transport
3. Results CO2 emissions from domestic consumption and production – Mt
US per capita emissions from production 5 * China’s in 2005 but 6 * higher with consumption
Trade balance in CO2 emissions (domestic production minus domestic consumption) percentage of global emissions 1995 - 2005
Perspective: Growth in deficit between 1995 and 2005 equal to another UK
CO2 emissions: tonnes per capita - domestic production and domestic consumption
No change in per Difference in in capita emissions consumption and production between Production 2000 and 2005= but of perin 2%30% increase capita emissions emissions embodied in R.O.W in consumption
Policy implications? • Implication is NOT: border taxes and protectionism – this would ignore the many positive dynamic effects of international trade, and international investment • But shows that instruments directed at consumers and demand are just as important as supply-side instruments • Adds to discussions about international equity and burden-sharing
4. Next steps
• CO2: – Projections into more recent years – Longer term development of framework trace carbon flows embodied in property income and contribution of capital.
Next steps (2) • Analysis of other areas: ‘virtual water’, material flows • Although: local versus global environmental issue to be considered • I/O – trade tool is versatile: development of integrated I/O and trade data for multiple purposes (trade in value added, global value chains, trade and employment …) • International concertations WB,…) have started
(OECD,
WTO,
Thank you! [email protected] www.oecd.org/greengrowth
