Energy futures
ENERGY FUTURES: Global energy Focus demand forecast on Africa
A MACRO-ECONOMIC VIEW AND LOOK AHEAD TO 2035
Prosperity
Africa will be one of the fastest-growing regions for power demand, particularly gas in Nigeria, Egypt and Algeria.
Fossil fuels will dominate the global energy mix Renewables will expand their share
Gas demand in Africa (Mtoe) 150 100 50 0
5,000
Oil Coal Gas
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
1990
2011
2020
2025
2030
The US shale boom has reduced the need for the US to import oil from West Africa
Egypt
2020
2025
2030
2035
Shift from coal to gas in power generation (particularly in China and the US)
Greater use of natural gas as a transport fuel
Renewable energy Africa is rich in resources, but its renewable energy has been underutilised due to cost and reliability constraints.
China needs resources to fuel its economy. How will energy trade between Africa resource exporters and China evolve?
Infrastructure Present
2035
Inadequate infrastructure remains an obstacle towards Africa achieving its full economic and energy growth potential. Can decentralised networks deliver more cost-effective services to Africa’s growing population?
Security of supply
Tanzania
Angola
2 in 3 without access to electricity
East African gas boom
What is the balance of base load, renewables and quick-starting power plants required to make energy supply more reliable?
Resources and transparency
Mozambique
Is export revenue being managed to ensure extractive industries yield broader societal benefits?
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2013, New Policies Scenario
Main drivers
Ties with China
Energy poverty in subSaharan Africa
West African oil exporters
2035
2011
Gas production in Africa is expected to almost double by 2035
Nigeria
Global energy demand (Mtoe)
1990
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2013, New Policies Scenario
Renewables
Global natural gas demand will rise more quickly than oil or coal.
Traditional exporters (Nigeria and Angola) have not derived broad prosperity from the development of their hydrocarbon reserves. How can this change?
200
Fossil Fuels
Algeria
Macro-economic implications
Mozambique and Tanzania have made spectacular offshore gas discoveries and are primed to become exporters of LNG after 2020.
World Bank Voice and Accountability Index: Africa EITI countries (average percentile ranking); 0 (worst) - 100 (Best) 30 20 10
Average 1998
Average 2008
Source: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative
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A MACRO-ECONOMIC VIEW AND LOOK AHEAD TO 2035
Prosperity
Africa will be one of the fastest-growing regions for power demand, particularly gas in Nigeria, Egypt and Algeria.
Fossil fuels will dominate the global energy mix Renewables will expand their share
Gas demand in Africa (Mtoe) 150 100 50 0
5,000
Oil Coal Gas
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
1990
2011
2020
2025
2030
The US shale boom has reduced the need for the US to import oil from West Africa
Egypt
2020
2025
2030
2035
Shift from coal to gas in power generation (particularly in China and the US)
Greater use of natural gas as a transport fuel
Renewable energy Africa is rich in resources, but its renewable energy has been underutilised due to cost and reliability constraints.
China needs resources to fuel its economy. How will energy trade between Africa resource exporters and China evolve?
Infrastructure Present
2035
Inadequate infrastructure remains an obstacle towards Africa achieving its full economic and energy growth potential. Can decentralised networks deliver more cost-effective services to Africa’s growing population?
Security of supply
Tanzania
Angola
2 in 3 without access to electricity
East African gas boom
What is the balance of base load, renewables and quick-starting power plants required to make energy supply more reliable?
Resources and transparency
Mozambique
Is export revenue being managed to ensure extractive industries yield broader societal benefits?
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2013, New Policies Scenario
Main drivers
Ties with China
Energy poverty in subSaharan Africa
West African oil exporters
2035
2011
Gas production in Africa is expected to almost double by 2035
Nigeria
Global energy demand (Mtoe)
1990
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2013, New Policies Scenario
Renewables
Global natural gas demand will rise more quickly than oil or coal.
Traditional exporters (Nigeria and Angola) have not derived broad prosperity from the development of their hydrocarbon reserves. How can this change?
200
Fossil Fuels
Algeria
Macro-economic implications
Mozambique and Tanzania have made spectacular offshore gas discoveries and are primed to become exporters of LNG after 2020.
World Bank Voice and Accountability Index: Africa EITI countries (average percentile ranking); 0 (worst) - 100 (Best) 30 20 10
Average 1998
Average 2008
Source: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative
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