FORWARD CURVE INTEREST RATE CURVE
FORWARD CURVE 6.5
6.5
CNH CNY
6.3
6.3
NDF
6.1
6.1
CBA forecasts 5.9
5.9 spot 1m
3m
6m
9m
12m 18m 24m
INTEREST RATE CURVE %
% 8
8 lending
CHIBOR 6
6
4
4
deposit
2
2
0
0 O/N
Prev
Daily
China Market Snapshot Current
Close
Change
USD/CNY
6.3924
6.3883
0.06%
USD/CNY
USD/CNH
6.3785
6.3755
0.05%
3 Month CNY NDF*
-0.43%
-0.34%
12 Month CNY NDF*
-1.59%
-1.44%
Shanghai Composite
2,534
2,559
Shenzhen Composite
1,134
3 Month CHIBOR (%)
5.18
2 Year Bond Yield (%) 10 Year Bond Yield (%)
1m
3m
6m
9m
12m 1-3y 3-5y
End Period Current
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
6.3924
6.3711
6.2756
6.2128
China 2 Year Bond Yield (%)
3.63
3.50
3.50
3.70
-0.08 ppts
China 10 Year Bond Yield (%)
3.94
3.95
3.95
4.10
-0.16 ppts
Benchmark 1 Year Lending rate (%)
6.56
6.56
6.56
6.56
-0.98%
Required Reserve Ratio (RRR) (%)
21.50
22.50
23.00
23.00
1,143
-0.79%
Real GDP Grow th (%YoY)
9.5
9.6
9.4
9.2
5.18
0 bps
Inflation (%YoY)
6.5
5.0
4.4
4.0
3.63
3.63
0.00
Non-food Inflation (%YoY)
2.9
2.3
2.2
2.1
3.94
3.94
0.00
Food Inflation (%YoY)
14.8
11.5
9.5
8.5
Source: Bloomberg, * denotes % difference from USD/CNY
China Forecasts
Source: Bloomberg, CBA
CNY TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATE & GDP GROWTH
Index
%
114
13.5
CNY TWI (lhs) 110
11.5
106
9.5
GDP growth (rhs)
102
7.5
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
NET FOREIGN EQUITY BUYING US$ bn
India, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan andThailand
US$ bn
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
SGD NOMINAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (SGDNEER) 119
119 Upper bound
115
115 Moving mid point
SGDNEER 111
111 Lower bound
L C•
107
107
103 Jan 10
103 Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
6.5
CNH CNY
6.3
6.3
NDF
6.1
6.1
CBA forecasts 5.9
5.9 spot 1m
3m
6m
9m
12m 18m 24m
INTEREST RATE CURVE %
% 8
8 lending
CHIBOR 6
6
4
4
deposit
2
2
0
0 O/N
Prev
Daily
China Market Snapshot Current
Close
Change
USD/CNY
6.3924
6.3883
0.06%
USD/CNY
USD/CNH
6.3785
6.3755
0.05%
3 Month CNY NDF*
-0.43%
-0.34%
12 Month CNY NDF*
-1.59%
-1.44%
Shanghai Composite
2,534
2,559
Shenzhen Composite
1,134
3 Month CHIBOR (%)
5.18
2 Year Bond Yield (%) 10 Year Bond Yield (%)
1m
3m
6m
9m
12m 1-3y 3-5y
End Period Current
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
6.3924
6.3711
6.2756
6.2128
China 2 Year Bond Yield (%)
3.63
3.50
3.50
3.70
-0.08 ppts
China 10 Year Bond Yield (%)
3.94
3.95
3.95
4.10
-0.16 ppts
Benchmark 1 Year Lending rate (%)
6.56
6.56
6.56
6.56
-0.98%
Required Reserve Ratio (RRR) (%)
21.50
22.50
23.00
23.00
1,143
-0.79%
Real GDP Grow th (%YoY)
9.5
9.6
9.4
9.2
5.18
0 bps
Inflation (%YoY)
6.5
5.0
4.4
4.0
3.63
3.63
0.00
Non-food Inflation (%YoY)
2.9
2.3
2.2
2.1
3.94
3.94
0.00
Food Inflation (%YoY)
14.8
11.5
9.5
8.5
Source: Bloomberg, * denotes % difference from USD/CNY
China Forecasts
Source: Bloomberg, CBA
CNY TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATE & GDP GROWTH
Index
%
114
13.5
CNY TWI (lhs) 110
11.5
106
9.5
GDP growth (rhs)
102
7.5
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
NET FOREIGN EQUITY BUYING US$ bn
India, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan andThailand
US$ bn
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
SGD NOMINAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (SGDNEER) 119
119 Upper bound
115
115 Moving mid point
SGDNEER 111
111 Lower bound
L C•
107
107
103 Jan 10
103 Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
