FRANCE
FRANCE
1899 Preston White Drive, Reston, Virginia 20191 (703) 264-7200 © PRIMIR/NPES 2008
INTRODUCTION In today’s global business, print faces constant change and multinational challenges. In order to react intelligently and be proactive printing industry business leaders urgently need worldwide data to reference when making internationally-based business decisions. PRIMIR recently released a series of three reports on the “World Wide Market for Print.” Pira International was commissioned to investigate the key global print markets. This study identified 51 country markets that make up 99% of the global commercial printing industry. The series of reports detail social and economic climate in each region, demographic profiles, advertising trends, internet usage/adoption, print markets and applications, print process share, and market sizing for presses, equipment, consumables and paper. Forecasts are provided through 2011. The report that follows is a summary of data and information from all three reports pertaining to this specific country. Note: Unless otherwise noted, the data is presented in U.S. Dollars, taking into account forecast rates for GDP growth and inflation, constant 2006 exchange rates have been applied. The final report includes a database where statistics are provided for both current and constant U.S. Dollars as well as in local currency (both current and constant).
FRANCE - OVERVIEW France is in the southwest of Europe, bordering on Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, Italy and Spain and with coastlines on the North Sea, the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. With an area of 543,965 square kilometers (210,026 square miles) France is more than twice the size of the UK, albeit with a very similar population at 60.7 million, some 75% of whom are urban-dwelling, with Greater Paris the only major conurbation.
Literacy levels compare favorably with other developed economies at 99%, with 99% of the population completing primary level education and 94% completing secondary level education in 2003. Life expectancy is 75.8 years for men and 83.0 years for women. Overall GDP for 2006 is projected at US$2.09 billion, with GDP per capita at US$34,472.
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France is a republic with a written constitution dating back to 1958. It has an elected president, who is the chief of state (five-year term). The president’s responsibilities include naming the prime minister, presiding over the cabinet and commanding the armed forces. In addition, the president may put issues to a national referendum, dissolve the National Assembly and assume full executive power in certain emergency situations. The prime minister is the head of government and leader of the cabinet, which is made up of ministers, ministers delegate and secretaries of state. Legislative power lies with the bicameral parliament, made up of the National Assembly (577 seats) and the Senate (319 seats). Jacques Chirac of the centre-right coalition (RPR) has been the president of France since 1995; the current Prime Minister is Dominique de Villepin, the leader of the Socialist party, which has been in office since 1997.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS The population of France is estimated at 60.7 million. Population projections over the coming years show an expected increase in the populace of approximately three million in the next 45 years, taking the number of French inhabitants up to 63.1 million by 2050. While a sizeable increase, this is not so great as projected in other countries such as the UK.
In common with other western countries, France has an aging population. The median age of the population today is 39.3 years and this is forecast to increase to 45.5 by 2050; 21.1% of the population is currently over the age of 60 and this is forecast to increase to 33% by 2050.
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Figure 1 France: Long-term Demographic Trends by Age Group, 2000-2050 0-14
15-64
65+
Total population
70
64,000 63,407 63,116
60
% population
62,000
65.0 60.9
40
61,000
57.2 27.1
30
60,000
22.6 20
18.7
59,278
16.5
59,000
15.7
16.3
10
Total population ('000s)
50
63,000
58,000
0
57,000 2000
2025
2050
Source: United Nations
ECONOMIC TRENDS Due to its extensive arable area, rich soil and varied climate, France has developed a very strong agricultural sector. It is the world’s second largest exporter of agricultural goods after the USA, its main exports being wheat, pork, beef, poultry, wine and dairy products. Despite its lack of mineral reserves, France is also a major manufacturer, including heavy industry, food processing, motor vehicles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, fashion and perfume. It also has a strong services sector, with tourism an important source of employment and revenue. These facts, combined with its highly skilled workforce, have contributed to place France as the fifth largest industrialized economy in the Western world.
In 2006 GDP in France is projected to be US$2.09 billion, with GDP growth standing at 2%, up from 1.4% in 2005 and forecast to rise to 2.1% in 2007. Inflation levels are under control, standing at 1.3% in 2005 and projected to rise to 1.5% in 2006 and 1.6% in 2007.
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Pension and healthcare reforms as well as a greater flexibility in the labor market in recent years have helped to achieve greater efficiency in the economy. The French government has focused on measures to create jobs and promote investment and domestic growth. However, more reforms will be needed in order to really tackle France’s unemployment problem and help the economy adapt so as to be able to benefit from increased global demand. In addition, measures will be needed to address the issue of France’s aging population, which in future years will put an even greater burden on the French welfare system.
In general, however, the economic outlook for France is favorable. The economy is likely to grow in line with budget forecasts in the short term and unemployment levels should fall if the appropriate measures are taken. The government deficit is under control and a continued withdrawal of the state from commercial activities should help stimulate growth and strengthen the labor market. Since 1999 monetary policy has been controlled by the Central Bank in Frankfurt and in 2002 the Euro replaced the franc as the currency of France.
Table 1 France: Key Economic Indicators, 2003-2007 Indicator Population ('000s) Exchange rate (=US$1) Purchasing power parity (=US$1) GDP (local currency, millions, current prices) GDP (local currency, millions, constant 2000 prices) GDP (current, US$ million) GDP, PPP (current, US$ million) GDP per capita (US$) GDP per capita, PPP (US$) GDP growth (%) GDP deflator (%) Consumer price index (2000=100) Imports (US$ million) Exports (US$ million)
2003 60,006 0.88 0.93 1,586,793 1,505,166
2004 60,250 0.80 0.92 1,645,278 1,536,774
2005 60,496 0.80 0.91 1,690,432 1,558,289
2006p 60,702 0.84 0.90 1,751,229 1,589,455
2007f 60,909 0.84 0.90 1,817,998 1,622,834
1,794,389 1,679,427 29,904 27,988 0.9 1.4 105.8 370,178 364,725
2,045,581 1,758,899 33,951 29,193 2.1 1.6 108.0 442,584 424,451
2,105,864 1,830,110 34,810 30,252 1.4 1.3 109.9 482,708 439,816
2,092,532 1,900,467 34,472 31,308 2.0 1.5 111.6 n/a n/a
2,172,532 1,988,171 35,668 32,641 2.1 1.6 113.4 n/a n/a
Note: p=projected; f=forecast Source: Pira International, Ltd calculations from the United Nations (population data), International Monetary Fund (economic data)
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THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT There were 85 daily newspapers in print in France in 2004, 24 of which are nationals and 61 regional/local titles. Total circulation was 7.9 million, down 5.8% from 2000. Many French newspapers have undergone changes in ownership in recent years, as the sector has struggled in the face of competition from the Internet. The top selling daily is Ouest France which has a circulation of 783,000, followed by Le Monde with a circulation of 381,000. In 2004, newspaper advertising revenue was US$2,906 million, the third highest in Europe after the UK and Germany.
In 2004 there were 4,498 magazine titles in France, an increase of 11% compared to 2000, with 30% of revenues derived from advertising and 70% from sales. There were approximately 14 major magazine publishers in 2004, but many hundreds of publishers in total. Revenue from magazine advertising was US$2.72 billion, while total print advertising expenditure in France was at US$12.2 billion the third highest in Europe, up 9% from 1995. Tobacco advertising is banned by law, advertising of OTC drugs is permitted and there are restrictions on advertising alcohol and on advertising to children.
Table 2 France: Advertising and Print Media Trends, 2000-2004 Advertising media
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
9,342.3 5,668.0 2,341.1 2,245.3 1,081.6 60.7 132.8
8,563.8 5,245.7 2,126.2 2,109.2 1,010.3 61.3 102.9
8,886.7 5,303.9 2,181.4 2,101.4 1,021.1 59.7 93.2
10,667.0 6,211.1 2,589.2 2,430.0 1,191.9 58.2 147.9
12,177.6 6,955.0 2,906.2 2,718.7 1,330.1 57.1 244.7
Newspaper trends Number of paid-for dailies Number of paid-for Sundays Circulation of paid-for dailies ('000s) Circulation of paid-for Sundays ('000s)
83 29 8,423 4,198
85 32 8,429 4,319
85 32 8,151 4,233
85 32 8,037 4,264
85 32 7,934 4,238
Magazine trends Number of consumer titles Number of business-to-business titles
2,836 1,201
3,000 1,191
2,797 1,136
2,930 1,200
3,281 1,217
Above-the-line advertising (media sales) Total advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper advertising expenditure (US$ million) Magazine advertising expenditure (US$ million) Outdoor advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print's share of advertising expenditure (%) Internet advertising expenditure (US$ million)
Source: World Advertising Trends, World Press Trends, World Magazine Trends
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In 2004, 12 national dailies and 31 regional dailies were available on-line, up 43% from 2000. In 2005 it was estimated that Internet penetration was at 43% in the population, up from 14% in 2000. There are an estimated 9.6 million broadband subscribers currently in France.
Figure 2 France: Trends in Internet Usage, 2000-2005 Internet users (%)
Broadband penetration (%)
45
43.3
40 34.7
% population
35 30
27.8
25
22.3
20 15
17.9 15.2
14.3 10.5
10 5.9
5
2.8
1.0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Pira International Ltd calculations from Internetworldstats.com (www.Internetworldstats.com); OECD (broadband penetration)
PRINT MARKET TRENDS The French print market was valued at €18.1 billion (US$22.6 billion) in 2005, projected to grow by 2.5% in absolute terms in 2006 and by 1% in real terms, excluding the impact of inflation. During the period 2001-2006, the market grew at an average annual rate of 2.4% in absolute terms and by 0.8%% in real terms.
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Table 3 France: Print Market Trends, 2001-2006
€ million, current prices € million, constant 2005 prices US$ million, current prices
2001
2005
2006p
16,502.9 17,599.8 $14,780.3
18,137.3 18,137.3 $22,594.6
18,598.2 18,311.6 $22,222.8
% change 20052006p 2.5 1.0 -1.6
CAGR (%) 20012006p 2.4 0.8 8.5
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Flexo represents the single largest segment of the French market across print processes, with flexo printing output valued at €4.13 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 2% in absolute terms in 2006. Heatset web offset is the single largest component of offset litho printing with output at €3.34 billion ahead of sheetfed at €3.31 billion, with coldset web offset losing market share. The fastest growing areas of the market are Electrophotography and inkjet at €1.68 billion and €656 million respectively in 2005, with letterpress and particularly screen losing market share.
Table 4 France: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (€ millions, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
9,059.8 3,126.7 5,933.1 2,879.9 3,053.2 1,608.1 3,838.8 545.0 51.0 598.2 379.8 422.1 16,502.9
9,464.9 3,316.6 6,148.3 2,803.4 3,344.9 1,594.5 4,128.9 546.1 42.2 1,681.3 656.0 23.5 18,137.3
9,681.0 3,398.1 6,282.9 2,844.5 3,438.4 1,618.1 4,217.6 507.0 41.7 1,767.8 722.8 42.1 18,598.2
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
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% change 2005-2006p 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.5 2.8 1.5 2.1 -7.2 -1.1 5.1 10.2 79.5 2.5
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 1.3 1.7 1.2 -0.2 2.4 0.1 1.9 -1.4 -3.9 24.2 13.7 -36.9 2.4
Table 5 France: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
$8,114.2 2,800.4 5,313.8 2,579.3 2,734.5 1,440.3 3,438.2 488.1 45.7 535.8 340.2 378.1 $14,780.3
$11,790.9 4,131.6 7,659.3 3,492.4 4,166.9 1,986.4 5,143.6 680.3 52.5 2,094.5 817.2 29.2 $22,594.6
$11,567.8 4,060.4 7,507.4 3,398.9 4,108.5 1,933.5 5,039.5 605.8 49.8 2,112.4 863.7 50.4 $22,222.8
% change 2005-2006p -1.9 -1.7 -2.0 -2.7 -1.4 -2.7 -2.0 -11.0 -5.2 0.9 5.7 72.2 -1.6
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 7.3 7.7 7.2 5.7 8.5 6.1 7.9 4.4 1.8 31.6 20.5 -33.2 8.5
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd Across end-use areas, packaging represents the single largest product sector with sales of €5.77 billion in 2005, projected to grow by almost 4% in 2006. Other key sectors include magazines (€1.38 billion) and catalogs (€1.11 billion), with all areas showing growth with the exception of business forms.
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Table 6 France: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (€ millions, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p 770.2 1,121.7 102.0 1,380.1 733.2 1,082.3 1,058.4
% change 20052006p 1.6 1.2 0.4 2.0 1.0 2.8 1.7
CAGR (%) 20012006p 1.5 0.5 -0.9 2.9 0.5 4.8 3.4
715.3 1,092.5 106.8 1,197.1 716.7 856.5 895.7
757.8 1,108.3 101.5 1,352.7 725.7 1,052.7 1,041.0
281.4 71.0 342.6 156.9 456.9 5,679.1 2,695.1 1,042.9 1,941.1 540.2 3,394.1 16,502.9
350.9 84.8 394.8 115.4 485.8 5,770.3 2,645.7 1,100.4 2,024.2 648.6 4,147.0 18,137.3
361.8 86.7 400.6 108.5 493.6 5,988.2 2,660.2 1,121.9 2,206.1 680.5 4,230.5 18,598.2
3.1 2.2 1.5 -6.0 1.6 3.8 0.5 2.0 9.0 4.9 2.0 2.5
5.2 4.1 3.2 -7.1 1.6 1.1 -0.3 1.5 2.6 4.7 4.5 2.4
5,679.1 2,769.3 2,909.9
5,770.3 2,878.3 2,892.0
5,988.2 3,037.5 2,950.7
3.8 5.5 2.0
1.1 1.9 0.3
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 7 France: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p $920.2 1,340.3 121.8 1,649.0 876.0 1,293.3 1,264.7
% change 20052006p -2.5 -2.9 -3.7 -2.1 -3.1 -1.4 -2.5
CAGR (%) 20012006p 7.5 6.5 5.0 9.0 6.4 11.0 9.5
$640.7 978.5 95.7 1,072.1 641.9 767.1 802.2
$944.1 1,380.7 126.5 1,685.1 904.0 1,311.4 1,296.9
252.0 63.6 306.8 140.6 409.2 5,086.4 2,413.8 934.0 1,738.5 483.8 3,039.9 $14,780.3
437.1 105.6 491.8 143.7 605.2 7,188.4 3,295.9 1,370.8 2,521.7 808.0 5,166.1 $22,594.6
432.3 103.6 478.7 129.6 589.8 7,155.3 3,178.7 1,340.6 2,636.0 813.1 5,055.0 $22,222.8
-1.1 -1.9 -2.7 -9.8 -2.5 -0.5 -3.6 -2.2 4.5 0.6 -2.2 -1.6
11.4 10.3 9.3 -1.6 7.6 7.1 5.7 7.5 8.7 10.9 10.7 8.5
$5,086.4 2,480.2 2,606.1
$7,188.4 3,585.7 3,602.7
$7,155.3 3,629.5 3,525.8
-0.5 1.2 -2.1
7.1 7.9 6.2
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
MACHINERY, INK, CONSUMABLES AND SUBSTRATES Given the speed of product development and the rapid pace of technology transfer, most of the key developments for printing presses and processes over the next five years will be seen in all of the main regions of the world, despite the fact that the rate of adoption varies between developed and developing regions.
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Table 8 France: Printing Machinery (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
173.5 79.3 90.8 37.7 120.2 27.6 2.3 68.5 53.0 9.7 62.3
% change 2005-06 -3.3 -3.3 -0.5 -5.1 6.9 -16.5 -11.1 12.9 12.3 65.7 3.5
2.5 59.8 59.3 784.2
-17.2 4.6 3.1 1.6
2006
165.5 74.7 91.2 35.5 117.1 16.7 1.1 86.1 84.2 9.4 65.6
% change 200611 -4.6 -5.8 0.5 -5.7 -2.6 -39.6 -52.0 25.7 58.8 -3.6 5.2
1.6 63.9 62.2 809.3
-34.9 6.9 5.0 3.2
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 9 France: Printing Machinery (€ millions, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
138.7 63.4 72.6 30.1 96.1 22.1 1.8 54.8 42.4 7.8 49.9
% change 2005-06 -3.6 -3.7 -0.9 -5.5 6.5 -16.8 -11.4 12.5 11.9 65.1 3.1
2.0 47.9 47.4 627.2
-17.5 4.2 2.7 1.2
2006
132.4 59.7 73.0 28.4 93.6 13.3 0.9 68.9 67.4 7.5 52.4
% change 200611 -4.6 -5.8 0.5 -5.7 -2.6 -39.6 -52.0 25.7 58.8 -3.6 5.2
1.3 51.1 49.8 647.3
-34.9 6.9 5.0 3.2
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 10 France: Printing Consumables (US$ million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
38.3
% change 2005-06 -7.9
141.2 92.7 48.5 8.5 28.9 216.9
31.8 34.3 27.2 19.6 6.4 18.5
2006
2011 25.1
% change 2006-11 -34.4
198.9 149.8 49.1 9.2 29.9 263.1
40.8 61.6 1.2 8.0 3.4 21.3
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 11 France: Printing Consumables (€ millions, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
30.6
% change 2005-06 -8.2
113.0 74.2 38.8 6.8 23.1 173.5
31.3 33.8 26.7 19.2 6.0 18.1
2006
2011 20.1
% change 2006-11 -34.4
159.1 119.8 39.3 7.3 23.9 210.4
40.8 61.6 1.2 8.0 3.4 21.3
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 12 France: Printing Inks (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 146.8 122.9 148.6 70.2 182.5 21.9 1.8 84.7 35.4 1.1 816.0
% change 2005-06 5.3 4.3 5.7 4.3 5.0 -4.6 1.6 8.1 16.2 3.8 5.5
2011 161.6 122.9 169.4 71.5 203.0 20.6 1.5 253.4 65.4 1.3 1,070.7
Source: Pira International Ltd
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% change 200611 10.0 0.0 14.0 1.9 11.2 -5.8 -17.2 199.2 84.7 16.8 31.2
Table 13 France: Printing Inks (€ millions, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 117.5 98.3 118.9 56.1 146.0 17.5 1.4 67.7 28.3 0.9 652.7
% change 2005-06 5.0 3.9 5.3 4.0 4.6 -4.9 1.3 7.7 15.8 3.5 5.1
2011 129.2 98.3 135.5 57.2 162.4 16.5 1.2 202.7 52.3 1.1 856.4
% change 200611 10.0 0.0 14.0 1.9 11.2 -5.8 -17.2 199.2 84.7 16.8 31.2
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 14 France: Printing Substrates (US$ million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
426.6 804.0 1,160.7 759.9 706.5
% change 2005-06 3.5 5.9 2.7 5.6 0.4
3,092.0 281.5 1,344.4 690.4 1,798.2 11,064.1
2006
488.9 1,011.3 1,291.8 943.3 719.1
% change 2006-11 14.6 25.8 11.3 24.1 1.8
1.2 4.5 2.7 2.7
3,403.4 335.1 1,573.7 808.1
10.1 19.0 17.1 17.1
4.5 2.9
2,140.6 12,715.2
19.0 14.9
Source: Pira International Ltd
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2011
Table 15 France: Printing Substrates (€ millions, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
341.2 643.1 928.4 607.8 565.1
% change 2005-06 3.1 5.5 2.3 5.2 0.1
2,473.2 225.2 1,075.3 552.2 1,438.4 8,849.8
2006
391.1 808.9 1,033.3 754.5 575.2
% change 2006-11 14.6 25.8 11.3 24.1 1.8
0.8 4.1 2.4 2.4
2,722.3 268.0 1,258.7 646.4
10.1 19.0 17.1 17.1
4.1 2.5
1,712.2 10,170.5
19.0 14.9
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
For more comprehensive information about the global printing industry, please refer to the three PRIMIR reports “World Wide Market for Print” (Phase I, Phase II and Final). Visit http://www.primir.org/past_primir_studies.html for descriptions, tables of contents, and ordering information.
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1899 Preston White Drive, Reston, Virginia 20191 (703) 264-7200 © PRIMIR/NPES 2008
INTRODUCTION In today’s global business, print faces constant change and multinational challenges. In order to react intelligently and be proactive printing industry business leaders urgently need worldwide data to reference when making internationally-based business decisions. PRIMIR recently released a series of three reports on the “World Wide Market for Print.” Pira International was commissioned to investigate the key global print markets. This study identified 51 country markets that make up 99% of the global commercial printing industry. The series of reports detail social and economic climate in each region, demographic profiles, advertising trends, internet usage/adoption, print markets and applications, print process share, and market sizing for presses, equipment, consumables and paper. Forecasts are provided through 2011. The report that follows is a summary of data and information from all three reports pertaining to this specific country. Note: Unless otherwise noted, the data is presented in U.S. Dollars, taking into account forecast rates for GDP growth and inflation, constant 2006 exchange rates have been applied. The final report includes a database where statistics are provided for both current and constant U.S. Dollars as well as in local currency (both current and constant).
FRANCE - OVERVIEW France is in the southwest of Europe, bordering on Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, Italy and Spain and with coastlines on the North Sea, the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. With an area of 543,965 square kilometers (210,026 square miles) France is more than twice the size of the UK, albeit with a very similar population at 60.7 million, some 75% of whom are urban-dwelling, with Greater Paris the only major conurbation.
Literacy levels compare favorably with other developed economies at 99%, with 99% of the population completing primary level education and 94% completing secondary level education in 2003. Life expectancy is 75.8 years for men and 83.0 years for women. Overall GDP for 2006 is projected at US$2.09 billion, with GDP per capita at US$34,472.
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France is a republic with a written constitution dating back to 1958. It has an elected president, who is the chief of state (five-year term). The president’s responsibilities include naming the prime minister, presiding over the cabinet and commanding the armed forces. In addition, the president may put issues to a national referendum, dissolve the National Assembly and assume full executive power in certain emergency situations. The prime minister is the head of government and leader of the cabinet, which is made up of ministers, ministers delegate and secretaries of state. Legislative power lies with the bicameral parliament, made up of the National Assembly (577 seats) and the Senate (319 seats). Jacques Chirac of the centre-right coalition (RPR) has been the president of France since 1995; the current Prime Minister is Dominique de Villepin, the leader of the Socialist party, which has been in office since 1997.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS The population of France is estimated at 60.7 million. Population projections over the coming years show an expected increase in the populace of approximately three million in the next 45 years, taking the number of French inhabitants up to 63.1 million by 2050. While a sizeable increase, this is not so great as projected in other countries such as the UK.
In common with other western countries, France has an aging population. The median age of the population today is 39.3 years and this is forecast to increase to 45.5 by 2050; 21.1% of the population is currently over the age of 60 and this is forecast to increase to 33% by 2050.
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Figure 1 France: Long-term Demographic Trends by Age Group, 2000-2050 0-14
15-64
65+
Total population
70
64,000 63,407 63,116
60
% population
62,000
65.0 60.9
40
61,000
57.2 27.1
30
60,000
22.6 20
18.7
59,278
16.5
59,000
15.7
16.3
10
Total population ('000s)
50
63,000
58,000
0
57,000 2000
2025
2050
Source: United Nations
ECONOMIC TRENDS Due to its extensive arable area, rich soil and varied climate, France has developed a very strong agricultural sector. It is the world’s second largest exporter of agricultural goods after the USA, its main exports being wheat, pork, beef, poultry, wine and dairy products. Despite its lack of mineral reserves, France is also a major manufacturer, including heavy industry, food processing, motor vehicles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, fashion and perfume. It also has a strong services sector, with tourism an important source of employment and revenue. These facts, combined with its highly skilled workforce, have contributed to place France as the fifth largest industrialized economy in the Western world.
In 2006 GDP in France is projected to be US$2.09 billion, with GDP growth standing at 2%, up from 1.4% in 2005 and forecast to rise to 2.1% in 2007. Inflation levels are under control, standing at 1.3% in 2005 and projected to rise to 1.5% in 2006 and 1.6% in 2007.
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Pension and healthcare reforms as well as a greater flexibility in the labor market in recent years have helped to achieve greater efficiency in the economy. The French government has focused on measures to create jobs and promote investment and domestic growth. However, more reforms will be needed in order to really tackle France’s unemployment problem and help the economy adapt so as to be able to benefit from increased global demand. In addition, measures will be needed to address the issue of France’s aging population, which in future years will put an even greater burden on the French welfare system.
In general, however, the economic outlook for France is favorable. The economy is likely to grow in line with budget forecasts in the short term and unemployment levels should fall if the appropriate measures are taken. The government deficit is under control and a continued withdrawal of the state from commercial activities should help stimulate growth and strengthen the labor market. Since 1999 monetary policy has been controlled by the Central Bank in Frankfurt and in 2002 the Euro replaced the franc as the currency of France.
Table 1 France: Key Economic Indicators, 2003-2007 Indicator Population ('000s) Exchange rate (=US$1) Purchasing power parity (=US$1) GDP (local currency, millions, current prices) GDP (local currency, millions, constant 2000 prices) GDP (current, US$ million) GDP, PPP (current, US$ million) GDP per capita (US$) GDP per capita, PPP (US$) GDP growth (%) GDP deflator (%) Consumer price index (2000=100) Imports (US$ million) Exports (US$ million)
2003 60,006 0.88 0.93 1,586,793 1,505,166
2004 60,250 0.80 0.92 1,645,278 1,536,774
2005 60,496 0.80 0.91 1,690,432 1,558,289
2006p 60,702 0.84 0.90 1,751,229 1,589,455
2007f 60,909 0.84 0.90 1,817,998 1,622,834
1,794,389 1,679,427 29,904 27,988 0.9 1.4 105.8 370,178 364,725
2,045,581 1,758,899 33,951 29,193 2.1 1.6 108.0 442,584 424,451
2,105,864 1,830,110 34,810 30,252 1.4 1.3 109.9 482,708 439,816
2,092,532 1,900,467 34,472 31,308 2.0 1.5 111.6 n/a n/a
2,172,532 1,988,171 35,668 32,641 2.1 1.6 113.4 n/a n/a
Note: p=projected; f=forecast Source: Pira International, Ltd calculations from the United Nations (population data), International Monetary Fund (economic data)
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THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT There were 85 daily newspapers in print in France in 2004, 24 of which are nationals and 61 regional/local titles. Total circulation was 7.9 million, down 5.8% from 2000. Many French newspapers have undergone changes in ownership in recent years, as the sector has struggled in the face of competition from the Internet. The top selling daily is Ouest France which has a circulation of 783,000, followed by Le Monde with a circulation of 381,000. In 2004, newspaper advertising revenue was US$2,906 million, the third highest in Europe after the UK and Germany.
In 2004 there were 4,498 magazine titles in France, an increase of 11% compared to 2000, with 30% of revenues derived from advertising and 70% from sales. There were approximately 14 major magazine publishers in 2004, but many hundreds of publishers in total. Revenue from magazine advertising was US$2.72 billion, while total print advertising expenditure in France was at US$12.2 billion the third highest in Europe, up 9% from 1995. Tobacco advertising is banned by law, advertising of OTC drugs is permitted and there are restrictions on advertising alcohol and on advertising to children.
Table 2 France: Advertising and Print Media Trends, 2000-2004 Advertising media
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
9,342.3 5,668.0 2,341.1 2,245.3 1,081.6 60.7 132.8
8,563.8 5,245.7 2,126.2 2,109.2 1,010.3 61.3 102.9
8,886.7 5,303.9 2,181.4 2,101.4 1,021.1 59.7 93.2
10,667.0 6,211.1 2,589.2 2,430.0 1,191.9 58.2 147.9
12,177.6 6,955.0 2,906.2 2,718.7 1,330.1 57.1 244.7
Newspaper trends Number of paid-for dailies Number of paid-for Sundays Circulation of paid-for dailies ('000s) Circulation of paid-for Sundays ('000s)
83 29 8,423 4,198
85 32 8,429 4,319
85 32 8,151 4,233
85 32 8,037 4,264
85 32 7,934 4,238
Magazine trends Number of consumer titles Number of business-to-business titles
2,836 1,201
3,000 1,191
2,797 1,136
2,930 1,200
3,281 1,217
Above-the-line advertising (media sales) Total advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper advertising expenditure (US$ million) Magazine advertising expenditure (US$ million) Outdoor advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print's share of advertising expenditure (%) Internet advertising expenditure (US$ million)
Source: World Advertising Trends, World Press Trends, World Magazine Trends
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In 2004, 12 national dailies and 31 regional dailies were available on-line, up 43% from 2000. In 2005 it was estimated that Internet penetration was at 43% in the population, up from 14% in 2000. There are an estimated 9.6 million broadband subscribers currently in France.
Figure 2 France: Trends in Internet Usage, 2000-2005 Internet users (%)
Broadband penetration (%)
45
43.3
40 34.7
% population
35 30
27.8
25
22.3
20 15
17.9 15.2
14.3 10.5
10 5.9
5
2.8
1.0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Pira International Ltd calculations from Internetworldstats.com (www.Internetworldstats.com); OECD (broadband penetration)
PRINT MARKET TRENDS The French print market was valued at €18.1 billion (US$22.6 billion) in 2005, projected to grow by 2.5% in absolute terms in 2006 and by 1% in real terms, excluding the impact of inflation. During the period 2001-2006, the market grew at an average annual rate of 2.4% in absolute terms and by 0.8%% in real terms.
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Table 3 France: Print Market Trends, 2001-2006
€ million, current prices € million, constant 2005 prices US$ million, current prices
2001
2005
2006p
16,502.9 17,599.8 $14,780.3
18,137.3 18,137.3 $22,594.6
18,598.2 18,311.6 $22,222.8
% change 20052006p 2.5 1.0 -1.6
CAGR (%) 20012006p 2.4 0.8 8.5
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Flexo represents the single largest segment of the French market across print processes, with flexo printing output valued at €4.13 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 2% in absolute terms in 2006. Heatset web offset is the single largest component of offset litho printing with output at €3.34 billion ahead of sheetfed at €3.31 billion, with coldset web offset losing market share. The fastest growing areas of the market are Electrophotography and inkjet at €1.68 billion and €656 million respectively in 2005, with letterpress and particularly screen losing market share.
Table 4 France: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (€ millions, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
9,059.8 3,126.7 5,933.1 2,879.9 3,053.2 1,608.1 3,838.8 545.0 51.0 598.2 379.8 422.1 16,502.9
9,464.9 3,316.6 6,148.3 2,803.4 3,344.9 1,594.5 4,128.9 546.1 42.2 1,681.3 656.0 23.5 18,137.3
9,681.0 3,398.1 6,282.9 2,844.5 3,438.4 1,618.1 4,217.6 507.0 41.7 1,767.8 722.8 42.1 18,598.2
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
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% change 2005-2006p 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.5 2.8 1.5 2.1 -7.2 -1.1 5.1 10.2 79.5 2.5
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 1.3 1.7 1.2 -0.2 2.4 0.1 1.9 -1.4 -3.9 24.2 13.7 -36.9 2.4
Table 5 France: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
$8,114.2 2,800.4 5,313.8 2,579.3 2,734.5 1,440.3 3,438.2 488.1 45.7 535.8 340.2 378.1 $14,780.3
$11,790.9 4,131.6 7,659.3 3,492.4 4,166.9 1,986.4 5,143.6 680.3 52.5 2,094.5 817.2 29.2 $22,594.6
$11,567.8 4,060.4 7,507.4 3,398.9 4,108.5 1,933.5 5,039.5 605.8 49.8 2,112.4 863.7 50.4 $22,222.8
% change 2005-2006p -1.9 -1.7 -2.0 -2.7 -1.4 -2.7 -2.0 -11.0 -5.2 0.9 5.7 72.2 -1.6
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 7.3 7.7 7.2 5.7 8.5 6.1 7.9 4.4 1.8 31.6 20.5 -33.2 8.5
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd Across end-use areas, packaging represents the single largest product sector with sales of €5.77 billion in 2005, projected to grow by almost 4% in 2006. Other key sectors include magazines (€1.38 billion) and catalogs (€1.11 billion), with all areas showing growth with the exception of business forms.
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Table 6 France: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (€ millions, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p 770.2 1,121.7 102.0 1,380.1 733.2 1,082.3 1,058.4
% change 20052006p 1.6 1.2 0.4 2.0 1.0 2.8 1.7
CAGR (%) 20012006p 1.5 0.5 -0.9 2.9 0.5 4.8 3.4
715.3 1,092.5 106.8 1,197.1 716.7 856.5 895.7
757.8 1,108.3 101.5 1,352.7 725.7 1,052.7 1,041.0
281.4 71.0 342.6 156.9 456.9 5,679.1 2,695.1 1,042.9 1,941.1 540.2 3,394.1 16,502.9
350.9 84.8 394.8 115.4 485.8 5,770.3 2,645.7 1,100.4 2,024.2 648.6 4,147.0 18,137.3
361.8 86.7 400.6 108.5 493.6 5,988.2 2,660.2 1,121.9 2,206.1 680.5 4,230.5 18,598.2
3.1 2.2 1.5 -6.0 1.6 3.8 0.5 2.0 9.0 4.9 2.0 2.5
5.2 4.1 3.2 -7.1 1.6 1.1 -0.3 1.5 2.6 4.7 4.5 2.4
5,679.1 2,769.3 2,909.9
5,770.3 2,878.3 2,892.0
5,988.2 3,037.5 2,950.7
3.8 5.5 2.0
1.1 1.9 0.3
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 7 France: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p $920.2 1,340.3 121.8 1,649.0 876.0 1,293.3 1,264.7
% change 20052006p -2.5 -2.9 -3.7 -2.1 -3.1 -1.4 -2.5
CAGR (%) 20012006p 7.5 6.5 5.0 9.0 6.4 11.0 9.5
$640.7 978.5 95.7 1,072.1 641.9 767.1 802.2
$944.1 1,380.7 126.5 1,685.1 904.0 1,311.4 1,296.9
252.0 63.6 306.8 140.6 409.2 5,086.4 2,413.8 934.0 1,738.5 483.8 3,039.9 $14,780.3
437.1 105.6 491.8 143.7 605.2 7,188.4 3,295.9 1,370.8 2,521.7 808.0 5,166.1 $22,594.6
432.3 103.6 478.7 129.6 589.8 7,155.3 3,178.7 1,340.6 2,636.0 813.1 5,055.0 $22,222.8
-1.1 -1.9 -2.7 -9.8 -2.5 -0.5 -3.6 -2.2 4.5 0.6 -2.2 -1.6
11.4 10.3 9.3 -1.6 7.6 7.1 5.7 7.5 8.7 10.9 10.7 8.5
$5,086.4 2,480.2 2,606.1
$7,188.4 3,585.7 3,602.7
$7,155.3 3,629.5 3,525.8
-0.5 1.2 -2.1
7.1 7.9 6.2
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
MACHINERY, INK, CONSUMABLES AND SUBSTRATES Given the speed of product development and the rapid pace of technology transfer, most of the key developments for printing presses and processes over the next five years will be seen in all of the main regions of the world, despite the fact that the rate of adoption varies between developed and developing regions.
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Table 8 France: Printing Machinery (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
173.5 79.3 90.8 37.7 120.2 27.6 2.3 68.5 53.0 9.7 62.3
% change 2005-06 -3.3 -3.3 -0.5 -5.1 6.9 -16.5 -11.1 12.9 12.3 65.7 3.5
2.5 59.8 59.3 784.2
-17.2 4.6 3.1 1.6
2006
165.5 74.7 91.2 35.5 117.1 16.7 1.1 86.1 84.2 9.4 65.6
% change 200611 -4.6 -5.8 0.5 -5.7 -2.6 -39.6 -52.0 25.7 58.8 -3.6 5.2
1.6 63.9 62.2 809.3
-34.9 6.9 5.0 3.2
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 9 France: Printing Machinery (€ millions, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
138.7 63.4 72.6 30.1 96.1 22.1 1.8 54.8 42.4 7.8 49.9
% change 2005-06 -3.6 -3.7 -0.9 -5.5 6.5 -16.8 -11.4 12.5 11.9 65.1 3.1
2.0 47.9 47.4 627.2
-17.5 4.2 2.7 1.2
2006
132.4 59.7 73.0 28.4 93.6 13.3 0.9 68.9 67.4 7.5 52.4
% change 200611 -4.6 -5.8 0.5 -5.7 -2.6 -39.6 -52.0 25.7 58.8 -3.6 5.2
1.3 51.1 49.8 647.3
-34.9 6.9 5.0 3.2
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 10 France: Printing Consumables (US$ million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
38.3
% change 2005-06 -7.9
141.2 92.7 48.5 8.5 28.9 216.9
31.8 34.3 27.2 19.6 6.4 18.5
2006
2011 25.1
% change 2006-11 -34.4
198.9 149.8 49.1 9.2 29.9 263.1
40.8 61.6 1.2 8.0 3.4 21.3
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 11 France: Printing Consumables (€ millions, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
30.6
% change 2005-06 -8.2
113.0 74.2 38.8 6.8 23.1 173.5
31.3 33.8 26.7 19.2 6.0 18.1
2006
2011 20.1
% change 2006-11 -34.4
159.1 119.8 39.3 7.3 23.9 210.4
40.8 61.6 1.2 8.0 3.4 21.3
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 12 France: Printing Inks (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 146.8 122.9 148.6 70.2 182.5 21.9 1.8 84.7 35.4 1.1 816.0
% change 2005-06 5.3 4.3 5.7 4.3 5.0 -4.6 1.6 8.1 16.2 3.8 5.5
2011 161.6 122.9 169.4 71.5 203.0 20.6 1.5 253.4 65.4 1.3 1,070.7
Source: Pira International Ltd
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% change 200611 10.0 0.0 14.0 1.9 11.2 -5.8 -17.2 199.2 84.7 16.8 31.2
Table 13 France: Printing Inks (€ millions, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 117.5 98.3 118.9 56.1 146.0 17.5 1.4 67.7 28.3 0.9 652.7
% change 2005-06 5.0 3.9 5.3 4.0 4.6 -4.9 1.3 7.7 15.8 3.5 5.1
2011 129.2 98.3 135.5 57.2 162.4 16.5 1.2 202.7 52.3 1.1 856.4
% change 200611 10.0 0.0 14.0 1.9 11.2 -5.8 -17.2 199.2 84.7 16.8 31.2
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 14 France: Printing Substrates (US$ million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
426.6 804.0 1,160.7 759.9 706.5
% change 2005-06 3.5 5.9 2.7 5.6 0.4
3,092.0 281.5 1,344.4 690.4 1,798.2 11,064.1
2006
488.9 1,011.3 1,291.8 943.3 719.1
% change 2006-11 14.6 25.8 11.3 24.1 1.8
1.2 4.5 2.7 2.7
3,403.4 335.1 1,573.7 808.1
10.1 19.0 17.1 17.1
4.5 2.9
2,140.6 12,715.2
19.0 14.9
Source: Pira International Ltd
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2011
Table 15 France: Printing Substrates (€ millions, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
341.2 643.1 928.4 607.8 565.1
% change 2005-06 3.1 5.5 2.3 5.2 0.1
2,473.2 225.2 1,075.3 552.2 1,438.4 8,849.8
2006
391.1 808.9 1,033.3 754.5 575.2
% change 2006-11 14.6 25.8 11.3 24.1 1.8
0.8 4.1 2.4 2.4
2,722.3 268.0 1,258.7 646.4
10.1 19.0 17.1 17.1
4.1 2.5
1,712.2 10,170.5
19.0 14.9
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
For more comprehensive information about the global printing industry, please refer to the three PRIMIR reports “World Wide Market for Print” (Phase I, Phase II and Final). Visit http://www.primir.org/past_primir_studies.html for descriptions, tables of contents, and ordering information.
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