GCC Equity Monitor
Global Research Monthly Update Equity - GCC June, 2011
GCC Equity Monitor ROE & P/BV GCC
GCC Country Performance
23%
2011e ROE
18% Oman UAE KSA
13% GCC
Kuwait
8%
0.5
1M (%)
3M (%)
12M (%)
P/E*
P/BV*
DY (%)
Bahrain
-4.2%
-6.8%
-8.3%
12.8
0.9
7.7%
Kuwait
-5.1%
-2.3%
1.8%
14.7
1.7
3.9%
Oman
-5.2%
1.9%
-0.5%
10.5
1.6
6.5%
Qatar
-1.2%
1.0%
18.5%
10.8
0.5
5.9%
Saudi Arabia
Qatar 3% 0.0
Country
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.4%
15.1%
13.6%
11.6
1.8
4.0%
UAE-Abu Dhabi
-2.0%
5.0%
5.2%
8.0
1.2
5.0%
UAE-Dubai
-4.5%
14.4%
2.2%
8.1
0.8
4.9%
2.5
2011e P/BV
Source: Global Research, Bloomberg, * 2011E
GCC PE & Earnings Grow th 30%
Top Fundamental Picks
Qatar
2011e Earnings Growth
25% GCC 20%
KSA
Drake & Scull International: (UAE), CMP: AED1.03, Target Price: AED1.26 DSI recently made its second acquisition in Saudi Arabia. It acquired 100% stake of “International Centre for Contracting Co. (ICC) ” for an enterprise value of SAR128mn (EV/Backlog of 0.16x). Along with that, DSI is already tendering for work in Egypt, Vietnam and Djibouti. Company has planned to setup new unit in India as well. We expect backlog growth of over 50% to translate into an earnings growth of 30.7% in 2011.
Kuwait
UAE
15% 10% 5% Oman 0% 6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Islamic Arab Insurance Company (SALAMA): (UAE), CMP: AED0.70, Target Price: AED1.06 Islamic Arab Insurance Co. known as Salama is a leader in providing Takaful and Re-Takaful insurance. The company has presence in UAE, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Egypt and Algeria. Despite challenging economic conditions, Salama maintained strong growth in gross written premiums underpinned by the company’s strong foothold and leading position in the Takaful market. We expect the company to report a CAGR of 8%, 7%, 16% and 29% in FY10-14E for Gross written premiums, Net premiums earned, Net underwriting income and Net income respectively.
16.0
2011e P/E
World & GCC Indices YTD 7.8% 3.1%
0.0%
-0.6% -1.0% -5.2%
-2.2%
-6.7%
-7.4%
-9.1%
-10.5%
Yanbu National Petrochemical Company (YANSAB): (KSA), CMP: SAR48.4, Target Price: SAR58.1 We believe the expected (i) improvement in capacity utilization and (ii) higher prices of related product prices will lead YANSAB sales revenue to increase at a CAGR of 18.9% during 2010-14. Such factors will also lead to improvement in the company’s gross margin, which is expected to reach to 42.8% in 2014 as compared to 37.3% in 2010. However, bottom line is expected to increase at a CAGR of 24.9% during 2010-14.
US
India
China
Egypt
Kuwait
Jordan
Bahrain
UAE-Abu Dhabi
KSA
UAE -Dubai
Oman
Qatar
-22.4%
So urce: Glo bal Research, B lo o mberg
Top Technical Picks Food Products Co (KSA): CMP: SAR23.70 The stock approached the critical resistance line at SAR26.00 (high of May 2009), at which it could hold the initial test. However, stubbornness to cross over there would allow for some near-term consolidation with attempts to go lower for a correction purpose. Meanwhile, the weekly and daily “RSI” indicators are looking overbought at present, which could also increase the probability of the price to turn negative but the medium-term and long-term pictures remains bullish. However, closing above SAR26.00 will promote the target levels at SAR32.00 and SAR39.20. Nearby support levels are located at SAR22.00 and SAR18.00.
Global Research [email protected] Tel.: (965) 22951270
Qatar Islamic Insurance Co. (Qatar): CMP: QAR56.80 Qatar Islamic Insurance’s stock remains in the positive territory buoyed its holding above both medium-term (11 weeks) and long-term (50 weeks) moving averages. Further evidence will occur once the price crosses over the recent high at SAR61.90, which in turn will confirm a continuation pattern and calls for another leg up towards SAR64.85 and SAR74.85. However, losing the support level at SAR48.00 would delay any bullish intention and allows the bears to take the ride.
Global Investment House www.globalinv.net
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by country Global Research - GCC Universe UAE Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Arkan Building Materials Company Dana Gas Emirates Telecommunications Corporation First Gulf Bank Fujairah Cement Industries Gulf Cement Company National Bank of Abu Dhabi Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co. Abu Dhabi National Energy Union National Bank Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Air Arabia Arabtec Holding PJSC Dubai Financial Market Drake & Scull International Emirates NBD SALAMA Aramex Dubai Islamic Bank Sharjah Islamic Bank Total Kuwait Mobile Telecommunications Company National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait Finance House Commercial Bank of Kuwait National Mobile Telecommunications Company Jazeera Airways Company Agility Burgan Bank Total Oman Oman Telecommunications Company Bank Muscat Bank Dhofar National Bank of Oman Raysut Cement Company Oman International Bank Oman Cement Company Ahli Bank Total
Bloomberg Ticker
Mkt. Cap USD mn
Stock Performance 1M 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
ADCB UH ARKAN UH DANA UH ETISALAT UH FGB UH Fcem kk GCEM kk NBAD UH RAKCC UH RAKCEC UH TAQA UH UNB UH ADIB UH AIRARABI UH ARTC UH DFM UH DSI UH EMIRATES UH SALAMA UH ARMX UH DIB UH NBS UH
3,810.8 676.6 1,150.0 22,170.8 7,146.7 84.0 289.4 8,595.3 121.2 388.5 2,084.6 2,432.4 2,002.2 898.3 549.5 2,700.8 610.7 5,734.8 250.4 749.4 2,161.4 607.5
-0.3% -10.7% -5.9% -0.5% -3.8% -3.8% -4.9% -2.2% -10.7% -5.4% -19.1% -0.6% -5.2% -4.6% -5.6% -9.5% -1.9% -5.3% -2.3% -0.5% -6.3% 3.4%
30.5% 21.4% 6.7% -2.4% 19.7% 19.7% -9.2% 21.9% 50.8% -7.8% -8.3% 24.8% 10.7% -1.8% 29.8% 2.5% 14.4% 31.8% 26.7% 21.3% 4.7% 8.5%
73.2% -11.3% -12.3% 3.4% 22.8% 22.8% -29.1% 32.7% 19.5% 41.7% 19.2% 30.9% 25.3% -8.6% -18.9% -22.0% 19.8% 46.1% 7.2% 34.3% 3.2% 9.7%
7.9 64.5 12.2 10.6 6.7 61.0 25.8 7.3 47.1 5.2 5.4 5.0 5.0 10.0 9.4 106.8 10.6 5.2 9.3 12.2 6.7 7.8 8.03
0.9 1.5 0.5 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.5 1.11
11.2% 2.4% 4.2% 19.2% 19.1% 0.5% 2.8% 20.0% 1.2% 11.2% 14.2% 17.0% 23.5% 6.0% 7.7% 1.2% 8.1% 13.0% 6.3% 12.2% 13.1% 6.7% 14.4%
1.0% 1.5% 2.8% 10.0% 2.7% 0.3% 2.5% 1.9% 1.2% 4.9% 1.4% 2.2% 1.9% 5.0% 2.5% 1.2% 4.1% 1.4% 2.6% 9.5% 1.4% 1.7% 2.2%
2.91 1.42 0.64 10.30 17.50 1.09 1.38 11.00 0.92 1.92 1.23 3.58 3.11 0.71 1.35 1.24 1.03 3.79 0.76 1.88 2.09 0.92
2.90 1.19 0.91 12.44 21.30 0.75 U/R 14.50 0.90 2.31 U/R 4.40 U/R 0.78 1.33 0.85 1.26 4.31 1.06 2.07 U/R U/R
-0.3% -16.2% 42.4% 20.8% 21.7% -31.2% U/R 31.8% -2.2% 20.3% U/R 22.9% U/R 10.3% -1.5% -31.5% 22.3% 13.7% 39.5% 10.1% U/R U/R
HOLD SELL STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY SELL U/R STRONG BUY HOLD STRONG BUY U/R STRONG BUY U/R BUY HOLD SELL STRONG BUY BUY STRONG BUY BUY U/R U/R
ZAIN KK NBK KK KFIN KK CBK KK NMTC KK JAZEERA KK AGLTY KK BURG KK
16,218.6 17,001.9 10,160.8 4,159.2 3,568.7 153.5 1,426.2 2,886.7
-13.3% -4.8% -3.7% -3.2% -3.0% 60.0% -11.8% -1.8%
-11.9% -2.7% -1.4% -1.7% 14.7% 57.4% 1.4% 15.7%
2.3% 25.1% 15.5% 23.6% 21.6% 33.3% -12.0% 82.9%
11.0 14.2 24.9 26.4 10.6 9.2 14.4 33.0 14.72
1.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.2 2.1 0.4 1.8 1.66
14.1% 15.4% 8.9% 9.1% 14.0% 25.9% 2.8% 5.5% 11.8%
9.9% 2.4% 0.9% 1.1% 7.5% 2.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.5%
1.04 1.20 1.04 0.90 1.96 0.19 0.38 0.54
1.00 1.17 1.06 0.87 2.35 0.21 U/R 0.48
-3.8% -2.5% 1.9% -3.3% 19.9% 9.4% U/R -11.1%
HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD U/R SELL
2,135.1 2,899.7 1,473.9 904.1 550.1 653.7 480.4 574.5
-1.6% -6.6% -4.5% 3.2% -3.5% -0.5% -5.3% -3.5%
3.4% 7.9% -4.4% 11.1% 6.0% 6.7% 9.1% 0.8%
-0.3% 10.2% -6.7% -0.1% -22.9% 1.5% -10.4% 20.3%
7.6 10.3 16.5 11.4 10.5 13.6 10.8 11.8 10.48
1.7 1.3 2.4 1.3 2.0 1.4 1.2 2.1 1.56
22.7% 13.1% 15.1% 11.3% 18.8% 10.5% 11.5% 18.3% 15.2%
15.5% 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 10.5% 1.5% 10.1% 2.4% 2.8%
1.10 0.72 0.62 0.32 1.06 0.26 0.56 0.28
1.23 U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R 0.60 U/R
12.2% U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R 7.3% U/R
BUY U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R HOLD U/R
OTEL OM BKMB OM BKDB OM NBOB OM RCCI OM OIBB OM OCOI OM ABOB OM
June - 2011
2
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by country (cont) Global Research - GCC Universe Qatar Qatar National Bank Industries Qatar Qatar Telecom Vodafone Qatar Qatar Islamic Bank The Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar Electricity & Water Company Doha Bank Qatar Insurance Company Al Rayan Bank Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company Qatar National Cement Company Total Saudi Arabia Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Al Rajhi Bank Saudi Telecom Company Samba Financial Group Saudi Electricity Company Riyad Bank The Saudi British Bank Banque Saudi Fransi Etihad Etisalat Company Arab National Bank Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company Almarai Company Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company Savola Group Company Saudi Hollandi Bank The Saudi Investment Bank Saudi International Petrochemichal Company Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company Tawuniya Qassim Cement Company Yamama Saudi Cement Company Yanbu Cement Company Eastern Province Cement Company Arabian Cement Co. Saudi Cement Company Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company Saudi Research and Marketing Group Bank Al Bilad Maaden Dar Alarkan Emaar Economic City Saudi Real Estate Co. (Akaria) Total Bahrain Bahrain Telecommunications Company
Bloomberg Ticker
QNBK QD IQCD QD QTEL QD VFQS QD QIBK QD CBQK QD QEWS QD DHBK QD QATI QD MARK QD QGRI QD QNCD QD
SABIC AB RJHI AB STC AB SAMBA AB SECO AB RIBL AB SABB AB BSFR AB EEC AB ARNB AB SAFCO AB AlMARAI AB YANSAB AB SAVOLA AB AAAL AB SIBC AB SIPCHEM AB SADAFCO AB TAWUNIYA AB QACCO AB YACCO AB YNCCO AB EACCO AB ARCCO AB SACCO AB ALHOKAIR AB RESEARCH AB ALBI AB MAADEN AB ALARKAN AB EMAAR AB SRECO AB
BATELCO BI
Mkt. Cap USD mn
Stock Performance 1M 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
24,105.9 20,993.5 7,491.2 1,831.7 5,093.6 4,906.0 4,064.1 2,923.1 1,671.6 4,747.2 518.6 1,550.6
1.1% -5.6% -1.6% -0.9% -2.5% -1.4% 0.4% -0.4% 0.4% -0.1% -3.0% 2.7%
15.7% 11.1% 31.2% 3.3% 6.5% 2.6% 29.1% -0.6% 12.3% 5.7% -0.6% 19.7%
50.9% 46.3% 25.6% -3.8% 18.4% 19.7% 50.9% 28.3% 37.8% 70.7% 18.7% 76.9%
12.5 8.4 9.8 na 11.6 10.6 12.8 8.7 8.8 12.0 14.4 12.1 10.79
2.3 2.7 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.4 3.3 1.8 1.7 2.2 0.7 2.5 2.02
23.5% 36.4% 13.9% -5.6% 17.5% 14.4% 27.0% 22.1% 19.2% 21.8% 5.2% 20.9% 21.1%
2.8% 25.9% 2.7% -4.7% 2.8% 2.6% 5.3% 2.6% 9.3% 3.7% 3.3% 17.4% 4.2%
138.00 139.00 155.00 7.89 78.50 72.20 148.00 51.50 81.90 23.05 42.20 115.00
U/R 165.96 177.56 7.78 U/R U/R U/R U/R 82.70 U/R 42.60 117.90
U/R 19.4% 14.6% -1.4% U/R U/R U/R U/R 1.0% U/R 0.9% 2.5%
U/R BUY BUY HOLD U/R U/R U/R U/R HOLD U/R HOLD HOLD
85,795.4 30,198.4 19,998.9 12,599.3 15,721.1 10,039.5 8,759.5 8,890.2 9,706.1 7,197.6 11,932.7 5,749.7 7,259.6 3,679.8 2,628.2 2,749.7 2,116.8 416.0 1,279.9 1,637.9 2,276.9 1,476.9 1,135.1 934.4 2,600.9 894.1 396.8 1,539.9 6,807.6 2,563.1 1,745.2 822.4
-3.8% -1.6% 3.3% -5.8% 2.5% -3.5% -3.7% -0.6% -2.8% -5.1% 0.1% 0.3% -7.4% -0.7% -2.3% -1.6% -0.7% 12.4% -3.4% 10.5% 8.6% 18.5% 7.6% 7.9% 13.3% -2.2% 3.6% 4.1% 0.0% -1.1% 9.2% 13.5%
17.1% 4.7% 4.5% 2.9% 12.0% 7.3% 18.4% 15.3% 12.3% 6.9% 10.6% 3.2% 16.6% 9.4% 6.8% 6.6% 13.1% 21.5% 6.3% 26.2% 31.8% 36.9% 16.7% 55.4% 35.5% 38.3% 20.5% 5.2% 25.5% 1.7% 19.4% 21.5%
24.8% 1.6% 12.8% -2.3% 39.2% -3.5% 2.6% 7.0% 9.6% 5.6% 58.6% 1.0% 25.4% -11.4% -9.7% 19.3% 13.9% 20.6% 22.4% 9.1% 46.8% 33.0% 28.0% 34.2% 57.7% 23.4% 3.1% -4.5% 60.5% -30.5% -11.0% 22.9%
10.4 14.3 9.0 10.1 24.4 12.3 15.0 10.7 7.6 12.0 12.6 14.6 9.7 14.7 9.7 11.0 13.7 11.5 7.6 12.4 12.7 13.2 12.6 12.5 13.9 9.2 16.4 15.5 53.5 6.6 na 31.2 11.60
1.7 3.9 1.3 1.7 1.1 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 5.4 3.2 3.1 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.2 2.1 2.2 3.2 2.6 2.0 2.0 1.3 2.8 2.3 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.80
17.5% 26.6% 14.9% 17.5% 4.7% 10.5% 14.1% 17.1% 27.9% 14.5% 46.2% 22.9% 35.1% 11.1% 14.7% 10.9% 9.2% 19.4% 31.8% 26.4% 20.8% 16.0% 15.9% 10.8% 20.4% 26.2% 5.8% 11.3% 2.5% 9.8% -1.4% 3.1% 16.1%
9.3% 4.1% 7.2% 2.5% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 13.9% 1.9% 39.7% 11.3% 11.7% 5.1% 1.8% 1.8% 4.7% 13.0% 7.3% 24.1% 18.4% 9.6% 14.3% 6.7% 15.1% 16.8% 4.1% 1.6% 1.4% 6.2% -1.1% 2.8% 4.5%
107.25 75.50 37.50 52.50 14.15 25.10 43.80 46.10 52.00 31.70 179.00 93.75 48.40 27.60 29.80 18.75 21.65 48.00 64.00 68.25 63.25 52.75 49.50 43.80 63.75 47.90 18.60 19.25 27.60 8.90 7.70 25.70
120.11 76.98 41.90 55.36 13.88 25.70 36.00 43.10 68.50 36.60 173.64 98.0 58.10 34.91 27.11 20.50 27.35 42.68 113.00 60.90 56.10 42.60 39.40 33.80 47.30 46.60 15.80 16.80 27.46 11.37 7.20 30.40
12.0% 2.0% 11.7% 5.4% -1.9% 2.4% -17.8% -6.5% 31.7% 15.5% -3.0% 4.5% 20.0% 26.5% -9.0% 9.3% 26.3% -11.1% U/R -10.8% -11.3% -19.2% -20.4% -22.8% -25.8% -2.7% -15.1% -12.7% -0.5% 27.8% -6.5% 18.3%
BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD SELL HOLD STRONG BUY BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY SELL U/R SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL HOLD SELL SELL HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD BUY
1,665.4
-9.9%
-7.6%
-17.9%
7.4
1.1
15.8%
12.6%
0.44
0.49
12.4%
BUY
* All price in local currency as of 31 May 2011 Source: Bloomberg & Global Research
June - 2011
3
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by sector Global Research - GCC Universe
Bloomberg Ticker
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
Cement & Building Material Arkan Building Materials Company Fujairah Cement Industries Gulf Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co. Raysut Cement Company Oman Cement Company Qatar National Cement Company Qassim Cement Company Yamama Saudi Cement Company Yanbu Cement Company Eastern Province Cement Company Arabian Cement Co. Saudi Cement Company Total
ARKAN UH FCEM KK GCEM UH RAKCC UH RAKCEC UH RCCI OM OCOI OM QNCD QD QACCO AB YACCO AB YNCCO AB EACCO AB ARCCO AB SACCO AB
676.6 84.0 289.4 121.2 388.5 550.1 480.4 1,550.6 1,637.9 2,276.9 1,476.9 1,135.1 934.4 2,600.9
-10.7% -3.8% -4.9% -10.7% -5.4% -3.5% -5.3% 2.7% 10.5% 8.6% 18.5% 7.6% 7.9% 13.3%
21.4% 19.7% -9.2% 50.8% -7.8% 6.0% 9.1% 19.7% 26.2% 31.8% 36.9% 16.7% 55.4% 35.5%
-11.3% 22.8% -29.1% 19.5% 41.7% -22.9% -10.4% 76.9% 9.1% 46.8% 33.0% 28.0% 34.2% 57.7%
64.5 61.0 25.8 47.1 5.2 10.5 10.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.2 12.6 12.5 13.9 12.91
1.5 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 2.0 1.2 2.5 3.2 2.6 2.0 2.0 1.3 2.8 1.94
2.4% 0.5% 2.8% 1.2% 11.2% 18.8% 11.5% 20.9% 26.4% 20.8% 16.0% 15.9% 10.8% 20.4% 14.7%
1.5% 0.3% 2.5% 1.2% 4.9% 10.5% 10.1% 17.4% 24.1% 18.4% 9.6% 14.3% 6.7% 15.1% 10.2%
1.42 1.09 1.38 0.92 1.92 1.06 0.56 115.00 68.25 63.25 52.75 49.50 43.80 63.75
1.19 0.75 U/R 0.90 2.31 U/R 0.60 117.90 60.90 56.10 42.60 39.40 33.80 47.30
-16.2% -31.2% U/R -2.2% 20.3% U/R 7.3% 2.5% -10.8% -11.3% -19.2% -20.4% -22.8% -25.8%
SELL SELL U/R HOLD STRONG BUY U/R HOLD HOLD SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL
Insurance SALAMA Qatar Insurance Company Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company Tawuniya Total
SALAMA UH QATI QD QGRI QD TAWUNIYA AB
250.4 1,671.6 518.6 1,279.9
-2.3% 0.4% -3.0% -3.4%
26.7% 12.3% -0.6% 6.3%
7.2% 37.8% 18.7% 22.4%
9.3 8.8 14.4 7.6 8.83
0.6 1.7 0.7 2.2 1.47
6.3% 19.2% 5.2% 31.8% 16.0%
2.6% 9.3% 3.3% 7.3% 6.5%
0.76 81.90 42.20 64.00
1.06 82.70 42.60 113.00
39.5% 1.0% 0.9% U/R
STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD U/R
Telecom Emirates Telecommunications Corporation Bahrain Telecommunications Company Mobile Telecommunications Company National Mobile Telecommunications Company Oman Telecommunications Company Qatar Telecom Vodafone Qatar Saudi Telecom Company Etihad Etisalat Company Total
ETISALAT UH BATELCO BI ZAIN KK NMTC KK OTEL OM QTEL QD VFQS QD STC AB EEC AB
22,170.8 1,665.4 16,218.6 3,568.7 2,135.1 7,491.2 1,831.7 19,998.9 9,706.1
-0.5% -9.9% -13.3% -3.0% -1.6% -1.6% -0.9% 3.3% -2.8%
-2.4% -7.6% -11.9% 14.7% 3.4% 31.2% 3.3% 4.5% 12.3%
3.4% -17.9% 0.0% 21.6% -0.3% 25.6% -3.8% 12.8% 9.6%
10.6 7.4 11.0 10.6 7.6 9.8 na 9.0 7.6 9.89
2.0 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.68
19.2% 15.8% 14.1% 14.0% 22.7% 13.9% -5.6% 14.9% 27.9% 16.1%
10.0% 12.6% 9.9% 7.5% 15.5% 2.7% -4.7% 7.2% 13.9% 7.5%
10.30 0.44 1.04 1.96 1.10 155.00 7.89 37.50 52.00
12.44 0.49 1.00 2.35 1.23 177.56 7.78 41.90 68.50
20.8% 12.4% -3.8% 19.9% 12.2% 14.6% -1.4% 11.7% 31.7%
STRONG BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY STRONG BUY
Petrochemicals Dana Gas Industries Qatar Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company Saudi International Petrochemichal Company Total
DANA UH IQCD QD SABIC AB SAFCO AB YANSAB AB SIPCHEM AB
1,150.0 20,993.5 85,795.4 11,932.7 7,259.6 2,116.8
-5.9% -5.6% -3.8% 0.1% -7.4% -0.7%
6.7% 11.1% 17.1% 10.6% 16.6% 13.1%
-12.3% 46.3% 24.8% 58.6% 25.4% 13.9%
12.2 8.4 10.4 12.6 9.7 13.7 10.15
0.5 2.7 1.7 5.4 3.1 1.2 2.23
4.2% 36.4% 17.5% 46.2% 35.1% 9.2% 20.4%
2.8% 25.9% 9.3% 39.7% 11.7% 4.7% 11.2%
0.64 139.00 107.25 179.00 48.40 21.65
0.91 165.96 120.11 173.64 58.10 27.35
42.4% 19.4% 12.0% -3.0% 20.0% 26.3%
STRONG BUY BUY BUY HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY
June - 2011
4
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by sector (cont) Global Research - GCC Universe Banks Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank First Gulf Bank National Bank of Abu Dhabi Union National Bank Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Emirates NBD Dubai Islamic Bank Sharjah Islamic Bank National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait Finance House Commercial Bank of Kuwait Burgan Bank Bank Muscat Bank Dhofar National Bank of Oman Ahli Bank Qatar National Bank Qatar Islamic Bank The Commercial Bank of Qatar Doha Bank Al Rayan Bank Al Rajhi Bank Samba Financial Group Riyad Bank The Saudi British Bank Banque Saudi Fransi Arab National Bank Saudi Hollandi Bank The Saudi Investment Bank Bank Al Bilad Total
Bloomberg Ticker
ADCB UH FGB UH NBAD UH UNB UH ADIB UH EMIRATES UH DIB UH NBS UH NBK KK KFIN KK CBK KK BURG KK BKMB OM BKDB OM NBOB OM ABOB OM QNBK QD QIBK QD CBQK QD DHBK QD MARK QD RJHI AB SAMBA AB RIBL AB SABB AB BSFR AB ARNB AB AAAL AB SIBC AB ALBI AB
Utilities Abu Dhabi National Energy Qatar Electricity & Water Company Saudi Electricity Company Total
TAQA UH QEWS QD SECO AB
Transportation and Logistics Aramex Air Arabia Jazeera Airways Company Agility Total
ARMX UH AIRARABI UH JAZEERA KK AGLTY KK
Stock Performance 3M 12M
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
3,810.8 7,146.7 8,595.3 2,432.4 2,002.2 5,734.8 2,161.4 607.5 17,001.9 10,160.8 4,159.2 2,886.7 2,899.7 1,473.9 904.1 574.5 24,105.9 5,093.6 4,906.0 2,923.1 4,747.2 30,198.4 12,599.3 10,039.5 8,759.5 8,890.2 7,197.6 2,628.2 2,749.7 1,539.9
-0.3% -3.8% -2.2% -0.6% -5.2% -5.3% -6.3% 3.4% -4.8% -3.7% -3.2% -1.8% -6.6% -4.5% 3.2% -3.5% 1.1% -2.5% -1.4% -0.4% -0.1% -1.6% -5.8% -3.5% -3.7% -0.6% -5.1% -2.3% -1.6% 4.1%
30.5% 19.7% 21.9% 24.8% 10.7% 31.8% 4.7% 8.5% -2.7% -1.4% -1.7% 15.7% 7.9% -4.4% 11.1% 0.8% 15.7% 6.5% 2.6% -0.6% 5.7% 4.7% 2.9% 7.3% 18.4% 15.3% 6.9% 6.8% 6.6% 5.2%
73.2% 22.8% 32.7% 30.9% 25.3% 46.1% 3.2% 9.7% 25.1% 15.5% 23.6% 82.9% 10.2% -6.7% -0.1% 20.3% 50.9% 18.4% 19.7% 28.3% 70.7% 1.6% -2.3% -3.5% 2.6% 7.0% 5.6% -9.7% 19.3% -4.5%
7.9 6.7 7.3 5.0 5.0 5.2 6.7 7.8 14.2 24.9 26.4 33.0 10.3 16.5 11.4 11.8 12.5 11.6 10.6 8.7 12.0 14.3 10.1 12.3 15.0 10.7 12.0 9.7 11.0 15.5 11.15
0.9 1.2 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.3 2.4 1.3 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.8 2.2 3.9 1.7 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.91
11.2% 19.1% 20.0% 17.0% 23.5% 13.0% 13.1% 6.7% 15.4% 8.9% 9.1% 5.5% 13.1% 15.1% 11.3% 18.3% 23.5% 17.5% 14.4% 22.1% 21.8% 26.6% 17.5% 10.5% 14.1% 17.1% 14.5% 14.7% 10.9% 11.3% 16.2%
1.0% 2.7% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.6% 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 3.7% 4.1% 2.5% 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 2.1%
2.91 17.50 11.00 3.58 3.11 3.79 2.09 0.92 1.20 1.04 0.90 0.54 0.72 0.62 0.32 0.28 138.00 78.50 72.20 51.50 23.05 75.50 52.50 25.10 43.80 46.10 31.70 29.80 18.75 19.25
2.90 21.30 14.50 4.40 U/R 4.31 U/R U/R 1.17 1.06 0.87 0.48 U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R 76.98 55.36 25.70 36.00 43.10 36.60 27.11 20.50 16.80
-0.3% 21.7% 31.8% 22.9% U/R 13.7% U/R U/R -2.5% 1.9% -3.3% -11.1% U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R 2.0% 5.4% 2.4% -17.8% -6.5% 15.5% -9.0% 9.3% -12.7%
HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY U/R BUY U/R U/R HOLD HOLD HOLD SELL U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R HOLD HOLD HOLD SELL HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD SELL
2,084.6 4,064.1 15,721.1
-19.1% 0.4% 2.5%
-8.3% 29.1% 12.0%
19.2% 50.9% 39.2%
5.4 12.8 24.4 16.22
0.7 3.3 1.1 1.27
14.2% 27.0% 4.7% 7.6%
1.4% 5.3% 1.2% 1.6%
1.23 148.00 14.15
U/R U/R 13.88
U/R U/R -1.9%
U/R U/R HOLD
749.4 898.3 153.5 1,426.2
-0.5% -4.6% 60.0% -11.8%
21.3% -1.8% 57.4% 1.4%
34.3% -8.6% 33.3% -12.0%
12.2 10.0 9.2 14.4 12.10
1.5 0.6 2.1 0.4 0.58
12.2% 6.0% 25.9% 2.8% 4.8%
9.5% 5.0% 2.6% 1.7% 3.0%
1.88 0.71 0.19 0.38
2.07 0.78 0.21 U/R
10.1% 10.3% 9.4% U/R
BUY BUY HOLD U/R
June - 2011
5
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by sector Global Research - GCC Universe
Bloomberg Ticker
Construction Contractors Arabtec Holding Drake & Scull International Total
ARTC UH DSI UH
Food & Agriculture Almarai Company Savola Group Company Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company Total
AlMARAI AB SAVOLA AB SADAFCO AB
Real Estate Dar Alarkan Emaar Economic City Saudi Real Estate Co. (Akaria) Total Others Dubai Financial Market Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company Maaden Saudi Research and Marketing Group Total
ALARKAN AB EMAAR AB SRECO AB
DFM UH ALHOKAIR AB MAADEN AB RESEARCH AB
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
549.5 610.7
-5.6% -1.9%
29.8% 14.4%
-18.9% 19.8%
9.4 10.6 10.01
0.7 0.8 0.81
7.7% 8.1% 7.9%
2.5% 4.1% 3.1%
1.35 1.03
1.33 1.26
-1.5% 22.3%
HOLD STRONG BUY
5,749.7 3,679.8 416.0
0.3% -0.7% 12.4%
3.2% 9.4% 21.5%
1.0% -11.4% 20.6%
14.6 14.7 11.5 14.43
3.2 1.6 2.1 2.45
22.9% 11.1% 19.4% 16.3%
11.3% 5.1% 13.0% 7.9%
93.75 27.60 48.00
98.00 34.91 42.68
4.5% 26.5% -11.1%
HOLD STRONG BUY SELL
2,563.1 1,745.2 822.4
-1.1% 9.2% 13.5%
1.7% 19.4% 21.5%
-30.5% -11.0% 22.9%
6.6 na 31.2 13.15
0.6 0.9 1.0 0.78
9.8% -1.4% 3.1% 5.7%
6.2% -1.1% 2.8% 4.0%
8.90 7.70 25.70
11.37 7.20 30.40
27.8% -6.5% 18.3%
STRONG BUY HOLD BUY
2,700.8 894.1 6,807.6 396.8
-9.5% -2.2% 0.0% 3.6%
2.5% 38.3% 25.5% 20.5%
-22.0% 23.4% 60.5% 3.1%
106.8 9.2 53.5 16.4 39.41
1.3 2.3 1.3 0.9 1.38
1.2% 26.2% 2.5% 5.8% 3.5%
1.2% 16.8% 1.4% 4.1% 2.2%
1.24 47.90 27.60 18.60
0.85 46.60 27.46 15.80
-31.5% -2.7% -0.5% -15.1%
SELL HOLD HOLD SELL
* All price in local currency as of 31 May 2011 Source: Bloomberg & Global Research
June - 2011
6
June - 2011 10%
5% 5%
Dividend Yield Top 10 Gainers in 1 month
15.0% 65%
12.0% 60%
55%
50%
9.0% 45%
40%
6.0% 35%
30%
25%
3.0% 20%
15%
10%
0.0%
5%
0% Jazeera Airways Company
15%
10%
Saudi Research and Marketing Group
15%
Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company
20%
Bank Al Bilad
40%
Qassim Cement Company
30%
Eastern Province Cement Company
45%
35%
Al Rajhi Bank
50%
40% Dubai Islamic Bank
Union National Bank
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company
Gulf Cement Company
Emirates NBD
Global Research - GCC
Arabian Cement Co.
45%
Qatar Electricity & Water Company
Return on Assets (ROA)
Yamama Saudi Cement Company
Air Arabia
0.1
-
Etihad Etisalat Company
0.2
1.00
Qassim Cement Company
0.3
2.00
Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company
0.4
3.00
Tawuniya
Attractive P/E x
Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company
0.5
4.00
Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co.
0.6
5.00
Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company
0.7
6.00
Saudi Cement Company
0.8
Sharjah Islamic Bank
Technical Overview
7.00
Industries Qatar
Dana Gas
Sharjah Islamic Bank
Oman Telecommunications Company
Etihad Etisalat Company
Bahrain Telecommunications Company
National Bank of Abu Dhabi
Dubai Islamic Bank
Abu Dhabi National Energy
Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co.
Emirates NBD
0.9
8.00
Yanbu Cement Company
0% Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company
Etihad Etisalat Company
Eastern Province Cement Company
Saudi Cement Company
Oman Telecommunications Company
Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company
Qatar National Cement Company
Yamama Saudi Cement Company
Qassim Cement Company
Industries Qatar
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
9.00
Jazeera Airways Company
Sharjah Islamic Bank
Qatar Insurance Company
Saudi Telecom Company
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
Oman Cement Company
The Commercial Bank of Qatar
Oman Telecommunications Company
Raysut Cement Company
Doha Bank
Air Arabia
Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company
GCC Equity Monitor
Charts Attractive P/BV x
Return on Equity (ROE)
25% 35%
30%
25%
20%
0%
Source: Glob al Research, Bloomb erg
7
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
Technical Overview: Bahrain Stock Exchange Bahrain All Share Index closed at 1,346.66 point. The index witnessed a noticeable drop since the end of March, eroding its medium-term (11 weeks) and long-term (50 weeks) moving averages. In addition, bears managed to cross below the critical support level at 1,360 point (low of July 2010). Given all these aspects, the bearish tone is more likely to continue but the slippage may not be so sharp due to the extreme oversold status of the “RSI” indicator. Nearby support levels are located at 1,330 point and 1,290 point. However, crossing over the tiny resistance line at 1,365 point would be a positive sign, which could in turn trigger 1,385 point and 1,407 point. Only above 1,432 point will confirm an end to the bearish move. Weekly “RSI” indicator is neutral to bearish at present. Strategy: Medium-term and long-term investors can only enter the market at above 1,385 point and 1,432 point, respectively. Bahrain All Share Index May 31, Index Name 2011 Weekly Q.BAX
Sector
Index
Reuters’ RIC
Last Trade (point)
1,346.66
MACD*
-13.568
RSI**
31.111
Moving Average (11 weeks) Moving Average (50 weeks)
EMA, Q.BAX, Last Trade(Last ), 11 05/06/11, 1,384.194 EMA, Q.BAX, Last Trade(Last ), 50 05/06/11, 1,432.750 Cndl, Q.BAX, Last Trade 05/06/11, 1,351.330, 1,353.190, 1,345.020, 1,346.660 BBand, Q.BAX, Last Trade(Last ), 20, Simple, 2.0 05/06/11, 1,480.132, 1,411.393, 1,342.654
Price BHD
1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500
1,477
1,450 1,400
1,360
1,385.00
1,350
1,330
1,300 .123
Vol, Q.BAX, Last Trade 05/06/11, 1.824M
1,432.00
Volume 30M
Support (1) ^
1,330.00
Support (2) ^
1,290.00
Resistance(1) ^^
1,385.00
Resistance(2) ^^
1,407.00
Trend Status
Bearish
.1234 MACD, Q.BAX, Last Trade(Last ), 12, 26, 9, Exponent ial 05/06/11, -20.616, -13.568
Value BHD .123
RSI, Q.BAX, Last Trade(Last ), 14, Wilder Smoothing 05/06/11, 31.111
Value BHD 30
Name of Index Kuwait Stock Exchange Price Index Saudi All Share Index QE Index Abu Dhabi Price Index Dubai Financial Market Index MSM 30 Index Bahrain All Share Index
.123 Apr
May Jun Q2 2009
Jul
Aug Sep Q3 2009
Oct
Nov Dec Q4 2009
Reuter' RIC
Close
Weekly RSI
6,378.20 6,735.98 8,375.19 2,639.14 1,559.92 6,335.49 1,346.66
41.841 57.580 49.249 47.796 46.627 6007.890 31.111
Jan
Feb Mar Q1 2010
Apr
May Jun Q2 2010
Support 1 6,250.00 6,500.00 8,290.00 2,577.00 1,520.00 5,900.00 1,330.00
2 6,118.00 6,400.00 8,080.00 2,556.00 1,473.00 5,700.00 1,290.00
Jul
Aug Sep Q3 2010
Oct
Nov Dec Q4 2010
Resistance 1 2 6,530.00 6,800.00 6,800.00 7,000.00 8,843.00 9,290.00 2,685.00 2,718.00 1,585.00 1,620.00 6,200.00 6,470.00 1,385.00 1,407.00
Jan
Feb Mar Q1 2011
Apr
May Jun Q2 2011
Strategy Medium Long Neutral Bearish Bullish Bullish Neutral Bullish Neutral Bearish Neutral Bearish Bearish Bearish Bearish Bearish
Jul
Aug Q3 2011
Moving Average 11 50 6,430.00 6,700.00 6,630.00 6,470.00 8,500.00 8,160.00 2,650.00 2,685.00 1,575.00 1,630.00 6,200.00 6,440.00 1,385.00 1,432.00
Definitions: * A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. When the MACD is above zero, the short-term average is above the long-term average, which signals upward momentum. The opposite is true. ** A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. × Moving average. Which is an arithmetic way and a tool used purpose of easing the price fluctuations to clarify the trend and differentiate between primary or secondary trend of prices and the normal fluctuations. ^ The price level which, historically, a stock has had difficulty falling below. It is thought of as the level at which a lot of buyers tend to enter the stock. ^^ The price at which a stock or market can trade, but can not exceed, for a certain period of time. The stock or market stops rising because sellers start to outnumber buyers. Disclaimer: This Technical Analysis is not an invitation to buy or sell, as it is “Global’s” opinion and speculation of future movement of the stock. Also it is not considered a sufficient material to relay on when taking financial and investment decisions. Investors should study the financial statement before taking any investment decision.
June - 2011
8
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
Disclosure The following is a comprehensive list of disclosures which may or may not apply to all our researches. Only the relevant disclosures which apply to this particular research has been mentioned in the table below under the heading of disclosure. Disclosure Checklist Company Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Abu Dhabi National Energy Agility Ahli Bank Air Arabia Al Rajhi Bank Al Rayan Bank Almarai Company Arab National Bank Arabian Cement Co. Arabtec Holding PJSC Aramex Arkan Building Materials Company Bahrain Telecommunications Company Bank Al Bilad Bank Dhofar Bank Muscat Banque Saudi Fransi Burgan Bank Commercial Bank of Kuwait Dana Gas Dar Alarkan Doha Bank Drake & Scull International Dubai Financial Market Dubai Islamic Bank Eastern Province Cement Company Emaar Economic City Emirates NBD Emirates Telecommunications Corporation Etihad Etisalat Company Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company First Gulf Bank Fujairah Cement Industries Gulf Cement Company Industries Qatar Jazeera Airways Company Kuwait Finance House Maaden Mobile Telecommunications Company National Bank of Abu Dhabi National Bank of Kuwait National Bank of Oman
June - 2011
Recommendation HOLD U/R U/R U/R U/R BUY HOLD U/R HOLD BUY SELL HOLD BUY SELL BUY SELL U/R U/R HOLD SELL HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY U/R STRONG BUY SELL U/R SELL HOLD BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY HOLD STRONG BUY SELL U/R BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD U/R
Bloomberg Ticker
Reuters Ticker
Price
Disclosure
ADCB UH ADIB UH TAQA UH AGLTY KK ABOB OM AIRARABI UH RJHI AB MARK QD AlMARAI AB ARNB AB ARCCO AB ARTC UH ARMX UH ARKAN UH BATELCO BI ALBI AB BKDB OM BKMB OM BSFR AB BURG KK CBK KK DANA UH ALARKAN AB DHBK QD DSI UH DFM UH DIB UH EACCO AB EMAAR AB EMIRATES UH ETISALAT UH EEC AB ALHOKAIR AB FGB UH FCEM KK GCEM UH IQCD QD JAZEERA KK KFIN KK MAADEN AB ZAIN KK NBAD UH NBK KK NBOB OM
ADCB.AD ADIB.AD TAQA.AD AGLTY.KW ABOB.OM AIRA.DU 1120.SE MARK.QA 2280.SE 1080.SE 3010.SE ARTC.DU ARMX.DU ARKN.AD BTEL.BH 1140.SE BDOF.OM BMAO.OM 1050.SE BURG.KW CBKK.KW DANA.AD 4300.SE DOBK.QA DSI.DU DFM.DU DISB.DU 3080.SE 4220.SE ENBD.DU ETEL.AD 7020.SE 4240.SE FGB.AD FCEM.KW GCEM.AD IQCD.QA JAZK.KW KFIN.KW 1211.SE ZAIN.KW NBAD.AD NBKK.KW NBO.OM
AED 2.91 AED 3.11 AED 1.23 KWD 0.375 OMR 0.276 SAR 0.707 SAR 75.5 QAR 23.05 SAR 93.75 SAR 31.7 SAR 43.8 AED 1.35 AED 1.88 AED 1.42 BHD 0.436 SAR 19.25 OMR 0.62 OMR 0.721 SAR 46.1 KWD 0.54 KWD 0.9 AED 0.64 SAR 8.9 QAR 51.5 AED 1.03 AED 1.24 AED 2.09 SAR 49.5 SAR 7.7 AED 3.79 AED 10.3 SAR 52 SAR 47.9 AED 17.5 KWD 1.09 AED 1.38 QAR 139 KWD 0.192 KWD 1.04 SAR 27.6 KWD 1.04 AED 11 KWD 1.2 OMR 0.322
1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10
9
Global Research - GCC National Mobile Telecommunications Company Oman Cement Company Oman Telecommunications Company Qassim Cement Company Qatar Electricity & Water Company Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company Qatar Insurance Company Qatar Islamic Bank Qatar National Bank Qatar National Cement Company Qatar Telecom Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co. Raysut Cement Company Riyad Bank SALAMA Samba Financial Group Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Saudi Cement Company Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company Saudi Electricity Company Saudi Hollandi Bank Saudi International Petrochemichal Company Saudi Real Estate Co. (Akaria) Saudi Research and Marketing Group Saudi Telecom Company Savola Group Company Sharjah Islamic Bank Tawuniya The Commercial Bank of Qatar The Saudi British Bank The Saudi Investment Bank Union National Bank Vodafone Qatar Yamama Saudi Cement Company Yanbu Cement Company Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company
GCC Equity Monitor BUY HOLD BUY SELL U/R HOLD HOLD U/R U/R HOLD BUY HOLD STRONG BUY U/R HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD BUY SELL SELL HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY BUY SELL BUY STRONG BUY U/R U/R U/R SELL HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD SELL SELL STRONG BUY
NMTC KK OCOI OM OTEL OM QACCO AB QEWS QD QGRI QD QATI QD QIBK QD QNBK QD QNCD QD QTEL QD RAKCC UH RAKCEC UH RCCI OM RIBL AB SALAMA UH SAMBA AB SAFCO AB SABIC AB SACCO AB SADAFCO AB SECO AB AAAL AB SIPCHEM AB SRECO AB RESEARCH AB STC AB SAVOLA AB NBS UH TAWUNIYA AB CBQK QD SABB AB SIBC AB UNB UH VFQS QD YACCO AB YNCCO AB YANSAB AB
NMTC.KW OCCO.OM OTL.OM 3040.SE QEWC.QA QGIR.QA QINS.QA QISB.QA QNBK.QA QANC.QA QTEL.QA RAKC.AD RKCE.AD RAYC.OM 1010.SE SALAMA.DU 1090.SE 2020.SE 2010.SE 3030.SE 2270.SE 5110.SE 1040.SE 2310.SE 4020.SE 4210.SE 4110.SE 2050.SE SIB.AD 8010.SE COMB.QA 1060.SE 1030.SE UNB.AD VFQS.QA 3020.SE 3060.SE 2290.SE
KWD 1.96 OMR 0.559 OMR 1.096 SAR 68.25 QAR 148 QAR 42.2 QAR 81.9 QAR 78.5 QAR 138 QAR 115 QAR 155 AED 0.92 AED 1.92 OMR 1.059 SAR 25.1 AED 0.76 SAR 52.5 SAR 179 SAR 107.25 SAR 63.75 SAR 48 SAR 14.15 SAR 29.8 SAR 21.65 SAR 25.7 SAR 18.6 SAR 37.5 SAR 27.6 AED 0.92 SAR 64 QAR 72.2 SAR 43.8 SAR 18.75 AED 3.58 QAR 7.89 SAR 63.25 SAR 52.75 SAR 48.4
1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10
1. Global Investment House did not receive and will not receive any compensation from the company or anyone else for the preparation of this report. 2. The company being researched holds more than 5% stake in Global Investment House. 3. Global Investment House makes a market in securities issued by this company. 4. Global Investment House acts as a corporate broker or sponsor to this company. 5. The author of or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report (or a member of his/her household) has a direct ownership position in securities issued by this company. 6. An employee of Global Investment House serves on the board of directors of this company. 7. Within the past year , Global Investment House has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company, for which it received fees. 8. Global Investment House has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. 9. Global Investment House expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. 10. Please see special footnote below for other relevant disclosures.
June - 2011
10
Global Research - GCC
Global Research: Equity Ratings Definitions Global Rating Defination STRONG BUY Fair value of the stock is BUY Fair value of the stock is HOLD Fair value of the stock is SELL Fair value of the stock is
GCC Equity Monitor
>20% from the current market price between +10% and +20% from the current market price between +10% and -10% from the current market price < -10% from the current market price
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June - 2011
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GCC Equity Monitor ROE & P/BV GCC
GCC Country Performance
23%
2011e ROE
18% Oman UAE KSA
13% GCC
Kuwait
8%
0.5
1M (%)
3M (%)
12M (%)
P/E*
P/BV*
DY (%)
Bahrain
-4.2%
-6.8%
-8.3%
12.8
0.9
7.7%
Kuwait
-5.1%
-2.3%
1.8%
14.7
1.7
3.9%
Oman
-5.2%
1.9%
-0.5%
10.5
1.6
6.5%
Qatar
-1.2%
1.0%
18.5%
10.8
0.5
5.9%
Saudi Arabia
Qatar 3% 0.0
Country
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.4%
15.1%
13.6%
11.6
1.8
4.0%
UAE-Abu Dhabi
-2.0%
5.0%
5.2%
8.0
1.2
5.0%
UAE-Dubai
-4.5%
14.4%
2.2%
8.1
0.8
4.9%
2.5
2011e P/BV
Source: Global Research, Bloomberg, * 2011E
GCC PE & Earnings Grow th 30%
Top Fundamental Picks
Qatar
2011e Earnings Growth
25% GCC 20%
KSA
Drake & Scull International: (UAE), CMP: AED1.03, Target Price: AED1.26 DSI recently made its second acquisition in Saudi Arabia. It acquired 100% stake of “International Centre for Contracting Co. (ICC) ” for an enterprise value of SAR128mn (EV/Backlog of 0.16x). Along with that, DSI is already tendering for work in Egypt, Vietnam and Djibouti. Company has planned to setup new unit in India as well. We expect backlog growth of over 50% to translate into an earnings growth of 30.7% in 2011.
Kuwait
UAE
15% 10% 5% Oman 0% 6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Islamic Arab Insurance Company (SALAMA): (UAE), CMP: AED0.70, Target Price: AED1.06 Islamic Arab Insurance Co. known as Salama is a leader in providing Takaful and Re-Takaful insurance. The company has presence in UAE, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Egypt and Algeria. Despite challenging economic conditions, Salama maintained strong growth in gross written premiums underpinned by the company’s strong foothold and leading position in the Takaful market. We expect the company to report a CAGR of 8%, 7%, 16% and 29% in FY10-14E for Gross written premiums, Net premiums earned, Net underwriting income and Net income respectively.
16.0
2011e P/E
World & GCC Indices YTD 7.8% 3.1%
0.0%
-0.6% -1.0% -5.2%
-2.2%
-6.7%
-7.4%
-9.1%
-10.5%
Yanbu National Petrochemical Company (YANSAB): (KSA), CMP: SAR48.4, Target Price: SAR58.1 We believe the expected (i) improvement in capacity utilization and (ii) higher prices of related product prices will lead YANSAB sales revenue to increase at a CAGR of 18.9% during 2010-14. Such factors will also lead to improvement in the company’s gross margin, which is expected to reach to 42.8% in 2014 as compared to 37.3% in 2010. However, bottom line is expected to increase at a CAGR of 24.9% during 2010-14.
US
India
China
Egypt
Kuwait
Jordan
Bahrain
UAE-Abu Dhabi
KSA
UAE -Dubai
Oman
Qatar
-22.4%
So urce: Glo bal Research, B lo o mberg
Top Technical Picks Food Products Co (KSA): CMP: SAR23.70 The stock approached the critical resistance line at SAR26.00 (high of May 2009), at which it could hold the initial test. However, stubbornness to cross over there would allow for some near-term consolidation with attempts to go lower for a correction purpose. Meanwhile, the weekly and daily “RSI” indicators are looking overbought at present, which could also increase the probability of the price to turn negative but the medium-term and long-term pictures remains bullish. However, closing above SAR26.00 will promote the target levels at SAR32.00 and SAR39.20. Nearby support levels are located at SAR22.00 and SAR18.00.
Global Research [email protected] Tel.: (965) 22951270
Qatar Islamic Insurance Co. (Qatar): CMP: QAR56.80 Qatar Islamic Insurance’s stock remains in the positive territory buoyed its holding above both medium-term (11 weeks) and long-term (50 weeks) moving averages. Further evidence will occur once the price crosses over the recent high at SAR61.90, which in turn will confirm a continuation pattern and calls for another leg up towards SAR64.85 and SAR74.85. However, losing the support level at SAR48.00 would delay any bullish intention and allows the bears to take the ride.
Global Investment House www.globalinv.net
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by country Global Research - GCC Universe UAE Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Arkan Building Materials Company Dana Gas Emirates Telecommunications Corporation First Gulf Bank Fujairah Cement Industries Gulf Cement Company National Bank of Abu Dhabi Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co. Abu Dhabi National Energy Union National Bank Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Air Arabia Arabtec Holding PJSC Dubai Financial Market Drake & Scull International Emirates NBD SALAMA Aramex Dubai Islamic Bank Sharjah Islamic Bank Total Kuwait Mobile Telecommunications Company National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait Finance House Commercial Bank of Kuwait National Mobile Telecommunications Company Jazeera Airways Company Agility Burgan Bank Total Oman Oman Telecommunications Company Bank Muscat Bank Dhofar National Bank of Oman Raysut Cement Company Oman International Bank Oman Cement Company Ahli Bank Total
Bloomberg Ticker
Mkt. Cap USD mn
Stock Performance 1M 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
ADCB UH ARKAN UH DANA UH ETISALAT UH FGB UH Fcem kk GCEM kk NBAD UH RAKCC UH RAKCEC UH TAQA UH UNB UH ADIB UH AIRARABI UH ARTC UH DFM UH DSI UH EMIRATES UH SALAMA UH ARMX UH DIB UH NBS UH
3,810.8 676.6 1,150.0 22,170.8 7,146.7 84.0 289.4 8,595.3 121.2 388.5 2,084.6 2,432.4 2,002.2 898.3 549.5 2,700.8 610.7 5,734.8 250.4 749.4 2,161.4 607.5
-0.3% -10.7% -5.9% -0.5% -3.8% -3.8% -4.9% -2.2% -10.7% -5.4% -19.1% -0.6% -5.2% -4.6% -5.6% -9.5% -1.9% -5.3% -2.3% -0.5% -6.3% 3.4%
30.5% 21.4% 6.7% -2.4% 19.7% 19.7% -9.2% 21.9% 50.8% -7.8% -8.3% 24.8% 10.7% -1.8% 29.8% 2.5% 14.4% 31.8% 26.7% 21.3% 4.7% 8.5%
73.2% -11.3% -12.3% 3.4% 22.8% 22.8% -29.1% 32.7% 19.5% 41.7% 19.2% 30.9% 25.3% -8.6% -18.9% -22.0% 19.8% 46.1% 7.2% 34.3% 3.2% 9.7%
7.9 64.5 12.2 10.6 6.7 61.0 25.8 7.3 47.1 5.2 5.4 5.0 5.0 10.0 9.4 106.8 10.6 5.2 9.3 12.2 6.7 7.8 8.03
0.9 1.5 0.5 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.5 1.11
11.2% 2.4% 4.2% 19.2% 19.1% 0.5% 2.8% 20.0% 1.2% 11.2% 14.2% 17.0% 23.5% 6.0% 7.7% 1.2% 8.1% 13.0% 6.3% 12.2% 13.1% 6.7% 14.4%
1.0% 1.5% 2.8% 10.0% 2.7% 0.3% 2.5% 1.9% 1.2% 4.9% 1.4% 2.2% 1.9% 5.0% 2.5% 1.2% 4.1% 1.4% 2.6% 9.5% 1.4% 1.7% 2.2%
2.91 1.42 0.64 10.30 17.50 1.09 1.38 11.00 0.92 1.92 1.23 3.58 3.11 0.71 1.35 1.24 1.03 3.79 0.76 1.88 2.09 0.92
2.90 1.19 0.91 12.44 21.30 0.75 U/R 14.50 0.90 2.31 U/R 4.40 U/R 0.78 1.33 0.85 1.26 4.31 1.06 2.07 U/R U/R
-0.3% -16.2% 42.4% 20.8% 21.7% -31.2% U/R 31.8% -2.2% 20.3% U/R 22.9% U/R 10.3% -1.5% -31.5% 22.3% 13.7% 39.5% 10.1% U/R U/R
HOLD SELL STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY SELL U/R STRONG BUY HOLD STRONG BUY U/R STRONG BUY U/R BUY HOLD SELL STRONG BUY BUY STRONG BUY BUY U/R U/R
ZAIN KK NBK KK KFIN KK CBK KK NMTC KK JAZEERA KK AGLTY KK BURG KK
16,218.6 17,001.9 10,160.8 4,159.2 3,568.7 153.5 1,426.2 2,886.7
-13.3% -4.8% -3.7% -3.2% -3.0% 60.0% -11.8% -1.8%
-11.9% -2.7% -1.4% -1.7% 14.7% 57.4% 1.4% 15.7%
2.3% 25.1% 15.5% 23.6% 21.6% 33.3% -12.0% 82.9%
11.0 14.2 24.9 26.4 10.6 9.2 14.4 33.0 14.72
1.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.2 2.1 0.4 1.8 1.66
14.1% 15.4% 8.9% 9.1% 14.0% 25.9% 2.8% 5.5% 11.8%
9.9% 2.4% 0.9% 1.1% 7.5% 2.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.5%
1.04 1.20 1.04 0.90 1.96 0.19 0.38 0.54
1.00 1.17 1.06 0.87 2.35 0.21 U/R 0.48
-3.8% -2.5% 1.9% -3.3% 19.9% 9.4% U/R -11.1%
HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD U/R SELL
2,135.1 2,899.7 1,473.9 904.1 550.1 653.7 480.4 574.5
-1.6% -6.6% -4.5% 3.2% -3.5% -0.5% -5.3% -3.5%
3.4% 7.9% -4.4% 11.1% 6.0% 6.7% 9.1% 0.8%
-0.3% 10.2% -6.7% -0.1% -22.9% 1.5% -10.4% 20.3%
7.6 10.3 16.5 11.4 10.5 13.6 10.8 11.8 10.48
1.7 1.3 2.4 1.3 2.0 1.4 1.2 2.1 1.56
22.7% 13.1% 15.1% 11.3% 18.8% 10.5% 11.5% 18.3% 15.2%
15.5% 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 10.5% 1.5% 10.1% 2.4% 2.8%
1.10 0.72 0.62 0.32 1.06 0.26 0.56 0.28
1.23 U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R 0.60 U/R
12.2% U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R 7.3% U/R
BUY U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R HOLD U/R
OTEL OM BKMB OM BKDB OM NBOB OM RCCI OM OIBB OM OCOI OM ABOB OM
June - 2011
2
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by country (cont) Global Research - GCC Universe Qatar Qatar National Bank Industries Qatar Qatar Telecom Vodafone Qatar Qatar Islamic Bank The Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar Electricity & Water Company Doha Bank Qatar Insurance Company Al Rayan Bank Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company Qatar National Cement Company Total Saudi Arabia Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Al Rajhi Bank Saudi Telecom Company Samba Financial Group Saudi Electricity Company Riyad Bank The Saudi British Bank Banque Saudi Fransi Etihad Etisalat Company Arab National Bank Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company Almarai Company Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company Savola Group Company Saudi Hollandi Bank The Saudi Investment Bank Saudi International Petrochemichal Company Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company Tawuniya Qassim Cement Company Yamama Saudi Cement Company Yanbu Cement Company Eastern Province Cement Company Arabian Cement Co. Saudi Cement Company Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company Saudi Research and Marketing Group Bank Al Bilad Maaden Dar Alarkan Emaar Economic City Saudi Real Estate Co. (Akaria) Total Bahrain Bahrain Telecommunications Company
Bloomberg Ticker
QNBK QD IQCD QD QTEL QD VFQS QD QIBK QD CBQK QD QEWS QD DHBK QD QATI QD MARK QD QGRI QD QNCD QD
SABIC AB RJHI AB STC AB SAMBA AB SECO AB RIBL AB SABB AB BSFR AB EEC AB ARNB AB SAFCO AB AlMARAI AB YANSAB AB SAVOLA AB AAAL AB SIBC AB SIPCHEM AB SADAFCO AB TAWUNIYA AB QACCO AB YACCO AB YNCCO AB EACCO AB ARCCO AB SACCO AB ALHOKAIR AB RESEARCH AB ALBI AB MAADEN AB ALARKAN AB EMAAR AB SRECO AB
BATELCO BI
Mkt. Cap USD mn
Stock Performance 1M 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
24,105.9 20,993.5 7,491.2 1,831.7 5,093.6 4,906.0 4,064.1 2,923.1 1,671.6 4,747.2 518.6 1,550.6
1.1% -5.6% -1.6% -0.9% -2.5% -1.4% 0.4% -0.4% 0.4% -0.1% -3.0% 2.7%
15.7% 11.1% 31.2% 3.3% 6.5% 2.6% 29.1% -0.6% 12.3% 5.7% -0.6% 19.7%
50.9% 46.3% 25.6% -3.8% 18.4% 19.7% 50.9% 28.3% 37.8% 70.7% 18.7% 76.9%
12.5 8.4 9.8 na 11.6 10.6 12.8 8.7 8.8 12.0 14.4 12.1 10.79
2.3 2.7 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.4 3.3 1.8 1.7 2.2 0.7 2.5 2.02
23.5% 36.4% 13.9% -5.6% 17.5% 14.4% 27.0% 22.1% 19.2% 21.8% 5.2% 20.9% 21.1%
2.8% 25.9% 2.7% -4.7% 2.8% 2.6% 5.3% 2.6% 9.3% 3.7% 3.3% 17.4% 4.2%
138.00 139.00 155.00 7.89 78.50 72.20 148.00 51.50 81.90 23.05 42.20 115.00
U/R 165.96 177.56 7.78 U/R U/R U/R U/R 82.70 U/R 42.60 117.90
U/R 19.4% 14.6% -1.4% U/R U/R U/R U/R 1.0% U/R 0.9% 2.5%
U/R BUY BUY HOLD U/R U/R U/R U/R HOLD U/R HOLD HOLD
85,795.4 30,198.4 19,998.9 12,599.3 15,721.1 10,039.5 8,759.5 8,890.2 9,706.1 7,197.6 11,932.7 5,749.7 7,259.6 3,679.8 2,628.2 2,749.7 2,116.8 416.0 1,279.9 1,637.9 2,276.9 1,476.9 1,135.1 934.4 2,600.9 894.1 396.8 1,539.9 6,807.6 2,563.1 1,745.2 822.4
-3.8% -1.6% 3.3% -5.8% 2.5% -3.5% -3.7% -0.6% -2.8% -5.1% 0.1% 0.3% -7.4% -0.7% -2.3% -1.6% -0.7% 12.4% -3.4% 10.5% 8.6% 18.5% 7.6% 7.9% 13.3% -2.2% 3.6% 4.1% 0.0% -1.1% 9.2% 13.5%
17.1% 4.7% 4.5% 2.9% 12.0% 7.3% 18.4% 15.3% 12.3% 6.9% 10.6% 3.2% 16.6% 9.4% 6.8% 6.6% 13.1% 21.5% 6.3% 26.2% 31.8% 36.9% 16.7% 55.4% 35.5% 38.3% 20.5% 5.2% 25.5% 1.7% 19.4% 21.5%
24.8% 1.6% 12.8% -2.3% 39.2% -3.5% 2.6% 7.0% 9.6% 5.6% 58.6% 1.0% 25.4% -11.4% -9.7% 19.3% 13.9% 20.6% 22.4% 9.1% 46.8% 33.0% 28.0% 34.2% 57.7% 23.4% 3.1% -4.5% 60.5% -30.5% -11.0% 22.9%
10.4 14.3 9.0 10.1 24.4 12.3 15.0 10.7 7.6 12.0 12.6 14.6 9.7 14.7 9.7 11.0 13.7 11.5 7.6 12.4 12.7 13.2 12.6 12.5 13.9 9.2 16.4 15.5 53.5 6.6 na 31.2 11.60
1.7 3.9 1.3 1.7 1.1 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 5.4 3.2 3.1 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.2 2.1 2.2 3.2 2.6 2.0 2.0 1.3 2.8 2.3 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.80
17.5% 26.6% 14.9% 17.5% 4.7% 10.5% 14.1% 17.1% 27.9% 14.5% 46.2% 22.9% 35.1% 11.1% 14.7% 10.9% 9.2% 19.4% 31.8% 26.4% 20.8% 16.0% 15.9% 10.8% 20.4% 26.2% 5.8% 11.3% 2.5% 9.8% -1.4% 3.1% 16.1%
9.3% 4.1% 7.2% 2.5% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 13.9% 1.9% 39.7% 11.3% 11.7% 5.1% 1.8% 1.8% 4.7% 13.0% 7.3% 24.1% 18.4% 9.6% 14.3% 6.7% 15.1% 16.8% 4.1% 1.6% 1.4% 6.2% -1.1% 2.8% 4.5%
107.25 75.50 37.50 52.50 14.15 25.10 43.80 46.10 52.00 31.70 179.00 93.75 48.40 27.60 29.80 18.75 21.65 48.00 64.00 68.25 63.25 52.75 49.50 43.80 63.75 47.90 18.60 19.25 27.60 8.90 7.70 25.70
120.11 76.98 41.90 55.36 13.88 25.70 36.00 43.10 68.50 36.60 173.64 98.0 58.10 34.91 27.11 20.50 27.35 42.68 113.00 60.90 56.10 42.60 39.40 33.80 47.30 46.60 15.80 16.80 27.46 11.37 7.20 30.40
12.0% 2.0% 11.7% 5.4% -1.9% 2.4% -17.8% -6.5% 31.7% 15.5% -3.0% 4.5% 20.0% 26.5% -9.0% 9.3% 26.3% -11.1% U/R -10.8% -11.3% -19.2% -20.4% -22.8% -25.8% -2.7% -15.1% -12.7% -0.5% 27.8% -6.5% 18.3%
BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD SELL HOLD STRONG BUY BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY SELL U/R SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL HOLD SELL SELL HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD BUY
1,665.4
-9.9%
-7.6%
-17.9%
7.4
1.1
15.8%
12.6%
0.44
0.49
12.4%
BUY
* All price in local currency as of 31 May 2011 Source: Bloomberg & Global Research
June - 2011
3
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by sector Global Research - GCC Universe
Bloomberg Ticker
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
Cement & Building Material Arkan Building Materials Company Fujairah Cement Industries Gulf Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co. Raysut Cement Company Oman Cement Company Qatar National Cement Company Qassim Cement Company Yamama Saudi Cement Company Yanbu Cement Company Eastern Province Cement Company Arabian Cement Co. Saudi Cement Company Total
ARKAN UH FCEM KK GCEM UH RAKCC UH RAKCEC UH RCCI OM OCOI OM QNCD QD QACCO AB YACCO AB YNCCO AB EACCO AB ARCCO AB SACCO AB
676.6 84.0 289.4 121.2 388.5 550.1 480.4 1,550.6 1,637.9 2,276.9 1,476.9 1,135.1 934.4 2,600.9
-10.7% -3.8% -4.9% -10.7% -5.4% -3.5% -5.3% 2.7% 10.5% 8.6% 18.5% 7.6% 7.9% 13.3%
21.4% 19.7% -9.2% 50.8% -7.8% 6.0% 9.1% 19.7% 26.2% 31.8% 36.9% 16.7% 55.4% 35.5%
-11.3% 22.8% -29.1% 19.5% 41.7% -22.9% -10.4% 76.9% 9.1% 46.8% 33.0% 28.0% 34.2% 57.7%
64.5 61.0 25.8 47.1 5.2 10.5 10.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.2 12.6 12.5 13.9 12.91
1.5 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 2.0 1.2 2.5 3.2 2.6 2.0 2.0 1.3 2.8 1.94
2.4% 0.5% 2.8% 1.2% 11.2% 18.8% 11.5% 20.9% 26.4% 20.8% 16.0% 15.9% 10.8% 20.4% 14.7%
1.5% 0.3% 2.5% 1.2% 4.9% 10.5% 10.1% 17.4% 24.1% 18.4% 9.6% 14.3% 6.7% 15.1% 10.2%
1.42 1.09 1.38 0.92 1.92 1.06 0.56 115.00 68.25 63.25 52.75 49.50 43.80 63.75
1.19 0.75 U/R 0.90 2.31 U/R 0.60 117.90 60.90 56.10 42.60 39.40 33.80 47.30
-16.2% -31.2% U/R -2.2% 20.3% U/R 7.3% 2.5% -10.8% -11.3% -19.2% -20.4% -22.8% -25.8%
SELL SELL U/R HOLD STRONG BUY U/R HOLD HOLD SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL
Insurance SALAMA Qatar Insurance Company Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company Tawuniya Total
SALAMA UH QATI QD QGRI QD TAWUNIYA AB
250.4 1,671.6 518.6 1,279.9
-2.3% 0.4% -3.0% -3.4%
26.7% 12.3% -0.6% 6.3%
7.2% 37.8% 18.7% 22.4%
9.3 8.8 14.4 7.6 8.83
0.6 1.7 0.7 2.2 1.47
6.3% 19.2% 5.2% 31.8% 16.0%
2.6% 9.3% 3.3% 7.3% 6.5%
0.76 81.90 42.20 64.00
1.06 82.70 42.60 113.00
39.5% 1.0% 0.9% U/R
STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD U/R
Telecom Emirates Telecommunications Corporation Bahrain Telecommunications Company Mobile Telecommunications Company National Mobile Telecommunications Company Oman Telecommunications Company Qatar Telecom Vodafone Qatar Saudi Telecom Company Etihad Etisalat Company Total
ETISALAT UH BATELCO BI ZAIN KK NMTC KK OTEL OM QTEL QD VFQS QD STC AB EEC AB
22,170.8 1,665.4 16,218.6 3,568.7 2,135.1 7,491.2 1,831.7 19,998.9 9,706.1
-0.5% -9.9% -13.3% -3.0% -1.6% -1.6% -0.9% 3.3% -2.8%
-2.4% -7.6% -11.9% 14.7% 3.4% 31.2% 3.3% 4.5% 12.3%
3.4% -17.9% 0.0% 21.6% -0.3% 25.6% -3.8% 12.8% 9.6%
10.6 7.4 11.0 10.6 7.6 9.8 na 9.0 7.6 9.89
2.0 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.68
19.2% 15.8% 14.1% 14.0% 22.7% 13.9% -5.6% 14.9% 27.9% 16.1%
10.0% 12.6% 9.9% 7.5% 15.5% 2.7% -4.7% 7.2% 13.9% 7.5%
10.30 0.44 1.04 1.96 1.10 155.00 7.89 37.50 52.00
12.44 0.49 1.00 2.35 1.23 177.56 7.78 41.90 68.50
20.8% 12.4% -3.8% 19.9% 12.2% 14.6% -1.4% 11.7% 31.7%
STRONG BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY STRONG BUY
Petrochemicals Dana Gas Industries Qatar Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company Saudi International Petrochemichal Company Total
DANA UH IQCD QD SABIC AB SAFCO AB YANSAB AB SIPCHEM AB
1,150.0 20,993.5 85,795.4 11,932.7 7,259.6 2,116.8
-5.9% -5.6% -3.8% 0.1% -7.4% -0.7%
6.7% 11.1% 17.1% 10.6% 16.6% 13.1%
-12.3% 46.3% 24.8% 58.6% 25.4% 13.9%
12.2 8.4 10.4 12.6 9.7 13.7 10.15
0.5 2.7 1.7 5.4 3.1 1.2 2.23
4.2% 36.4% 17.5% 46.2% 35.1% 9.2% 20.4%
2.8% 25.9% 9.3% 39.7% 11.7% 4.7% 11.2%
0.64 139.00 107.25 179.00 48.40 21.65
0.91 165.96 120.11 173.64 58.10 27.35
42.4% 19.4% 12.0% -3.0% 20.0% 26.3%
STRONG BUY BUY BUY HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY
June - 2011
4
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by sector (cont) Global Research - GCC Universe Banks Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank First Gulf Bank National Bank of Abu Dhabi Union National Bank Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Emirates NBD Dubai Islamic Bank Sharjah Islamic Bank National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait Finance House Commercial Bank of Kuwait Burgan Bank Bank Muscat Bank Dhofar National Bank of Oman Ahli Bank Qatar National Bank Qatar Islamic Bank The Commercial Bank of Qatar Doha Bank Al Rayan Bank Al Rajhi Bank Samba Financial Group Riyad Bank The Saudi British Bank Banque Saudi Fransi Arab National Bank Saudi Hollandi Bank The Saudi Investment Bank Bank Al Bilad Total
Bloomberg Ticker
ADCB UH FGB UH NBAD UH UNB UH ADIB UH EMIRATES UH DIB UH NBS UH NBK KK KFIN KK CBK KK BURG KK BKMB OM BKDB OM NBOB OM ABOB OM QNBK QD QIBK QD CBQK QD DHBK QD MARK QD RJHI AB SAMBA AB RIBL AB SABB AB BSFR AB ARNB AB AAAL AB SIBC AB ALBI AB
Utilities Abu Dhabi National Energy Qatar Electricity & Water Company Saudi Electricity Company Total
TAQA UH QEWS QD SECO AB
Transportation and Logistics Aramex Air Arabia Jazeera Airways Company Agility Total
ARMX UH AIRARABI UH JAZEERA KK AGLTY KK
Stock Performance 3M 12M
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
3,810.8 7,146.7 8,595.3 2,432.4 2,002.2 5,734.8 2,161.4 607.5 17,001.9 10,160.8 4,159.2 2,886.7 2,899.7 1,473.9 904.1 574.5 24,105.9 5,093.6 4,906.0 2,923.1 4,747.2 30,198.4 12,599.3 10,039.5 8,759.5 8,890.2 7,197.6 2,628.2 2,749.7 1,539.9
-0.3% -3.8% -2.2% -0.6% -5.2% -5.3% -6.3% 3.4% -4.8% -3.7% -3.2% -1.8% -6.6% -4.5% 3.2% -3.5% 1.1% -2.5% -1.4% -0.4% -0.1% -1.6% -5.8% -3.5% -3.7% -0.6% -5.1% -2.3% -1.6% 4.1%
30.5% 19.7% 21.9% 24.8% 10.7% 31.8% 4.7% 8.5% -2.7% -1.4% -1.7% 15.7% 7.9% -4.4% 11.1% 0.8% 15.7% 6.5% 2.6% -0.6% 5.7% 4.7% 2.9% 7.3% 18.4% 15.3% 6.9% 6.8% 6.6% 5.2%
73.2% 22.8% 32.7% 30.9% 25.3% 46.1% 3.2% 9.7% 25.1% 15.5% 23.6% 82.9% 10.2% -6.7% -0.1% 20.3% 50.9% 18.4% 19.7% 28.3% 70.7% 1.6% -2.3% -3.5% 2.6% 7.0% 5.6% -9.7% 19.3% -4.5%
7.9 6.7 7.3 5.0 5.0 5.2 6.7 7.8 14.2 24.9 26.4 33.0 10.3 16.5 11.4 11.8 12.5 11.6 10.6 8.7 12.0 14.3 10.1 12.3 15.0 10.7 12.0 9.7 11.0 15.5 11.15
0.9 1.2 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.3 2.4 1.3 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.8 2.2 3.9 1.7 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.91
11.2% 19.1% 20.0% 17.0% 23.5% 13.0% 13.1% 6.7% 15.4% 8.9% 9.1% 5.5% 13.1% 15.1% 11.3% 18.3% 23.5% 17.5% 14.4% 22.1% 21.8% 26.6% 17.5% 10.5% 14.1% 17.1% 14.5% 14.7% 10.9% 11.3% 16.2%
1.0% 2.7% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.6% 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 3.7% 4.1% 2.5% 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 2.1%
2.91 17.50 11.00 3.58 3.11 3.79 2.09 0.92 1.20 1.04 0.90 0.54 0.72 0.62 0.32 0.28 138.00 78.50 72.20 51.50 23.05 75.50 52.50 25.10 43.80 46.10 31.70 29.80 18.75 19.25
2.90 21.30 14.50 4.40 U/R 4.31 U/R U/R 1.17 1.06 0.87 0.48 U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R 76.98 55.36 25.70 36.00 43.10 36.60 27.11 20.50 16.80
-0.3% 21.7% 31.8% 22.9% U/R 13.7% U/R U/R -2.5% 1.9% -3.3% -11.1% U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R 2.0% 5.4% 2.4% -17.8% -6.5% 15.5% -9.0% 9.3% -12.7%
HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY U/R BUY U/R U/R HOLD HOLD HOLD SELL U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R U/R HOLD HOLD HOLD SELL HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD SELL
2,084.6 4,064.1 15,721.1
-19.1% 0.4% 2.5%
-8.3% 29.1% 12.0%
19.2% 50.9% 39.2%
5.4 12.8 24.4 16.22
0.7 3.3 1.1 1.27
14.2% 27.0% 4.7% 7.6%
1.4% 5.3% 1.2% 1.6%
1.23 148.00 14.15
U/R U/R 13.88
U/R U/R -1.9%
U/R U/R HOLD
749.4 898.3 153.5 1,426.2
-0.5% -4.6% 60.0% -11.8%
21.3% -1.8% 57.4% 1.4%
34.3% -8.6% 33.3% -12.0%
12.2 10.0 9.2 14.4 12.10
1.5 0.6 2.1 0.4 0.58
12.2% 6.0% 25.9% 2.8% 4.8%
9.5% 5.0% 2.6% 1.7% 3.0%
1.88 0.71 0.19 0.38
2.07 0.78 0.21 U/R
10.1% 10.3% 9.4% U/R
BUY BUY HOLD U/R
June - 2011
5
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by sector Global Research - GCC Universe
Bloomberg Ticker
Construction Contractors Arabtec Holding Drake & Scull International Total
ARTC UH DSI UH
Food & Agriculture Almarai Company Savola Group Company Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company Total
AlMARAI AB SAVOLA AB SADAFCO AB
Real Estate Dar Alarkan Emaar Economic City Saudi Real Estate Co. (Akaria) Total Others Dubai Financial Market Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company Maaden Saudi Research and Marketing Group Total
ALARKAN AB EMAAR AB SRECO AB
DFM UH ALHOKAIR AB MAADEN AB RESEARCH AB
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
549.5 610.7
-5.6% -1.9%
29.8% 14.4%
-18.9% 19.8%
9.4 10.6 10.01
0.7 0.8 0.81
7.7% 8.1% 7.9%
2.5% 4.1% 3.1%
1.35 1.03
1.33 1.26
-1.5% 22.3%
HOLD STRONG BUY
5,749.7 3,679.8 416.0
0.3% -0.7% 12.4%
3.2% 9.4% 21.5%
1.0% -11.4% 20.6%
14.6 14.7 11.5 14.43
3.2 1.6 2.1 2.45
22.9% 11.1% 19.4% 16.3%
11.3% 5.1% 13.0% 7.9%
93.75 27.60 48.00
98.00 34.91 42.68
4.5% 26.5% -11.1%
HOLD STRONG BUY SELL
2,563.1 1,745.2 822.4
-1.1% 9.2% 13.5%
1.7% 19.4% 21.5%
-30.5% -11.0% 22.9%
6.6 na 31.2 13.15
0.6 0.9 1.0 0.78
9.8% -1.4% 3.1% 5.7%
6.2% -1.1% 2.8% 4.0%
8.90 7.70 25.70
11.37 7.20 30.40
27.8% -6.5% 18.3%
STRONG BUY HOLD BUY
2,700.8 894.1 6,807.6 396.8
-9.5% -2.2% 0.0% 3.6%
2.5% 38.3% 25.5% 20.5%
-22.0% 23.4% 60.5% 3.1%
106.8 9.2 53.5 16.4 39.41
1.3 2.3 1.3 0.9 1.38
1.2% 26.2% 2.5% 5.8% 3.5%
1.2% 16.8% 1.4% 4.1% 2.2%
1.24 47.90 27.60 18.60
0.85 46.60 27.46 15.80
-31.5% -2.7% -0.5% -15.1%
SELL HOLD HOLD SELL
* All price in local currency as of 31 May 2011 Source: Bloomberg & Global Research
June - 2011
6
June - 2011 10%
5% 5%
Dividend Yield Top 10 Gainers in 1 month
15.0% 65%
12.0% 60%
55%
50%
9.0% 45%
40%
6.0% 35%
30%
25%
3.0% 20%
15%
10%
0.0%
5%
0% Jazeera Airways Company
15%
10%
Saudi Research and Marketing Group
15%
Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company
20%
Bank Al Bilad
40%
Qassim Cement Company
30%
Eastern Province Cement Company
45%
35%
Al Rajhi Bank
50%
40% Dubai Islamic Bank
Union National Bank
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company
Gulf Cement Company
Emirates NBD
Global Research - GCC
Arabian Cement Co.
45%
Qatar Electricity & Water Company
Return on Assets (ROA)
Yamama Saudi Cement Company
Air Arabia
0.1
-
Etihad Etisalat Company
0.2
1.00
Qassim Cement Company
0.3
2.00
Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company
0.4
3.00
Tawuniya
Attractive P/E x
Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company
0.5
4.00
Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co.
0.6
5.00
Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company
0.7
6.00
Saudi Cement Company
0.8
Sharjah Islamic Bank
Technical Overview
7.00
Industries Qatar
Dana Gas
Sharjah Islamic Bank
Oman Telecommunications Company
Etihad Etisalat Company
Bahrain Telecommunications Company
National Bank of Abu Dhabi
Dubai Islamic Bank
Abu Dhabi National Energy
Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co.
Emirates NBD
0.9
8.00
Yanbu Cement Company
0% Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company
Etihad Etisalat Company
Eastern Province Cement Company
Saudi Cement Company
Oman Telecommunications Company
Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company
Qatar National Cement Company
Yamama Saudi Cement Company
Qassim Cement Company
Industries Qatar
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
9.00
Jazeera Airways Company
Sharjah Islamic Bank
Qatar Insurance Company
Saudi Telecom Company
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
Oman Cement Company
The Commercial Bank of Qatar
Oman Telecommunications Company
Raysut Cement Company
Doha Bank
Air Arabia
Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company
GCC Equity Monitor
Charts Attractive P/BV x
Return on Equity (ROE)
25% 35%
30%
25%
20%
0%
Source: Glob al Research, Bloomb erg
7
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
Technical Overview: Bahrain Stock Exchange Bahrain All Share Index closed at 1,346.66 point. The index witnessed a noticeable drop since the end of March, eroding its medium-term (11 weeks) and long-term (50 weeks) moving averages. In addition, bears managed to cross below the critical support level at 1,360 point (low of July 2010). Given all these aspects, the bearish tone is more likely to continue but the slippage may not be so sharp due to the extreme oversold status of the “RSI” indicator. Nearby support levels are located at 1,330 point and 1,290 point. However, crossing over the tiny resistance line at 1,365 point would be a positive sign, which could in turn trigger 1,385 point and 1,407 point. Only above 1,432 point will confirm an end to the bearish move. Weekly “RSI” indicator is neutral to bearish at present. Strategy: Medium-term and long-term investors can only enter the market at above 1,385 point and 1,432 point, respectively. Bahrain All Share Index May 31, Index Name 2011 Weekly Q.BAX
Sector
Index
Reuters’ RIC
Last Trade (point)
1,346.66
MACD*
-13.568
RSI**
31.111
Moving Average (11 weeks) Moving Average (50 weeks)
EMA, Q.BAX, Last Trade(Last ), 11 05/06/11, 1,384.194 EMA, Q.BAX, Last Trade(Last ), 50 05/06/11, 1,432.750 Cndl, Q.BAX, Last Trade 05/06/11, 1,351.330, 1,353.190, 1,345.020, 1,346.660 BBand, Q.BAX, Last Trade(Last ), 20, Simple, 2.0 05/06/11, 1,480.132, 1,411.393, 1,342.654
Price BHD
1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500
1,477
1,450 1,400
1,360
1,385.00
1,350
1,330
1,300 .123
Vol, Q.BAX, Last Trade 05/06/11, 1.824M
1,432.00
Volume 30M
Support (1) ^
1,330.00
Support (2) ^
1,290.00
Resistance(1) ^^
1,385.00
Resistance(2) ^^
1,407.00
Trend Status
Bearish
.1234 MACD, Q.BAX, Last Trade(Last ), 12, 26, 9, Exponent ial 05/06/11, -20.616, -13.568
Value BHD .123
RSI, Q.BAX, Last Trade(Last ), 14, Wilder Smoothing 05/06/11, 31.111
Value BHD 30
Name of Index Kuwait Stock Exchange Price Index Saudi All Share Index QE Index Abu Dhabi Price Index Dubai Financial Market Index MSM 30 Index Bahrain All Share Index
.123 Apr
May Jun Q2 2009
Jul
Aug Sep Q3 2009
Oct
Nov Dec Q4 2009
Reuter' RIC
Close
Weekly RSI
6,378.20 6,735.98 8,375.19 2,639.14 1,559.92 6,335.49 1,346.66
41.841 57.580 49.249 47.796 46.627 6007.890 31.111
Jan
Feb Mar Q1 2010
Apr
May Jun Q2 2010
Support 1 6,250.00 6,500.00 8,290.00 2,577.00 1,520.00 5,900.00 1,330.00
2 6,118.00 6,400.00 8,080.00 2,556.00 1,473.00 5,700.00 1,290.00
Jul
Aug Sep Q3 2010
Oct
Nov Dec Q4 2010
Resistance 1 2 6,530.00 6,800.00 6,800.00 7,000.00 8,843.00 9,290.00 2,685.00 2,718.00 1,585.00 1,620.00 6,200.00 6,470.00 1,385.00 1,407.00
Jan
Feb Mar Q1 2011
Apr
May Jun Q2 2011
Strategy Medium Long Neutral Bearish Bullish Bullish Neutral Bullish Neutral Bearish Neutral Bearish Bearish Bearish Bearish Bearish
Jul
Aug Q3 2011
Moving Average 11 50 6,430.00 6,700.00 6,630.00 6,470.00 8,500.00 8,160.00 2,650.00 2,685.00 1,575.00 1,630.00 6,200.00 6,440.00 1,385.00 1,432.00
Definitions: * A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. When the MACD is above zero, the short-term average is above the long-term average, which signals upward momentum. The opposite is true. ** A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. × Moving average. Which is an arithmetic way and a tool used purpose of easing the price fluctuations to clarify the trend and differentiate between primary or secondary trend of prices and the normal fluctuations. ^ The price level which, historically, a stock has had difficulty falling below. It is thought of as the level at which a lot of buyers tend to enter the stock. ^^ The price at which a stock or market can trade, but can not exceed, for a certain period of time. The stock or market stops rising because sellers start to outnumber buyers. Disclaimer: This Technical Analysis is not an invitation to buy or sell, as it is “Global’s” opinion and speculation of future movement of the stock. Also it is not considered a sufficient material to relay on when taking financial and investment decisions. Investors should study the financial statement before taking any investment decision.
June - 2011
8
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
Disclosure The following is a comprehensive list of disclosures which may or may not apply to all our researches. Only the relevant disclosures which apply to this particular research has been mentioned in the table below under the heading of disclosure. Disclosure Checklist Company Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Abu Dhabi National Energy Agility Ahli Bank Air Arabia Al Rajhi Bank Al Rayan Bank Almarai Company Arab National Bank Arabian Cement Co. Arabtec Holding PJSC Aramex Arkan Building Materials Company Bahrain Telecommunications Company Bank Al Bilad Bank Dhofar Bank Muscat Banque Saudi Fransi Burgan Bank Commercial Bank of Kuwait Dana Gas Dar Alarkan Doha Bank Drake & Scull International Dubai Financial Market Dubai Islamic Bank Eastern Province Cement Company Emaar Economic City Emirates NBD Emirates Telecommunications Corporation Etihad Etisalat Company Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company First Gulf Bank Fujairah Cement Industries Gulf Cement Company Industries Qatar Jazeera Airways Company Kuwait Finance House Maaden Mobile Telecommunications Company National Bank of Abu Dhabi National Bank of Kuwait National Bank of Oman
June - 2011
Recommendation HOLD U/R U/R U/R U/R BUY HOLD U/R HOLD BUY SELL HOLD BUY SELL BUY SELL U/R U/R HOLD SELL HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY U/R STRONG BUY SELL U/R SELL HOLD BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY HOLD STRONG BUY SELL U/R BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD U/R
Bloomberg Ticker
Reuters Ticker
Price
Disclosure
ADCB UH ADIB UH TAQA UH AGLTY KK ABOB OM AIRARABI UH RJHI AB MARK QD AlMARAI AB ARNB AB ARCCO AB ARTC UH ARMX UH ARKAN UH BATELCO BI ALBI AB BKDB OM BKMB OM BSFR AB BURG KK CBK KK DANA UH ALARKAN AB DHBK QD DSI UH DFM UH DIB UH EACCO AB EMAAR AB EMIRATES UH ETISALAT UH EEC AB ALHOKAIR AB FGB UH FCEM KK GCEM UH IQCD QD JAZEERA KK KFIN KK MAADEN AB ZAIN KK NBAD UH NBK KK NBOB OM
ADCB.AD ADIB.AD TAQA.AD AGLTY.KW ABOB.OM AIRA.DU 1120.SE MARK.QA 2280.SE 1080.SE 3010.SE ARTC.DU ARMX.DU ARKN.AD BTEL.BH 1140.SE BDOF.OM BMAO.OM 1050.SE BURG.KW CBKK.KW DANA.AD 4300.SE DOBK.QA DSI.DU DFM.DU DISB.DU 3080.SE 4220.SE ENBD.DU ETEL.AD 7020.SE 4240.SE FGB.AD FCEM.KW GCEM.AD IQCD.QA JAZK.KW KFIN.KW 1211.SE ZAIN.KW NBAD.AD NBKK.KW NBO.OM
AED 2.91 AED 3.11 AED 1.23 KWD 0.375 OMR 0.276 SAR 0.707 SAR 75.5 QAR 23.05 SAR 93.75 SAR 31.7 SAR 43.8 AED 1.35 AED 1.88 AED 1.42 BHD 0.436 SAR 19.25 OMR 0.62 OMR 0.721 SAR 46.1 KWD 0.54 KWD 0.9 AED 0.64 SAR 8.9 QAR 51.5 AED 1.03 AED 1.24 AED 2.09 SAR 49.5 SAR 7.7 AED 3.79 AED 10.3 SAR 52 SAR 47.9 AED 17.5 KWD 1.09 AED 1.38 QAR 139 KWD 0.192 KWD 1.04 SAR 27.6 KWD 1.04 AED 11 KWD 1.2 OMR 0.322
1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10
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Global Research - GCC National Mobile Telecommunications Company Oman Cement Company Oman Telecommunications Company Qassim Cement Company Qatar Electricity & Water Company Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company Qatar Insurance Company Qatar Islamic Bank Qatar National Bank Qatar National Cement Company Qatar Telecom Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co. Raysut Cement Company Riyad Bank SALAMA Samba Financial Group Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Saudi Cement Company Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company Saudi Electricity Company Saudi Hollandi Bank Saudi International Petrochemichal Company Saudi Real Estate Co. (Akaria) Saudi Research and Marketing Group Saudi Telecom Company Savola Group Company Sharjah Islamic Bank Tawuniya The Commercial Bank of Qatar The Saudi British Bank The Saudi Investment Bank Union National Bank Vodafone Qatar Yamama Saudi Cement Company Yanbu Cement Company Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company
GCC Equity Monitor BUY HOLD BUY SELL U/R HOLD HOLD U/R U/R HOLD BUY HOLD STRONG BUY U/R HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD BUY SELL SELL HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY BUY SELL BUY STRONG BUY U/R U/R U/R SELL HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD SELL SELL STRONG BUY
NMTC KK OCOI OM OTEL OM QACCO AB QEWS QD QGRI QD QATI QD QIBK QD QNBK QD QNCD QD QTEL QD RAKCC UH RAKCEC UH RCCI OM RIBL AB SALAMA UH SAMBA AB SAFCO AB SABIC AB SACCO AB SADAFCO AB SECO AB AAAL AB SIPCHEM AB SRECO AB RESEARCH AB STC AB SAVOLA AB NBS UH TAWUNIYA AB CBQK QD SABB AB SIBC AB UNB UH VFQS QD YACCO AB YNCCO AB YANSAB AB
NMTC.KW OCCO.OM OTL.OM 3040.SE QEWC.QA QGIR.QA QINS.QA QISB.QA QNBK.QA QANC.QA QTEL.QA RAKC.AD RKCE.AD RAYC.OM 1010.SE SALAMA.DU 1090.SE 2020.SE 2010.SE 3030.SE 2270.SE 5110.SE 1040.SE 2310.SE 4020.SE 4210.SE 4110.SE 2050.SE SIB.AD 8010.SE COMB.QA 1060.SE 1030.SE UNB.AD VFQS.QA 3020.SE 3060.SE 2290.SE
KWD 1.96 OMR 0.559 OMR 1.096 SAR 68.25 QAR 148 QAR 42.2 QAR 81.9 QAR 78.5 QAR 138 QAR 115 QAR 155 AED 0.92 AED 1.92 OMR 1.059 SAR 25.1 AED 0.76 SAR 52.5 SAR 179 SAR 107.25 SAR 63.75 SAR 48 SAR 14.15 SAR 29.8 SAR 21.65 SAR 25.7 SAR 18.6 SAR 37.5 SAR 27.6 AED 0.92 SAR 64 QAR 72.2 SAR 43.8 SAR 18.75 AED 3.58 QAR 7.89 SAR 63.25 SAR 52.75 SAR 48.4
1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10
1. Global Investment House did not receive and will not receive any compensation from the company or anyone else for the preparation of this report. 2. The company being researched holds more than 5% stake in Global Investment House. 3. Global Investment House makes a market in securities issued by this company. 4. Global Investment House acts as a corporate broker or sponsor to this company. 5. The author of or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report (or a member of his/her household) has a direct ownership position in securities issued by this company. 6. An employee of Global Investment House serves on the board of directors of this company. 7. Within the past year , Global Investment House has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company, for which it received fees. 8. Global Investment House has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. 9. Global Investment House expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. 10. Please see special footnote below for other relevant disclosures.
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Global Research - GCC
Global Research: Equity Ratings Definitions Global Rating Defination STRONG BUY Fair value of the stock is BUY Fair value of the stock is HOLD Fair value of the stock is SELL Fair value of the stock is
GCC Equity Monitor
>20% from the current market price between +10% and +20% from the current market price between +10% and -10% from the current market price < -10% from the current market price
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This material was also produced by Global Investment House - Saudia, a firm regulated by the Capital Market Authority of KSA. This document is not to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived by Global –Saudia from sources believed to be reliable, but Global- Saudia has not independently verified the contents of this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Global – Saudia accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Global shall have no responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect of any inaccuracy in or omission from this or any other document prepared by Global- Saudia for, or sent by Global- Saudia to any person and any such person shall be responsible for conducting his own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this or other such document. Global investment house- Saudia is authorized and regulated by the Capital Market Authority (CMA) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. License Number 07067-37”.
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