Global Power Synergy
Outperform (16E TP Bt30.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt30.75
Energy & Utilities May 10, 2016
Beat forecast / Below forecast / In line
Robust 1Q16 NP Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.487
1.790
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐7.9%
‐2.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
GPSC.BK/GPSC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,498.30
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
46.00/1,311.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.56
52 week High / Low (Bt)
31.00/21.40
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
6,497.00
NVDR (%)
0.46
Estimated free float (%)
24.91
Beta
0.85
URL CGR
www.gpscgroup.com ‐
Anti‐corruption
Level 3B (Established)
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
Good earnings momentum; potential upside risk on capacity expansion The company’s earnings momentum remains strong, with upside risk to our 2016E NP forecast and continuing good earnings development with the peak year expected in 2019E (~17% CAGR to Bt3.6bn in the year), underpinned by the capacity expansion in the pipeline (579MW during 2016‐19E to reach 1,917MW in 2019E). Moreover, the company’s capacity additions are on the upside with Myanmar‐exposure power projects as the major driver, possibly enabling it to hit its aggressive 2,800MW target in 2019E (with the three Myanmar gas‐fired and coal‐ fired projects in the process of MOA negotiations) and supporting its long‐term earnings base. Thus, we reaffirm our “Outperform” rating. Delivered strong 1Q16 NP of Bt871mn The company reported 1Q16 NP of Bt871mn (+64% YoY, +160% QoQ) and core profit of Bt862mn (+65% YoY, +165% QoQ), thanks to the higher sales volume of both electricity and steam from new customers and the optimization of the Rayong Central Utility plants’ production process. This pushed the gross profit margin up to a record‐high 16% in 1Q16 (vs. 10.5% in 1Q15 and 9.4% in 4Q15). While, the dividend income from Ratchaburi Power Co., Ltd. (RPCL) totaled Bt180mn in the quarter. Larger electricity volume and higher GPM in 1Q16 A good performance was seen at major plants, with the Sriracha Power Plant delivering higher electricity volume dispatched by EGAT to 605GWh (+14% QoQ) and Rayong Central Utility Plants 1‐3 (CUP1‐3) marking higher electricity volume and steam volume to 573GWh (+6% YoY, +16% QoQ) and 1,320k tons (+7% YoY, +10% QoQ), respectively; moreover, the company saw a first full‐quarter contribution from IRPC‐CP Phase 1 with larger electricity volume to 88GWh (+87% QoQ), along with a record‐high GPM to 16.1% in the quarter following plant optimization at CUP1‐3. 2016E earnings forecast has upside risk The major drivers for 2016E earnings include the full‐year contribution of IRPC‐CP Phase I and the first contribution of Nava Nakorn Electricity Generating (NNEG) by mid‐2016E, as well as the higher steam sales following the start‐up of PTTGC’s Phenol II project in 2Q16E. However, the robust 1Q16 NP, representing 42% of our full‐year forecast, has created upside risk to our full‐year NP forecast of Bt2.1bn, with the stronger‐than‐expected GPM as the key driver. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) – weighted EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 23,755 1,581 1.41 6.56 0.10 22.50 2014 21.86 16.07 1.37 0.3% 6.4% 41.1%
2015 22,543 1,906 1.40 (0.20) 0.95 24.03 2015 21.91 17.96 1.28 3.1% 6.2% 12.3%
2016E 25,962 2,056 1.37 (2.23) 0.95 24.38 2016E 22.41 28.23 1.26 3.1% 5.7% 101.8%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2017E 31,139 2,603 1.74 26.59 1.04 25.16 2017E 17.70 18.31 1.22 3.4% 7.0% 95.2%
2018E 33,973 2,806 1.87 7.81 1.12 26.00 2018E 16.42 17.51 1.18 3.7% 7.3% 89.8%
Figure 1: GPSC’s 1Q16 earnings results
Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
1Q15 6,451 678 801 (103) 22 (20) 7 ‐ 84 (0) 531 524 0.47 10.5 12.4 8.2 1.3 5.3 0.5 23.0 8.2
4Q15 4,829 453 555 (99) 73 (10) 10 ‐ 114 (18) 335 325 0.11 9.4 11.5 6.9 3.6 2.7 0.4 24.0 3.7
1Q16 5,505 885 1,025 (105) 237 (26) 8 ‐ 86 (43) 871 862 0.58 16.1 18.6 15.8 3.6 6.8 0.4 24.6 9.4
% YoY (14.7) 30.5 28.0 1.9 960.5 32.7 12.2 nm 2.9 31,332 63.8 64.6 23.4
% QoQ 14.0 95.4 84.7 6.2 223.2 167.0 (13.4) nm (24.8) 132.9 159.8 165.0 427.3
2015 22,543 2,273 2,764 (394) 478 (90) (46) (79) 339 17 1,906 2,031 1.40 10.1 12.3 8.5 3.6 4.3 0.4 24.0 6.2
2016E 25,962 2,234 2,923 (270) 205 (195) ‐ ‐ 493 29 2,056 2,056 1.37 8.6 11.3 7.9 0.3 6.6 1.1 24.4 5.7
% YoY 15.2 (1.7) 5.7 (31.4) (57.1) 116.7 (100.0) (100.0) 45.5 74.9 7.9 1.3 (2.2)
Source: KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: GPSC’s committed capacity growth in the pipeline Source: The company
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
YTD (% of 16E) 21.2 39.6 35.1 38.8 115.6 13.5 nm nm 17.4 (146.3) 42.3 41.9 42.3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, BIGC, BJC. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
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8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
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Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
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A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
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Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
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1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
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Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
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Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
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624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.