Housing market
Housing market Capital city market report Prepared April 2014 Dr Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
apm.com.au | 1800 817 616 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
Housing market report Housing markets peaking as affordability barriers emerge
National overview Australian housing markets are providing early signs that the recent solid to strong growth in buyer activity and house prices may have peaked. Although performances between markets and sub-markets are mixed, generally prices growth is lower than that recorded ove recent quarters. The impact of historically low interest rates is now being offset by the strongest annual growth in house prices in four years for all capitals. As a consequence, the relatively high housing affordability that released pent-up demand is now declining which will likely provide a moderating effect on buyer activity through the remainder of 2014.
The Reserve Bank decided, as expected, to leave interest rates at the current settings again this month, as signs continue to emerge of an improving economy. The national seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 5.8 percent over March, reversing the recent rising trend of the past four months. Although economic activity is showing early and gradual signs of improvement, performances are mixed between state economies and as a consequence official rates are set to remain on hold for the foreseeable future.
Yearly median price growth, Top 10, Dec Qtr ‘13
Median prices, national $600k
16.2%
Sydney Houses
Houses
12.5%
Melbourne Houses
11.6%
Sydney Units
$500k
10.5%
Darwin Units
10.1%
Perth Houses
Units
6.4%
Perth Units
5.8%
Melbourne Units
$400k
4.5%
Brisbane Houses Adelaide Houses
Change since last month
3.2%
2.7%
p
4.5%
p
0.9%
p
1.8%
p
3.7%
q
-3.6%
p
2.3%
p
2.3%
p
1.2%
q -10.4%
Feb 14
Aug 13
Feb 13
Aug 12
Feb 12
Aug 11
Feb 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Aug 07
Feb 07
Aug 06
$300k
Darwin Houses
3.4%
p
source: APM source: APM
Median prices: 3 months to end January 2014
Houses
Units Feb 2014
Quarterly change
Yearly change
Feb 2014
Quarterly change
Yearly change
Sydney
$777,108
2.3%
17.5%
$540,078
1.2%
11.3%
Melbourne
$599,877
1.1%
11.9%
$406,654
-2.1%
3.5%
Brisbane
$463,748
1.0%
5.6%
$367,073
2.6%
1.8%
Adelaide
$453,535
1.5%
4.3%
$281,771
-1.4%
0.6%
Perth
$608,241
0.0%
8.1%
$400,546
-0.9%
6.7%
Canberra
$551,024
-1.8%
-2.3%
$405,400
-2.0%
-1.2%
Gold Coast
$490,000
1.4%
2.1%
$350,000
0.0%
0.6%
National
$610,770
1.4%
11.5%
$454,310
0.3%
7.4%
National | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
2
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Housing market report Sydney
Quick stats
Sydney remains the standout performer of all capital city markets, although signs are emerging of a tapering in activity.
Auction clearance rate
Auction clearance rates have exceeded 80 percent on every weekend since the auction season resumed in February. However, recent results have indicated a slightly weakening trend, reflecting the impact of record high auction listing numbers on the market over the past month. Auction performances remain reasonably consistent between regions, although recent indications that the budget market may be weakening are being offset by a strengthening of the prestige market.
Mar 2014
75% 53 Mar 2014
80%
$800k
76 Long-term trend
4.7%
5.3%
5.9 %
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Stock on market
25k
Houses
Mar 2014
$700k
70%
71 12 months ago
Average discount
First home buyers remained sidelined in the market, with the proportion of this buyer group in the New South Wales market at near record lows. By contrast, investors in New South Wales have surged to an all-time high, and currently accounting for 57 percent of market activity. Median prices, Sydney
62% Long-term trend
Average days on market
The local economy continues to improve, with the latest March unemployment rate for New South Wales falling sharply to 5.3 percent.
Auction clearance rates, Sydney*
72% 12 months ago
-3.7% Change 12 months ago
$600k
Units
60%
-14.8 % Change long-term trend
$500k 50%
Inner West QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +21.6% CanBankstown QoQ: +0.7% YoY: +16.0% South West QoQ: +4.1% YoY: +13.7%
Feb 14
Feb 13
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses) West QoQ: +2.2% YoY: +14.6%
Aug 13
Feb 12
* January has been excluded due to low number of auctions
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Aug 07
$300k
Aug 06
Mar 14
Mar 13
Sep 13
Mar 12
Sep 12
Mar 11
Sep 11
Mar 10
Sep 10
Mar 09
Sep 09
Mar 08
Sep 08
Mar 07
Sep 07
Sep 06
40%
$400k
Median price change by region (units) Upper North QoQ: +0.9% YoY: +21.1% Northern Beaches QoQ: +2.6% YoY: +13.2% Lower North QoQ: +3.5% YoY: +21.9% City & East QoQ: -5.0% YoY: +12.5% South QoQ: +0.4% YoY: +16.0%
West QoQ: -0.4% YoY: +9.1%
Inner West QoQ: +0.8% YoY: +10.8% CanBankstown QoQ: +1.3% YoY: +12.1% South West QoQ: +1.4% YoY: +11.5%
Upper North QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +10.4% Northern Beaches QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +7.1% Lower North QoQ: +0.7% YoY: +16.6% City & East QoQ: -3.3% YoY: +8.9% South QoQ: -2.3% YoY: +7.7%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Sydney | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Melbourne
Quick stats
The Melbourne housing market is showing early signs of weakening, with the weekend auction clearance rate trend clearly falling over the past month. Although the rate has remained reasonably solid above 70 percent, the market remains patchy.
Auction clearance rate
Strong performances from the outer east suburbs are continuing and are being supported to a degree by the inner bayside and inner east prestige regions – however other regional markets are steady at best. Similar to Sydney, the Melbourne auction market has been characterised by a surge in listings, which may be responsible for a recent weakening in clearance rates. The ABS reported that the value of loans approved over February in Victoria fell by 1.6 percent over the month – another indication of market weakening. The number of owner-occupied dwelling sales financed over February also fell down by 3.4 percent to the lowest total since February 2013.
Auction clearance rates, Melbourne
Median prices, Melbourne
90%
$600k
80%
70 %
66 %
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Average days on market
82
91
78
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Average discount
The local economy remains an impediment to continuing solid housing market activity with the Melbourne unemployment rate remaining steady at 7.3 percent over February - the highest rate since 1999. *
70% Mar 2014
5.7%
6.3%
6.5 %
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Stock on market
45k
7.5 %
26.3%
Mar 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Houses
$500k
70%
Units
$400k 60%
West QoQ: +1.6% YoY: +6.5% Inner QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +11.3% Inner South QoQ: -2.2% YoY: +16.7%
Feb 14
Feb 13
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses) North QoQ: +0.2% YoY: +7.4%
Aug 13
Feb 12
* January has been excluded due to low number of auctions
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
$200k
Aug 07
Mar 14
Mar 13
Sep 13
Mar 12
Sep 12
Mar 11
Sep 11
Mar 10
Sep 10
Mar 09
Sep 09
Mar 08
Sep 08
Mar 07
Sep 07
Sep 06
40%
Aug 06
$300k
50%
Median price change by region (units) North East QoQ: -0.7% YoY: +10.9% Inner East QoQ: -3.8% YoY: +12.1% Outer East QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +15.8% South East QoQ: +1.9% YoY: +7.1%
North QoQ: +1.3% YoY: +3.8% West QoQ: -3.8% YoY: +0.1% Inner QoQ: -3.8% YoY: -1.0% Inner South QoQ: -4.7% YoY: +11.2%
North East QoQ: -2.6% YoY: +6.8% Inner East QoQ: -0.4% YoY: +7.2% Outer East QoQ: -8.7% YoY: +6.6% South East QoQ: 0.0% YoY: 0.0%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Melbourne | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
4
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Housing market report Quick stats
Brisbane
Auction clearance rate
Expectations remain that the Brisbane housing market will continue its steady revival through 2014 as the local economy improves. Recent data supports this with the median house price over the February quarter rising by 1 percent for an increase of 5.6 percent over the year.
49% Mar 2014
ABS loan data also supports the revival with the number of home loans approved for owner-occupier sales in Queensland rising by 9.9 percent over the month of February. Investor activity is also on the rise with a big jump of 22.1 percent in loans to this group over the month.
99 Mar 2014
8
7.3
7.4
7 6
Median prices, Brisbane
Units
$400k
5 3.6
4
3.9
$300k
5.3%
6.2%
7.5 %
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
27k
4.4%
8.5 %
Mar 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Aug 07
$200k
1
Aug 06
3 2
103
Long-term trend
Stock on market
6.8
6.3
5.8
Houses
7.9
7.5
104
12 months ago
Average discount
$500k
9
36 %
Long-term trend
Average days on market
The local economy however remains subdued with the latest unemployment rate for Brisbane spiking to a concerning 7.4 percent over February. Unemployment rate by city, Feb 2014
46 %
12 months ago
Nat
Hob
Dar
Can
Per
Ade
Bris
Melb
Syd
0
source: ABS
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses) Caboolture QoQ: +1.4% YoY: +2.9% Pine Rivers QoQ: +2.3% YoY: +2.4% NW Outer QoQ: +2.4% YoY: +6.7% SE Outer QoQ: +0.1% YoY: +6.5% Ipswich QoQ: -0.9% YoY: 0.0%
Median price change by region (units) NW Inner QoQ: -1.6% YoY: +6.4%
Caboolture QoQ: +4.6% YoY: -3.4%
Inner QoQ: -3.3% YoY: +7.7%
Pine Rivers QoQ: -12.5% YoY: -10.1%
SE Inner QoQ: +1.4% YoY: +10.0%
NW Outer QoQ: +1.3% YoY: +1.0%
SE Inner QoQ: -1.2% YoY: +7.8%
SE Outer QoQ: -3.7% YoY: -6.2%
Redland QoQ: -10.4% YoY: +8.3%
Ipswich QoQ: -4.2% YoY: -16.3%
Logan QoQ: -10.3% YoY: -25.9%
Redland QoQ: +2.1% YoY: +1.5% Logan QoQ: -1.4% YoY: +2.0%
NW Inner QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +0.6%
Inner QoQ: -0.5% YoY: +8.4%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Brisbane | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Adelaide
Average days on market
Adelaide’s median house price increased by an encouraging 1.5 percent over the three months ending February, with the market continuing to record steady prices growth. However, home loan activity weakened over February with the ABS reporting a fall in South Australia loan activity for dwellings of 1.4 percent over the month.
110 Mar 2014
The economy remains a concern with ABS unemployment rising sharply to 7.5 percent over February – the highest of all the mainland capitals. Adelaide unemployment rate
Median prices, Adelaide
10%
$500k
7%
Units
$300k
6% 5%
$200k
4%
6.5 %
6.7%
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
11k
-1.4%
3.5 %
Mar 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Aug 07
Feb 14
Nov 13
Aug 13
May 13
Feb 13
Nov 12
Aug 12
May 12
Feb 12
Nov 11
Aug 11
$100k
Aug 06
3% 2%
5.9%
Stock on market
$400k
8%
119
Long-term trend
Average discount
Houses
9%
129
12 months ago
source: APM
source: ABS
Median price change by region (houses)
Median price change by region (units)
North QoQ: +0.3% YoY: 0.0%
North QoQ: -2.9% YoY: -1.3%
West QoQ: +0.5% YoY: +4.2%
West QoQ: +1.9% YoY: -5.3%
East QoQ: +3.1% YoY: +4.9%
East QoQ: 0.0% YoY: -0.5%
South QoQ: +1.6% YoY: +2.6%
South QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +2.6%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Adelaide | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Perth Perth house prices were flat over the February quarter, but were 8 percent higher than over the same period last year. Housing market activity in the WA capital has waned over recent months, with the ABS reporting home loan activity down by 1.8 percent over February.
Average days on market
First home buyers remained active in Western Australia, with a rise of 4.5 percent in ABS home loans for this group of over February. Western Australia has the highest local market share for first home buyers of all the states, at 21.9 percent.
91
87
96
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
A flattening of housing market activity may be a response to the sharp deterioration in economic activity over recent months in Perth. The local unemployment rate increased to 6.3 percent over February, although the ABS has reported a significant improvement in the Western Australian unemployment rate to 4.9 percent over March. Median weekly asking rent, houses December 2013
Average discount
5.6%
5.5 %
6.8 %
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Median prices, Perth Stock on market
$550
$700k
$500
Perth
$450
National
Houses
$600k $500k
24k
5.6 %
10.2%
Mar 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Units
$400k $400
North QoQ: +1.8% YoY: +9.8%
South West QoQ: +1.0% YoY: +11.8%
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses)
Central QoQ: -1.1% YoY: +3.0%
Aug 10
Feb 09
source: APM
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Aug 07
Aug 06
$200k
Dec 13
Jun 13
Sep 13
Mar 13
Dec 12
Jun 12
Sep 12
Mar 12
Dec 11
Jun 11
Sep 11
Mar 11
Dec 10
Jun 10
Sep 10
Mar 10
Dec 09
Sep 09
$300k $350
East QoQ: 3.0% YoY: +10.6%
South East QoQ: +0.3% YoY: +11.1%
Median price change by region (units) North QoQ: +6.3% YoY: +14.9% Central QoQ: +6.9% YoY: +10.7%
South West QoQ: -0.2% YoY: +13.8%
East QoQ: +4.8% YoY: +5.6%
South East QoQ: -5.2% YoY: -1.6%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014.
Perth | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Canberra
Average days on market
After showing some signs of improvement late last year, the Canberra market has deteriorated over February with house prices falling by 1.8 percent – the only negative result of all the capitals. With the prospect of more job-shedding in the public service from the upcoming federal budget, buyer confidence is set to remain subdued in Canberra. Canberra unemployment rate
85
73
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Median prices, Canberra
6.0%
Average discount
$600k
5.5%
Houses
5.0%
$500k
4.5%
Units
4.0% 3.5%
$400k
3.0% 2.5%
4.5%
4.8 %
4.7%
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
$300k
2.0%
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses) Belconnen QoQ: +2.6% YoY: +4.2%
Aug 11
Feb 10
source: ABS
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Stock on market Aug 07
$200k
Aug 06
Jan 14
Jul 13
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jul 11
Jan 11
Jul 10
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jan 09
1.5% 1.0%
73
Tuggeranong QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +4.2%
11.5 %
51.2%
Mar 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Median price change by region (units) Gungahlin QoQ: -3.9% YoY: +3.1%
Belconnen QoQ: -10.2% YoY: -9.6%
South QoQ: +7.3% YoY: +11.0%
Gungahlin QoQ: -6.4% YoY: +4.6% North QoQ: -0.7% YoY: +1.7%
North QoQ: +3.9% YoY: +7.5% Woden Valley QoQ: +0.3% YoY: +1.1%
2.2k
Woden Valley QoQ: -6.5% YoY: +7.5%
South QoQ: +3.1% YoY: -2.7%
Tuggeranong QoQ: +1.4% YoY: -0.3%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Canberra | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Gold Coast
Average days on market
The Gold Coast continues to show solid signs of improvement, with house prices increasing by 1.4 percent over the February quarter. The local economy has an emerging positive factor in market revival lately, although the latest ABS unemployment rate of 7.2 percent over February is a significant deterioration from recent good results. Average days on market, Gold Coast
Median prices, Gold Coast
200
$600k
Houses
$500k
140 $400k
Units
120 100
142
12 months ago
Long-term trend
7.1%
8.4%
9.7%
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
$300k
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Stock on market Aug 07
$200k
Aug 06
Mar 14
Mar 13
Sep 13
Mar 12
Sep 12
Mar 11
Sep 11
Mar 10
Sep 10
Mar 09
Sep 09
Mar 08
Sep 08
Mar 07
Sep 07
Sep 06
80 60
157
Mar 2014
Average discount
180 160
136
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses)
Gold Coast West QoQ: +3.6% YoY: +3.6%
10k
0.6 %
-11.3%
Mar 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Median price change by region (units)
Gold Coast West QoQ: -1.6% YoY: +0.6%
Gold Coast East QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +3.8%
Gold Coast East QoQ: +1.0% YoY: 0.0%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of December 2013.
Gold Coast | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors Copyright Australian Property Monitors. Any reproduction of or reference to any part of this report must attribute Australian Property Monitors as the source.
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Housing market report Hobart
Darwin
Hobart house prices were up by 1.9 percent over February as that city continues on its road to recovery. Prices have now increased by 5.8 percent over the past year as confidence slowly returns to the market - despite the highest ABS unemployment rate of all capitals at 7.9 percent.
A solid local economic performance continues to drive Darwin house prices with an increase of 2.6 percent recorded over the February quarter – the best performance of all the capitals. Darwin also has the the lowest unemployment rate of all the capitals, at just 3.3 percent over February according to the ABS.
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Hobart and Darwin | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
10
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apm.com.au | 1800 817 616 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
Housing market report Housing markets peaking as affordability barriers emerge
National overview Australian housing markets are providing early signs that the recent solid to strong growth in buyer activity and house prices may have peaked. Although performances between markets and sub-markets are mixed, generally prices growth is lower than that recorded ove recent quarters. The impact of historically low interest rates is now being offset by the strongest annual growth in house prices in four years for all capitals. As a consequence, the relatively high housing affordability that released pent-up demand is now declining which will likely provide a moderating effect on buyer activity through the remainder of 2014.
The Reserve Bank decided, as expected, to leave interest rates at the current settings again this month, as signs continue to emerge of an improving economy. The national seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 5.8 percent over March, reversing the recent rising trend of the past four months. Although economic activity is showing early and gradual signs of improvement, performances are mixed between state economies and as a consequence official rates are set to remain on hold for the foreseeable future.
Yearly median price growth, Top 10, Dec Qtr ‘13
Median prices, national $600k
16.2%
Sydney Houses
Houses
12.5%
Melbourne Houses
11.6%
Sydney Units
$500k
10.5%
Darwin Units
10.1%
Perth Houses
Units
6.4%
Perth Units
5.8%
Melbourne Units
$400k
4.5%
Brisbane Houses Adelaide Houses
Change since last month
3.2%
2.7%
p
4.5%
p
0.9%
p
1.8%
p
3.7%
q
-3.6%
p
2.3%
p
2.3%
p
1.2%
q -10.4%
Feb 14
Aug 13
Feb 13
Aug 12
Feb 12
Aug 11
Feb 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Aug 07
Feb 07
Aug 06
$300k
Darwin Houses
3.4%
p
source: APM source: APM
Median prices: 3 months to end January 2014
Houses
Units Feb 2014
Quarterly change
Yearly change
Feb 2014
Quarterly change
Yearly change
Sydney
$777,108
2.3%
17.5%
$540,078
1.2%
11.3%
Melbourne
$599,877
1.1%
11.9%
$406,654
-2.1%
3.5%
Brisbane
$463,748
1.0%
5.6%
$367,073
2.6%
1.8%
Adelaide
$453,535
1.5%
4.3%
$281,771
-1.4%
0.6%
Perth
$608,241
0.0%
8.1%
$400,546
-0.9%
6.7%
Canberra
$551,024
-1.8%
-2.3%
$405,400
-2.0%
-1.2%
Gold Coast
$490,000
1.4%
2.1%
$350,000
0.0%
0.6%
National
$610,770
1.4%
11.5%
$454,310
0.3%
7.4%
National | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Sydney
Quick stats
Sydney remains the standout performer of all capital city markets, although signs are emerging of a tapering in activity.
Auction clearance rate
Auction clearance rates have exceeded 80 percent on every weekend since the auction season resumed in February. However, recent results have indicated a slightly weakening trend, reflecting the impact of record high auction listing numbers on the market over the past month. Auction performances remain reasonably consistent between regions, although recent indications that the budget market may be weakening are being offset by a strengthening of the prestige market.
Mar 2014
75% 53 Mar 2014
80%
$800k
76 Long-term trend
4.7%
5.3%
5.9 %
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Stock on market
25k
Houses
Mar 2014
$700k
70%
71 12 months ago
Average discount
First home buyers remained sidelined in the market, with the proportion of this buyer group in the New South Wales market at near record lows. By contrast, investors in New South Wales have surged to an all-time high, and currently accounting for 57 percent of market activity. Median prices, Sydney
62% Long-term trend
Average days on market
The local economy continues to improve, with the latest March unemployment rate for New South Wales falling sharply to 5.3 percent.
Auction clearance rates, Sydney*
72% 12 months ago
-3.7% Change 12 months ago
$600k
Units
60%
-14.8 % Change long-term trend
$500k 50%
Inner West QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +21.6% CanBankstown QoQ: +0.7% YoY: +16.0% South West QoQ: +4.1% YoY: +13.7%
Feb 14
Feb 13
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses) West QoQ: +2.2% YoY: +14.6%
Aug 13
Feb 12
* January has been excluded due to low number of auctions
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Aug 07
$300k
Aug 06
Mar 14
Mar 13
Sep 13
Mar 12
Sep 12
Mar 11
Sep 11
Mar 10
Sep 10
Mar 09
Sep 09
Mar 08
Sep 08
Mar 07
Sep 07
Sep 06
40%
$400k
Median price change by region (units) Upper North QoQ: +0.9% YoY: +21.1% Northern Beaches QoQ: +2.6% YoY: +13.2% Lower North QoQ: +3.5% YoY: +21.9% City & East QoQ: -5.0% YoY: +12.5% South QoQ: +0.4% YoY: +16.0%
West QoQ: -0.4% YoY: +9.1%
Inner West QoQ: +0.8% YoY: +10.8% CanBankstown QoQ: +1.3% YoY: +12.1% South West QoQ: +1.4% YoY: +11.5%
Upper North QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +10.4% Northern Beaches QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +7.1% Lower North QoQ: +0.7% YoY: +16.6% City & East QoQ: -3.3% YoY: +8.9% South QoQ: -2.3% YoY: +7.7%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Sydney | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Melbourne
Quick stats
The Melbourne housing market is showing early signs of weakening, with the weekend auction clearance rate trend clearly falling over the past month. Although the rate has remained reasonably solid above 70 percent, the market remains patchy.
Auction clearance rate
Strong performances from the outer east suburbs are continuing and are being supported to a degree by the inner bayside and inner east prestige regions – however other regional markets are steady at best. Similar to Sydney, the Melbourne auction market has been characterised by a surge in listings, which may be responsible for a recent weakening in clearance rates. The ABS reported that the value of loans approved over February in Victoria fell by 1.6 percent over the month – another indication of market weakening. The number of owner-occupied dwelling sales financed over February also fell down by 3.4 percent to the lowest total since February 2013.
Auction clearance rates, Melbourne
Median prices, Melbourne
90%
$600k
80%
70 %
66 %
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Average days on market
82
91
78
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Average discount
The local economy remains an impediment to continuing solid housing market activity with the Melbourne unemployment rate remaining steady at 7.3 percent over February - the highest rate since 1999. *
70% Mar 2014
5.7%
6.3%
6.5 %
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Stock on market
45k
7.5 %
26.3%
Mar 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Houses
$500k
70%
Units
$400k 60%
West QoQ: +1.6% YoY: +6.5% Inner QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +11.3% Inner South QoQ: -2.2% YoY: +16.7%
Feb 14
Feb 13
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses) North QoQ: +0.2% YoY: +7.4%
Aug 13
Feb 12
* January has been excluded due to low number of auctions
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
$200k
Aug 07
Mar 14
Mar 13
Sep 13
Mar 12
Sep 12
Mar 11
Sep 11
Mar 10
Sep 10
Mar 09
Sep 09
Mar 08
Sep 08
Mar 07
Sep 07
Sep 06
40%
Aug 06
$300k
50%
Median price change by region (units) North East QoQ: -0.7% YoY: +10.9% Inner East QoQ: -3.8% YoY: +12.1% Outer East QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +15.8% South East QoQ: +1.9% YoY: +7.1%
North QoQ: +1.3% YoY: +3.8% West QoQ: -3.8% YoY: +0.1% Inner QoQ: -3.8% YoY: -1.0% Inner South QoQ: -4.7% YoY: +11.2%
North East QoQ: -2.6% YoY: +6.8% Inner East QoQ: -0.4% YoY: +7.2% Outer East QoQ: -8.7% YoY: +6.6% South East QoQ: 0.0% YoY: 0.0%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Melbourne | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Brisbane
Auction clearance rate
Expectations remain that the Brisbane housing market will continue its steady revival through 2014 as the local economy improves. Recent data supports this with the median house price over the February quarter rising by 1 percent for an increase of 5.6 percent over the year.
49% Mar 2014
ABS loan data also supports the revival with the number of home loans approved for owner-occupier sales in Queensland rising by 9.9 percent over the month of February. Investor activity is also on the rise with a big jump of 22.1 percent in loans to this group over the month.
99 Mar 2014
8
7.3
7.4
7 6
Median prices, Brisbane
Units
$400k
5 3.6
4
3.9
$300k
5.3%
6.2%
7.5 %
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
27k
4.4%
8.5 %
Mar 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Aug 07
$200k
1
Aug 06
3 2
103
Long-term trend
Stock on market
6.8
6.3
5.8
Houses
7.9
7.5
104
12 months ago
Average discount
$500k
9
36 %
Long-term trend
Average days on market
The local economy however remains subdued with the latest unemployment rate for Brisbane spiking to a concerning 7.4 percent over February. Unemployment rate by city, Feb 2014
46 %
12 months ago
Nat
Hob
Dar
Can
Per
Ade
Bris
Melb
Syd
0
source: ABS
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses) Caboolture QoQ: +1.4% YoY: +2.9% Pine Rivers QoQ: +2.3% YoY: +2.4% NW Outer QoQ: +2.4% YoY: +6.7% SE Outer QoQ: +0.1% YoY: +6.5% Ipswich QoQ: -0.9% YoY: 0.0%
Median price change by region (units) NW Inner QoQ: -1.6% YoY: +6.4%
Caboolture QoQ: +4.6% YoY: -3.4%
Inner QoQ: -3.3% YoY: +7.7%
Pine Rivers QoQ: -12.5% YoY: -10.1%
SE Inner QoQ: +1.4% YoY: +10.0%
NW Outer QoQ: +1.3% YoY: +1.0%
SE Inner QoQ: -1.2% YoY: +7.8%
SE Outer QoQ: -3.7% YoY: -6.2%
Redland QoQ: -10.4% YoY: +8.3%
Ipswich QoQ: -4.2% YoY: -16.3%
Logan QoQ: -10.3% YoY: -25.9%
Redland QoQ: +2.1% YoY: +1.5% Logan QoQ: -1.4% YoY: +2.0%
NW Inner QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +0.6%
Inner QoQ: -0.5% YoY: +8.4%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Brisbane | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Adelaide
Average days on market
Adelaide’s median house price increased by an encouraging 1.5 percent over the three months ending February, with the market continuing to record steady prices growth. However, home loan activity weakened over February with the ABS reporting a fall in South Australia loan activity for dwellings of 1.4 percent over the month.
110 Mar 2014
The economy remains a concern with ABS unemployment rising sharply to 7.5 percent over February – the highest of all the mainland capitals. Adelaide unemployment rate
Median prices, Adelaide
10%
$500k
7%
Units
$300k
6% 5%
$200k
4%
6.5 %
6.7%
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
11k
-1.4%
3.5 %
Mar 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Aug 07
Feb 14
Nov 13
Aug 13
May 13
Feb 13
Nov 12
Aug 12
May 12
Feb 12
Nov 11
Aug 11
$100k
Aug 06
3% 2%
5.9%
Stock on market
$400k
8%
119
Long-term trend
Average discount
Houses
9%
129
12 months ago
source: APM
source: ABS
Median price change by region (houses)
Median price change by region (units)
North QoQ: +0.3% YoY: 0.0%
North QoQ: -2.9% YoY: -1.3%
West QoQ: +0.5% YoY: +4.2%
West QoQ: +1.9% YoY: -5.3%
East QoQ: +3.1% YoY: +4.9%
East QoQ: 0.0% YoY: -0.5%
South QoQ: +1.6% YoY: +2.6%
South QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +2.6%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Adelaide | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Perth Perth house prices were flat over the February quarter, but were 8 percent higher than over the same period last year. Housing market activity in the WA capital has waned over recent months, with the ABS reporting home loan activity down by 1.8 percent over February.
Average days on market
First home buyers remained active in Western Australia, with a rise of 4.5 percent in ABS home loans for this group of over February. Western Australia has the highest local market share for first home buyers of all the states, at 21.9 percent.
91
87
96
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
A flattening of housing market activity may be a response to the sharp deterioration in economic activity over recent months in Perth. The local unemployment rate increased to 6.3 percent over February, although the ABS has reported a significant improvement in the Western Australian unemployment rate to 4.9 percent over March. Median weekly asking rent, houses December 2013
Average discount
5.6%
5.5 %
6.8 %
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Median prices, Perth Stock on market
$550
$700k
$500
Perth
$450
National
Houses
$600k $500k
24k
5.6 %
10.2%
Mar 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Units
$400k $400
North QoQ: +1.8% YoY: +9.8%
South West QoQ: +1.0% YoY: +11.8%
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses)
Central QoQ: -1.1% YoY: +3.0%
Aug 10
Feb 09
source: APM
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Aug 07
Aug 06
$200k
Dec 13
Jun 13
Sep 13
Mar 13
Dec 12
Jun 12
Sep 12
Mar 12
Dec 11
Jun 11
Sep 11
Mar 11
Dec 10
Jun 10
Sep 10
Mar 10
Dec 09
Sep 09
$300k $350
East QoQ: 3.0% YoY: +10.6%
South East QoQ: +0.3% YoY: +11.1%
Median price change by region (units) North QoQ: +6.3% YoY: +14.9% Central QoQ: +6.9% YoY: +10.7%
South West QoQ: -0.2% YoY: +13.8%
East QoQ: +4.8% YoY: +5.6%
South East QoQ: -5.2% YoY: -1.6%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014.
Perth | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Canberra
Average days on market
After showing some signs of improvement late last year, the Canberra market has deteriorated over February with house prices falling by 1.8 percent – the only negative result of all the capitals. With the prospect of more job-shedding in the public service from the upcoming federal budget, buyer confidence is set to remain subdued in Canberra. Canberra unemployment rate
85
73
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Median prices, Canberra
6.0%
Average discount
$600k
5.5%
Houses
5.0%
$500k
4.5%
Units
4.0% 3.5%
$400k
3.0% 2.5%
4.5%
4.8 %
4.7%
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
$300k
2.0%
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses) Belconnen QoQ: +2.6% YoY: +4.2%
Aug 11
Feb 10
source: ABS
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Stock on market Aug 07
$200k
Aug 06
Jan 14
Jul 13
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jul 11
Jan 11
Jul 10
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jan 09
1.5% 1.0%
73
Tuggeranong QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +4.2%
11.5 %
51.2%
Mar 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Median price change by region (units) Gungahlin QoQ: -3.9% YoY: +3.1%
Belconnen QoQ: -10.2% YoY: -9.6%
South QoQ: +7.3% YoY: +11.0%
Gungahlin QoQ: -6.4% YoY: +4.6% North QoQ: -0.7% YoY: +1.7%
North QoQ: +3.9% YoY: +7.5% Woden Valley QoQ: +0.3% YoY: +1.1%
2.2k
Woden Valley QoQ: -6.5% YoY: +7.5%
South QoQ: +3.1% YoY: -2.7%
Tuggeranong QoQ: +1.4% YoY: -0.3%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Canberra | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Gold Coast
Average days on market
The Gold Coast continues to show solid signs of improvement, with house prices increasing by 1.4 percent over the February quarter. The local economy has an emerging positive factor in market revival lately, although the latest ABS unemployment rate of 7.2 percent over February is a significant deterioration from recent good results. Average days on market, Gold Coast
Median prices, Gold Coast
200
$600k
Houses
$500k
140 $400k
Units
120 100
142
12 months ago
Long-term trend
7.1%
8.4%
9.7%
Mar 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
$300k
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Stock on market Aug 07
$200k
Aug 06
Mar 14
Mar 13
Sep 13
Mar 12
Sep 12
Mar 11
Sep 11
Mar 10
Sep 10
Mar 09
Sep 09
Mar 08
Sep 08
Mar 07
Sep 07
Sep 06
80 60
157
Mar 2014
Average discount
180 160
136
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses)
Gold Coast West QoQ: +3.6% YoY: +3.6%
10k
0.6 %
-11.3%
Mar 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Median price change by region (units)
Gold Coast West QoQ: -1.6% YoY: +0.6%
Gold Coast East QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +3.8%
Gold Coast East QoQ: +1.0% YoY: 0.0%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of December 2013.
Gold Coast | April 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors Copyright Australian Property Monitors. Any reproduction of or reference to any part of this report must attribute Australian Property Monitors as the source.
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Housing market report Hobart
Darwin
Hobart house prices were up by 1.9 percent over February as that city continues on its road to recovery. Prices have now increased by 5.8 percent over the past year as confidence slowly returns to the market - despite the highest ABS unemployment rate of all capitals at 7.9 percent.
A solid local economic performance continues to drive Darwin house prices with an increase of 2.6 percent recorded over the February quarter – the best performance of all the capitals. Darwin also has the the lowest unemployment rate of all the capitals, at just 3.3 percent over February according to the ABS.
Disclaimers APM Disclaimer Published and compiled by Australian Property Monitors ACN 061438006. Level 2, 1 Darling Island Road Pyrmont NSW 2009. In compiling this publication, the Publisher relies upon information supplied by a number of external sources. The publication is supplied on the basis that while the Publisher believes all the information in it will be correct at the time of publication, it does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to the Publisher for the supply of such information. New South Wales Land and Property Information Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information. Australian Property Monitors Pty Ltd is authorised as a Sales Information Provider by the Land and Property Information. State of Victoria To the extent that this report has been developed using information owned by the State of Victoria, the State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied. State of Queensland Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Environment and Resource Management) [2013]. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws. Government of the State of South Australia
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Hobart and Darwin | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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