Increased employment and capacity utilization AWS
CNI Indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 11 • November 2017
25 YEARS
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Increased employment and capacity utilization In November, the employment and capacity utilization indicators stood out positively. Employment posted growth of 0.3% in the month, a monthly growth rate that, albeit still low, is the highest recorded since February 2014, when jobs rose by 0.7%. The capacity utilization rate in turn hit the mark of 78.3% – the last time the index reached 78% was in February 2016. Hours worked are also up. On the other hand, sales, total payroll and real earnings edged down in the month.
Over the last few months, the indices have been alternating between positive and negative results and are thus yet to embark on a sustained upward trend. As a result, with only one month left until all 2017 results are available, the year-to-date figure for 2017 shows a decline in employment, hours worked, real total payroll and real earnings on a year-over-year basis. On the same comparison basis, real average earnings are up as inflation continues to fall. The average capacity utilization rate in the year to November 2017 is up by 0.3 percentage points from the average figure for the corresponding period in 2016.
Industrial indicators - November 2017 Seasonally adjusted change from October 2017
Ç
Indústrias Diversas
EMPLOYMENT Up by 0.3%
Ç
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Up by 0.6%
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Down by 0.8%
Ç
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Up by 0.6 percentage point
Ç
Indústria de Energia
Ç Ç
da Construção
REAL SALES Down by 0.6%
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Down by 0.5%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 11 • November 2017
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Despite fluctuations, sales are still trending upward
130
120
Real sales in industry edged down by 0.6% in November after growing for two consecutive months. Despite the month-over-month decline, sales are up by 5.3% in November 2017 as compared to the same month last year. The January-November 2017 period saw a 0.7% decline in industrial sales from the figure recorded in the same period last year.
110
100
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Nov/16
May/17
Nov/17
Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Employment begins to recover
114
110 106
102 98
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Nov/16
May/17
Nov/17
Industrial jobs rose by 0.3% between October and November on a seasonally adjusted basis. Employment has not dropped in three months and the monthly growth rate is the highest since February 2014, when jobs grew by 0.7%. Despite the month’s increase, employment is down by 0.7% in November 2017 on a year-over-year basis. In the year to November 2017, the indicator is 2.9% lower than that recorded during the same period last year.
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Hours worked reverse previous month’s fall
105
100
Hours worked increased by 0.6%, offsetting the decline of the same order observed last month. The indicator is up by 0.4% in November 2017 from the same month the year before, but the year-todate figure shows a 2.3% decline.
95
90 85
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Nov/16
May/17
Nov/17
2
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 11 • November 2017
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Lower total payroll
130
Real total payroll dropped by 0.8% in November in the seasonally adjusted series. In the second half of 2017, total payroll has alternated between negative and positive monthly variations, but the declines have been more pronounced. As a result, total payroll in November 2017 experienced a 0.1% decline as compared to the same month last year, while the year-to-date figure is down by 2.0% from the corresponding period of 2016.
125
120
115
110
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Nov/16
May/17
Nov/17
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Real average earnings also fall
130
Real average earnings are down by 0.5% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis. This result partially offsets the 0.9% increase seen last month. The indicator has alternated between positive and negative changes in recent months. Yet, real average earnings in November 2017 are 0.7% higher than the figure recorded in the same month a year ago, while the indicator is up by 1.0% between January and November 2017 as compared to the corresponding period of 2016.
125
120
115
110
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Nov/16
May/17
Nov/17
Deflator: INPC-IBGE Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
Capacity utilization increases in November
83
78.3%
81
Grande
79
77
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Nov/16
May/17
Nov/17
3
In November, the capacity utilization rate stood at 78.3%, up by 0.6 percentage points on a monthover-month seasonally adjusted basis. The last time the index reached 78% was in February 2016. The indicator for November 2017 is 2.1 percentage points higher than that registered in the same month last year, while the average capacity utilization rate in the year to November 2017 is up by 0.3 percentage points from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2016.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 11 • November 2017
Resume of results - Industrial indicators NOV17/ OCT17
NOV17/ OCT17 DESSAZ.
NOV17/ NOV16
JAN-NOV17/ JAN-NOV16
Real sales1
-3.4
-0.6
5.3
-0.7
Worked hours in production
-1.6
0.6
0.4
-2.3
Employment
-0.3
0.3
-0.7
-2.9
Real total payroll2
5.5
-0.8
-0.1
-2.0
Real average earnings2
5.9
-0.5
0.7
1.0
PERCENTAGE CHANGE
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
NOV17
OCT17
NOV16
Capacity utilization
79.3
79.2
77.2
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
78.3
77.7
76.2
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores industriais novembro/2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.
25 YEARS
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Increased employment and capacity utilization In November, the employment and capacity utilization indicators stood out positively. Employment posted growth of 0.3% in the month, a monthly growth rate that, albeit still low, is the highest recorded since February 2014, when jobs rose by 0.7%. The capacity utilization rate in turn hit the mark of 78.3% – the last time the index reached 78% was in February 2016. Hours worked are also up. On the other hand, sales, total payroll and real earnings edged down in the month.
Over the last few months, the indices have been alternating between positive and negative results and are thus yet to embark on a sustained upward trend. As a result, with only one month left until all 2017 results are available, the year-to-date figure for 2017 shows a decline in employment, hours worked, real total payroll and real earnings on a year-over-year basis. On the same comparison basis, real average earnings are up as inflation continues to fall. The average capacity utilization rate in the year to November 2017 is up by 0.3 percentage points from the average figure for the corresponding period in 2016.
Industrial indicators - November 2017 Seasonally adjusted change from October 2017
Ç
Indústrias Diversas
EMPLOYMENT Up by 0.3%
Ç
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Up by 0.6%
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Down by 0.8%
Ç
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Up by 0.6 percentage point
Ç
Indústria de Energia
Ç Ç
da Construção
REAL SALES Down by 0.6%
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Down by 0.5%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 11 • November 2017
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Despite fluctuations, sales are still trending upward
130
120
Real sales in industry edged down by 0.6% in November after growing for two consecutive months. Despite the month-over-month decline, sales are up by 5.3% in November 2017 as compared to the same month last year. The January-November 2017 period saw a 0.7% decline in industrial sales from the figure recorded in the same period last year.
110
100
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Nov/16
May/17
Nov/17
Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Employment begins to recover
114
110 106
102 98
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Nov/16
May/17
Nov/17
Industrial jobs rose by 0.3% between October and November on a seasonally adjusted basis. Employment has not dropped in three months and the monthly growth rate is the highest since February 2014, when jobs grew by 0.7%. Despite the month’s increase, employment is down by 0.7% in November 2017 on a year-over-year basis. In the year to November 2017, the indicator is 2.9% lower than that recorded during the same period last year.
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Hours worked reverse previous month’s fall
105
100
Hours worked increased by 0.6%, offsetting the decline of the same order observed last month. The indicator is up by 0.4% in November 2017 from the same month the year before, but the year-todate figure shows a 2.3% decline.
95
90 85
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Nov/16
May/17
Nov/17
2
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 11 • November 2017
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Lower total payroll
130
Real total payroll dropped by 0.8% in November in the seasonally adjusted series. In the second half of 2017, total payroll has alternated between negative and positive monthly variations, but the declines have been more pronounced. As a result, total payroll in November 2017 experienced a 0.1% decline as compared to the same month last year, while the year-to-date figure is down by 2.0% from the corresponding period of 2016.
125
120
115
110
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Nov/16
May/17
Nov/17
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Real average earnings also fall
130
Real average earnings are down by 0.5% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis. This result partially offsets the 0.9% increase seen last month. The indicator has alternated between positive and negative changes in recent months. Yet, real average earnings in November 2017 are 0.7% higher than the figure recorded in the same month a year ago, while the indicator is up by 1.0% between January and November 2017 as compared to the corresponding period of 2016.
125
120
115
110
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Nov/16
May/17
Nov/17
Deflator: INPC-IBGE Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
Capacity utilization increases in November
83
78.3%
81
Grande
79
77
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Nov/16
May/17
Nov/17
3
In November, the capacity utilization rate stood at 78.3%, up by 0.6 percentage points on a monthover-month seasonally adjusted basis. The last time the index reached 78% was in February 2016. The indicator for November 2017 is 2.1 percentage points higher than that registered in the same month last year, while the average capacity utilization rate in the year to November 2017 is up by 0.3 percentage points from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2016.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 11 • November 2017
Resume of results - Industrial indicators NOV17/ OCT17
NOV17/ OCT17 DESSAZ.
NOV17/ NOV16
JAN-NOV17/ JAN-NOV16
Real sales1
-3.4
-0.6
5.3
-0.7
Worked hours in production
-1.6
0.6
0.4
-2.3
Employment
-0.3
0.3
-0.7
-2.9
Real total payroll2
5.5
-0.8
-0.1
-2.0
Real average earnings2
5.9
-0.5
0.7
1.0
PERCENTAGE CHANGE
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
NOV17
OCT17
NOV16
Capacity utilization
79.3
79.2
77.2
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
78.3
77.7
76.2
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores industriais novembro/2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.
