Industry Update - Global Alliance Partners
Industry Update March 26, 2014
Banking
Neutral
Feb-14 stats remain weak We maintain our Neutral stance for the Thai banking sector mainly on the weak Thai macro front and modest earnings growth in 2014E for Thai banks. Moreover, the potential for prolonged political unrest could apply some downward pressure on Thai economic growth and banks’ earnings, increasing the likelihood of our worst-case scenario. Our top picks remain KBANK, BBL and TMB. Feb-14 loans were flat again MoM: Moreover, loans for 2M14 were also flat YTD. The flat loans for two consecutive months reflect the weak macro fronts and we expect this trend to continue during 1H14E. The segment that saw some growth YTD was corporate loans for working capital purposes. Meanwhile, SME loans and mortgage loans were quite flat YTD, partly due to seasonality. In contrast, retail loans continued to drop YTD, especially auto loans in both the used and new car segments as well as credit card loans.
Share data SET index
1,354.01
Sector index
491.96
52-week high
619.66
52-week low
427.61
Market capitalization (Bt m)
2,008,174.29
% of market cap
16.72
Avg daily turnover (m shares)
361.76
Beta
1.16
Sector Performance (%) 1M
3M
12M
Absolute
3.86
3.12
-17.28
Relative
-0.17
1.48
-5.34
Loan growth in 2014E likely to weaken YoY: We expect the sector’s loan growth for 14E to weaken YoY at +6% vs. +11% for 2013. We see downside risk for loan growth in some banks, especially banks with higher exposure to consumer loans in the case of prolonged political tension. NIM in 1Q14E likely under pressure on rate cut impact: After two rate cuts (by 25 bps each) on 27 Nov-13 and 12 Jan14, the policy rate stands at 2%. Banks have followed suit by cutting both the MLR and deposit rates; this, coupled with weak loan growth, should put NIM for banks in 1Q14E under pressure despite the fact that they cut their savings rates at the same time. Therefore, we do not expect any exciting story for banks’ earnings in 1Q14E.
Note:
KT•ZMICO
is
a
partnership
between KTB and ZMICO
Greater likelihood of seeing worst-case scenario: The prolonged political tension should add downside risk to our base-case GDP growth forecast of 3-3.4% for 2014E and our net profit growth forecast for the banking sector at +3%. Note that in the worst-case scenario (on the assumption that there will be no government in 2014), we expect GDP growth at 2-2.7% and banks’ net profit growth at +1%. KBANK, BBL and TMB remain our top picks: We still prefer large banks (especially our top picks: KBANK and BBL) to smaller banks over the long term due to greater earnings diversification. For the second-tier pick, we like TMB for its stronger ROE enhancement vs. peers and for the M&A theme in a longer-term perspective. Note that we switch our rating for TCAP to Sell into strength from Trading Buy due to narrow upside potential. We also raised our 14 target price (TP) for KKP to Bt42/share from Bt38/share as we remove the remaining goodwill from the acquisition of PHATRA Capital (~Bt3bn or ~Bt3.6/share) that we previously deducted from the TP.
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst no. 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695-5872
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 1 of 9
Rating and Valuation Summary Figure 1: Rating and Valuation Summary
Rating
Banks
14E Target Price (Bt) Price (Bt) Base case* Worst case** 24/3/2014
PER (X) 2014E
P/BV (X)
Div. yield (%)
ROE (%)
2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E Balance 13 2014E
BBL
BUY
220
200
175.00
8.79
7.89
1.07
0.97
12.5
12.9
2.57
KTB
Unrated
22.00
20.00
18.20
7.38
6.52
1.11
1.00
15.8
16.1
4.84
5.15
1.75
2.05
KBANK
3.71
BUY
205
194
171.00
9.59
8.62
1.61
1.40
18.0
17.4
SCB
Trading Buy
170
163
154.50
10.18
9.42
1.85
1.63
19.4
18.4
2.43
3.56
TMB
Trading Buy
2.30
2.20
2.40
14.08
10.80
1.55
1.40
11.5
13.6
1.67
2.34
BAY
Sell into strength
32.00
30.00
35.50
13.92
12.11
1.62
1.47
12.1
12.7
1.13
2.16
KKP***
Sell into Strength
42.00
40.00
41.75
8.39
7.22
0.95
0.88
11.6
12.6
3.95
6.23
TCAP
Sell into Strength (from Trading Buy)
36.00
33.00
35.50
7.18
6.76
0.83
0.76
12.4
11.8
2.82
4.23
TISCO
Sell into strength Neutral
40.00
38.00
40.00
Sector
7.52
6.90
1.29
1.16
17.9
17.7
5.00
5.32
9.57
8.57
1.40
1.25
15.4
15.4
2.82
3.71
Source: Company data, KT ZMICO Research * Note that the base-case scenario was based on a 14E GDP growth forecast of around 3-3.4%. ** Note that the worst-case scenario was based on a 14E GDP growth forecast of around 2-2.7% (on the assumption that there would be no government in 2014). *** KKP’s 14E target price (TP) of Bt42/share does not incorporate the remaining goodwill (~Bt3.0bn or Bt3.6/share) from the acquisition of PHATRA Capital, which will be reappraised annually. If we include this goodwill impairment, KKP’s TP would be at ~Bt38/share.
Figure 2: Sensitivity analysis on 2014E net profit Potential impact to 14E Net profits Banks
2014E Net profits Every 1% variation Every 10 bps variation
Every 10 bps
Every 1% variation of
(Btmn)
of loan growth
of credit cost
variation of NIM
fee income growth
BBL
37,993
0.3%
4.0%
5.4%
0.5%
KTB
34,460
0.5%
4.3%
5.7%
0.4%
KBANK
42,658
0.3%
2.9%
3.9%
0.6%
SCB
51,586
0.4%
2.9%
3.7%
0.4%
TMB
7,432
0.5%
5.7%
7.4%
0.6%
BAY
15,492
0.4%
5.1%
5.7%
0.8%
KKP
4,176
0.4%
4.2%
2.9%
0.4%
TCAP
6,318
0.3%
5.2%
6.5%
0.3%
TISCO
4,261
0.4%
5.7%
4.6%
0.5%
Sector
204,375
0.4%
3.8%
4.8%
0.5%
Source: KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: Sensitivity of banks’ market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (SD)
Market Price (Bt.)
25-Mar-14
+2.0SD +1.5SD
+1SD +0.5SD
Mean -0.5SD
-1SD -1.5SD -2.0SD
Price P/BV(x)
2013-2014 High
Low
BAY
35.50
1.7
44
41
37
34
30
27
23
19
16
39
28
BBL
175.00
1.1
248
234
219
205
190
176
161
146
132
237
165
KBANK
146
171.00
1.9
226
210
193
177
160
143
127
110
94
225
KKP
41.75
0.9
63
58
52
46
40
34
29
23
17
71
34
KTB
18.20
1.3
26
23
21
19
16
14
12
9
7
28
15
SC B
154.50
2.1
201
189
177
165
153
141
129
117
105
200
131
TC AP
35.50
0.9
52
47
42
37
32
28
23
18
13
50
30
TISC O
40.00
1.4
62
57
52
48
43
38
33
28
23
61
35
2.40
1.8
3.18
2.88
2.58
2.28
1.97
1.67
1.37
1.07
0.77
3.08
1.87
492.0
1.6
681
632
583
535
486
437
388
340
291
622
428
TMB SETBANK
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 2 of 9
Figure 4: Banks’ share price performance & relative performance vs. SETBANK and SET
C losed(Bt) SET BANK Banking BAY BBL KBANK KKP KTB SC B TC AP TISCO TMB LHBANK
2013 - 2014
25-Mar-14 High 1,354 1,643 492 622 35.50 175.00 171.00 41.75 18.20 154.50 35.50 40.00 2.40 1.20
Price change (%)
Low 1,225 428
38.75 237.00 225.00 71.25 27.75 199.50 50.25 60.75 3.08 1.61
27.50 165.00 145.50 34.25 15.30 130.50 29.75 34.50 1.87 1.15
1M 1Q YTD 1Y 4 -11 4 -11 4 3 8 -16 6 1 3 8 5 5 14 4 1 -2
18 -4 3 8 5 1 12 1 5 -3
16 -2 10 12 10 8 10 4 17 -17
2Y High 1M 1Q YTD 13 -18 7 -21 0 14 3
6 31 -18 -7 -17 13 -35 14 -27 8 -12 6 -18 8 -22 6 -10 33 -17 -14
Relative to SETBA NK (%)
Relative to SET (%)
-8 -26 -24 -41 -34 -23 -29 -34 -22 -25
2 -3 -1 4 1 1 10 0 -3 -5
1Y
2Y High 1M 2M 1Q YTD 1Y 2Y High
-5
-6
29 12 17 18 8 -6 -7 -21 14 5 -6 -1 19 8 -23 1 16 6 -16 -6 12 3 -1 -7 23 6 -7 -5 12 0 -11 -7 16 12 1 19 8 -21 -6 -28
-3 9 2 -9 -3 -6 -1 -24 4 -17 1 -5 1 -12 10 -17 0 -4 -3 -8 -5
8 -3 -3 11 1 -1 11 5 3 -4
15 9 22 24 -7 -9 -2 -15 0 2 -1 5 5 4 -18 7 1 3 -11 0 -2 0 4 -1 9 2 -2 1 -2 -4 -6 -1 2 9 6 25 -6 -24 -1 -22
12 -5 -3 -21 -14 -2 -9 -13 -1 -5
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 5: Key ratios of Thai banks vs. regional banks
NP growth(%)
PER (X)
P/BV (X)
2013
2014E
2013
2014E
2013 2014E
C hina Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia
12 6 14 14 -31 7
7 10 -6 11 21 9
5.6 13.4 12.9 11.3 10.7 13.2
5.1 10.4 13.5 10.2 8.6 12.3
Philippines
31
-3
12.7
13.1
1.7
1.6
Singapore Thailand Regional Avg.
3 25 9
7 3 6
13.3 9.8 11.5
12.2 9.6 10.6
1.1 1.6 1.5
1.1 1.4 1.3
0.8 1.3 1.9 2.1 0.6 1.9
Dividend yield (%)
ROE (%)
2013
2014E
2013
2014E
5.8 3.9 3.3 2.1 1.7 3.4
6.3 6.2 3.6 2.3 2.0 3.6
16.8 11.7 14.9 19.4 6.0 15.0
16.1 14.1 15.3 18.3 6.8 14.6
1.9
1.9
15.1
13.5
3.8 3.6 3.3
3.9 3.7 3.7
9.4 16.8 13.9
9.5 15.4 13.7
0.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.6 1.8
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 6: P/BV of SETBANK vs. SET P/BV (X) ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
3.6
SET P/BV
____ SETBANK P/BV
3.2
Red‐shirt protest Fire at CTW (May‐10)
2.8 +2.0SD = 2.35x
2.4
+1.0SD = 2.00x
2.0 Mean = 1.64x
+0.5SD = 1.82x
1.6 1.2 0.8
Military Coup (19 Sept‐06) Yellow‐shirt protest (07)
EU-US Debt crisis Widespread Flood 25 Mar 14 = 1.55x
Great US recession/Airport Closure
Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
0.4
-0.5SD = 1.46x -1.0SD = 1.28x -2.0SD = 0.93x
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 3 of 9
Figure 7: Banks’ loans vs. growth
basis
Feb 14
BBL KTB
Change MoM (%)
Change MoM (Btmn)
h Bank only Loans (Btmn)
Change Change YTD
Banks' Targets
Feb 14 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 YoY (%) 2M14 (%)
Jan 14
1 ,7 0 3 ,8 2 8
4 8 ,5 1 8
(8 ,4 0 3 )
5 ,6 3 0
2 .9 %
-0 .5 %
0 .3 %
7 .8 %
-0 .2 %
5 -7
9
6
8
1 ,7 4 1 ,7 2 6
(1 0 ,3 5 6 )
1 8 ,4 0 4
5 ,6 8 7
-0 .6 %
1 .1 %
0 .3 %
9 .5 %
1 .4 %
5 -7
12
8
9
KBA NK
1 ,4 4 6 ,4 6 7
(1 3 ,2 3 0 )
1 4 ,7 0 5
7 ,1 8 6
-0 .9 %
1 .0 %
0 .5 %
7 .9 %
1 .5 %
7 -8 (from 9 -1 1 )
8
7
8
SCB
1 ,7 1 1 ,4 1 0
3 0 ,7 8 8
-0 .7 % -0 .3 %
8 .1 %
-1 .0 %
TMB
5 0 1 ,8 1 5
1 4 ,5 7 8
-0 .2 %
1 2 .5 %
0 .8 %
BA Y
7 9 9 ,7 4 3
2 4 ,1 7 5
-2 .0 % -0 .8 %
1 0 .1 %
TCA P*
7 9 2 ,0 0 4
3 ,5 8 9
1 ,7 6 0
(1 ,5 7 6 )
3 .8 %
TISCO*
2 8 6 ,0 9 8
2 ,6 2 7
(2 ,9 4 5 )
(3 ,1 1 0 )
0 .9 %
KKP
1 9 2 ,5 5 0
1 ,5 4 4
239
276
0 .8 %
0 .1 %
Total
9,175,640
102,233
1,100
1,128
1.1%
0.01% 0.01%
(1 1 ,2 8 9 ) (5 ,6 4 9 ) 5 ,0 1 1
(1 ,0 4 1 )
(1 6 ,3 8 2 ) (6 ,2 7 5 )
1 .8 % 3 .0 %
1 .0 %
3 .0 % 0 .5 %
0 .2 %
-0 .2 %
-1 .0 % -1 .1 % 0 .1 %
14E (%)
KT ZMICO (%)
Dec 13
13A 14E
5 -7 (from 7 -1 0 ) 1 2
15E
5
7
7
10
8 -1 0
10
-2 .8 %
~9
14
5
9
0 .0 %
6 -7
5
5
6
1 0 .4 %
-2 .1 %
~1 0 +
18
9
11
1 0 .5 %
0 .3 %
21**
13
13
13
8.4%
0.02%
11
6
8
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research * Consolidated basis ** Including new large corporate banking loans (~Bt6bn). The bank mentioned that growth would be around 15-16% if excluding such loans. Note also that these targets were based on KKP’s 2014 GDP growth forecast of >4%, which was recently revised down to ~3.5%.
Figure 8: Banks’ deposits vs. growth Bank only
Change
YTD Change
basis
Deposits (Btmn) Feb 14
Dec 13
Change MoM (Bt mn) Jan 14
Feb 14
Dec 13
Change MoM (%) Jan 14
Feb 14
YoY (%)
2M14 (%)
BBL
1 ,9 0 3 ,0 7 1
3 6 ,5 6 6
615
3 1 ,3 9 5
2 .0 %
0 .0 %
1 .7 %
6 .7 %
1 .7 %
KTB
1 ,9 2 5 ,1 0 6
2 8 ,3 0 8
612
4 0 ,2 3 2
1 .5 %
0 .0 %
2 .1 %
1 6 .4 %
2 .2 %
KBA NK
1 ,5 9 1 ,5 9 3
(3 4 ,8 2 1 )
3 0 ,9 8 1
2 8 ,0 2 5
-2 .2 %
2 .0 %
1 .8 %
1 2 .8 %
3 .9 %
SCB
1 ,7 7 4 ,3 6 2
(3 3 ,4 9 4 ) (4 1 ,3 8 9 )
(4 ,9 7 7 )
-1 .8 %
-2 .3 %
-0 .3 %
7 .1 %
- 2 .5 %
TMB
5 5 2 ,0 1 8
3 ,8 1 6
7 ,8 1 7
1 4 ,5 3 7
0 .7 %
1 .5 %
2 .7 %
1 3 .8 %
4 .2 %
BA Y
7 9 8 ,1 6 4
1 0 ,1 4 5
7 ,1 1 8
2 2 ,6 5 6
1 .3 %
0 .9 %
2 .9 %
1 1 .8 %
3 .9 %
TCA P*
7 0 6 ,3 9 1
8 ,3 1 1
23
(9 ,5 6 4 )
1 .2 %
0 .0 %
-1 .3 %
3 .3 %
- 1 .3 %
TISCO*
2 4 7 ,0 5 2
9 ,5 1 9
(1 3 ,1 4 0 )
(4 ,4 4 9 )
3 .7 %
-5 .0 %
-1 .8 %
8 .3 %
- 6 .6 %
KKP
1 4 7 ,0 8 4
697
(2 ,2 3 3 )
3 ,1 9 2
0 .5 %
-1 .5 %
2 .2 %
-8 .0 %
0 .7 %
Total
9,644,841
29,047
(9,596)
121,048
0.3%
-0.1%
1.3%
9.9%
1.2%
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research * Consolidated basis
Figure 9: Thai banks’ loan growth on a YoY basis
20%
Avg. growth 2010-YTD = 10% YoY
Figure 10: Thai banks’ loan & deposit growth on MoM basis 5% 4%
15%
3% 2%
10%
-5%
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
Dec 13
Jun 13
Sep 13
Mar 13
Dec 12
Jun 12
Sep 12
Mar.12
Dec.11
Sept.11
Mar.11
Jun.11
Dec.10
Sept. 10
Mar.10
Jun. 10
Dec.09
Sept.09
-2% Dec.07 Mar.08 Jun.08 Sept.08 Dec.08 Mar.09 Jun.09 Sept.09 Dec.09 Mar.10 Jun. 10 Sept. 10 Dec.10 Mar.11 Jun.11 Sept.11 Dec.11 Mar.12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13
0%
Mar.09
-1%
Dec.08
0%
5%
Jun.09
1%
-3% Loan Growth MoM
Deposit Growth MoM
-4%
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 4 of 9
Figure 11: Thai banks’ loan-to-deposit and loan-to-
Figure 12: Ratios of loan-to-deposit and loan-to-
131
95 88
KBANK
98
BBL
116
80
95
95
112
100
TCAP TISCO
KKP
Sector
96
100
Loan to Deposit + Borrowing ratio
100
120
Loan to deposit ratio
90
105
Loan to deposit+borrowings
91 85
(%) 140
Loan to deposit
96 92
110
91 87
(%)
deposit and borrowing as of Feb-14
90 83
deposit and borrowing ratios
60
90
40 85
Dec 13
Jun 13
Sep 13
Mar 13
Dec 12
Sep 12
Mar.12
Jun 12
Dec.11
Sept.11
Mar.11
Jun.11
Dec.10
Sept. 10
Mar.10
Jun. 10
Dec.09
Sept.09
Mar.09
Jun.09
Dec.08
20 80
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
0 SCB
TMB
BAY
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 13: Net excess liquidity in the money market to
Figure 14: Capital adequacy ratios as of Feb-14
total assets as of Feb-14 (%)
(%) 18
14 12.3
16.7
12
15.5 15.5
16
9.4
10
15.0
8.2 8
14.6
14.6 13.9 13.5
14
6.0 6
5.4
4
4.4
3.8
12
3.4 2.3
10
2 0
13.5 13.1
BBL
KTB TISCO BAY
TMB KBANK KKP
SCB
TCAP Sector
8 BBL
-2
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
SCB TMB KBANK BAY TISCO KKP
KTB TCAP Sector
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 5 of 9
Figure 15: Summary of earnings and key assumptions
Key assumptions Net profits (Btm n) Net profits (THBm n) 2011
BBL 17,620 27,338
KTB 11,132 17,027
SCB 18,489 36,273
KBANK 15,340 24,226
BAY 4,673 9,264
TMB 1,046 4,009
TISCO 2,224 3,267
TCAP 0 5,002
KKP 2,208 2,273
SECTOR 79,100 128,679
2012
31,847
23,366
40,220
35,260
14,625
1,262
3,705
5,509
3,392
159,187
2013
35,906
33,928
50,233
41,325
14,019
5,737
4,249
9,231
4,418
199,046
2014E
37,993
34,460
51,586
42,658
15,492
7,432
4,261
6,318
4,176
204,375
NP Grow th (%) 2011 2012
BBL 11% 16%
KTB 14% 37%
SCB 50% 11%
KBANK 21% 46%
BAY 5% 58%
TMB 25% -69%
TISCO 13% 13%
TCAP -11% 10%
KKP -20% 49%
SECTOR 20% 24%
2013
13%
45%
25%
17%
-4%
355%
15%
68%
30%
25%
6%
2%
3%
3%
11%
30%
0%
-32%
-5%
3%
BBL
KTB
SCB
KBANK
BAY
TMB
TISCO
TCAP
KKP
SECTOR
2011
2.7%
2.9%
3.2%
3.7%
4.4%
2.4%
3.6%
2.9%
4.1%
3.3%
2012
2.5%
2.9%
3.2%
3.6%
4.3%
2.6%
2.8%
2.6%
3.5%
3.1%
2014E Net interest m argin (NIM)
2013
2.3%
2.8%
3.2%
3.6%
4.3%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
3.7%
3.15%
2014E
2.27%
2.76%
3.12%
3.49%
4.16%
3.01%
2.80%
2.67%
3.81%
3.12%
ROE 2011 2012 2013 2014E
BBL 11.5% 12.3% 12.6% 12.5%
KTB 13.3% 15.1% 17.6% 15.8%
SCB 19.2% 20.1% 21.8% 19.4%
KBANK 16.7% 20.8% 20.4% 18.0%
BAY 9.2% 13.6% 11.8% 12.1%
TMB 7.9% 13.0% 9.9% 11.5%
TISCO 20.8% 21.3% 20.6% 17.9%
TCAP 13.5% 13.6% 20.5% 12.4%
KKP 10.4% 12.1% 13.0% 11.6%
SECTOR 13.7% 15.5% 16.8% 15.4%
Cost/Incom e 2011
BBL
KTB
SCB
KBANK
BAY
TMB
TISCO
TCAP
KKP
SECTOR
43.8%
47.7%
42.9%
47.5%
49.7%
65.6%
45.6%
60.9%
51.3%
48.0%
2012
43.5%
43.2%
41.2%
45.0%
50.3%
57.3%
48.9%
59.9%
51.1%
45.9%
2013 2014E
41.5% 41.6%
43.7% 43.5%
38.3% 38.9%
43.4% 44.2%
50.6% 51.4%
52.0% 50.8%
39.5% 43.0%
51.6% 49.8%
47.4% 48.3%
43.9% 44.1%
Gross NPLs/loans 2011 2012 2013 2014E
BBL 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2%
KTB 4.0% 3.2% 2.6% 2.5%
SCB 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2%
KBANK 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%
BAY 3.7% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6%
TMB 5.7% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9%
TISCO 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.8%
TCAP 5.9% 4.3% 4.5% 4.4%
KKP 3.5% 3.3% 3.8% 3.6%
SECTOR 3.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%
Loan grow th- net 2011
BBL
KTB
SCB
KBANK
BAY
TMB
TISCO
TCAP
KKP
SECTOR
17%
14%
22%
12%
11%
9%
24%
5%
26%
15%
2012
9%
7%
20%
10%
15%
14%
34%
19%
24%
13%
2013
9%
12%
12%
8%
14%
10%
18%
5%
13%
11%
2014E
6%
8%
5%
7%
5%
7%
9%
5%
13%
6%
Provision/Loans 2011
BBL 0.82%
KTB 0.95%
SCB 0.51%
KBANK 0.61%
BAY 1.70%
TMB 0.78%
TISCO 0.70%
TCAP 0.33%
KKP 0.94%
SECTOR 0.80%
2012
0.45%
0.99%
0.61%
0.63%
1.37%
1.93%
0.77%
0.38%
0.92%
0.79%
2013
0.49%
0.72%
0.79%
0.82%
1.79%
1.52%
1.42%
1.45%
1.18%
0.95%
2014E
0.50%
0.70%
0.83%
0.90%
1.55%
1.12%
1.25%
0.85%
1.00%
0.86%
BBL 5%
KTB 10%
SCB 2%
KBANK 13%
BAY 7%
TMB 11%
TISCO 0%
TCAP 17%
KKP 23%
SECTOR 8%
Fee incom e grow th (%) 2011 2012
5%
16%
3%
19%
18%
26%
0%
25%
61%
14%
2013
11%
19%
20%
20%
14%
16%
26%
63%
91%
21%
9%
15%
7%
12%
10%
17%
-6%
11%
-25%
9%
2014E
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 6 of 9
Figure 16: PBV Band of individual banks and SETBANK BAY’s PBV Band
BBL’s PBV Band (X)
(X) 2.3
1.75
+2 S.D.
+2 S.D.
2.0
1.50
+1 S.D. 1.7
+0.5 S.D.
1.25
Avg.
1.4
-1 S.D.
0.8
-2 S.D.
Avg. -0.5 S.D.
-0.5 S.D.
1.1
+1 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
-1 S.D.
1.00
-2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
(X) 1.8
+0.5 S.D.
0.8
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
Avg.
0.6
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-13
May-13
Jan-14
Jan-13
Sep-13
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Avg. 2.0
-0.5 S.D.
-1 S.D.
-1 S.D.
-2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Sep-07
Jan-07
May-07
1.0 Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
May-08
1.5 -2 S.D.
Jan-08
Sep-07
Jan-11
+0.5 S.D.
Avg.
Jan-07
Sep-10
+1 S.D.
2.5
-0.5 S.D.
May-07
May-10
+2 S.D.
+1 S.D.
0.0
Jan-10
(X) 3.0
+0.5 S.D. 1.0
Sep-09
SCB’s PBV Band
+2 S.D.
1.5
Jan-07
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
KTB’s PBV Band (X) 2.0
Sep-12
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
May-07
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
0.2
0.6
Jan-09
-2S.D.
0.4
May-09
-2 S.D.
1.1
+1 S.D.
1.0
Sep-08
-1 S.D.
1.2
Jan-08
-0.5 S.D.
+2 S.D.
May-08
Avg.
1.4
Sep-07
+0.5 S.D.
1.6
+3 S.D.
1.6
+2 S.D. +1 S.D.
0.5
Sep-07
KKP’s PBV Band
(X) 3.1
2.1
Jan-07
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
KBANK’s PBV Band
2.6
0.50
May-07
Jan-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
0.5
0.75
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 7 of 9
TCAP’s PBV Band
TISCO’s PBV Band
(X)
(X) 2.5
1.6
1.2
+1 S.D.
1.0
+0.5 S.D.
Avg. 0.8 -0.5 S.D. 0.6
+2 S.D.
+2 S.D.
1.4
2.0
+1 S.D.
1.5
+0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
1.0
-1 S.D.
-2 S.D.
0.5
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
(X) 3.0
‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
3.6
+1 S.D.
1.5
+0.5 S.D. Avg.
2.0
1.0
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
1.6
-2 S.D.
1.2
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
0.4
Jan-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
+0.5SD = 1.82x
-0.5SD = 1.46x -1.0SD = 1.28x -2.0SD = 0.93x
Military Coup (19 Sept‐06) Yellow‐shirt protest (07)
EU-US Debt crisis Widespread Flood 25 Mar 14 = 1.55x
Great US recession/Airport Closure
Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
May-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
+1.0SD = 2.00x
Mean = 1.64x
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
+2.0SD = 2.35x
2.4
0.8 Jan-09
Red‐shirt protest Fire at CTW (May‐10)
2.8
2.0
Apr-09
SET P/BV
____ SETBANK P/BV
3.2 +2 S.D.
0.0
Sep-11
Jan-11
SETBANK’s PBV Band P/BV (X)
2.5
May-11
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
TMB’s PBV Band
0.5
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Jan-09
May-09
Jan-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
Jan-07
May-07
May-08
0.0
0.2
Sep-09
-2 S.D.
Sep-07
0.4
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 8 of 9
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals
The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 9 of 9
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Banking
Neutral
Feb-14 stats remain weak We maintain our Neutral stance for the Thai banking sector mainly on the weak Thai macro front and modest earnings growth in 2014E for Thai banks. Moreover, the potential for prolonged political unrest could apply some downward pressure on Thai economic growth and banks’ earnings, increasing the likelihood of our worst-case scenario. Our top picks remain KBANK, BBL and TMB. Feb-14 loans were flat again MoM: Moreover, loans for 2M14 were also flat YTD. The flat loans for two consecutive months reflect the weak macro fronts and we expect this trend to continue during 1H14E. The segment that saw some growth YTD was corporate loans for working capital purposes. Meanwhile, SME loans and mortgage loans were quite flat YTD, partly due to seasonality. In contrast, retail loans continued to drop YTD, especially auto loans in both the used and new car segments as well as credit card loans.
Share data SET index
1,354.01
Sector index
491.96
52-week high
619.66
52-week low
427.61
Market capitalization (Bt m)
2,008,174.29
% of market cap
16.72
Avg daily turnover (m shares)
361.76
Beta
1.16
Sector Performance (%) 1M
3M
12M
Absolute
3.86
3.12
-17.28
Relative
-0.17
1.48
-5.34
Loan growth in 2014E likely to weaken YoY: We expect the sector’s loan growth for 14E to weaken YoY at +6% vs. +11% for 2013. We see downside risk for loan growth in some banks, especially banks with higher exposure to consumer loans in the case of prolonged political tension. NIM in 1Q14E likely under pressure on rate cut impact: After two rate cuts (by 25 bps each) on 27 Nov-13 and 12 Jan14, the policy rate stands at 2%. Banks have followed suit by cutting both the MLR and deposit rates; this, coupled with weak loan growth, should put NIM for banks in 1Q14E under pressure despite the fact that they cut their savings rates at the same time. Therefore, we do not expect any exciting story for banks’ earnings in 1Q14E.
Note:
KT•ZMICO
is
a
partnership
between KTB and ZMICO
Greater likelihood of seeing worst-case scenario: The prolonged political tension should add downside risk to our base-case GDP growth forecast of 3-3.4% for 2014E and our net profit growth forecast for the banking sector at +3%. Note that in the worst-case scenario (on the assumption that there will be no government in 2014), we expect GDP growth at 2-2.7% and banks’ net profit growth at +1%. KBANK, BBL and TMB remain our top picks: We still prefer large banks (especially our top picks: KBANK and BBL) to smaller banks over the long term due to greater earnings diversification. For the second-tier pick, we like TMB for its stronger ROE enhancement vs. peers and for the M&A theme in a longer-term perspective. Note that we switch our rating for TCAP to Sell into strength from Trading Buy due to narrow upside potential. We also raised our 14 target price (TP) for KKP to Bt42/share from Bt38/share as we remove the remaining goodwill from the acquisition of PHATRA Capital (~Bt3bn or ~Bt3.6/share) that we previously deducted from the TP.
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst no. 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695-5872
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 1 of 9
Rating and Valuation Summary Figure 1: Rating and Valuation Summary
Rating
Banks
14E Target Price (Bt) Price (Bt) Base case* Worst case** 24/3/2014
PER (X) 2014E
P/BV (X)
Div. yield (%)
ROE (%)
2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E Balance 13 2014E
BBL
BUY
220
200
175.00
8.79
7.89
1.07
0.97
12.5
12.9
2.57
KTB
Unrated
22.00
20.00
18.20
7.38
6.52
1.11
1.00
15.8
16.1
4.84
5.15
1.75
2.05
KBANK
3.71
BUY
205
194
171.00
9.59
8.62
1.61
1.40
18.0
17.4
SCB
Trading Buy
170
163
154.50
10.18
9.42
1.85
1.63
19.4
18.4
2.43
3.56
TMB
Trading Buy
2.30
2.20
2.40
14.08
10.80
1.55
1.40
11.5
13.6
1.67
2.34
BAY
Sell into strength
32.00
30.00
35.50
13.92
12.11
1.62
1.47
12.1
12.7
1.13
2.16
KKP***
Sell into Strength
42.00
40.00
41.75
8.39
7.22
0.95
0.88
11.6
12.6
3.95
6.23
TCAP
Sell into Strength (from Trading Buy)
36.00
33.00
35.50
7.18
6.76
0.83
0.76
12.4
11.8
2.82
4.23
TISCO
Sell into strength Neutral
40.00
38.00
40.00
Sector
7.52
6.90
1.29
1.16
17.9
17.7
5.00
5.32
9.57
8.57
1.40
1.25
15.4
15.4
2.82
3.71
Source: Company data, KT ZMICO Research * Note that the base-case scenario was based on a 14E GDP growth forecast of around 3-3.4%. ** Note that the worst-case scenario was based on a 14E GDP growth forecast of around 2-2.7% (on the assumption that there would be no government in 2014). *** KKP’s 14E target price (TP) of Bt42/share does not incorporate the remaining goodwill (~Bt3.0bn or Bt3.6/share) from the acquisition of PHATRA Capital, which will be reappraised annually. If we include this goodwill impairment, KKP’s TP would be at ~Bt38/share.
Figure 2: Sensitivity analysis on 2014E net profit Potential impact to 14E Net profits Banks
2014E Net profits Every 1% variation Every 10 bps variation
Every 10 bps
Every 1% variation of
(Btmn)
of loan growth
of credit cost
variation of NIM
fee income growth
BBL
37,993
0.3%
4.0%
5.4%
0.5%
KTB
34,460
0.5%
4.3%
5.7%
0.4%
KBANK
42,658
0.3%
2.9%
3.9%
0.6%
SCB
51,586
0.4%
2.9%
3.7%
0.4%
TMB
7,432
0.5%
5.7%
7.4%
0.6%
BAY
15,492
0.4%
5.1%
5.7%
0.8%
KKP
4,176
0.4%
4.2%
2.9%
0.4%
TCAP
6,318
0.3%
5.2%
6.5%
0.3%
TISCO
4,261
0.4%
5.7%
4.6%
0.5%
Sector
204,375
0.4%
3.8%
4.8%
0.5%
Source: KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: Sensitivity of banks’ market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (SD)
Market Price (Bt.)
25-Mar-14
+2.0SD +1.5SD
+1SD +0.5SD
Mean -0.5SD
-1SD -1.5SD -2.0SD
Price P/BV(x)
2013-2014 High
Low
BAY
35.50
1.7
44
41
37
34
30
27
23
19
16
39
28
BBL
175.00
1.1
248
234
219
205
190
176
161
146
132
237
165
KBANK
146
171.00
1.9
226
210
193
177
160
143
127
110
94
225
KKP
41.75
0.9
63
58
52
46
40
34
29
23
17
71
34
KTB
18.20
1.3
26
23
21
19
16
14
12
9
7
28
15
SC B
154.50
2.1
201
189
177
165
153
141
129
117
105
200
131
TC AP
35.50
0.9
52
47
42
37
32
28
23
18
13
50
30
TISC O
40.00
1.4
62
57
52
48
43
38
33
28
23
61
35
2.40
1.8
3.18
2.88
2.58
2.28
1.97
1.67
1.37
1.07
0.77
3.08
1.87
492.0
1.6
681
632
583
535
486
437
388
340
291
622
428
TMB SETBANK
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 2 of 9
Figure 4: Banks’ share price performance & relative performance vs. SETBANK and SET
C losed(Bt) SET BANK Banking BAY BBL KBANK KKP KTB SC B TC AP TISCO TMB LHBANK
2013 - 2014
25-Mar-14 High 1,354 1,643 492 622 35.50 175.00 171.00 41.75 18.20 154.50 35.50 40.00 2.40 1.20
Price change (%)
Low 1,225 428
38.75 237.00 225.00 71.25 27.75 199.50 50.25 60.75 3.08 1.61
27.50 165.00 145.50 34.25 15.30 130.50 29.75 34.50 1.87 1.15
1M 1Q YTD 1Y 4 -11 4 -11 4 3 8 -16 6 1 3 8 5 5 14 4 1 -2
18 -4 3 8 5 1 12 1 5 -3
16 -2 10 12 10 8 10 4 17 -17
2Y High 1M 1Q YTD 13 -18 7 -21 0 14 3
6 31 -18 -7 -17 13 -35 14 -27 8 -12 6 -18 8 -22 6 -10 33 -17 -14
Relative to SETBA NK (%)
Relative to SET (%)
-8 -26 -24 -41 -34 -23 -29 -34 -22 -25
2 -3 -1 4 1 1 10 0 -3 -5
1Y
2Y High 1M 2M 1Q YTD 1Y 2Y High
-5
-6
29 12 17 18 8 -6 -7 -21 14 5 -6 -1 19 8 -23 1 16 6 -16 -6 12 3 -1 -7 23 6 -7 -5 12 0 -11 -7 16 12 1 19 8 -21 -6 -28
-3 9 2 -9 -3 -6 -1 -24 4 -17 1 -5 1 -12 10 -17 0 -4 -3 -8 -5
8 -3 -3 11 1 -1 11 5 3 -4
15 9 22 24 -7 -9 -2 -15 0 2 -1 5 5 4 -18 7 1 3 -11 0 -2 0 4 -1 9 2 -2 1 -2 -4 -6 -1 2 9 6 25 -6 -24 -1 -22
12 -5 -3 -21 -14 -2 -9 -13 -1 -5
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 5: Key ratios of Thai banks vs. regional banks
NP growth(%)
PER (X)
P/BV (X)
2013
2014E
2013
2014E
2013 2014E
C hina Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia
12 6 14 14 -31 7
7 10 -6 11 21 9
5.6 13.4 12.9 11.3 10.7 13.2
5.1 10.4 13.5 10.2 8.6 12.3
Philippines
31
-3
12.7
13.1
1.7
1.6
Singapore Thailand Regional Avg.
3 25 9
7 3 6
13.3 9.8 11.5
12.2 9.6 10.6
1.1 1.6 1.5
1.1 1.4 1.3
0.8 1.3 1.9 2.1 0.6 1.9
Dividend yield (%)
ROE (%)
2013
2014E
2013
2014E
5.8 3.9 3.3 2.1 1.7 3.4
6.3 6.2 3.6 2.3 2.0 3.6
16.8 11.7 14.9 19.4 6.0 15.0
16.1 14.1 15.3 18.3 6.8 14.6
1.9
1.9
15.1
13.5
3.8 3.6 3.3
3.9 3.7 3.7
9.4 16.8 13.9
9.5 15.4 13.7
0.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.6 1.8
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 6: P/BV of SETBANK vs. SET P/BV (X) ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
3.6
SET P/BV
____ SETBANK P/BV
3.2
Red‐shirt protest Fire at CTW (May‐10)
2.8 +2.0SD = 2.35x
2.4
+1.0SD = 2.00x
2.0 Mean = 1.64x
+0.5SD = 1.82x
1.6 1.2 0.8
Military Coup (19 Sept‐06) Yellow‐shirt protest (07)
EU-US Debt crisis Widespread Flood 25 Mar 14 = 1.55x
Great US recession/Airport Closure
Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
0.4
-0.5SD = 1.46x -1.0SD = 1.28x -2.0SD = 0.93x
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 3 of 9
Figure 7: Banks’ loans vs. growth
basis
Feb 14
BBL KTB
Change MoM (%)
Change MoM (Btmn)
h Bank only Loans (Btmn)
Change Change YTD
Banks' Targets
Feb 14 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 YoY (%) 2M14 (%)
Jan 14
1 ,7 0 3 ,8 2 8
4 8 ,5 1 8
(8 ,4 0 3 )
5 ,6 3 0
2 .9 %
-0 .5 %
0 .3 %
7 .8 %
-0 .2 %
5 -7
9
6
8
1 ,7 4 1 ,7 2 6
(1 0 ,3 5 6 )
1 8 ,4 0 4
5 ,6 8 7
-0 .6 %
1 .1 %
0 .3 %
9 .5 %
1 .4 %
5 -7
12
8
9
KBA NK
1 ,4 4 6 ,4 6 7
(1 3 ,2 3 0 )
1 4 ,7 0 5
7 ,1 8 6
-0 .9 %
1 .0 %
0 .5 %
7 .9 %
1 .5 %
7 -8 (from 9 -1 1 )
8
7
8
SCB
1 ,7 1 1 ,4 1 0
3 0 ,7 8 8
-0 .7 % -0 .3 %
8 .1 %
-1 .0 %
TMB
5 0 1 ,8 1 5
1 4 ,5 7 8
-0 .2 %
1 2 .5 %
0 .8 %
BA Y
7 9 9 ,7 4 3
2 4 ,1 7 5
-2 .0 % -0 .8 %
1 0 .1 %
TCA P*
7 9 2 ,0 0 4
3 ,5 8 9
1 ,7 6 0
(1 ,5 7 6 )
3 .8 %
TISCO*
2 8 6 ,0 9 8
2 ,6 2 7
(2 ,9 4 5 )
(3 ,1 1 0 )
0 .9 %
KKP
1 9 2 ,5 5 0
1 ,5 4 4
239
276
0 .8 %
0 .1 %
Total
9,175,640
102,233
1,100
1,128
1.1%
0.01% 0.01%
(1 1 ,2 8 9 ) (5 ,6 4 9 ) 5 ,0 1 1
(1 ,0 4 1 )
(1 6 ,3 8 2 ) (6 ,2 7 5 )
1 .8 % 3 .0 %
1 .0 %
3 .0 % 0 .5 %
0 .2 %
-0 .2 %
-1 .0 % -1 .1 % 0 .1 %
14E (%)
KT ZMICO (%)
Dec 13
13A 14E
5 -7 (from 7 -1 0 ) 1 2
15E
5
7
7
10
8 -1 0
10
-2 .8 %
~9
14
5
9
0 .0 %
6 -7
5
5
6
1 0 .4 %
-2 .1 %
~1 0 +
18
9
11
1 0 .5 %
0 .3 %
21**
13
13
13
8.4%
0.02%
11
6
8
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research * Consolidated basis ** Including new large corporate banking loans (~Bt6bn). The bank mentioned that growth would be around 15-16% if excluding such loans. Note also that these targets were based on KKP’s 2014 GDP growth forecast of >4%, which was recently revised down to ~3.5%.
Figure 8: Banks’ deposits vs. growth Bank only
Change
YTD Change
basis
Deposits (Btmn) Feb 14
Dec 13
Change MoM (Bt mn) Jan 14
Feb 14
Dec 13
Change MoM (%) Jan 14
Feb 14
YoY (%)
2M14 (%)
BBL
1 ,9 0 3 ,0 7 1
3 6 ,5 6 6
615
3 1 ,3 9 5
2 .0 %
0 .0 %
1 .7 %
6 .7 %
1 .7 %
KTB
1 ,9 2 5 ,1 0 6
2 8 ,3 0 8
612
4 0 ,2 3 2
1 .5 %
0 .0 %
2 .1 %
1 6 .4 %
2 .2 %
KBA NK
1 ,5 9 1 ,5 9 3
(3 4 ,8 2 1 )
3 0 ,9 8 1
2 8 ,0 2 5
-2 .2 %
2 .0 %
1 .8 %
1 2 .8 %
3 .9 %
SCB
1 ,7 7 4 ,3 6 2
(3 3 ,4 9 4 ) (4 1 ,3 8 9 )
(4 ,9 7 7 )
-1 .8 %
-2 .3 %
-0 .3 %
7 .1 %
- 2 .5 %
TMB
5 5 2 ,0 1 8
3 ,8 1 6
7 ,8 1 7
1 4 ,5 3 7
0 .7 %
1 .5 %
2 .7 %
1 3 .8 %
4 .2 %
BA Y
7 9 8 ,1 6 4
1 0 ,1 4 5
7 ,1 1 8
2 2 ,6 5 6
1 .3 %
0 .9 %
2 .9 %
1 1 .8 %
3 .9 %
TCA P*
7 0 6 ,3 9 1
8 ,3 1 1
23
(9 ,5 6 4 )
1 .2 %
0 .0 %
-1 .3 %
3 .3 %
- 1 .3 %
TISCO*
2 4 7 ,0 5 2
9 ,5 1 9
(1 3 ,1 4 0 )
(4 ,4 4 9 )
3 .7 %
-5 .0 %
-1 .8 %
8 .3 %
- 6 .6 %
KKP
1 4 7 ,0 8 4
697
(2 ,2 3 3 )
3 ,1 9 2
0 .5 %
-1 .5 %
2 .2 %
-8 .0 %
0 .7 %
Total
9,644,841
29,047
(9,596)
121,048
0.3%
-0.1%
1.3%
9.9%
1.2%
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research * Consolidated basis
Figure 9: Thai banks’ loan growth on a YoY basis
20%
Avg. growth 2010-YTD = 10% YoY
Figure 10: Thai banks’ loan & deposit growth on MoM basis 5% 4%
15%
3% 2%
10%
-5%
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
Dec 13
Jun 13
Sep 13
Mar 13
Dec 12
Jun 12
Sep 12
Mar.12
Dec.11
Sept.11
Mar.11
Jun.11
Dec.10
Sept. 10
Mar.10
Jun. 10
Dec.09
Sept.09
-2% Dec.07 Mar.08 Jun.08 Sept.08 Dec.08 Mar.09 Jun.09 Sept.09 Dec.09 Mar.10 Jun. 10 Sept. 10 Dec.10 Mar.11 Jun.11 Sept.11 Dec.11 Mar.12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13
0%
Mar.09
-1%
Dec.08
0%
5%
Jun.09
1%
-3% Loan Growth MoM
Deposit Growth MoM
-4%
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 4 of 9
Figure 11: Thai banks’ loan-to-deposit and loan-to-
Figure 12: Ratios of loan-to-deposit and loan-to-
131
95 88
KBANK
98
BBL
116
80
95
95
112
100
TCAP TISCO
KKP
Sector
96
100
Loan to Deposit + Borrowing ratio
100
120
Loan to deposit ratio
90
105
Loan to deposit+borrowings
91 85
(%) 140
Loan to deposit
96 92
110
91 87
(%)
deposit and borrowing as of Feb-14
90 83
deposit and borrowing ratios
60
90
40 85
Dec 13
Jun 13
Sep 13
Mar 13
Dec 12
Sep 12
Mar.12
Jun 12
Dec.11
Sept.11
Mar.11
Jun.11
Dec.10
Sept. 10
Mar.10
Jun. 10
Dec.09
Sept.09
Mar.09
Jun.09
Dec.08
20 80
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
0 SCB
TMB
BAY
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 13: Net excess liquidity in the money market to
Figure 14: Capital adequacy ratios as of Feb-14
total assets as of Feb-14 (%)
(%) 18
14 12.3
16.7
12
15.5 15.5
16
9.4
10
15.0
8.2 8
14.6
14.6 13.9 13.5
14
6.0 6
5.4
4
4.4
3.8
12
3.4 2.3
10
2 0
13.5 13.1
BBL
KTB TISCO BAY
TMB KBANK KKP
SCB
TCAP Sector
8 BBL
-2
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
SCB TMB KBANK BAY TISCO KKP
KTB TCAP Sector
Source: Banks, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 5 of 9
Figure 15: Summary of earnings and key assumptions
Key assumptions Net profits (Btm n) Net profits (THBm n) 2011
BBL 17,620 27,338
KTB 11,132 17,027
SCB 18,489 36,273
KBANK 15,340 24,226
BAY 4,673 9,264
TMB 1,046 4,009
TISCO 2,224 3,267
TCAP 0 5,002
KKP 2,208 2,273
SECTOR 79,100 128,679
2012
31,847
23,366
40,220
35,260
14,625
1,262
3,705
5,509
3,392
159,187
2013
35,906
33,928
50,233
41,325
14,019
5,737
4,249
9,231
4,418
199,046
2014E
37,993
34,460
51,586
42,658
15,492
7,432
4,261
6,318
4,176
204,375
NP Grow th (%) 2011 2012
BBL 11% 16%
KTB 14% 37%
SCB 50% 11%
KBANK 21% 46%
BAY 5% 58%
TMB 25% -69%
TISCO 13% 13%
TCAP -11% 10%
KKP -20% 49%
SECTOR 20% 24%
2013
13%
45%
25%
17%
-4%
355%
15%
68%
30%
25%
6%
2%
3%
3%
11%
30%
0%
-32%
-5%
3%
BBL
KTB
SCB
KBANK
BAY
TMB
TISCO
TCAP
KKP
SECTOR
2011
2.7%
2.9%
3.2%
3.7%
4.4%
2.4%
3.6%
2.9%
4.1%
3.3%
2012
2.5%
2.9%
3.2%
3.6%
4.3%
2.6%
2.8%
2.6%
3.5%
3.1%
2014E Net interest m argin (NIM)
2013
2.3%
2.8%
3.2%
3.6%
4.3%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
3.7%
3.15%
2014E
2.27%
2.76%
3.12%
3.49%
4.16%
3.01%
2.80%
2.67%
3.81%
3.12%
ROE 2011 2012 2013 2014E
BBL 11.5% 12.3% 12.6% 12.5%
KTB 13.3% 15.1% 17.6% 15.8%
SCB 19.2% 20.1% 21.8% 19.4%
KBANK 16.7% 20.8% 20.4% 18.0%
BAY 9.2% 13.6% 11.8% 12.1%
TMB 7.9% 13.0% 9.9% 11.5%
TISCO 20.8% 21.3% 20.6% 17.9%
TCAP 13.5% 13.6% 20.5% 12.4%
KKP 10.4% 12.1% 13.0% 11.6%
SECTOR 13.7% 15.5% 16.8% 15.4%
Cost/Incom e 2011
BBL
KTB
SCB
KBANK
BAY
TMB
TISCO
TCAP
KKP
SECTOR
43.8%
47.7%
42.9%
47.5%
49.7%
65.6%
45.6%
60.9%
51.3%
48.0%
2012
43.5%
43.2%
41.2%
45.0%
50.3%
57.3%
48.9%
59.9%
51.1%
45.9%
2013 2014E
41.5% 41.6%
43.7% 43.5%
38.3% 38.9%
43.4% 44.2%
50.6% 51.4%
52.0% 50.8%
39.5% 43.0%
51.6% 49.8%
47.4% 48.3%
43.9% 44.1%
Gross NPLs/loans 2011 2012 2013 2014E
BBL 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2%
KTB 4.0% 3.2% 2.6% 2.5%
SCB 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2%
KBANK 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%
BAY 3.7% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6%
TMB 5.7% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9%
TISCO 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.8%
TCAP 5.9% 4.3% 4.5% 4.4%
KKP 3.5% 3.3% 3.8% 3.6%
SECTOR 3.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%
Loan grow th- net 2011
BBL
KTB
SCB
KBANK
BAY
TMB
TISCO
TCAP
KKP
SECTOR
17%
14%
22%
12%
11%
9%
24%
5%
26%
15%
2012
9%
7%
20%
10%
15%
14%
34%
19%
24%
13%
2013
9%
12%
12%
8%
14%
10%
18%
5%
13%
11%
2014E
6%
8%
5%
7%
5%
7%
9%
5%
13%
6%
Provision/Loans 2011
BBL 0.82%
KTB 0.95%
SCB 0.51%
KBANK 0.61%
BAY 1.70%
TMB 0.78%
TISCO 0.70%
TCAP 0.33%
KKP 0.94%
SECTOR 0.80%
2012
0.45%
0.99%
0.61%
0.63%
1.37%
1.93%
0.77%
0.38%
0.92%
0.79%
2013
0.49%
0.72%
0.79%
0.82%
1.79%
1.52%
1.42%
1.45%
1.18%
0.95%
2014E
0.50%
0.70%
0.83%
0.90%
1.55%
1.12%
1.25%
0.85%
1.00%
0.86%
BBL 5%
KTB 10%
SCB 2%
KBANK 13%
BAY 7%
TMB 11%
TISCO 0%
TCAP 17%
KKP 23%
SECTOR 8%
Fee incom e grow th (%) 2011 2012
5%
16%
3%
19%
18%
26%
0%
25%
61%
14%
2013
11%
19%
20%
20%
14%
16%
26%
63%
91%
21%
9%
15%
7%
12%
10%
17%
-6%
11%
-25%
9%
2014E
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 6 of 9
Figure 16: PBV Band of individual banks and SETBANK BAY’s PBV Band
BBL’s PBV Band (X)
(X) 2.3
1.75
+2 S.D.
+2 S.D.
2.0
1.50
+1 S.D. 1.7
+0.5 S.D.
1.25
Avg.
1.4
-1 S.D.
0.8
-2 S.D.
Avg. -0.5 S.D.
-0.5 S.D.
1.1
+1 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
-1 S.D.
1.00
-2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
(X) 1.8
+0.5 S.D.
0.8
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
Avg.
0.6
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-13
May-13
Jan-14
Jan-13
Sep-13
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Avg. 2.0
-0.5 S.D.
-1 S.D.
-1 S.D.
-2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Sep-07
Jan-07
May-07
1.0 Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
May-08
1.5 -2 S.D.
Jan-08
Sep-07
Jan-11
+0.5 S.D.
Avg.
Jan-07
Sep-10
+1 S.D.
2.5
-0.5 S.D.
May-07
May-10
+2 S.D.
+1 S.D.
0.0
Jan-10
(X) 3.0
+0.5 S.D. 1.0
Sep-09
SCB’s PBV Band
+2 S.D.
1.5
Jan-07
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
KTB’s PBV Band (X) 2.0
Sep-12
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
May-07
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
0.2
0.6
Jan-09
-2S.D.
0.4
May-09
-2 S.D.
1.1
+1 S.D.
1.0
Sep-08
-1 S.D.
1.2
Jan-08
-0.5 S.D.
+2 S.D.
May-08
Avg.
1.4
Sep-07
+0.5 S.D.
1.6
+3 S.D.
1.6
+2 S.D. +1 S.D.
0.5
Sep-07
KKP’s PBV Band
(X) 3.1
2.1
Jan-07
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
KBANK’s PBV Band
2.6
0.50
May-07
Jan-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
0.5
0.75
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 7 of 9
TCAP’s PBV Band
TISCO’s PBV Band
(X)
(X) 2.5
1.6
1.2
+1 S.D.
1.0
+0.5 S.D.
Avg. 0.8 -0.5 S.D. 0.6
+2 S.D.
+2 S.D.
1.4
2.0
+1 S.D.
1.5
+0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
1.0
-1 S.D.
-2 S.D.
0.5
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
(X) 3.0
‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
3.6
+1 S.D.
1.5
+0.5 S.D. Avg.
2.0
1.0
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
1.6
-2 S.D.
1.2
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
0.4
Jan-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
+0.5SD = 1.82x
-0.5SD = 1.46x -1.0SD = 1.28x -2.0SD = 0.93x
Military Coup (19 Sept‐06) Yellow‐shirt protest (07)
EU-US Debt crisis Widespread Flood 25 Mar 14 = 1.55x
Great US recession/Airport Closure
Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
May-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
+1.0SD = 2.00x
Mean = 1.64x
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
+2.0SD = 2.35x
2.4
0.8 Jan-09
Red‐shirt protest Fire at CTW (May‐10)
2.8
2.0
Apr-09
SET P/BV
____ SETBANK P/BV
3.2 +2 S.D.
0.0
Sep-11
Jan-11
SETBANK’s PBV Band P/BV (X)
2.5
May-11
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
TMB’s PBV Band
0.5
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Jan-09
May-09
Jan-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
Jan-07
May-07
May-08
0.0
0.2
Sep-09
-2 S.D.
Sep-07
0.4
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 8 of 9
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals
The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 9 of 9
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
