Intouch Holdings Buy (2017E TP Bt62.00)
Earnings review
Close Bt52.00
ICT
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
November 14, 2016
3Q16 earnings missed expectation
Reuters / Bloomberg
INTU.BK/INTUCH TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,206.42
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
167.00/4,711.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
47.20/47.19
52 week High / Low (Bt)
71.75/44.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
14,591.00
NVDR (%)
14.63
Estimated free float (%)
54.35
Beta
1.47
URL
www.intouchcompany.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482
[email protected] Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec 15.0 Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) 10.0 Norm EPS (Bt) Norm EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) 5.0 BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) ‐ EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 12,194 14,761 4.60 4.74 ‐0.9% 4.39 10.68 2014 17.11 54.77 7.38 5.6% 60.9% 9.6%
2015 12,665 16,078 5.01 5.34 12.8% 4.73 11.02 2015 10.37 31.62 4.72 9.10% 64.1% 10.5%
2016E 11,923 17,073 5.32 4.06 ‐24.0% 4.60 10.22 2016E 9.77 37.02 5.09 8.85% 70.5% 35.2%
66 (0) 2624‐6273
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2017E 2018E +1.0SD = 16.3x 12,711 12,875 13,624 13,563 4.25 4.23 Avea rge= 12.8x 4.25 4.23 4.6% ‐0.4% 3.41 ‐1.0SD = 9.2x 3.31 11.16 12.03 2017E 2018E 12.24 ‐2.0SD = 5.7x 12.29 32.12 31.13 4.66 4.32 6.6% 6.4% 55.8% 49.6% 23.4% 8.7%
1/1/2016
7.4%
1/1/2015
18.9%
1/1/2014
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
1/1/2013
3.958
1/1/2012
FY17
4.474
1/1/2011
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1/1/2010
1/1/2009
Source: SET Smart
BUY maintained INTUCH’s earnings in 3Q16 came up short of our forecast pressured by the weak performance of its core investments. We see the slow momentum continuing in 4Q16E with a brighter outlook in 2017E. The solid operation of ADVANC will help INTUCH secure its yield at over 6% during 2017E‐ 2018E despite applying conservative assumptions on ADVANC’s dividend payout. Our 2017E TP at Bt62, based on SoTP valuation with a 15% holding company discount (+1SD), offers 19% upside to the current share price. 3Q16 results came in below view INTUCH recorded a net profit of Bt2.7bn, below our estimate and the market’s by 12% due to lower‐than‐expected earnings for ADVANC. Stripping out ITV’s provision reversal in 2Q16 and unrealized Fx gain, its core earnings dropped 41%YoY and 44%QoQ. Its share of profit from ADVANC fell by 26%YoY and 34%QoQ to Bt2.6bn due to an aggressive handset campaign and TOT tower and equipment rental payments. THCOM also showed a weak performance both YoY and QoQ due to a lower margin in the satellite business. Its revenue decreased 11%YoY and 4%QoQ led by the business termination of CTH and lower bandwidth usage for broadband satellites. Meanwhile, its costs ran up given the full cost recognition of Thaicom8. The contribution from the internet and media business also decreased YoY on lower revenue despite effective cost control. Downside risk to 2016E earnings estimate Its 9M16 core earnings of Bt10.1bn, decreasing 22%YoY, represent 77% of our full‐year forecast. While shared profit from THCOM’s telecom business in Lao PDR during the high season should help mitigate the weak satellite performance, we see downside risk on an earnings downturn in 4Q16E for INTUCH pressured by ADVANC amidst the intensified PER (x) competition in mobile services. Nevertheless, we believe a brighter 25.0 outlook will be seen in 2017E for both ADVANC and THCOM. +2.0SD = 23.4x 20.0
1/1/2008
Price Performance (%)
Figure 1: Earnings review Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec. Revenue Gross Profit Share of profit from JV Share of profit from associates Net profit (loss) Extra items Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB) Gross margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt to equity (x) BVPS (Bt)
3Q15 3,208 1,323 (19) 3,510 3,471 (482) 3,906 1.08 41.2% 108.2% 0.91 8.94 0.70 9.65
2Q16 2,933 1,171 38 3,891 7,717 3,887 4,102 2.41 39.9% 263.1% 1.55 9.19 0.48 12.20
3Q16 2,823 1,037 28 2,585 2,963 88 2,618 0.92 36.7% 104.9% 1.85 4.36 0.46 10.96
%QoQ ‐3.7% ‐11.4% ‐26.3% ‐33.6% ‐61.6% ‐97.7% ‐36.2% ‐61.6%
‐10.2%
%YoY ‐12.0% ‐21.6% ‐250.2% ‐26.3% ‐14.6% om ‐33.0% ‐14.6%
9M16 8,997 3,625 80 9,735 14,137 4,073 10,074 4.41 40.3% 157.1% 1.85 7.80 0.46 13.6% 10.96
%YoY ‐2.1% ‐2.2% ‐40.0% ‐15.0% 21.4% nm ‐21.7% 21.4%
2016E 11,923 4,666 238 12,664 17,073 4,044 13,029 5.32 39.1% 143.2% 1.12 6.11 0.67 10.22
%YoY ‐5.9% ‐8.9% 40.9% ‐20.0% 6.2% ‐483.6% ‐24.0% 6.2%
YTD (% of 2016E) 75.5% 77.7% 33.8% 76.9% 82.8% 100.7% 77.3% 82.8%
‐7.3%
Source: INTUCH and KTZ Research Figure 2: INTUCH’s break‐up value based on subsidiaries’ fair value Total Fair Value Equity Shares (mn) (Bt) Value (Bt) ADVANC 2,973 180.00 535,157 THCOM 1,096 33.00 36,168 Unconsolidated net cash Total break‐up value Total break‐up value per share (Bt) Discount for holding company INTUCH's target price (Bt) Source: KT Zmico Research
INTUCH's EV of INTUCH's holding holding 40.45% 216,471 41.14% 14,880 1,739 233,090 72.69 15% 61.79
Figure 3: PER and INTUCH’s discount to NAV
INTUCH's discount to NAV
PER (x)
25.0
0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% +1.0SD = 16.3x ‐15.0% +2.0SD = 23.4x
20.0 15.0
+2SD=‐9.6% +1SD=‐13.9% Average=‐18.3%
‐20.0% Avearge= 12.8x ‐25.0% ‐1.0SD = 9.2x ‐30.0% ‐35.0% ‐2.0SD = 5.7x ‐40.0%
5.0
1/1/2016
1/1/2015
1/1/2014
1/1/2013
1/1/2012
1/1/2011
1/1/2010
1/1/2009
1/1/2008
‐
‐1SD=‐22.6% ‐3SD=‐31.2%
Jan ‐1 0 Ju l‐1 0 Jan ‐1 1 Ju l‐1 1 Jan ‐1 2 Ju l‐1 2 Jan ‐1 3 Ju l‐1 3 Jan ‐1 4 Ju l‐1 4 Jan ‐1 5 Ju l‐1 5 Jan ‐1 6 Ju l‐1 6
10.0
Source: Bloomberg and KT Zmico Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, TFD, SUTHA, CI.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89)
Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Pass (scores: 50 – 59)
No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068