InVision Buy EUR 90.00
InVision (CDAX, Software/IT) Value Indicators:
Buy EUR
90.00
EUR
89.78
Bloomberg: Reuters: ISIN:
Market Snapshot:
EUR m
Shareholders:
(EUR 100.00)
Price
EUR 41.00
Upside
119.5 %
Share data:
DCF:
Market cap: No. of shares (m): EV: Freefloat MC: Ø Trad. Vol. (30d):
91.6 2.2 91.8 26.1 8.51 th
Description: IVX GR IVXG DE0005859698
Freefloat InVision Holding GmbH Peter Bollenbeck Armand Zohari Fidelity
28.5 % 21.9 % 17.0 % 17.0 % 4.3 %
InVision is a leading supplier of software for WFM and for online training
Risk Profile (WRe):
2016e
Beta: Price / Book: Equity Ratio: Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA: Net Debt / EBITDA:
1.3 7.7 x 71 % 0.0 x 0.0 x
Rapid build-up of personnel During a recent management meeting/company visit (07.09.16), the future development of the company was discussed: After moving into its new office building (Maki Solitaire) located in Dusseldorf’s Medienhafen area, which has been completely transformed, a Silicon Valley-like working environment has been created, which should help to attract top-class employees. In this context, a comprehensive build-up of personnel is planned (from 88 previously to about 111 positions currently, target of 120), as already referred to in our commentary dated 29.07.16 (“Earnings doubled”). These recruitment efforts, however, are expected to impact personnel costs earlier than initially expected. As a consequence, the cost situation was discussed during the meeting and will be adjusted on the estimates side. The now more offensive staffing policy will become visible in 2017 and especially in the long term. The long-term growth assumptions (DCF, WRe) will be increased slightly and the long-term margin level will be reduced based on the plan to continue increasing staff. However as high risk discounts are expected for the revenue impact of the new personnel especially in the long term, the adjustment has a slightly negative overall impact on the DCF model. Significant positive effects of the current increase in personnel are not taken into account for reasons of caution. While there is reason to assume that in the course of the staff expansion the cloud business will also grow more significantly in the long term, from today’s perspective visibility is not sufficient to plan for this. The long-term estimates in particular seem defensive in light of the build-up of personnel. The valuation of the share remains attractive. With a PER of less than 20 (2017) and an expected growth rate of 160%, a remarkable discrepancy can still be seen in the 2017/18 results in terms of the determination of the growth potential. The InVision share continues to be rated Buy with a price target of EUR 90 (100).
Changes in Estimates: FY End: 31.12. in EUR m
Comment on Changes:
2016e (old)
+/-
2017e (old)
+/-
2018e (old)
+/-
13.0 4.1 1.66 0.00
0.0 % -3.2 % -1.8 % 0.0 %
15.5 5.6 2.31 0.00
0.0 % -10.5 % -12.1 % 0.0 %
18.8 8.1 3.30 0.00
0.0 % 0.0 % -1.2 % 0.0 %
Sales EBIT EPS DPS
FY End: 31.12. in EUR m
Rel. Performance vs CDAX: 1 month:
2.3 %
6 months:
-8.0 %
Year to date: Trailing 12 months:
-18.5 % -2.5 %
Company events: 10.11.16
Q3
CAGR (15-18e)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
13.2 6.8 % 97.4 % 1.2 8.8 % 0.8 6.2 % 0.6
13.6 2.5 % 97.6 % 2.1 15.2 % 1.8 12.9 % 1.6
13.4 -1.1 % 98.2 % 4.5 33.6 % 4.1 30.8 % 4.2
12.7 -5.2 % 97.1 % 3.2 25.2 % 2.7 21.1 % 2.1
13.0 2.3 % 98.0 % 4.5 34.8 % 3.9 30.3 % 3.7
15.5 19.2 % 98.5 % 5.5 35.5 % 5.0 32.5 % 4.5
18.8 21.3 % 99.0 % 8.6 45.5 % 8.1 43.0 % 7.3
0.29 0.31 0.00 n.a. 0.34 3.1 %
0.71 0.79 0.00 n.a. 1.36 7.0 %
1.90 1.94 1.00 2.2 % -1.48 -3.3 %
0.97 0.98 0.00 n.a. -0.02 0.0 %
1.63 1.63 0.00 n.a. 0.75 1.8 %
2.03 2.03 0.00 n.a. 0.86 2.1 %
3.26 3.26 0.00 n.a. 2.09 5.1 %
2.0 x 22.9 x 32.7 x 46.0 x 43.1 x 2.9 %
2.8 x 18.4 x 21.6 x 27.5 x 24.7 x 5.3 %
7.3 x 21.9 x 23.9 x 23.6 x 23.1 x -1.7 %
8.2 x 32.6 x 39.0 x 47.9 x 47.4 x 0.3 %
7.1 x 20.3 x 23.3 x 25.2 x 25.2 x 1.9 %
5.8 x 16.3 x 17.8 x 20.2 x 20.2 x 2.8 %
4.6 x 10.0 x 10.6 x 12.7 x 12.7 x 6.1 %
-2.5 -4.6 -0.4 1.8 51.2 % n.a. 97.9 % 23.4 % 2016 revenues of at least EUR 12m, EBIT EUR 3.5m - 4m
0.2 33.1 %
-1.8 33.7 %
-6.4 45.2 %
Sales Change Sales yoy Gross profit margin EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Net income
13.9 %
EPS EPS adj. DPS Dividend Yield FCFPS FCF / Market cap
49.8 % 49.3 % -
EV / Sales EV / EBITDA EV / EBIT P/E P / E adj. FCF Yield Potential Net Debt ROCE (NOPAT) Guidance:
Personnel costs will reach an elevated level earlier than initially expected and thus reduce the earnings expectations for 2017. Long term (2019 and beyond), a continuation of higher personnel cost ratios is expected. Based on defensive discounting, this has a negative effect on the DCF value.
38.8 % 44.6 % 50.6 %
Analyst
F el i x El l ma n n [email protected] m +49 40 309537-120
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016 08:15
1
InVision Sales development
Cloud Computing
EBIT development
in EUR m
in USD
in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
Company Background InVision supplies call centre employees with workforce management software and e-learning solutions Since 2011 InVision has been providing new cloud-based software products (software as a service, SaaS, cloud) which represent an increasingly important source of earnings for the company
Competitive Quality InVision has many years of experience in the call centre and WFM field Cloud-based products were further developed in 2011, making InVision a first mover in the field of cloud-based WFM solutions. This was also the case for the firm's second product range, cloud-based training The products in the field of SaaS possesses a very modern software architecture and structure (decentralised approach) Significant market entry barriers posed are development costs (ca. EUR 30m), acquired customer base and technological lead (first mover) The SaaS model is mainly of interest for the huge market of smaller users.
EBT development
Sales by segments
Net income development
in EUR m
2016e; in %
in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
2
InVision DCF model Detailed forecast period
Transitional period
Term. Value
Figures in EUR m
2016e
2017e
2018e
2019e
2020e
2021e
2022e
2023e
2024e
2025e
2026e
2027e
2028e
Sales Sales change
13.0 2.3 %
15.5 19.2 %
18.8 21.3 %
22.6 20.0 %
27.1 20.0 %
32.5 20.0 %
39.0 20.0 %
46.8 20.0 %
53.8 15.0 %
61.9 15.0 %
68.1 10.0 %
71.5 5.0 %
75.0 5.0 %
EBIT EBIT-margin
3.9 30.3 %
5.0 32.5 %
8.1 43.0 %
7.9 35.0 %
9.5 35.0 %
11.4 35.0 %
13.6 35.0 %
16.4 35.0 %
18.8 35.0 %
18.6 30.0 %
20.4 30.0 %
21.4 30.0 %
22.5 30.0 %
6.4 %
9.9 %
9.9 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
3.7
4.5
7.3
7.1
8.5
10.2
12.3
14.7
16.9
16.7
18.4
19.3
20.3
0.6 4.5 %
0.5 3.0 %
0.5 2.5 %
0.5 2.0 %
0.5 2.0 %
0.6 2.0 %
0.8 2.0 %
0.9 2.0 %
1.1 2.0 %
1.2 2.0 %
1.4 2.0 %
1.4 2.0 %
1.5 2.0 %
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1 2.5 19.2 %
0.6 2.5 16.1 %
0.6 2.5 13.2 %
0.2 0.5 2.0 %
0.5 0.5 2.0 %
0.6 0.6 2.0 %
0.6 0.8 2.0 %
0.7 0.9 2.0 %
0.4 1.1 2.0 %
0.4 1.2 2.0 %
0.1 1.4 2.0 %
-0.3 1.4 2.0 %
-0.4 1.5 2.0 %
Other
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Free Cash Flow (WACC Model)
1.7
1.9
4.7
6.9
8.0
9.6
11.6
14.0
16.5
16.3
18.3
19.6
20.7
PV of FCF
1.7
1.7
3.9
5.3
5.6
6.2
6.9
7.6
8.2
7.5
7.7
7.6
7.3
Tax rate (EBT) NOPAT Depreciation in % of Sales Changes in provisions Change in Liquidity from - Working Capital - Capex Capex in % of Sales
3.61 %
share of PVs
34.58 %
Model parameter
3.0 %
21 125 61.81 %
Valuation (m)
Derivation of WACC:
Derivation of Beta:
Debt ratio Cost of debt (after tax) Market return Risk free rate
0.00 % 4.2 % 7.00 % 1.50 %
Financial Strength Liquidity (share) Cyclicality Transparency Others
1.00 1.50 1.20 1.50 1.50
WACC
8.87 %
Beta
1.34
Present values 2028e Terminal Value Financial liabilities Pension liabilities Hybrid capital Minority interest Market val. of investments Liquidity Equity Value
77 125 3 0 0 0 0 1 201
No. of shares (m) Value per share (EUR)
2.2 89.78
Sensitivity Value per Share (EUR)
Beta WACC 1.52 9.9 % 1.43 9.4 % 1.39 9.1 % 1.34 8.9 % 1.29 8.6 % 1.25 8.4 % 1.16 7.9 %
Terminal Growth 2.25 % 2.50 % 70.14 71.45 76.30 77.89 79.73 81.49 83.43 85.38 87.44 89.60 91.78 94.20 101.66 104.71
2.75 % 72.85 79.60 83.38 87.49 91.96 96.83 108.06
3.00 % 74.35 81.44 85.43 89.78 94.52 99.71 111.74
3.25 % 75.97 83.43 87.66 92.27 97.32 102.88 115.83
3.50 % 77.71 85.60 90.08 94.99 100.39 106.36 120.39
3.75 % 79.60 87.95 92.73 97.98 103.78 110.22 125.49
Beta 1.52 1.43 1.39 1.34 1.29 1.25 1.16
WACC 9.9 % 9.4 % 9.1 % 8.9 % 8.6 % 8.4 % 7.9 %
Delta EBIT-margin -1.5 pp -1.0 pp -0.5 pp +0.0 pp +0.5 pp +1.0 pp +1.5 pp 70.56 71.83 73.09 74.35 75.61 76.88 78.14 77.30 78.68 80.06 81.44 82.82 84.20 85.58 81.09 82.54 83.99 85.43 86.88 88.33 89.78 89.78 85.22 86.74 88.26 91.30 92.82 94.34 89.72 91.32 92.92 94.52 96.12 97.72 99.32 94.65 96.34 98.03 99.71 101.40 103.09 104.77 106.08 107.97 109.86 111.74 113.63 115.52 117.41
High demand for cloud solutions are the basis for the revenue and earnings expectations. Growth stimulus is expected in the SaaS/Cloud area, which should continually increase its share of revenues. A tax-optimised company structure and high loss carry-forwards have an additional positive effect. Comment: Buying of real estate in 2014.
COMMENT
P u bl i s h e d 1 4 . 0 9 . 2 0 1 6
3
InVision Valuation Price / Book Book value per share ex intangibles EV / Sales EV / EBITDA EV / EBIT EV / EBIT adj.* P / FCF P/E P / E adj.* Dividend Yield Free Cash Flow Yield Potential
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
6.6 x 1.53 2.0 x 22.9 x 32.7 x 32.7 x 32.8 x 46.0 x 43.1 x n.a. 2.9 %
8.1 x 2.02 2.8 x 18.4 x 21.6 x 21.6 x 14.3 x 27.5 x 24.7 x n.a. 5.3 %
11.7 x 3.51 7.3 x 21.9 x 23.9 x 23.9 x n.a. 23.6 x 23.1 x 2.2 % -1.7 %
12.3 x 3.53 8.2 x 32.6 x 39.0 x 39.0 x n.a. 47.9 x 47.4 x n.a. 0.3 %
7.7 x 5.02 7.1 x 20.3 x 23.3 x 23.3 x 54.4 x 25.2 x 25.2 x n.a. 1.9 %
5.5 x 7.04 5.8 x 16.3 x 17.8 x 17.8 x 47.9 x 20.2 x 20.2 x n.a. 2.8 %
3.9 x 10.25 4.6 x 10.0 x 10.6 x 10.6 x 19.8 x 12.7 x 12.7 x n.a. 6.1 %
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
*Adjustments made for: -
Company Specific Items Market Potential Cloud Computing (Gartner) Market Potential Cloud Computing (Forrester)
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
4
InVision Consolidated profit & loss In EUR m
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
13.2 6.8 %
13.6 2.5 %
13.4 -1.1 %
12.7 -5.2 %
13.0 2.3 %
15.5 19.2 %
18.8 21.3 %
0.0 0.0 13.2 0.3 12.9 97.4 %
0.0 0.0 13.6 0.3 13.2 97.6 %
0.0 0.0 13.4 0.2 13.2 98.2 %
0.0 0.0 12.7 0.4 12.3 97.1 %
0.0 0.0 13.0 0.3 12.7 98.0 %
0.0 0.0 15.5 0.2 15.3 98.5 %
0.0 0.0 18.8 0.2 18.6 99.0 %
Personnel expenses Other operating income Other operating expenses Unfrequent items EBITDA Margin
8.6 0.3 3.5 0.0 1.2 8.8 %
7.6 0.2 3.7 0.0 2.1 15.2 %
6.5 0.8 2.9 0.0 4.5 33.6 %
6.3 0.1 2.9 0.0 3.2 25.2 %
6.0 0.4 2.6 0.0 4.5 34.8 %
7.3 0.2 2.7 0.0 5.5 35.5 %
7.3 0.2 2.9 0.0 8.6 45.5 %
Depreciation of fixed assets EBITA Amortisation of intangible assets Goodwill amortization EBIT Margin EBIT adj.
0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.2 % 0.8
0.3 1.8 0.0 0.0 1.8 12.9 % 1.8
0.4 4.1 -0.1 0.0 4.1 30.8 % 4.1
0.5 2.7 0.0 0.0 2.7 21.1 % 2.7
0.6 3.9 0.0 0.0 3.9 30.3 % 3.9
0.5 5.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 32.5 % 5.0
0.5 8.1 0.0 0.0 8.1 43.0 % 8.1
Interest income Interest expenses Other financial income (loss) EBT Margin
0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.7 5.3 %
0.0 0.0 -0.2 1.5 11.4 %
0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 30.2 %
0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 21.0 %
0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 30.0 %
0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 32.5 %
0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 43.0 %
Total taxes Net income from continuing operations Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) Net income before minorities Minority interest Net income Margin
-0.1 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.2 0.6 4.7 %
0.0 1.6 0.0 1.6 0.0 1.6 11.4 %
-0.2 4.2 0.0 4.2 0.0 4.2 31.3 %
0.5 2.1 0.0 2.1 0.0 2.1 16.8 %
0.3 3.7 0.0 3.7 0.0 3.7 28.1 %
0.5 4.5 0.0 4.5 0.0 4.5 29.3 %
0.8 7.3 0.0 7.3 0.0 7.3 38.7 %
2.2 0.29 0.31
2.2 0.71 0.79
2.2 1.90 1.94
2.2 0.97 0.98
2.2 1.63 1.63
2.2 2.03 2.03
2.2 3.26 3.26
Sales Change Sales yoy Increase / decrease in inventory Own work capitalised Total Sales Material Expenses Gross profit Gross profit margin
Number of shares, average EPS EPS adj. *Adjustments made for:
Guidance: 2016 revenues of at least EUR 12m, EBIT EUR 3.5m - 4m
Financial Ratios Total Operating Costs / Sales Operating Leverage EBITDA / Interest expenses Tax rate (EBT) Dividend Payout Ratio Sales per Employee
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
91.2 % n.a. n.a. -20.7 % 0.0 % 95,165
84.8 % 46.2 x n.a. -0.6 % 0.0 % 116,867
66.4 % -124.0 x n.a. -3.7 % 52.5 % 128,931
74.8 % 6.7 x n.a. 20.1 % 0.0 % 139,644
65.2 % 20.6 x n.a. 6.4 % 0.0 % 142,857
64.5 % 1.4 x n.a. 9.9 % 0.0 % 170,330
54.5 % 2.8 x n.a. 9.9 % 0.0 % 206,593
Sales, EBITDA
Operating Performance
in EUR m
in %
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
Performance per Share
Source: Warburg Research
5
InVision Consolidated balance sheet In EUR m
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
1.0 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 2.8 2.5 1.6 6.9 8.2
0.9 0.9 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 1.6 4.6 1.1 7.3 8.9
0.7 0.7 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 2.0 4.4 1.3 7.7 15.2
0.6 0.6 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.0 2.8 1.4 0.7 4.8 14.2
0.7 0.7 0.0 10.6 0.0 0.0 11.3 0.0 2.8 2.1 0.7 5.5 16.8
0.8 0.8 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 13.3 0.0 3.4 3.0 0.7 7.1 20.4
0.9 0.9 0.0 14.4 0.0 0.0 15.3 0.0 4.1 6.7 0.7 11.4 26.8
2.2 21.2 0.0 -19.0 4.4 0.0 4.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 3.9 8.2
2.2 9.2 1.3 -7.5 5.2 0.0 5.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.6 8.9
2.2 8.0 1.3 -3.1 8.5 0.0 8.5 0.9 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.8 15.2
2.2 1.2 0.0 4.9 8.4 0.0 8.4 0.6 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.9 14.2
2.2 1.2 3.7 4.8 11.9 0.0 11.9 0.6 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.9 16.8
2.2 1.2 8.2 4.9 16.6 0.0 16.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.1 1.9 3.9 20.4
2.2 1.2 15.5 4.9 23.8 0.0 23.8 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.0 26.8
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
4.5 x 6.9 x 46.5 %
7.1 x 20.1 x 97.5 %
1.5 x 1.7 x 55.7 %
1.1 x 1.2 x 22.6 %
1.0 x 1.1 x 32.3 %
1.0 x 1.0 x 34.1 %
1.0 x 1.1 x 47.5 %
51.2 % 15.2 % 16.4 %
n.a. 32.2 % 35.8 %
97.9 % 61.3 % 62.5 %
23.4 % 25.3 % 25.6 %
33.1 % 36.0 % 36.0 %
33.7 % 31.9 % 31.9 %
45.2 % 36.0 % 36.0 %
-2.5 -2.5 -56.6 % n.a. 2.0 1.5
-4.6 -4.6 -87.2 % n.a. 2.4 2.0
-0.4 -0.4 -4.6 % n.a. 3.8 3.5
1.8 1.8 22.0 % 57.6 % 3.8 3.5
0.2 0.2 1.3 % 3.5 % 5.3 5.0
-1.8 -1.8 -10.6 % n.a. 7.4 7.0
-6.4 -6.4 -26.9 % n.a. 10.7 10.2
Assets Goodwill and other intangible assets thereof other intangible assets thereof Goodwill Property, plant and equipment Financial assets Other long-term assets Fixed assets Inventories Accounts receivable Liquid assets Other short-term assets Current assets Total Assets Liabilities and shareholders' equity Subscribed capital Capital reserve Retained earnings Other equity components Shareholders' equity Minority interest Total equity Provisions thereof provisions for pensions and similar obligations Financial liabilities (total) thereof short-term financial liabilities Accounts payable Other liabilities Liabilities Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
Financial Ratios Efficiency of Capital Employment Operating Assets Turnover Capital Employed Turnover ROA Return on Capital ROCE (NOPAT) ROE Adj. ROE Balance sheet quality Net Debt Net Financial Debt Net Gearing Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA Book Value / Share Book value per share ex intangibles
ROCE Development
Source: Warburg Research
Net debt
Book Value per Share
in EUR m
in EUR
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
6
InVision Consolidated cash flow statement In EUR m
Net income Depreciation of fixed assets Amortisation of goodwill Amortisation of intangible assets Increase/decrease in long-term provisions Other non-cash income and expenses Cash Flow Increase / decrease in inventory Increase / decrease in accounts receivable Increase / decrease in accounts payable Increase / decrease in other working capital positions Increase / decrease in working capital (total) Net cash provided by operating activities Investments in intangible assets Investments in property, plant and equipment Payments for acquisitions Financial investments Income from asset disposals Net cash provided by investing activities Change in financial liabilities Dividends paid Purchase of own shares Capital measures Other Net cash provided by financing activities Change in liquid funds Effects of exchange-rate changes on cash Cash and cash equivalent at end of period
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.0 1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.0 2.5
1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.5 1.7 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 3.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.9 2.1 0.0 4.6
4.2 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 3.7 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.6 3.1 0.0 6.3 0.0 -1.0 0.2 -7.2 4.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.9 0.0 2.9 -1.2 0.0 3.4
2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.7 3.1 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0 -0.7 2.3 0.0 2.4 0.0 1.0 0.0 -1.4 -0.8 0.0 0.0 -2.2 0.0 -3.0 -2.0 0.0 1.4
3.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 4.2 0.1 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.7 0.0 2.1
4.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.6 4.4 0.1 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.9 0.0 3.0
7.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 -0.7 0.1 0.0 -0.6 7.2 0.1 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 3.7 0.0 6.7
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
0.7 6.7 % 0.8 142.9 % 0.6 % 0.0 %
3.0 21.8 % 2.0 190.8 % 0.3 % n.a.
-3.3 -24.3 % -1.7 -77.6 % -0.7 % 0.0 %
0.0 -0.3 % 0.3 -1.7 % -1.4 % 0.0 %
1.7 13.0 % 1.8 46.2 % -2.3 % 0.0 %
1.9 12.3 % 2.5 42.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
4.7 24.8 % 5.3 64.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
3.0 % 4.2 % 114.3 % 23.9 % 1889.4 % 28.0 x 78 161 -145
0.5 % 0.5 % 20.2 % 14.4 % 420.1 % 28.5 x 42 420 -405
47.3 % 47.3 % 1674.5 % 11.6 % 1486.2 % 246879.0 x 55 202 -202
18.6 % 18.6 % 450.1 % 17.8 % 2370.9 % 373738.0 x 79 114 -114
19.2 % 19.2 % 425.6 % 20.5 % 2800.0 % n.a. 79 140 n.a.
16.1 % 16.1 % 535.5 % 19.4 % 3400.0 % n.a. 80 157 n.a.
13.2 % 13.2 % 529.8 % 19.1 % 2050.0 % n.a. 80 388 n.a.
Financial Ratios Cash Flow FCF Free Cash Flow / Sales Free Cash Flow Potential Free Cash Flow / Net Profit Interest Received / Avg. Cash Interest Paid / Avg. Debt Management of Funds Investment ratio Maint. Capex / Sales Capex / Dep Avg. Working Capital / Sales Trade Debtors / Trade Creditors Inventory Turnover Receivables collection period (days) Payables payment period (days) Cash conversion cycle (Days)
CAPEX and Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow Generation
Working Capital
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
7
InVision LEGAL DISCLAIMER This research report (“investment recommendation” or “recommendation”) was prepared by the Warburg Research GmbH, a fully owned subsidiary of the M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and is passed on by the M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA. It contains selected information and does not purport to be complete. The report is based on publicly available information and data ("the information") believed to be accurate and complete. Warburg Research GmbH neither examines the information for accuracy and completeness, nor guarantees its accuracy and completeness. Possible errors or incompleteness of the information do not constitute grounds for liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA or Warburg Research GmbH for damages of any kind whatsoever, and M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are not liable for indirect and/or direct and/or consequential damages. In particular, neither M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA nor Warburg Research GmbH are liable for the statements, plans or other details contained in these analyses concerning the examined companies, their affiliated companies, strategies, economic situations, market and competitive situations, regulatory environment, etc. Although due care has been taken in compiling this research report, it cannot be excluded that it is incomplete or contains errors. M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH, their shareholders and employees are not liable for the accuracy and completeness of the statements, estimations and the conclusions derived from the information contained in this document. Provided a research report is being transmitted in connection with an existing contractual relationship, i.e. financial advisory or similar services, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH shall be restricted to gross negligence and wilful misconduct. In case of failure in essential tasks, M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are liable for normal negligence. In any case, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH is limited to typical, expectable damages. This research report does not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer for the purchase or sale of any security. Partners, directors or employees of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA, Warburg Research GmbH or affiliated companies may serve in a position of responsibility, i.e. on the board of directors of companies mentioned in the report. Opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. All rights reserved.
COPYRIGHT NOTICE This work including all its parts is protected by copyright. Any use beyond the limits provided by copyright law without permission is prohibited and punishable. This applies, in particular, to reproductions, translations, microfilming, and storage and processing on electronic media of the entire content or parts thereof.
DISCLOSURE ACCORDING TO §34B OF THE GERMAN SECURITIES TRADING ACT (WHPG), THE ORDINANCE ON THE ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS (FINANV) AND MAR INCL. COMMISSION DELEGATED REGULATION (EU) 2016/958 The valuation underlying the investment recommendation for the company analysed here is based on generally accepted and widely used methods of fundamental analysis, such as e.g. DCF Model, Free Cash Flow Potential, Peer Group Comparison or Sum of the Parts Model. The result of this fundamental valuation is modified to take into consideration the analyst’s assessment as regards the expected development of investor sentiment and its impact on the share price. Independent of the applied valuation methods, there is the risk that the price target will not be met, for instance because of unforeseen changes in demand for the company’s products, changes in management, technology, economic development, interest rate development, operating and/or material costs, competitive pressure, supervisory law, exchange rate, tax rate etc. For investments in foreign markets and instruments there are further risks, generally based on exchange rate changes or changes in political and social conditions. This commentary reflects the opinion of the relevant author at the point in time of its compilation. A change in the fundamental factors underlying the valuation can mean that the valuation is subsequently no longer accurate. Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this commentary follows is not determined in advance. Additional internal and organisational arrangements to prevent or to deal with conflicts of interest have been implemented. Among these are the spatial separation of Warburg Research GmbH from M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and the creation of areas of confidentiality. This prevents the exchange of information, which could form the basis of conflicts of interest for Warburg Research in terms of the analysed issuers or their financial instruments. The analysts of Warburg Research GmbH do not receive a gratuity – directly or indirectly – from the investment banking activities of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA or of any company within the Warburg Group. All prices of financial instruments given in this financial analysis are the closing prices on the last stock-market trading day before the publication date stated, unless another point in time is explicitly stated. M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are subject to the supervision of the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, BaFin. M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA is additionally subject to the supervision of the European Central Bank (ECB).
SOURCES All data and consensus estimates have been obtained from FactSet except where stated otherwise.
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
8
InVision Additional information for clients in the United States
1. This research report (the “Report”) is a product of Warburg Research GmbH, Germany, a fully owned subsidiary of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA, Germany (in the following collectively “Warburg”). Warburg is the employer of the research analyst(s), who have prepared the Report. The research analyst(s) reside outside the United States and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer and therefore are not subject to the supervision of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer. 2. The Report is provided in the United States for distribution solely to "major U.S. institutional investors" under Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. 3. Any recipient of the Report should effect transactions in the securities discussed in the Report only through J.P.P. Euro-Securities, Inc., Delaware. 4. J.P.P. Euro-Securities, Inc. does not accept or receive any compensation of any kind for the dissemination of the research reports from Warburg.
Reference in accordance with section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), the Ordinance on the Analysis of Financial Instruments (FinAnV), MAR and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) regarding possible conflicts of interest with companies analysed: -1-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, or an employee of one of these companies responsible for the compilation of the research, hold a share of more than 5% of the equity capital of the analysed company.
-2-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, within the last twelve months participated in the management of a consortium for an issue in the course of a public offering of such financial instruments, which are, or the issuer of which is, the subject of the financial analysis.
-3-
Companies affiliated with Warburg Research manage financial instruments, which are, or the issuers of which are, subject of the financial analysis, in a market based on the provision of buy or sell contracts.
-4-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, reached an agreement with the issuer to provide investment services and the relevant agreement was in force in the last 12 months or an obligation to pay or to receive compensation existed for this period based on the agreement - provided that this disclosure does not result in the disclosure of confidential business information.
-5-
The company compiling the analysis or an affiliated company had reached an agreement on the compilation of the financial analysis with the analysed company.
-6-
Companies affiliated with Warburg Research regularly trade financial instruments of the analysed company or derivatives of these.
-6a-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, holds a net long position of more than 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the analysed company.
-6b-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, holds a net short position of more than 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the analysed company.
-6c-
The issuer holds shares of more than 5% of the total issued capital of Warburg Research or an affiliated company.
-7-
The company preparing the analysis as well as its affiliated companies and employees have other important interests in relation to the analysed company, such as, for example, the exercising of mandates at analysed companies.
This report has been made accessible to the company analysed. Company
Disclosure
Link to the historical price targets and rating changes (last 12 months)
InVision
3, 5
http://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/DE0005859698.htm
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
9
InVision INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION Investment recommendation: expected direction of the share price development of the financial instrument up to the given price target in the opinion of the analyst who covers this financial instrument. -B-
Buy:
The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to rise over the next 12 months.
-H-
Hold:
The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to remain mostly flat over the next 12 months.
-S-
Sell:
The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to fall over the next 12 months.
“-“
Rating suspended:
The available information currently does not permit an evaluation of the company.
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING Rating
Number of stocks
% of Universe
Buy
117
62
Hold
64
34
Sell
7
4
Rating suspended
1
1
189
100
Total
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING I I taking into account only those companies which were provided with major investment services in the last twelve months. Rating
Number of stocks
% of Universe
Buy
26
72
Hold
9
25
Sell
1
3
Rating suspended
0
0
36
100
Total
PRICE AND RATING HISTORY INVISION AS OF 14.09.2016 Markings in the chart show rating changes by Warburg Research GmbH in the last 12 months. Every marking details the date and closing price on the day of the rating change.
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
10
InVision EQUITIES Roland Rapelius
+49 40 3282-2673
Head of Equities
[email protected]
RESEARCH Michael Heider
+49 40 309537-280
Head of Research
[email protected]
Henner Rüschmeier
+49 40 309537-270
Head of Research
[email protected]
Lucas Boventer
+49 40 309537-290
Renewables, Internet, Media
[email protected]
[email protected]
J. Moritz Rieser
+49 40 309537-260
Real Estate
[email protected]
+49 40 309537-155 [email protected]
Jörg Philipp Frey
+49 40 309537-258
Retail, Consumer Goods
[email protected]
Harald Hof
+49 40 309537-125
Medtech
[email protected]
Ulrich Huwald
+49 40 309537-255
Malte Schaumann
+49 40 309537-256 [email protected]
[email protected]
Marc-René Tonn
+49 40 309537-259
Automobiles, Car Suppliers
Björn Voss Alexander Wahl
Eggert Kuls
+49 40 309537-250
Chemicals, Agriculture
+49 40 309537-257 [email protected]
[email protected]
Oliver Schwarz
Steel, Car Suppliers
Thilo Kleibauer
+49 40 309537-170
Technology
[email protected]
Engineering
+49 40 309537-130
Telco, Internet, Media
Cap. Goods, Renewables
+49 40 309537-120
Retail, Consumer Goods
Jochen Reichert
Arash Roshan Zamir
[email protected]
Health Care, Pharma
[email protected]
+49 40 309537-175
Felix Ellmann Software, IT
+49 40 309537-246
Banks, Financial Services
[email protected]
Christian Cohrs Engineering, Logistics
Andreas Pläsier
[email protected]
+49 40 309537-254 [email protected]
+49 40 309537-230
Other
[email protected]
Andreas Wolf
+49 40 309537-140
Software, IT
[email protected]
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY SALES Holger Nass
+49 40 3282-2669
Head of Equity Sales, USA
[email protected]
Klaus Schilling
+49 40 3282-2664
Dep. Head of Equity Sales, GER
[email protected]
Tim Beckmann
+49 40 3282-2665
United Kingdom
[email protected]
Lyubka Bogdanova
+49 69 5050-7411
United Kingdom, Australia
[email protected]
Jens Buchmüller
+49 69 5050-7415
Scandinavia, Austria
[email protected]
Paul Dontenwill
Michael Kriszun
+49 40 3282-2695
United Kingdom
[email protected]
Marc Niemann
+49 40 3282-2660
Germany
[email protected]
Fabian Roggemann
+49 40 3282-2667
USA
[email protected]
Sanjay Oberoi
+49 69 5050-7410
United Kingdom
[email protected]
Juliane Willenbruch
+49 40 3282-2694
Roadshow/Marketing
[email protected]
+49 40 3282-2666
USA
[email protected]
Matthias Fritsch
+49 40 3282-2696
United Kingdom
[email protected]
SALES TRADING Oliver Merckel
+49 40 3282-2634
Head of Sales Trading
[email protected]
Michael Ilgenstein
+49 40 3282-2700
Sales Trading
[email protected]
Bastian Quast
Jörg Treptow
+49 40 3262-2658
Sales Trading
[email protected]
Jan Walter
+49 40 3262-2662
Sales Trading
[email protected]
+49 40 3282-2701
Sales Trading
[email protected]
MACRO RESEARCH Carsten Klude
+49 40 3282-2572
Macro Research
[email protected]
Dr. Christian Jasperneite Investment Strategy
+49 40 3282-2439 [email protected]
Our research can be found under: Warburg Research
research.mmwarburg.com/en/index.html
Bloomberg FactSet
MMWA GO www.factset.com
Thomson
www.thomson.com
Reuters
www.knowledge.reuters.com
Capital IQ
www.capitaliq.com
For access please contact: Andrea Schaper Sales Assistance
+49 40 3282-2632 [email protected]
COMMENT
Kerstin Muthig
+49 40 3282-2703
Sales Assistance
Published 14.09.2016
[email protected]
11
Buy EUR
90.00
EUR
89.78
Bloomberg: Reuters: ISIN:
Market Snapshot:
EUR m
Shareholders:
(EUR 100.00)
Price
EUR 41.00
Upside
119.5 %
Share data:
DCF:
Market cap: No. of shares (m): EV: Freefloat MC: Ø Trad. Vol. (30d):
91.6 2.2 91.8 26.1 8.51 th
Description: IVX GR IVXG DE0005859698
Freefloat InVision Holding GmbH Peter Bollenbeck Armand Zohari Fidelity
28.5 % 21.9 % 17.0 % 17.0 % 4.3 %
InVision is a leading supplier of software for WFM and for online training
Risk Profile (WRe):
2016e
Beta: Price / Book: Equity Ratio: Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA: Net Debt / EBITDA:
1.3 7.7 x 71 % 0.0 x 0.0 x
Rapid build-up of personnel During a recent management meeting/company visit (07.09.16), the future development of the company was discussed: After moving into its new office building (Maki Solitaire) located in Dusseldorf’s Medienhafen area, which has been completely transformed, a Silicon Valley-like working environment has been created, which should help to attract top-class employees. In this context, a comprehensive build-up of personnel is planned (from 88 previously to about 111 positions currently, target of 120), as already referred to in our commentary dated 29.07.16 (“Earnings doubled”). These recruitment efforts, however, are expected to impact personnel costs earlier than initially expected. As a consequence, the cost situation was discussed during the meeting and will be adjusted on the estimates side. The now more offensive staffing policy will become visible in 2017 and especially in the long term. The long-term growth assumptions (DCF, WRe) will be increased slightly and the long-term margin level will be reduced based on the plan to continue increasing staff. However as high risk discounts are expected for the revenue impact of the new personnel especially in the long term, the adjustment has a slightly negative overall impact on the DCF model. Significant positive effects of the current increase in personnel are not taken into account for reasons of caution. While there is reason to assume that in the course of the staff expansion the cloud business will also grow more significantly in the long term, from today’s perspective visibility is not sufficient to plan for this. The long-term estimates in particular seem defensive in light of the build-up of personnel. The valuation of the share remains attractive. With a PER of less than 20 (2017) and an expected growth rate of 160%, a remarkable discrepancy can still be seen in the 2017/18 results in terms of the determination of the growth potential. The InVision share continues to be rated Buy with a price target of EUR 90 (100).
Changes in Estimates: FY End: 31.12. in EUR m
Comment on Changes:
2016e (old)
+/-
2017e (old)
+/-
2018e (old)
+/-
13.0 4.1 1.66 0.00
0.0 % -3.2 % -1.8 % 0.0 %
15.5 5.6 2.31 0.00
0.0 % -10.5 % -12.1 % 0.0 %
18.8 8.1 3.30 0.00
0.0 % 0.0 % -1.2 % 0.0 %
Sales EBIT EPS DPS
FY End: 31.12. in EUR m
Rel. Performance vs CDAX: 1 month:
2.3 %
6 months:
-8.0 %
Year to date: Trailing 12 months:
-18.5 % -2.5 %
Company events: 10.11.16
Q3
CAGR (15-18e)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
13.2 6.8 % 97.4 % 1.2 8.8 % 0.8 6.2 % 0.6
13.6 2.5 % 97.6 % 2.1 15.2 % 1.8 12.9 % 1.6
13.4 -1.1 % 98.2 % 4.5 33.6 % 4.1 30.8 % 4.2
12.7 -5.2 % 97.1 % 3.2 25.2 % 2.7 21.1 % 2.1
13.0 2.3 % 98.0 % 4.5 34.8 % 3.9 30.3 % 3.7
15.5 19.2 % 98.5 % 5.5 35.5 % 5.0 32.5 % 4.5
18.8 21.3 % 99.0 % 8.6 45.5 % 8.1 43.0 % 7.3
0.29 0.31 0.00 n.a. 0.34 3.1 %
0.71 0.79 0.00 n.a. 1.36 7.0 %
1.90 1.94 1.00 2.2 % -1.48 -3.3 %
0.97 0.98 0.00 n.a. -0.02 0.0 %
1.63 1.63 0.00 n.a. 0.75 1.8 %
2.03 2.03 0.00 n.a. 0.86 2.1 %
3.26 3.26 0.00 n.a. 2.09 5.1 %
2.0 x 22.9 x 32.7 x 46.0 x 43.1 x 2.9 %
2.8 x 18.4 x 21.6 x 27.5 x 24.7 x 5.3 %
7.3 x 21.9 x 23.9 x 23.6 x 23.1 x -1.7 %
8.2 x 32.6 x 39.0 x 47.9 x 47.4 x 0.3 %
7.1 x 20.3 x 23.3 x 25.2 x 25.2 x 1.9 %
5.8 x 16.3 x 17.8 x 20.2 x 20.2 x 2.8 %
4.6 x 10.0 x 10.6 x 12.7 x 12.7 x 6.1 %
-2.5 -4.6 -0.4 1.8 51.2 % n.a. 97.9 % 23.4 % 2016 revenues of at least EUR 12m, EBIT EUR 3.5m - 4m
0.2 33.1 %
-1.8 33.7 %
-6.4 45.2 %
Sales Change Sales yoy Gross profit margin EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Net income
13.9 %
EPS EPS adj. DPS Dividend Yield FCFPS FCF / Market cap
49.8 % 49.3 % -
EV / Sales EV / EBITDA EV / EBIT P/E P / E adj. FCF Yield Potential Net Debt ROCE (NOPAT) Guidance:
Personnel costs will reach an elevated level earlier than initially expected and thus reduce the earnings expectations for 2017. Long term (2019 and beyond), a continuation of higher personnel cost ratios is expected. Based on defensive discounting, this has a negative effect on the DCF value.
38.8 % 44.6 % 50.6 %
Analyst
F el i x El l ma n n [email protected] m +49 40 309537-120
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016 08:15
1
InVision Sales development
Cloud Computing
EBIT development
in EUR m
in USD
in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
Company Background InVision supplies call centre employees with workforce management software and e-learning solutions Since 2011 InVision has been providing new cloud-based software products (software as a service, SaaS, cloud) which represent an increasingly important source of earnings for the company
Competitive Quality InVision has many years of experience in the call centre and WFM field Cloud-based products were further developed in 2011, making InVision a first mover in the field of cloud-based WFM solutions. This was also the case for the firm's second product range, cloud-based training The products in the field of SaaS possesses a very modern software architecture and structure (decentralised approach) Significant market entry barriers posed are development costs (ca. EUR 30m), acquired customer base and technological lead (first mover) The SaaS model is mainly of interest for the huge market of smaller users.
EBT development
Sales by segments
Net income development
in EUR m
2016e; in %
in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
2
InVision DCF model Detailed forecast period
Transitional period
Term. Value
Figures in EUR m
2016e
2017e
2018e
2019e
2020e
2021e
2022e
2023e
2024e
2025e
2026e
2027e
2028e
Sales Sales change
13.0 2.3 %
15.5 19.2 %
18.8 21.3 %
22.6 20.0 %
27.1 20.0 %
32.5 20.0 %
39.0 20.0 %
46.8 20.0 %
53.8 15.0 %
61.9 15.0 %
68.1 10.0 %
71.5 5.0 %
75.0 5.0 %
EBIT EBIT-margin
3.9 30.3 %
5.0 32.5 %
8.1 43.0 %
7.9 35.0 %
9.5 35.0 %
11.4 35.0 %
13.6 35.0 %
16.4 35.0 %
18.8 35.0 %
18.6 30.0 %
20.4 30.0 %
21.4 30.0 %
22.5 30.0 %
6.4 %
9.9 %
9.9 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
3.7
4.5
7.3
7.1
8.5
10.2
12.3
14.7
16.9
16.7
18.4
19.3
20.3
0.6 4.5 %
0.5 3.0 %
0.5 2.5 %
0.5 2.0 %
0.5 2.0 %
0.6 2.0 %
0.8 2.0 %
0.9 2.0 %
1.1 2.0 %
1.2 2.0 %
1.4 2.0 %
1.4 2.0 %
1.5 2.0 %
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1 2.5 19.2 %
0.6 2.5 16.1 %
0.6 2.5 13.2 %
0.2 0.5 2.0 %
0.5 0.5 2.0 %
0.6 0.6 2.0 %
0.6 0.8 2.0 %
0.7 0.9 2.0 %
0.4 1.1 2.0 %
0.4 1.2 2.0 %
0.1 1.4 2.0 %
-0.3 1.4 2.0 %
-0.4 1.5 2.0 %
Other
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Free Cash Flow (WACC Model)
1.7
1.9
4.7
6.9
8.0
9.6
11.6
14.0
16.5
16.3
18.3
19.6
20.7
PV of FCF
1.7
1.7
3.9
5.3
5.6
6.2
6.9
7.6
8.2
7.5
7.7
7.6
7.3
Tax rate (EBT) NOPAT Depreciation in % of Sales Changes in provisions Change in Liquidity from - Working Capital - Capex Capex in % of Sales
3.61 %
share of PVs
34.58 %
Model parameter
3.0 %
21 125 61.81 %
Valuation (m)
Derivation of WACC:
Derivation of Beta:
Debt ratio Cost of debt (after tax) Market return Risk free rate
0.00 % 4.2 % 7.00 % 1.50 %
Financial Strength Liquidity (share) Cyclicality Transparency Others
1.00 1.50 1.20 1.50 1.50
WACC
8.87 %
Beta
1.34
Present values 2028e Terminal Value Financial liabilities Pension liabilities Hybrid capital Minority interest Market val. of investments Liquidity Equity Value
77 125 3 0 0 0 0 1 201
No. of shares (m) Value per share (EUR)
2.2 89.78
Sensitivity Value per Share (EUR)
Beta WACC 1.52 9.9 % 1.43 9.4 % 1.39 9.1 % 1.34 8.9 % 1.29 8.6 % 1.25 8.4 % 1.16 7.9 %
Terminal Growth 2.25 % 2.50 % 70.14 71.45 76.30 77.89 79.73 81.49 83.43 85.38 87.44 89.60 91.78 94.20 101.66 104.71
2.75 % 72.85 79.60 83.38 87.49 91.96 96.83 108.06
3.00 % 74.35 81.44 85.43 89.78 94.52 99.71 111.74
3.25 % 75.97 83.43 87.66 92.27 97.32 102.88 115.83
3.50 % 77.71 85.60 90.08 94.99 100.39 106.36 120.39
3.75 % 79.60 87.95 92.73 97.98 103.78 110.22 125.49
Beta 1.52 1.43 1.39 1.34 1.29 1.25 1.16
WACC 9.9 % 9.4 % 9.1 % 8.9 % 8.6 % 8.4 % 7.9 %
Delta EBIT-margin -1.5 pp -1.0 pp -0.5 pp +0.0 pp +0.5 pp +1.0 pp +1.5 pp 70.56 71.83 73.09 74.35 75.61 76.88 78.14 77.30 78.68 80.06 81.44 82.82 84.20 85.58 81.09 82.54 83.99 85.43 86.88 88.33 89.78 89.78 85.22 86.74 88.26 91.30 92.82 94.34 89.72 91.32 92.92 94.52 96.12 97.72 99.32 94.65 96.34 98.03 99.71 101.40 103.09 104.77 106.08 107.97 109.86 111.74 113.63 115.52 117.41
High demand for cloud solutions are the basis for the revenue and earnings expectations. Growth stimulus is expected in the SaaS/Cloud area, which should continually increase its share of revenues. A tax-optimised company structure and high loss carry-forwards have an additional positive effect. Comment: Buying of real estate in 2014.
COMMENT
P u bl i s h e d 1 4 . 0 9 . 2 0 1 6
3
InVision Valuation Price / Book Book value per share ex intangibles EV / Sales EV / EBITDA EV / EBIT EV / EBIT adj.* P / FCF P/E P / E adj.* Dividend Yield Free Cash Flow Yield Potential
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
6.6 x 1.53 2.0 x 22.9 x 32.7 x 32.7 x 32.8 x 46.0 x 43.1 x n.a. 2.9 %
8.1 x 2.02 2.8 x 18.4 x 21.6 x 21.6 x 14.3 x 27.5 x 24.7 x n.a. 5.3 %
11.7 x 3.51 7.3 x 21.9 x 23.9 x 23.9 x n.a. 23.6 x 23.1 x 2.2 % -1.7 %
12.3 x 3.53 8.2 x 32.6 x 39.0 x 39.0 x n.a. 47.9 x 47.4 x n.a. 0.3 %
7.7 x 5.02 7.1 x 20.3 x 23.3 x 23.3 x 54.4 x 25.2 x 25.2 x n.a. 1.9 %
5.5 x 7.04 5.8 x 16.3 x 17.8 x 17.8 x 47.9 x 20.2 x 20.2 x n.a. 2.8 %
3.9 x 10.25 4.6 x 10.0 x 10.6 x 10.6 x 19.8 x 12.7 x 12.7 x n.a. 6.1 %
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
*Adjustments made for: -
Company Specific Items Market Potential Cloud Computing (Gartner) Market Potential Cloud Computing (Forrester)
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
4
InVision Consolidated profit & loss In EUR m
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
13.2 6.8 %
13.6 2.5 %
13.4 -1.1 %
12.7 -5.2 %
13.0 2.3 %
15.5 19.2 %
18.8 21.3 %
0.0 0.0 13.2 0.3 12.9 97.4 %
0.0 0.0 13.6 0.3 13.2 97.6 %
0.0 0.0 13.4 0.2 13.2 98.2 %
0.0 0.0 12.7 0.4 12.3 97.1 %
0.0 0.0 13.0 0.3 12.7 98.0 %
0.0 0.0 15.5 0.2 15.3 98.5 %
0.0 0.0 18.8 0.2 18.6 99.0 %
Personnel expenses Other operating income Other operating expenses Unfrequent items EBITDA Margin
8.6 0.3 3.5 0.0 1.2 8.8 %
7.6 0.2 3.7 0.0 2.1 15.2 %
6.5 0.8 2.9 0.0 4.5 33.6 %
6.3 0.1 2.9 0.0 3.2 25.2 %
6.0 0.4 2.6 0.0 4.5 34.8 %
7.3 0.2 2.7 0.0 5.5 35.5 %
7.3 0.2 2.9 0.0 8.6 45.5 %
Depreciation of fixed assets EBITA Amortisation of intangible assets Goodwill amortization EBIT Margin EBIT adj.
0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.2 % 0.8
0.3 1.8 0.0 0.0 1.8 12.9 % 1.8
0.4 4.1 -0.1 0.0 4.1 30.8 % 4.1
0.5 2.7 0.0 0.0 2.7 21.1 % 2.7
0.6 3.9 0.0 0.0 3.9 30.3 % 3.9
0.5 5.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 32.5 % 5.0
0.5 8.1 0.0 0.0 8.1 43.0 % 8.1
Interest income Interest expenses Other financial income (loss) EBT Margin
0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.7 5.3 %
0.0 0.0 -0.2 1.5 11.4 %
0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 30.2 %
0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 21.0 %
0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 30.0 %
0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 32.5 %
0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 43.0 %
Total taxes Net income from continuing operations Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) Net income before minorities Minority interest Net income Margin
-0.1 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.2 0.6 4.7 %
0.0 1.6 0.0 1.6 0.0 1.6 11.4 %
-0.2 4.2 0.0 4.2 0.0 4.2 31.3 %
0.5 2.1 0.0 2.1 0.0 2.1 16.8 %
0.3 3.7 0.0 3.7 0.0 3.7 28.1 %
0.5 4.5 0.0 4.5 0.0 4.5 29.3 %
0.8 7.3 0.0 7.3 0.0 7.3 38.7 %
2.2 0.29 0.31
2.2 0.71 0.79
2.2 1.90 1.94
2.2 0.97 0.98
2.2 1.63 1.63
2.2 2.03 2.03
2.2 3.26 3.26
Sales Change Sales yoy Increase / decrease in inventory Own work capitalised Total Sales Material Expenses Gross profit Gross profit margin
Number of shares, average EPS EPS adj. *Adjustments made for:
Guidance: 2016 revenues of at least EUR 12m, EBIT EUR 3.5m - 4m
Financial Ratios Total Operating Costs / Sales Operating Leverage EBITDA / Interest expenses Tax rate (EBT) Dividend Payout Ratio Sales per Employee
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
91.2 % n.a. n.a. -20.7 % 0.0 % 95,165
84.8 % 46.2 x n.a. -0.6 % 0.0 % 116,867
66.4 % -124.0 x n.a. -3.7 % 52.5 % 128,931
74.8 % 6.7 x n.a. 20.1 % 0.0 % 139,644
65.2 % 20.6 x n.a. 6.4 % 0.0 % 142,857
64.5 % 1.4 x n.a. 9.9 % 0.0 % 170,330
54.5 % 2.8 x n.a. 9.9 % 0.0 % 206,593
Sales, EBITDA
Operating Performance
in EUR m
in %
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
Performance per Share
Source: Warburg Research
5
InVision Consolidated balance sheet In EUR m
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
1.0 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 2.8 2.5 1.6 6.9 8.2
0.9 0.9 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 1.6 4.6 1.1 7.3 8.9
0.7 0.7 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 2.0 4.4 1.3 7.7 15.2
0.6 0.6 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.0 2.8 1.4 0.7 4.8 14.2
0.7 0.7 0.0 10.6 0.0 0.0 11.3 0.0 2.8 2.1 0.7 5.5 16.8
0.8 0.8 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 13.3 0.0 3.4 3.0 0.7 7.1 20.4
0.9 0.9 0.0 14.4 0.0 0.0 15.3 0.0 4.1 6.7 0.7 11.4 26.8
2.2 21.2 0.0 -19.0 4.4 0.0 4.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 3.9 8.2
2.2 9.2 1.3 -7.5 5.2 0.0 5.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.6 8.9
2.2 8.0 1.3 -3.1 8.5 0.0 8.5 0.9 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.8 15.2
2.2 1.2 0.0 4.9 8.4 0.0 8.4 0.6 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.9 14.2
2.2 1.2 3.7 4.8 11.9 0.0 11.9 0.6 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.9 16.8
2.2 1.2 8.2 4.9 16.6 0.0 16.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.1 1.9 3.9 20.4
2.2 1.2 15.5 4.9 23.8 0.0 23.8 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.0 26.8
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
4.5 x 6.9 x 46.5 %
7.1 x 20.1 x 97.5 %
1.5 x 1.7 x 55.7 %
1.1 x 1.2 x 22.6 %
1.0 x 1.1 x 32.3 %
1.0 x 1.0 x 34.1 %
1.0 x 1.1 x 47.5 %
51.2 % 15.2 % 16.4 %
n.a. 32.2 % 35.8 %
97.9 % 61.3 % 62.5 %
23.4 % 25.3 % 25.6 %
33.1 % 36.0 % 36.0 %
33.7 % 31.9 % 31.9 %
45.2 % 36.0 % 36.0 %
-2.5 -2.5 -56.6 % n.a. 2.0 1.5
-4.6 -4.6 -87.2 % n.a. 2.4 2.0
-0.4 -0.4 -4.6 % n.a. 3.8 3.5
1.8 1.8 22.0 % 57.6 % 3.8 3.5
0.2 0.2 1.3 % 3.5 % 5.3 5.0
-1.8 -1.8 -10.6 % n.a. 7.4 7.0
-6.4 -6.4 -26.9 % n.a. 10.7 10.2
Assets Goodwill and other intangible assets thereof other intangible assets thereof Goodwill Property, plant and equipment Financial assets Other long-term assets Fixed assets Inventories Accounts receivable Liquid assets Other short-term assets Current assets Total Assets Liabilities and shareholders' equity Subscribed capital Capital reserve Retained earnings Other equity components Shareholders' equity Minority interest Total equity Provisions thereof provisions for pensions and similar obligations Financial liabilities (total) thereof short-term financial liabilities Accounts payable Other liabilities Liabilities Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
Financial Ratios Efficiency of Capital Employment Operating Assets Turnover Capital Employed Turnover ROA Return on Capital ROCE (NOPAT) ROE Adj. ROE Balance sheet quality Net Debt Net Financial Debt Net Gearing Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA Book Value / Share Book value per share ex intangibles
ROCE Development
Source: Warburg Research
Net debt
Book Value per Share
in EUR m
in EUR
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
6
InVision Consolidated cash flow statement In EUR m
Net income Depreciation of fixed assets Amortisation of goodwill Amortisation of intangible assets Increase/decrease in long-term provisions Other non-cash income and expenses Cash Flow Increase / decrease in inventory Increase / decrease in accounts receivable Increase / decrease in accounts payable Increase / decrease in other working capital positions Increase / decrease in working capital (total) Net cash provided by operating activities Investments in intangible assets Investments in property, plant and equipment Payments for acquisitions Financial investments Income from asset disposals Net cash provided by investing activities Change in financial liabilities Dividends paid Purchase of own shares Capital measures Other Net cash provided by financing activities Change in liquid funds Effects of exchange-rate changes on cash Cash and cash equivalent at end of period
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.0 1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.0 2.5
1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.5 1.7 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 3.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.9 2.1 0.0 4.6
4.2 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 3.7 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.6 3.1 0.0 6.3 0.0 -1.0 0.2 -7.2 4.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.9 0.0 2.9 -1.2 0.0 3.4
2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.7 3.1 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0 -0.7 2.3 0.0 2.4 0.0 1.0 0.0 -1.4 -0.8 0.0 0.0 -2.2 0.0 -3.0 -2.0 0.0 1.4
3.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 4.2 0.1 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.7 0.0 2.1
4.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.6 4.4 0.1 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.9 0.0 3.0
7.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 -0.7 0.1 0.0 -0.6 7.2 0.1 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 3.7 0.0 6.7
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
0.7 6.7 % 0.8 142.9 % 0.6 % 0.0 %
3.0 21.8 % 2.0 190.8 % 0.3 % n.a.
-3.3 -24.3 % -1.7 -77.6 % -0.7 % 0.0 %
0.0 -0.3 % 0.3 -1.7 % -1.4 % 0.0 %
1.7 13.0 % 1.8 46.2 % -2.3 % 0.0 %
1.9 12.3 % 2.5 42.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
4.7 24.8 % 5.3 64.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
3.0 % 4.2 % 114.3 % 23.9 % 1889.4 % 28.0 x 78 161 -145
0.5 % 0.5 % 20.2 % 14.4 % 420.1 % 28.5 x 42 420 -405
47.3 % 47.3 % 1674.5 % 11.6 % 1486.2 % 246879.0 x 55 202 -202
18.6 % 18.6 % 450.1 % 17.8 % 2370.9 % 373738.0 x 79 114 -114
19.2 % 19.2 % 425.6 % 20.5 % 2800.0 % n.a. 79 140 n.a.
16.1 % 16.1 % 535.5 % 19.4 % 3400.0 % n.a. 80 157 n.a.
13.2 % 13.2 % 529.8 % 19.1 % 2050.0 % n.a. 80 388 n.a.
Financial Ratios Cash Flow FCF Free Cash Flow / Sales Free Cash Flow Potential Free Cash Flow / Net Profit Interest Received / Avg. Cash Interest Paid / Avg. Debt Management of Funds Investment ratio Maint. Capex / Sales Capex / Dep Avg. Working Capital / Sales Trade Debtors / Trade Creditors Inventory Turnover Receivables collection period (days) Payables payment period (days) Cash conversion cycle (Days)
CAPEX and Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow Generation
Working Capital
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
7
InVision LEGAL DISCLAIMER This research report (“investment recommendation” or “recommendation”) was prepared by the Warburg Research GmbH, a fully owned subsidiary of the M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and is passed on by the M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA. It contains selected information and does not purport to be complete. The report is based on publicly available information and data ("the information") believed to be accurate and complete. Warburg Research GmbH neither examines the information for accuracy and completeness, nor guarantees its accuracy and completeness. Possible errors or incompleteness of the information do not constitute grounds for liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA or Warburg Research GmbH for damages of any kind whatsoever, and M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are not liable for indirect and/or direct and/or consequential damages. In particular, neither M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA nor Warburg Research GmbH are liable for the statements, plans or other details contained in these analyses concerning the examined companies, their affiliated companies, strategies, economic situations, market and competitive situations, regulatory environment, etc. Although due care has been taken in compiling this research report, it cannot be excluded that it is incomplete or contains errors. M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH, their shareholders and employees are not liable for the accuracy and completeness of the statements, estimations and the conclusions derived from the information contained in this document. Provided a research report is being transmitted in connection with an existing contractual relationship, i.e. financial advisory or similar services, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH shall be restricted to gross negligence and wilful misconduct. In case of failure in essential tasks, M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are liable for normal negligence. In any case, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH is limited to typical, expectable damages. This research report does not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer for the purchase or sale of any security. Partners, directors or employees of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA, Warburg Research GmbH or affiliated companies may serve in a position of responsibility, i.e. on the board of directors of companies mentioned in the report. Opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. All rights reserved.
COPYRIGHT NOTICE This work including all its parts is protected by copyright. Any use beyond the limits provided by copyright law without permission is prohibited and punishable. This applies, in particular, to reproductions, translations, microfilming, and storage and processing on electronic media of the entire content or parts thereof.
DISCLOSURE ACCORDING TO §34B OF THE GERMAN SECURITIES TRADING ACT (WHPG), THE ORDINANCE ON THE ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS (FINANV) AND MAR INCL. COMMISSION DELEGATED REGULATION (EU) 2016/958 The valuation underlying the investment recommendation for the company analysed here is based on generally accepted and widely used methods of fundamental analysis, such as e.g. DCF Model, Free Cash Flow Potential, Peer Group Comparison or Sum of the Parts Model. The result of this fundamental valuation is modified to take into consideration the analyst’s assessment as regards the expected development of investor sentiment and its impact on the share price. Independent of the applied valuation methods, there is the risk that the price target will not be met, for instance because of unforeseen changes in demand for the company’s products, changes in management, technology, economic development, interest rate development, operating and/or material costs, competitive pressure, supervisory law, exchange rate, tax rate etc. For investments in foreign markets and instruments there are further risks, generally based on exchange rate changes or changes in political and social conditions. This commentary reflects the opinion of the relevant author at the point in time of its compilation. A change in the fundamental factors underlying the valuation can mean that the valuation is subsequently no longer accurate. Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this commentary follows is not determined in advance. Additional internal and organisational arrangements to prevent or to deal with conflicts of interest have been implemented. Among these are the spatial separation of Warburg Research GmbH from M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and the creation of areas of confidentiality. This prevents the exchange of information, which could form the basis of conflicts of interest for Warburg Research in terms of the analysed issuers or their financial instruments. The analysts of Warburg Research GmbH do not receive a gratuity – directly or indirectly – from the investment banking activities of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA or of any company within the Warburg Group. All prices of financial instruments given in this financial analysis are the closing prices on the last stock-market trading day before the publication date stated, unless another point in time is explicitly stated. M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are subject to the supervision of the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, BaFin. M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA is additionally subject to the supervision of the European Central Bank (ECB).
SOURCES All data and consensus estimates have been obtained from FactSet except where stated otherwise.
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
8
InVision Additional information for clients in the United States
1. This research report (the “Report”) is a product of Warburg Research GmbH, Germany, a fully owned subsidiary of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA, Germany (in the following collectively “Warburg”). Warburg is the employer of the research analyst(s), who have prepared the Report. The research analyst(s) reside outside the United States and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer and therefore are not subject to the supervision of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer. 2. The Report is provided in the United States for distribution solely to "major U.S. institutional investors" under Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. 3. Any recipient of the Report should effect transactions in the securities discussed in the Report only through J.P.P. Euro-Securities, Inc., Delaware. 4. J.P.P. Euro-Securities, Inc. does not accept or receive any compensation of any kind for the dissemination of the research reports from Warburg.
Reference in accordance with section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), the Ordinance on the Analysis of Financial Instruments (FinAnV), MAR and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) regarding possible conflicts of interest with companies analysed: -1-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, or an employee of one of these companies responsible for the compilation of the research, hold a share of more than 5% of the equity capital of the analysed company.
-2-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, within the last twelve months participated in the management of a consortium for an issue in the course of a public offering of such financial instruments, which are, or the issuer of which is, the subject of the financial analysis.
-3-
Companies affiliated with Warburg Research manage financial instruments, which are, or the issuers of which are, subject of the financial analysis, in a market based on the provision of buy or sell contracts.
-4-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, reached an agreement with the issuer to provide investment services and the relevant agreement was in force in the last 12 months or an obligation to pay or to receive compensation existed for this period based on the agreement - provided that this disclosure does not result in the disclosure of confidential business information.
-5-
The company compiling the analysis or an affiliated company had reached an agreement on the compilation of the financial analysis with the analysed company.
-6-
Companies affiliated with Warburg Research regularly trade financial instruments of the analysed company or derivatives of these.
-6a-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, holds a net long position of more than 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the analysed company.
-6b-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, holds a net short position of more than 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the analysed company.
-6c-
The issuer holds shares of more than 5% of the total issued capital of Warburg Research or an affiliated company.
-7-
The company preparing the analysis as well as its affiliated companies and employees have other important interests in relation to the analysed company, such as, for example, the exercising of mandates at analysed companies.
This report has been made accessible to the company analysed. Company
Disclosure
Link to the historical price targets and rating changes (last 12 months)
InVision
3, 5
http://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/DE0005859698.htm
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
9
InVision INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION Investment recommendation: expected direction of the share price development of the financial instrument up to the given price target in the opinion of the analyst who covers this financial instrument. -B-
Buy:
The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to rise over the next 12 months.
-H-
Hold:
The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to remain mostly flat over the next 12 months.
-S-
Sell:
The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to fall over the next 12 months.
“-“
Rating suspended:
The available information currently does not permit an evaluation of the company.
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING Rating
Number of stocks
% of Universe
Buy
117
62
Hold
64
34
Sell
7
4
Rating suspended
1
1
189
100
Total
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING I I taking into account only those companies which were provided with major investment services in the last twelve months. Rating
Number of stocks
% of Universe
Buy
26
72
Hold
9
25
Sell
1
3
Rating suspended
0
0
36
100
Total
PRICE AND RATING HISTORY INVISION AS OF 14.09.2016 Markings in the chart show rating changes by Warburg Research GmbH in the last 12 months. Every marking details the date and closing price on the day of the rating change.
COMMENT
Published 14.09.2016
10
InVision EQUITIES Roland Rapelius
+49 40 3282-2673
Head of Equities
[email protected]
RESEARCH Michael Heider
+49 40 309537-280
Head of Research
[email protected]
Henner Rüschmeier
+49 40 309537-270
Head of Research
[email protected]
Lucas Boventer
+49 40 309537-290
Renewables, Internet, Media
[email protected]
[email protected]
J. Moritz Rieser
+49 40 309537-260
Real Estate
[email protected]
+49 40 309537-155 [email protected]
Jörg Philipp Frey
+49 40 309537-258
Retail, Consumer Goods
[email protected]
Harald Hof
+49 40 309537-125
Medtech
[email protected]
Ulrich Huwald
+49 40 309537-255
Malte Schaumann
+49 40 309537-256 [email protected]
[email protected]
Marc-René Tonn
+49 40 309537-259
Automobiles, Car Suppliers
Björn Voss Alexander Wahl
Eggert Kuls
+49 40 309537-250
Chemicals, Agriculture
+49 40 309537-257 [email protected]
[email protected]
Oliver Schwarz
Steel, Car Suppliers
Thilo Kleibauer
+49 40 309537-170
Technology
[email protected]
Engineering
+49 40 309537-130
Telco, Internet, Media
Cap. Goods, Renewables
+49 40 309537-120
Retail, Consumer Goods
Jochen Reichert
Arash Roshan Zamir
[email protected]
Health Care, Pharma
[email protected]
+49 40 309537-175
Felix Ellmann Software, IT
+49 40 309537-246
Banks, Financial Services
[email protected]
Christian Cohrs Engineering, Logistics
Andreas Pläsier
[email protected]
+49 40 309537-254 [email protected]
+49 40 309537-230
Other
[email protected]
Andreas Wolf
+49 40 309537-140
Software, IT
[email protected]
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY SALES Holger Nass
+49 40 3282-2669
Head of Equity Sales, USA
[email protected]
Klaus Schilling
+49 40 3282-2664
Dep. Head of Equity Sales, GER
[email protected]
Tim Beckmann
+49 40 3282-2665
United Kingdom
[email protected]
Lyubka Bogdanova
+49 69 5050-7411
United Kingdom, Australia
[email protected]
Jens Buchmüller
+49 69 5050-7415
Scandinavia, Austria
[email protected]
Paul Dontenwill
Michael Kriszun
+49 40 3282-2695
United Kingdom
[email protected]
Marc Niemann
+49 40 3282-2660
Germany
[email protected]
Fabian Roggemann
+49 40 3282-2667
USA
[email protected]
Sanjay Oberoi
+49 69 5050-7410
United Kingdom
[email protected]
Juliane Willenbruch
+49 40 3282-2694
Roadshow/Marketing
[email protected]
+49 40 3282-2666
USA
[email protected]
Matthias Fritsch
+49 40 3282-2696
United Kingdom
[email protected]
SALES TRADING Oliver Merckel
+49 40 3282-2634
Head of Sales Trading
[email protected]
Michael Ilgenstein
+49 40 3282-2700
Sales Trading
[email protected]
Bastian Quast
Jörg Treptow
+49 40 3262-2658
Sales Trading
[email protected]
Jan Walter
+49 40 3262-2662
Sales Trading
[email protected]
+49 40 3282-2701
Sales Trading
[email protected]
MACRO RESEARCH Carsten Klude
+49 40 3282-2572
Macro Research
[email protected]
Dr. Christian Jasperneite Investment Strategy
+49 40 3282-2439 [email protected]
Our research can be found under: Warburg Research
research.mmwarburg.com/en/index.html
Bloomberg FactSet
MMWA GO www.factset.com
Thomson
www.thomson.com
Reuters
www.knowledge.reuters.com
Capital IQ
www.capitaliq.com
For access please contact: Andrea Schaper Sales Assistance
+49 40 3282-2632 [email protected]
COMMENT
Kerstin Muthig
+49 40 3282-2703
Sales Assistance
Published 14.09.2016
[email protected]
11
