Kiatnakin Bank
Kiatnakin Bank Under Review (16E TP Bt36.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt37.75
Banking January 19, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
4Q15 net profit ahead of estimates on higher gain on FX transactions Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
4.178
4.960
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐1.4%
+3.0%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KKP.BK/KKP TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
846.75
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
32.00/881.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
44.00/31.29
52 week High / Low (Bt)
41.00/29.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
819.00
NVDR (%)
6.11
Estimated free float (%)
76.48
Beta
0.86
URL
www.kiatnakin.co.th
CGR
Level 4 (Certified)
Anti‐corruption
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
Will revisit the outlook for KKP after obtaining the 2016 guidance We put our Outperform rating for KKP and the 16E TP of Bt36/share under review until we get the 2016 guidance, which KKP will announce in the analyst meeting set for 25 January. The key price catalysts could come from the likelihood of an improving asset quality outlook, a lower provision as well as its cheap valuations. 4Q15 net profit surpassed both our forecast and the street KKP posted 4Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt980mn (+101% YoY, +6% QoQ), beating our forecast (Bt668mn) and the street estimate (Bt725mn). The higher‐than‐expected NP was due largely to 1) higher‐than‐expected NIM; 2) the booking of huge gain of Bt391mn on trading and FX transactions in 4Q15, especially in regard to gain from the equity derivatives trading and hedge fund units; and 3) a lower‐than‐expected tax rate (just 2%) in 4Q15. Given such extra gains, KKP set aside a provision of Bt824mn in 4Q15, which included a general provision of Bt400mn. 4Q15 net profit stood at Bt980mn (+101% YoY, +6% QoQ) The sharp NP increase YoY was due largely to its low base NP effect in 4Q14 given 1) a much lower provision YoY as KKP set a huge provision of Bt1,525mn in 4Q14 (including a massive general provision of Bt900mn) to act as a buffer against economic uncertainties; and 2) a sharp drop in losses on foreclosed cars (Bt520mn in 4Q14 vs. Bt245mn in 4Q15). 2015 net profit stood at Bt3.3bn (+21% YoY) The 2015 net profit of Bt3.3bn (+21% YoY) was due largely to 1) a sharp drop in losses on foreclosed cars (Bt1.2bn in 2015 vs. Bt2.0bn in 2014); and 2) higher NIM thanks to the low interest rate environment. Meanwhile, loans were still down by 3.6% YoY despite the growth in corporate loans by 52% YoY due to the drop in auto hire purchase loans (‐6.4%) and real estate loans (‐9.2%). However, loans improved by 0.6% QoQ, partly boosted by the issuance of Lombard loans (Bt1.26bn) in 4Q15 and growth in auto hire purchase loans by 0.5% QoQ. Asset quality improved QoQ, especially in auto hire purchase loans NPLs and the NPL ratio declined QoQ to 5.8% in 4Q15 from 6.6% in 3Q15, mainly from the lower NPLs in auto hire purchase loans and residential project loans QoQ. Meanwhile, its loan loss reserve (LLR) to NPL ratio improved both YoY and QoQ to 92% from ~80%. Its LLR to the BoT’s required LLR in 4Q15 was at 160% vs. 155% in 3Q15 and 157% in 2014. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec 2013 PPOP (Btm) 5,058 Net profit (Btm) 4,418 EPS (Bt) 5.27 EPS growth (%) 29.3% Book value (Bt) 41.66 Dividend (Bt) 2.65 FY Ended 31 Dec PER (X) PBV (X) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
2013 7.17 0.84 7.02 13.0%
2014 5,695 2,734 3.24 ‐38.4% 43.52 1.85
2015 5,514 3,317 3.92 20.8% 44.79 1.90
2016E 4,650 3,470 4.12 5.1% 46.71 2.06
2017E 4,616 4,311 5.11 24.2% 49.76 2.56
2014 11.64 0.84 4.90 7.6%
2015 9.64 0.84 5.02 8.9%
2016E 9.17 0.81 5.45 9.0%
2017E 7.38 0.76 6.77 10.6%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 4Q15 and 2015 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended December Net Interest Income
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
% YoY % QoQ
2014
2015 % YoY
2,374
2,476
2,569
8%
4%
Non Interest Income
1,448
1,362
1,403
-3%
3%
3,968
4,804
21%
Operating Income
3,822
3,838
3,972
4%
3%
12,882
14,252
11%
Operating Expenses
1,802
1,692
2,071
15%
22%
6,519
7,017
8%
Operating Profit
1,464
1,692
1,505
3%
-11%
6,125
6,224
2%
Provision for loan loss (Reversal)
1,525
941
824
-46%
-12%
3,199
3,208
0%
5
264
26
451%
-90%
385
602
56%
488
923
980
101%
6%
2,734
3,317
21%
1,457
1,411
1,409
-3%
0%
5,695
5,514
-3%
0.58
1.09
1.16
100%
6%
3.24
3.92
21%
Taxes expenses (Reversal) Net Profit PPOP-after tax EPS (Bt) Key Statistics & Ratios Gross NPLs (Btmn)
9,449
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
2014
2015
10,352
11,587
10,408
10,352
10,408
Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
8,913
5.6%
6.6%
5.8%
5.6%
5.8%
80.4%
79.7%
91.7%
80.4%
91.7%
Loan Loss Reserve/Loans
4.3%
5.1%
5.1%
4.3%
5.1%
Tier I/Risk Asset
14.8%
14.9%
14.6%
14.8%
14.6%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
15.2%
14.5%
16.5%
15.2%
16.5%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
144.8% 164.1% 180.0%
144.8%
180.0%
Loan to Deposit & ST borrowing
144.6% 164.1% 179.5%
144.6%
179.5%
Provision to loans
3.31%
1.07%
1.86%
1.74%
1.81%
C ost to Income
47.1%
44.1%
52.1%
50.6%
49.2%
Non-interest Income/Total Income
37.9%
35.5%
35.3%
30.8%
33.7%
Net Interest Margin
3.69%
4.63%
4.21%
3.91%
4.33%
Interest Spread
4.02%
4.72%
4.85%
3.81%
4.24%
1.0%
22.0%
2.4%
12.2%
14.9%
Loan growth YoY
-3.2%
-5.9%
-3.6%
-3.2%
-3.6%
Loan growth QoQ Source: Bloomberg and KTZMICO Research
-1.7%
0.6%
0.6%
-1.7%
Tax rate
6%
Figure 2: KKP's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 1.8
2016E
1.6
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
0.2
Jan-10
0.4
Jan-09
0.6
Jan-08
0.8
Avg.
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2S.D.
Jan-07
1.0
Jan-06
1.2
+2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
Jan-05
1.4
PBV (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
1.3
62
59
+1.5SD
1.2
57
46
+1.0SD
1.1
52
33
+0.5SD
1.0
47
20
Average
0.9
42
7
-0.5SD
0.8
36
-6
-1.0SD
0.7
31
-19
-1.5SD
0.6
26
-32
-2.0SD
0.5
21
-45
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: KKP's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels 2016E
(X) 18
PER (x)
16 14 12
6 4
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2 S.D.
+2.0SD
13.5
55
43
+1 S.D.
+1.5SD
12.1
50
29
Avg.
+1.0SD
10.8
44
15
+0.5SD
9.4
39
0
Average
8.1
33
-14
-0.5SD
6.8
28
-28
-1.0SD
5.4
22
-42
-1.5SD
4.1
17
-57
-2.0SD
2.8
11
-71
10 8
Implied market
-1 S.D. -2 S.D.
2
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO.
An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, TFG. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Earnings Review
Close Bt37.75
Banking January 19, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
4Q15 net profit ahead of estimates on higher gain on FX transactions Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
4.178
4.960
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐1.4%
+3.0%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KKP.BK/KKP TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
846.75
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
32.00/881.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
44.00/31.29
52 week High / Low (Bt)
41.00/29.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
819.00
NVDR (%)
6.11
Estimated free float (%)
76.48
Beta
0.86
URL
www.kiatnakin.co.th
CGR
Level 4 (Certified)
Anti‐corruption
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
Will revisit the outlook for KKP after obtaining the 2016 guidance We put our Outperform rating for KKP and the 16E TP of Bt36/share under review until we get the 2016 guidance, which KKP will announce in the analyst meeting set for 25 January. The key price catalysts could come from the likelihood of an improving asset quality outlook, a lower provision as well as its cheap valuations. 4Q15 net profit surpassed both our forecast and the street KKP posted 4Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt980mn (+101% YoY, +6% QoQ), beating our forecast (Bt668mn) and the street estimate (Bt725mn). The higher‐than‐expected NP was due largely to 1) higher‐than‐expected NIM; 2) the booking of huge gain of Bt391mn on trading and FX transactions in 4Q15, especially in regard to gain from the equity derivatives trading and hedge fund units; and 3) a lower‐than‐expected tax rate (just 2%) in 4Q15. Given such extra gains, KKP set aside a provision of Bt824mn in 4Q15, which included a general provision of Bt400mn. 4Q15 net profit stood at Bt980mn (+101% YoY, +6% QoQ) The sharp NP increase YoY was due largely to its low base NP effect in 4Q14 given 1) a much lower provision YoY as KKP set a huge provision of Bt1,525mn in 4Q14 (including a massive general provision of Bt900mn) to act as a buffer against economic uncertainties; and 2) a sharp drop in losses on foreclosed cars (Bt520mn in 4Q14 vs. Bt245mn in 4Q15). 2015 net profit stood at Bt3.3bn (+21% YoY) The 2015 net profit of Bt3.3bn (+21% YoY) was due largely to 1) a sharp drop in losses on foreclosed cars (Bt1.2bn in 2015 vs. Bt2.0bn in 2014); and 2) higher NIM thanks to the low interest rate environment. Meanwhile, loans were still down by 3.6% YoY despite the growth in corporate loans by 52% YoY due to the drop in auto hire purchase loans (‐6.4%) and real estate loans (‐9.2%). However, loans improved by 0.6% QoQ, partly boosted by the issuance of Lombard loans (Bt1.26bn) in 4Q15 and growth in auto hire purchase loans by 0.5% QoQ. Asset quality improved QoQ, especially in auto hire purchase loans NPLs and the NPL ratio declined QoQ to 5.8% in 4Q15 from 6.6% in 3Q15, mainly from the lower NPLs in auto hire purchase loans and residential project loans QoQ. Meanwhile, its loan loss reserve (LLR) to NPL ratio improved both YoY and QoQ to 92% from ~80%. Its LLR to the BoT’s required LLR in 4Q15 was at 160% vs. 155% in 3Q15 and 157% in 2014. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec 2013 PPOP (Btm) 5,058 Net profit (Btm) 4,418 EPS (Bt) 5.27 EPS growth (%) 29.3% Book value (Bt) 41.66 Dividend (Bt) 2.65 FY Ended 31 Dec PER (X) PBV (X) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
2013 7.17 0.84 7.02 13.0%
2014 5,695 2,734 3.24 ‐38.4% 43.52 1.85
2015 5,514 3,317 3.92 20.8% 44.79 1.90
2016E 4,650 3,470 4.12 5.1% 46.71 2.06
2017E 4,616 4,311 5.11 24.2% 49.76 2.56
2014 11.64 0.84 4.90 7.6%
2015 9.64 0.84 5.02 8.9%
2016E 9.17 0.81 5.45 9.0%
2017E 7.38 0.76 6.77 10.6%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 4Q15 and 2015 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended December Net Interest Income
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
% YoY % QoQ
2014
2015 % YoY
2,374
2,476
2,569
8%
4%
Non Interest Income
1,448
1,362
1,403
-3%
3%
3,968
4,804
21%
Operating Income
3,822
3,838
3,972
4%
3%
12,882
14,252
11%
Operating Expenses
1,802
1,692
2,071
15%
22%
6,519
7,017
8%
Operating Profit
1,464
1,692
1,505
3%
-11%
6,125
6,224
2%
Provision for loan loss (Reversal)
1,525
941
824
-46%
-12%
3,199
3,208
0%
5
264
26
451%
-90%
385
602
56%
488
923
980
101%
6%
2,734
3,317
21%
1,457
1,411
1,409
-3%
0%
5,695
5,514
-3%
0.58
1.09
1.16
100%
6%
3.24
3.92
21%
Taxes expenses (Reversal) Net Profit PPOP-after tax EPS (Bt) Key Statistics & Ratios Gross NPLs (Btmn)
9,449
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
2014
2015
10,352
11,587
10,408
10,352
10,408
Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
8,913
5.6%
6.6%
5.8%
5.6%
5.8%
80.4%
79.7%
91.7%
80.4%
91.7%
Loan Loss Reserve/Loans
4.3%
5.1%
5.1%
4.3%
5.1%
Tier I/Risk Asset
14.8%
14.9%
14.6%
14.8%
14.6%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
15.2%
14.5%
16.5%
15.2%
16.5%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
144.8% 164.1% 180.0%
144.8%
180.0%
Loan to Deposit & ST borrowing
144.6% 164.1% 179.5%
144.6%
179.5%
Provision to loans
3.31%
1.07%
1.86%
1.74%
1.81%
C ost to Income
47.1%
44.1%
52.1%
50.6%
49.2%
Non-interest Income/Total Income
37.9%
35.5%
35.3%
30.8%
33.7%
Net Interest Margin
3.69%
4.63%
4.21%
3.91%
4.33%
Interest Spread
4.02%
4.72%
4.85%
3.81%
4.24%
1.0%
22.0%
2.4%
12.2%
14.9%
Loan growth YoY
-3.2%
-5.9%
-3.6%
-3.2%
-3.6%
Loan growth QoQ Source: Bloomberg and KTZMICO Research
-1.7%
0.6%
0.6%
-1.7%
Tax rate
6%
Figure 2: KKP's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 1.8
2016E
1.6
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
0.2
Jan-10
0.4
Jan-09
0.6
Jan-08
0.8
Avg.
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2S.D.
Jan-07
1.0
Jan-06
1.2
+2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
Jan-05
1.4
PBV (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
1.3
62
59
+1.5SD
1.2
57
46
+1.0SD
1.1
52
33
+0.5SD
1.0
47
20
Average
0.9
42
7
-0.5SD
0.8
36
-6
-1.0SD
0.7
31
-19
-1.5SD
0.6
26
-32
-2.0SD
0.5
21
-45
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: KKP's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels 2016E
(X) 18
PER (x)
16 14 12
6 4
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2 S.D.
+2.0SD
13.5
55
43
+1 S.D.
+1.5SD
12.1
50
29
Avg.
+1.0SD
10.8
44
15
+0.5SD
9.4
39
0
Average
8.1
33
-14
-0.5SD
6.8
28
-28
-1.0SD
5.4
22
-42
-1.5SD
4.1
17
-57
-2.0SD
2.8
11
-71
10 8
Implied market
-1 S.D. -2 S.D.
2
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO.
An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, TFG. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
