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In terms of energy infrastructure, China has built in a decade what the US built over a century.

kinesis climate monitor

Issue 5, April 2009

& China’s response to climate change is regularly invoked in debates about how Australia should address the issue. One of the reasons the Howard Government refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol was because it did not set binding targets on developing countries like China and India. However, China’s response is often misunderstood, with many myths about China persisting. In this edition of the Kinesis climate monitor we examine some of the statements regarding China and climate change.

“China does not care about climate change” China’s White Paper on climate change, which was released in 2009, outlines how China is already being affected by climate change. Between 1908 and 2007 average temperatures across China rose by 1.1°C. The distribution of precipitation has changed with increases in western and southern China and decreases in most parts of northern and north–eastern China. Extreme climate events, such as hot extremes, heavy precipitation and severe droughts, have increased in frequency and intensity. The White Paper also recognises that China’s current climate, its ecological environment and its geography, including its long coastline, make it particularly vulnerable to climate change.

“China is the largest contributor to climate change” According to some estimates China now emits more greenhouse gasses annually than any other country. FIND OUT MORE However, this does not make China the largest contributor to climate change. Carbon dioxide can remain in the atmosphere for a considerable number of years. The vast majority of human generated carbon dioxide that is currently in the atmosphere was released by Western industrial nations over the last 200 years since the Industrial Revolution. In fact, it will be many decades before China surpasses the United States as the largest contributor to cumulative emissions. Further, according to the World Resources Institute while China, the world’s most populous country, produces the highest gross emissions; China’s per capita emissions (3.9 tonnes/ person per annum) are well under Australia’s (25.6 tonnes/person).

“China isn’t doing anything to reduce emissions” At this stage, China’s official negotiating position on climate change is that it will not accept binding emissions caps. However, one of China’s senior negotiators on climate change has revealed that China may introduce a national target that will limit emissions relative to economic growth. This move could be implemented in China’s next five year plan which begins in 2011. FIND OUT MORE

China has also undertaken a number of separate initiatives to reduce its emissions. China has received more investment (32%) in low emissions and clean energy projects through the Clean Development Mechanism than any other developing country. The New York Times has reported that China aims to become the world’s largest manufacturer of electric vehicles. FIND OUT MORE (China is offering subsidies of up to $8800 to consumers for the purchase of electric cars). It has also dedicated $221 billion of its proposed stimulus spending plan to green initiatives in 2009 and 2010; more than Australia or the United States as both a percentage of total spending and gross amount).

“Australia exports most of its coal to China” Forty–four percent of Australia’s coal is exported to Japan. China is not in the top five destinations for Australian coal. FIND OUT MORE

“China builds a new coal fired power plant every week” A crucial part of China’s remarkable economic transformation has been the rapid growth of its power sector. 99% of people in China have access to electric power, compared to the average of 73% for middle– income developing countries. Creating this new energy infrastructure has required a massive expansion in power generation, most of which has been met by coal and hydro electric installations. According to a recent MIT study China added 102 GW of new energy generation capacity in 2006 The study estimates that this is the equivalent to China building three to four 500 MW coal fired power plants every week for the last three years. In terms of energy infrastructure, China has built in a decade what the US built over a century. However, the notion that China is building a new power plant every week over–simplifies the complex nature of China’s growing energy demand. In some cases, the new power plants being built are replacing older, more inefficient plants. In February 2009 it was reported that China would close 31 GW worth of coal fired power between 2010 and 2011. Similar plans resulted in 34 GW worth of coal fired power being decommissioned between 2006 and 2008. FIND OUT MORE China is also investing in alternate sources of energy. It has a target of meeting 20% of its electricity through renewable sources by 2020 compared to the current total of around 10%. In 2008 China doubled its wind energy capacity and the country is now the fourth largest producer of wind energy. WANT TO KNOW MORE?

The Lowy Institute released a detailed paper in 2008 which outlines some of the difficulties China faces in reducing emissions in its power sector. To read China’s White Paper on Climate Change see http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File419.pdf To read the MIT study see http://web.mit.edu/ipc/publications/pdf/08-003.pdf

RENEWABLES

SAMSØ IS NO LONGER ROTTING IN THE STATE OF DENMARK Samsø is a small island off the coast of Denmark. Ten years ago Samso imported all its energy; petrol and oil came in tankers and electricity was supplied from coal fired plants via an undersea cable. Through a combination of wind power and biomass fuelled district heating, Samsø has cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 140%. The cable that supplied electricity to the island now exports excess renewable energy back to the Danish mainland. Although only on a small scale, Samso Island demonstrates that an emissions–free economy is possible using currently available technology. However, Samsø’s transformation has not only been technological but social and economic. The Island’s wind turbines are privately owned and the guaranteed prices that the Danish Government pays for the electricity they supply ensure a short payback period for the investment. Samso reveals how change can be driven at the local and community level.

WANT TO KNOW MORE?

See the Samsø Island website and articles in The Guardian newspaper and The New Yorker magazine.

i–MiEV PHOTO: SAMSØ ENERGY ACADEMY

kinesis climate monitor

Samsø Island has cut it’s greenhouse gas emmissions by 140%. ACTION

Reducing emissions in the transport sector Around the world, car companies have been

announcing plans to release new hybrid, plug–in hybrid and battery electric vehicles within the next few years. These companies include established corporations such as Nissan, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Ford and General Motors as well as smaller start up companies such as Tesla Motors. Mitsubishi’s new fully electric vehicle, the i–MiEV, has been given approval for registration on Australian roads. The i–MiEV has a range of 160 km and can travel at speeds of up to 130 km/h. It goes into volume production in June. Companies are also announcing plans to install electric charging stations and battery swap stations that will create the necessary infrastructure to power these new electric vehicles. Owners will be able to install home charging stations and even charge their vehicles from a standard wall outlet. The i–MiEV will take approximately 7 hours to fully charge from a normal household 240V power supply. Reducing emissions from trucks and automobiles will be a necessary and significant step in transforming to a low emissions economy. In 2006, road transport accounted for 12% of Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Between 1990 and 2006, Australia’s road transport emissions increased by 26.7%. Globally, passenger vehicles accounted for approximately 7% of global emissions in 2006. Unabated, these emissions are expected to rise by 54% by 2030. Over this period, the number of vehicles on the road is expected to grow from 730 million to over 1.3 billion.

Electric vehicles will play a crucial role in reducing these emissions. Even when Australia’s high proportion of coal generated electricity is taken into account, lightweight, efficient electric vehicles charged over the grid still produce fewer greenhouse emissions relative to a gasoline powered vehicles and as the greenhouse intensity of the grid is reduced, so too will emissions from electric vehicles. With all major utilities offering Greenpower options, electric vehicles also allow their owner to choose the greenhouse intensity of their fuel. However, electric vehicles are not the only way to reduce road transport emissions. McKinsey and Company have released a report titled Roads Towards a Low Carbon Future that assesses strategies for reducing road transport emissions. They found that under an aggressive scenario global road transport emissions could be reduced by up to 22% relative to 2006 emissions. However, they also found that improvements in driver behaviour and the efficiency of gasoline vehicle could reduce emissions by 11% without the widespread adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles. WANT TO KNOW MORE?

To learn more about Mitsubishi’s i–MiEV go to www.mitsubishimotors.com To read the McKinsey and Company report see www.mckinsey.com

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