Land and Houses Buy (17E TP Bt12.1)
Earnings Review
Close Bt9.8
Property Development March 1, 2017
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
2016 net profit and core profit increased 8.8% YoY and 7.7% YoY Results date: February 28, 2017 Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.734
0.740
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐3.3%
‐5.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
LH.BK/LH TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
11,893.54
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
117.00/3,341.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
30.00/29.99
52 week High / Low (Bt)
10.40/7.60
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
22,943.00
NVDR (%)
18.84
Estimated free float (%)
42.24
Beta
0.99
URL
www.lh.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Worarat Powpaka
n.a.
Maintain Buy with the 17E TP of Bt12.1 We maintain a Buy rating for LH with the 17E TP of Bt12.1 (17.0x). The good points of LH are i) stable revenue growth YoY as the majority of revenue comes from mid‐to‐high low‐rise projects for which demand is growing by 5‐10% per year and ii) LH’s rental property portfolio, which should support its profit through divestment when the residential business fluctuates. 4Q16 net profit increased YoY but increased QoQ 4Q16 net profit was Bt2bn, decreasing 41.0% YoY as LH booked extra gain from selling assets to REIT amounting to Bt2bn in 4Q15 but increasing 4.3% QoQ from higher transfers. 4Q16 core profit was Bt2.01bn (‐18.6% YoY, +5.0% QoQ), 7% above our estimate, mainly from the lower‐than‐expected non‐controlling interest of subsidiaries. Transfers were Bt6.88bn (‐17.0% YoY, +9.7% QoQ). The average GPM was lower from previous quarters at 33.8%. The SG&A expense‐to‐revenue ratio was 13.9%, maintained from 3Q16. The profit contribution from associates was Bt785mn (‐6.0% YoY, +8.2% QoQ). Interest expenses increased 24.8% YoY and 52.9% QoQ to Bt119mn as more condo projects realized interest expenses after completion. Non‐controlling interest of subsidiaries was Bt7mn below our estimate at Bt131mn. 2016 net profit and core profit increased 8.8% YoY and 7.7% YoY LH's 2016 net profit was Bt8.62bn (+8.8% YoY) and core profit was Bt7.3bn (+7.7% YoY), slightly above our estimates. Transfers were Bt27.4bn (+13.0% YoY). The average GPM was maintained at 34.4%. The SG&A expense‐to‐revenue ratio was 13.3%, lower than 2015 at 13.6%. The profit contribution from associates amounted to Bt2.96bn (+121.6% YoY). Meanwhile, LH booked extra gain of Bt1.3bn, mainly from selling land. Maintain 2017‐18E core profit We maintain our 2017‐18E core profit at Bt8.56bn (+17.6% YoY) and Bt8.44bn (‐1.7% YoY). Announced 2H16 DPS of Bt0.30, implying dividend yield of 3.1% LH announced a 2H16 DPS at Bt0.3, implying a dividend yield of 3.1%. The stock will go XD on May 2 and the dividend will be paid on May 24, 2017. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 28,317 8,423 0.77 18.7 0.63 (2.2) 0.65 4.03 2014 12.8 15.5 19.9 2.4 6.6 21.3 66.4
2015 26,260 7,920 0.68 (11.9) 0.58 (8.7) 0.60 4.00 2015 14.5 17.0 24.3 2.5 6.1 17.4 69.2
2016 29,909 8,618 0.73 8.3 0.62 7.2 0.65 4.07 2016 13.4 15.8 22.5 2.4 6.6 18.2 86.9
Analyst, no. 17992
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2017E 35,507 8,586 0.71 (2.4) 0.71 15.2 0.61 4.11 2017E 13.7 13.7 21.3 2.4 6.2 17.6 87.4
2018E 33,436 8,444 0.70 (1.7) 0.70 (1.7) 0.60 4.22 2018E 14.0 14.0 22.3 2.3 6.1 16.8 85.6
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn)
FY Ended 31 Dec
4Q15
3Q16
4Q16
% YoY
% QoQ
2015
2016
% YoY
Revenue from project sales Total revenue Gross profit
8,282 8,830 3,038
6,268 6,933 2,483
6,877 7,542 2,546
(17.0) (14.6) (16.2)
9.7 8.8 2.5
24,223 26,260 8,947
27,372 29,909 10,274
13.0 13.9 14.8
EBITDA
2,437
1,716
1,770
(27.4)
3.2
6,072
6,994
15.2
(95)
(78)
(119)
24.8
52.9
(305)
(373)
22.5
Interest expense Other income
349
108
133
(61.9)
23.0
398
447
12.3
Income tax
(831)
(343)
(303)
(63.6)
(11.8)
(1,601)
(1,572)
(1.9)
Other extraordinary Items
1,818
0
(11)
N.M.
N.M.
2,287
1,318
(42)
835
726
785
(6.0)
8.2
2,437
2,964
21.6
Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss)
3,389
1,916
1,998
(41.0)
4.3
7,920
8,618
8.8
Core net profit (loss)
2,471
1,916
2,012
(18.6)
5.0
6,775
7,300
7.7
Reported EPS (THB)
0.29
0.17
0.17
(41.3)
0.2
0.68
0.73
8.3
Core EPS (THB)
0.21
0.16
0.17
(19.0)
4.9
0.58
0.62
7.2
Gross margin – project sales (%)
34.7
36.1
33.9
33.9
34.9
Gross margin ‐ overall (%)
34.4
35.8
33.8
34.1
34.4
EBITDA margin (%)
27.6
24.7
23.5
23.1
23.4
Net margin (%)
38.4
27.6
26.5
30.2
28.8
Current ratio (x)
3.5
3.3
2.7
3.5
2.7
Interest coverage (x)
24.6
20.9
13.9
18.9
18.1
Debt / equity (x)
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
BVPS (Bt)
4.00
3.87
4.07
4.00
4.07
ROE (%)
17.3
21.4
18.4
17.4
18.4
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD. Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89)
Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068