Market Information
Market Information 1. Dry Bulk Carriers ①Dry Bulker Markets ②Drybulkers Port Congestion ③Chinese Port Stock Pile of Imported Iron Ore
1 2 2
2. Tankers ①VLCC Market ②Product Tanker Market
3 3
①Export Volumes of Automobile from Japan
4
3. Car Carriers
4. Container Cargo Trades ①China Containerized Freight Index ②World Total Containership Capacity ③Cargo Movements: North America Outbound ④Cargo Movements: North America Inbound ⑤Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Outbound ⑥Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Inbound ⑦North America Outbound Supply-Demand Transition ⑧North America Inbound Supply-Demand Transition ⑨Europe Outbound Supply-Demand Transition ⑩Europe Inbound Supply-Demand Transition
4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8
5. Exchange Rate / Bunker Price ①Exchange Rate ②Bunker Price
9 9
January 2011
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd.
1. Dry Bulk Carriers
220,000
① Dry Bulker Markets [4TC Charterage (monthly averages)] 4TC：Pacific Round、Pacific Atlantic、Atlantic Round、Atlantic Pacific (Charterage US $/day)
(BDI) 12,000
201,136 10,844
200,000
10,000
180,000 Capesize (165,000DWT)
160,000
Panamax (72,000DWT)
8,000
140,000
Handymax (55,000DWT)
120,000
S mall Handy (28,000DWT) 6,000
BDI (Baltic Dry Index)
100,000 80,000
4,000
60,000
2,321
40,000
2,000
20,000
25,162
0 Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
743 3,995 Jan-09
Charterage per day (US$/day) Upper row: Average of Calendar year (Jan.-Dec.) / Lower row: Average of fiscal year (Apr.-M ar.)
2000
Capesize Panamax Handymax Small Handy BDI
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
0 Jan-10 S ource : Tramp Data S ervice
2007
2008
2009
21,530
13,090
12,056
40,615
69,236
50,277
45,320
116,565
105,391
42,464
21,442
10,912
15,580
55,039
66,277
41,423
55,638
126,944
81,867
45,203
11,600
9,444
8,281
20,408
35,815
24,782
23,858
56,854
48,653
19,279
11,952
8,234
9,787
27,747
34,309
19,815
28,725
62,404
36,473
24,178
10,267
8,911
8,210
16,887
30,915
24,053
22,661
47,518
41,233
17,353
10,511
8,050
9,288
23,089
29,834
20,191
26,435
52,231
31,337
20,927
7,136
6,476
6,038
10,404
21,449
17,982
16,739
33,335
29,182
11,542
7,339
6,161
6,442
14,465
21,426
15,166
19,271
36,408
22,350
14,096
1,606
1,215
1,144
2,634
4,521
3,380
3,188
7,090
6,347
2,613
1,620
1,083
1,332
3,517
4,346
2,846
3,745
7,767
4,895
2,978
2010 33,345 25,070 22,484 16,519 2,761
[4TC Charterage (daily)]
100,000
(BDI)
(Charte rage US$/day)
5,000
Capesize Panamax 80,000
4,000
Handymax Small Handy BDI
60,000
3,000
40,000
2,000
20,000
1,000
0 Jan-09
0 Apr-09
Jul-09
O ct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
O ct-10
Charterage per day (US$/day) , Calendar Year, Monthly Average
Capesize Panamax Handymax Small Handy BDI
Mar
Source ： Bloomberg
Jan
Feb
Apr
2009
14,377
31,979
23,268
19,982
2010
38,395
30,862
33,236
2009
4,397
10,662
2010
30,709
2009
May
Jun
Jul
37,485
80,846
60,852
29,192
48,550
38,113
14,611
11,302
18,363
25,390
32,351
31,268
4,463
11,551
16,381
2010
25,289
22,313
2009
4,128
2010
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
44,241
29,919
41,889
70,281
Dec 54,449
42,464
15,858
27,749
35,430
42,516
35,633
25,162
33,391
24,190
25,571
19,555
19,717
22,242
31,335
29,405
19,279
34,766
26,844
18,047
22,956
24,069
18,779
18,282
17,550
25,084
13,474
17,747
18,441
20,239
18,750
20,241
19,329
22,942
24,678
17,353
27,676
26,977
31,526
24,985
18,719
19,944
20,620
19,217
15,931
16,764
22,497
6,928
10,624
9,537
11,510
11,774
11,845
12,087
13,009
13,328
14,352
17,396
11,376
17,294
15,829
19,778
19,835
21,405
18,910
14,697
15,092
15,743
14,430
11,985
12,117
16,426
2009
905
1,816
1,958
1,659
2,540
3,823
3,362
2,685
2,351
2,746
3,941
3,572
2,613
2010
3,168
2,678
3,207
3,043
3,865
3,088
1,910
2,432
2,719
2,693
2,321
2,031
2,763
BDI is calculated as an arithmetic average of the drybulker markets of the 4 different vessel types. Therefore, a fluctuation of BDI does not always coincide with those of the 4 drybulker markets.
1
Average
② Drybulkers Port Congestion (Source: Howe Robinson) (Number of Vessels)
200 Australian Loading Ports for Coal Brazilian Loading Ports for Iron O re
180
Australian Loading Ports for Iron O re Chinese Discharging Ports for Iron O re
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
0
③ Chinese Port Stock Pile of Imported Iron Ore (Source: Bloomberg) (million ton)
85 80 75 70 65 60 55
2
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
50
2. Tankers ① VLCC Market (Source: Drewry, RIM etc.) VLCC spot rate(AG/East)
Crude oil price (Dubai) 140
350 317
120
300
234
250
100
80
150
60
WS
US$/b
200
40
100 66
55 50
29
20
27
0
Average
Jan-2010
Jan-2009
Jan-2008
Jan-2007
Jan-2006
Jan-2005
Jan-2004
Jan-2003
Jan-2002
Jan-2001
Jan-2000
0
（ WS: World Scale) Upper row: Average of calendar year (Jan.-Dec.) / Lower row: Average of fiscal year (Apr.-Mar.)
2000 AG-Asia VLCC Freight
2001
110 119
2002
66 51
2003
50 69
2004
93 94
2005
149 146
2006
101 100
2007
90 82
2008
79 90
2009
120 114
40 49
AG:Arabian Gulf
Jan
2009 2010
Feb
53 97
M ar
42 76
Apr
37 76
M ay
28 88
Jun
Jul
27 72
42 90
Aug
35 57
Sept
36 50
Oct
34 47
Nov
41 47
Dec
46 66
55
② Product Tanker Market (Source: Drewry) WS 700 LR AG-JP 50-60,000 dwt 585
MR Spr.-East 25-30,000 dwt
600 463
500
407 400
414
346
406
403
437
395
371
300 213
283
260
200
165
208 196
158 100
157 120
117
00. 1 3 5 7 9 11 01. 1 3 5 7 9 11 02. 1 3 5 7 9 11 03. 1 3 5 7 9 11 04. 1 3 5 7 9 11 05. 1 3 5 7 9 11 06. 1 3 5 7 9 11 07. 1 3 5 7 9 11 08. 1 3 5 7 9 11 09. 1 3 5 7 9 11 10. 1 3 5 7 9 11
0
Average
（ WS: World Scale) Upper row: Average of calendar year (Jan.-Dec.) / Lower row: Average of fiscal year (Apr.-Mar.)
2000 LR AG-JP 50-60,000 dwt MR Spr.-East 25-30,000 dwt
237 292 285 333
2001 249 183 287 224 Jan
LR AG-JP 50-60,000 dwt M R Spr.-East 25-30,000 dwt
2009 2010 2009 2010
85 151 105 145
2002 152 182 196 223 Feb 118 139 131 155
2003
2004
218 214 265 267 Mar 79 124 98 144
251 259 307 318 Apr
3
52 126 82 143
2005
2006
276 269 366 368 May 63 143 77 215
214 198 312 293 Jun 85 123 240
2007 181 185 274 269 Jul 87 128 110 161
2008
2009
250 226 287 251 Aug 94 161 127 155
93 104 117 128 Sept 104 141 120 -
Oct 131 110 163 183
Nov 100 120 -
Dec 121 158
165
3. Car Carriers ① Export Volumes of Automobile from Japan (Source:Japan Automobile Manufactures Association) 700
(Broken Line: yoy-change)
(Bar/Unit:1000 )
100% 80%
600
60%
500
40%
400
20%
300
0% -20%
200
-40%
100
-60%
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-80%
2008
2009
2010
* New vehicle (incl. KD)
3. Container Cargo Trades ① China Containerized Freight Index (Source:SSE) CCFI W/C America Service
CCFI E/C America Service
CCFI Europe Service
2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900
1998.1.1＝1,000
700
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Jan-08
Apr-08
500
* CCFI reflects the freight rate trend for container exports from China only, which does not always match the overall trend for container exports from Asia. Therefore, this information is provided and updated only for reference purposes.
② World Total Containership Capacity (As of March 2010; Clarkson Research Studies’ statistics etc.) (1000T EU)
14,000
20%
T EU
Growth
18%
12,000 16% 10,000
14% 12%
8,000
10% 6,000
8% 6%
4,000
4% 2,000 2% 0
0% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Calendar Year
4
③ Cargo Movements: North America Outbound (Asia→North America) (Broken Line: yoy-change)
(Bar:1000TEU)
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2008
2009
2008 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010
2009
Cumulative
1,047 1,038 882 1,026 1,100 1,028 1,077 1,168 1,119 1,129 974 862 12,450
1,047 2,085 2,968 3,994 5,094 6,122 7,198 8,366 9,485 10,614 11,588 12,450
M onthly
950 722 835 876 911 898 994 1,036 1,045 1,085 982 935 11,268
Increase/ decrease
2010
Cumulative
-9.3% -30.5% -5.4% -14.6% -17.2% -12.7% -7.7% -11.3% -6.6% -3.9% 0.8% 8.4%
950 1,671 2,506 3,382 4,293 5,191 6,185 7,221 8,267 9,351 10,333 11,268
Increase/ decrease
-9.3% -19.9% -15.6% -15.3% -15.7% -15.2% -14.1% -13.7% -12.8% -11.9% -10.8% -9.5%
M onthly
995 907 918 992 1,101 1,145 1,174 1,255 1,173 1,196
Increase/ decrease
Cumulative
4.8% 25.7% 10.0% 13.3% 20.8% 27.5% 18.1% 21.1% 12.2% 10.3%
995 1,903 2,821 3,813 4,914 6,059 7,232 8,488 9,660 10,857
4.8% 13.8% 12.6% 12.7% 14.5% 16.7% 16.9% 17.5% 16.9% 16.1%
10,857 Source：Piers JoC
④ Cargo Movements: North America Inbound (North America→Asia) 600
Increase/ decrease
(Bar:1000TEU)
(Broken Line:yoy-change)
500 400 300 200 100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2008
2009
2008 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
459 525 522 521 547 497 538 519 457 434 361 341 5,722
2010
2009
Cumulative
459 984 1,506 2,027 2,575 3,072 3,610 4,129 4,586 5,020 5,381 5,722
M onthly
377 411 514 507 534 517 512 527 503 520 516 536 5,973
Increase/ decrease
2010
Cumulative
-18.0% -21.7% -1.5% -2.7% -2.5% 4.1% -4.9% 1.6% 10.0% 19.8% 43.0% 57.0%
377 788 1,302 1,809 2,343 2,860 3,372 3,899 4,402 4,922 5,437 5,973
Increase/ decrease
-18.0% -20.0% -13.6% -10.8% -9.0% -6.9% -6.6% -5.6% -4.0% -2.0% 1.0% 4.4%
M onthly
472 487 528 535 522 498 499 503 482 552
Increase/ decrease
25.3% 18.4% 2.7% 5.5% -2.2% -3.8% -2.5% -4.6% -4.2% 6.2%
Cumulative
472 959 1,487 2,022 2,544 3,042 3,540 4,044 4,525 5,077
Increase/ decrease
25.3% 21.7% 14.2% 11.7% 8.6% 6.3% 5.0% 3.7% 2.8% 3.2%
5,077
5
Source：Piers JoC
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
⑤ Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Outbound (Asia→Europe) 1,400
(Broken Line:yoy-change)
(Bar:1000TEU)
1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
2008
2009
2008 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2009
Cumulative
1,236 924 1,166 1,170 1,170 1,212 1,203 1,217 1,164 1,074 947 1,010 13,494
2010
1,236 2,160 3,326 4,496 5,666 6,879 8,082 9,299 10,463 11,538 12,485 13,494
M onthly
1,018 618 955 878 933 955 993 1,068 1,052 953 971 1,099 11,493
Increase/ decrease
2010
Cumulative
-17.6% -33.1% -18.1% -25.0% -20.3% -21.2% -17.5% -12.2% -9.7% -11.3% 2.5% 8.9%
1,018 1,636 2,591 3,469 4,402 5,357 6,350 7,418 8,470 9,423 10,394 11,493
Increase/ decrease
-17.6% -24.2% -22.1% -22.8% -22.3% -22.1% -21.4% -20.2% -19.1% -18.3% -16.7% -14.8%
M onthly
1,116 943 1,077 1,121 1,158 1,155 1,215 1,241 1,123 1,088
Increase/ decrease
Cumulative
9.6% 52.5% 12.7% 27.7% 24.2% 20.8% 22.4% 16.1% 6.8% 14.1%
1,116 2,059 3,135 4,257 5,415 6,569 7,784 9,025 10,148 11,236
Increase/ decrease
9.6% 25.8% 21.0% 22.7% 23.0% 22.6% 22.6% 21.7% 19.8% 19.2%
11,236 Source：ELAA(October, 2008～)
⑥ Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Inbound (Europe→Asia) 600
(Bar:1000TEU)
(Broken Line:yoy-change)
50% 40%
500
30%
400
20% 10%
300
0%
200
-10%
100
-20% -30%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2008
2009
2008 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
391 453 483 491 462 492 490 428 406 413 357 370 5,235
2010
2009
Cumulative
391 844 1,327 1,817 2,280 2,771 3,261 3,690 4,095 4,509 4,865 5,235
M onthly
310 359 451 439 498 484 493 465 488 476 464 530 5,458
Increase/ decrease
2010
Cumulative
-20.6% -20.8% -6.6% -10.6% 7.8% -1.5% 0.7% 8.6% 20.3% 15.3% 30.1% 43.4%
310 669 1,120 1,559 2,057 2,541 3,035 3,500 3,988 4,464 4,928 5,458
Increase/ decrease
-20.6% -20.7% -15.5% -14.2% -9.8% -8.3% -6.9% -5.1% -2.6% -1.0% 1.3% 4.3%
M onthly
417 452 508 476 483 470 467 447 447 444
Increase/ decrease
34.4% 26.0% 12.7% 8.4% -3.1% -2.9% -5.4% -3.8% -8.5% -6.8%
Cumulative
417 869 1,377 1,853 2,336 2,806 3,273 3,720 4,167 4,611
Increase/ decrease
34.4% 29.9% 23.0% 18.9% 13.6% 10.4% 7.9% 6.3% 4.5% 3.3%
4,611 Source：ELAA(October, 2008～)
6
⑦ North America Outbound Supply-Demand Transition [ Asia → North America ] (1000TEU)
18,000
-10% Demand
Supply
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
16,000 0% 14,000 10.4% 12,000
12.4%
13.7%
12.9%
10%
13.6%
13.9%
19.2%
10,000
6,000 4,000
16,655
16,347
8,000 11,378
10,016 9,817 8,974
12,841 11,248
14,685 14,080 12,792
14,386
16,537 25.9% 13,367 15,620 11,579
20%
30%
40% 2,000 0
50% 2002
2003
2004
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
Gap Ratio
2005
2006
2007
2008
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
8,974 9,817 11,248 12,792 14,080 14,386 13,367 11,579
21.3% 9.4% 14.6% 13.7% 10.1% 2.2% -7.1% -13.4%
10,016 11,378 12,841 14,685 16,347 16,655 16,537 15,620
6.5% 13.6% 12.9% 14.4% 11.3% 1.9% -0.7% -5.5%
cf. Containership Demand Forecast byConsultants & Research Companies Drewry IHS Global Insight 2010e 16.6% 15.7% 2011e 6.1% 8.1% Source：Drewry, IHS Global Insight as of December 2010
2009
(Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2010
⑧ North America Inbound Supply-Demand Transition [ North America → Asia ] 16,000
(1000TEU)
40% Demand
Supply
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
14,000 45% 48.7%
12,000 50.7%
51.3%
50%
52.5%
10,000
54.2% 56.2%
8,000
55% 59.1% 12,239
6,000 10,622 4,000 2,000
8,108 3,951
13,758 60.9%
13,547
13,747
12,761 60%
9,220
4,378
4,654
5,000
5,381
6,296
6,674
6,551
0
65%
70% 2002
2003
2004
2005
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
Gap Ratio
2006
2007
2008
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
2009
(Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2010
7
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3,951 4,378 4,654 5,000 5,381 6,296 6,674 6,551
8.1% 10.8% 6.3% 7.4% 7.6% 17.0% 6.0% -1.8%
8,108 9,220 10,622 12,239 13,758 13,747 13,547 12,761
7.5% 13.7% 15.2% 15.2% 12.4% -0.1% -1.5% -5.8%
⑨ Europe Outbound Supply-Demand Transition [ Asia → Europe ] （1000TEU)
20,000
Demand
18,000
7.3%
Supply
16,000 14,000
10%
19.1%
23.5%
20%
12,000
30%
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000
10,870
9,229 8,554
9,643
12,635 11,276
40%
17,346
14,714 13,373
14,276 11,547
13,269
50% 60%
2,000
70%
0
80% 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth Demand
Supply
1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
0%
9.1%
10.8%
11.3%
-10%
Gap Ratio
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
8,554 9,643 11,276 13,373 13,269 11,547
12.7% 16.9% 18.6% -0.8% -13.0%
9,229 10,870 12,635 14,714 17,346 14,276
17.8% 16.2% 16.5% 17.9% -17.7%
cf. Containership Demand Forecast byConsultants & Research Companies Drewry IHS Global Insight 2010e 16.4% 11.9% 2011e 5.7% 6.5% Source：Drewry, IHS Global Insight
as of December 2010
2009
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
(Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2010
⑩ Europe Inbound Supply-Demand Transition [ Europe → Asia ] （1000TEU)
14,000
20% Demand
Supply
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
12,000
30%
35.3% 10,000
42.0%
40% 47.8%
8,000
49.1% 53.3%
6,000
11,166 9,543
4,000 2,000
7,131 4,613
50%
13,159 62.0%
10,794 60%
8,251 4,782
4,979
5,217
4,996
5,489
0
70%
80% 2004
2005
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
Gap Ratio
2006
2007
2008
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
2009 (Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2010
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
4,613 4,782 4,979 5,217 4,996 5,489
3.7% 4.1% 4.8% -4.2% 9.9%
7,131 8,251 9,543 11,166 13,159 10,794
15.7% 15.7% 17.0% 17.8% -18.0%
5. Exchange Rate / Bunker Price ① Exchange Rate （Yen/US$） ¥120 ¥110 ¥100 ¥90 ¥80 ¥70 ¥60 2008/1
2008/4
2008/7
2008/10
2009/1
2009/4
2009/7
2009/10
2010/1
2010/4
2010/7
2010/10
② Bunker Price $800
*Price at Singapore (Grade:380CST)
($/MT)
$700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 2008/1
2008/4
2008/7
2008/10
2009/1
2009/4
2009/7
9
2009/10
2010/1
2010/4
2010/7
2010/10
1 2 2
2. Tankers ①VLCC Market ②Product Tanker Market
3 3
①Export Volumes of Automobile from Japan
4
3. Car Carriers
4. Container Cargo Trades ①China Containerized Freight Index ②World Total Containership Capacity ③Cargo Movements: North America Outbound ④Cargo Movements: North America Inbound ⑤Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Outbound ⑥Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Inbound ⑦North America Outbound Supply-Demand Transition ⑧North America Inbound Supply-Demand Transition ⑨Europe Outbound Supply-Demand Transition ⑩Europe Inbound Supply-Demand Transition
4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8
5. Exchange Rate / Bunker Price ①Exchange Rate ②Bunker Price
9 9
January 2011
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd.
1. Dry Bulk Carriers
220,000
① Dry Bulker Markets [4TC Charterage (monthly averages)] 4TC：Pacific Round、Pacific Atlantic、Atlantic Round、Atlantic Pacific (Charterage US $/day)
(BDI) 12,000
201,136 10,844
200,000
10,000
180,000 Capesize (165,000DWT)
160,000
Panamax (72,000DWT)
8,000
140,000
Handymax (55,000DWT)
120,000
S mall Handy (28,000DWT) 6,000
BDI (Baltic Dry Index)
100,000 80,000
4,000
60,000
2,321
40,000
2,000
20,000
25,162
0 Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
743 3,995 Jan-09
Charterage per day (US$/day) Upper row: Average of Calendar year (Jan.-Dec.) / Lower row: Average of fiscal year (Apr.-M ar.)
2000
Capesize Panamax Handymax Small Handy BDI
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
0 Jan-10 S ource : Tramp Data S ervice
2007
2008
2009
21,530
13,090
12,056
40,615
69,236
50,277
45,320
116,565
105,391
42,464
21,442
10,912
15,580
55,039
66,277
41,423
55,638
126,944
81,867
45,203
11,600
9,444
8,281
20,408
35,815
24,782
23,858
56,854
48,653
19,279
11,952
8,234
9,787
27,747
34,309
19,815
28,725
62,404
36,473
24,178
10,267
8,911
8,210
16,887
30,915
24,053
22,661
47,518
41,233
17,353
10,511
8,050
9,288
23,089
29,834
20,191
26,435
52,231
31,337
20,927
7,136
6,476
6,038
10,404
21,449
17,982
16,739
33,335
29,182
11,542
7,339
6,161
6,442
14,465
21,426
15,166
19,271
36,408
22,350
14,096
1,606
1,215
1,144
2,634
4,521
3,380
3,188
7,090
6,347
2,613
1,620
1,083
1,332
3,517
4,346
2,846
3,745
7,767
4,895
2,978
2010 33,345 25,070 22,484 16,519 2,761
[4TC Charterage (daily)]
100,000
(BDI)
(Charte rage US$/day)
5,000
Capesize Panamax 80,000
4,000
Handymax Small Handy BDI
60,000
3,000
40,000
2,000
20,000
1,000
0 Jan-09
0 Apr-09
Jul-09
O ct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
O ct-10
Charterage per day (US$/day) , Calendar Year, Monthly Average
Capesize Panamax Handymax Small Handy BDI
Mar
Source ： Bloomberg
Jan
Feb
Apr
2009
14,377
31,979
23,268
19,982
2010
38,395
30,862
33,236
2009
4,397
10,662
2010
30,709
2009
May
Jun
Jul
37,485
80,846
60,852
29,192
48,550
38,113
14,611
11,302
18,363
25,390
32,351
31,268
4,463
11,551
16,381
2010
25,289
22,313
2009
4,128
2010
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
44,241
29,919
41,889
70,281
Dec 54,449
42,464
15,858
27,749
35,430
42,516
35,633
25,162
33,391
24,190
25,571
19,555
19,717
22,242
31,335
29,405
19,279
34,766
26,844
18,047
22,956
24,069
18,779
18,282
17,550
25,084
13,474
17,747
18,441
20,239
18,750
20,241
19,329
22,942
24,678
17,353
27,676
26,977
31,526
24,985
18,719
19,944
20,620
19,217
15,931
16,764
22,497
6,928
10,624
9,537
11,510
11,774
11,845
12,087
13,009
13,328
14,352
17,396
11,376
17,294
15,829
19,778
19,835
21,405
18,910
14,697
15,092
15,743
14,430
11,985
12,117
16,426
2009
905
1,816
1,958
1,659
2,540
3,823
3,362
2,685
2,351
2,746
3,941
3,572
2,613
2010
3,168
2,678
3,207
3,043
3,865
3,088
1,910
2,432
2,719
2,693
2,321
2,031
2,763
BDI is calculated as an arithmetic average of the drybulker markets of the 4 different vessel types. Therefore, a fluctuation of BDI does not always coincide with those of the 4 drybulker markets.
1
Average
② Drybulkers Port Congestion (Source: Howe Robinson) (Number of Vessels)
200 Australian Loading Ports for Coal Brazilian Loading Ports for Iron O re
180
Australian Loading Ports for Iron O re Chinese Discharging Ports for Iron O re
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
0
③ Chinese Port Stock Pile of Imported Iron Ore (Source: Bloomberg) (million ton)
85 80 75 70 65 60 55
2
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
50
2. Tankers ① VLCC Market (Source: Drewry, RIM etc.) VLCC spot rate(AG/East)
Crude oil price (Dubai) 140
350 317
120
300
234
250
100
80
150
60
WS
US$/b
200
40
100 66
55 50
29
20
27
0
Average
Jan-2010
Jan-2009
Jan-2008
Jan-2007
Jan-2006
Jan-2005
Jan-2004
Jan-2003
Jan-2002
Jan-2001
Jan-2000
0
（ WS: World Scale) Upper row: Average of calendar year (Jan.-Dec.) / Lower row: Average of fiscal year (Apr.-Mar.)
2000 AG-Asia VLCC Freight
2001
110 119
2002
66 51
2003
50 69
2004
93 94
2005
149 146
2006
101 100
2007
90 82
2008
79 90
2009
120 114
40 49
AG:Arabian Gulf
Jan
2009 2010
Feb
53 97
M ar
42 76
Apr
37 76
M ay
28 88
Jun
Jul
27 72
42 90
Aug
35 57
Sept
36 50
Oct
34 47
Nov
41 47
Dec
46 66
55
② Product Tanker Market (Source: Drewry) WS 700 LR AG-JP 50-60,000 dwt 585
MR Spr.-East 25-30,000 dwt
600 463
500
407 400
414
346
406
403
437
395
371
300 213
283
260
200
165
208 196
158 100
157 120
117
00. 1 3 5 7 9 11 01. 1 3 5 7 9 11 02. 1 3 5 7 9 11 03. 1 3 5 7 9 11 04. 1 3 5 7 9 11 05. 1 3 5 7 9 11 06. 1 3 5 7 9 11 07. 1 3 5 7 9 11 08. 1 3 5 7 9 11 09. 1 3 5 7 9 11 10. 1 3 5 7 9 11
0
Average
（ WS: World Scale) Upper row: Average of calendar year (Jan.-Dec.) / Lower row: Average of fiscal year (Apr.-Mar.)
2000 LR AG-JP 50-60,000 dwt MR Spr.-East 25-30,000 dwt
237 292 285 333
2001 249 183 287 224 Jan
LR AG-JP 50-60,000 dwt M R Spr.-East 25-30,000 dwt
2009 2010 2009 2010
85 151 105 145
2002 152 182 196 223 Feb 118 139 131 155
2003
2004
218 214 265 267 Mar 79 124 98 144
251 259 307 318 Apr
3
52 126 82 143
2005
2006
276 269 366 368 May 63 143 77 215
214 198 312 293 Jun 85 123 240
2007 181 185 274 269 Jul 87 128 110 161
2008
2009
250 226 287 251 Aug 94 161 127 155
93 104 117 128 Sept 104 141 120 -
Oct 131 110 163 183
Nov 100 120 -
Dec 121 158
165
3. Car Carriers ① Export Volumes of Automobile from Japan (Source:Japan Automobile Manufactures Association) 700
(Broken Line: yoy-change)
(Bar/Unit:1000 )
100% 80%
600
60%
500
40%
400
20%
300
0% -20%
200
-40%
100
-60%
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-80%
2008
2009
2010
* New vehicle (incl. KD)
3. Container Cargo Trades ① China Containerized Freight Index (Source:SSE) CCFI W/C America Service
CCFI E/C America Service
CCFI Europe Service
2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900
1998.1.1＝1,000
700
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Jan-08
Apr-08
500
* CCFI reflects the freight rate trend for container exports from China only, which does not always match the overall trend for container exports from Asia. Therefore, this information is provided and updated only for reference purposes.
② World Total Containership Capacity (As of March 2010; Clarkson Research Studies’ statistics etc.) (1000T EU)
14,000
20%
T EU
Growth
18%
12,000 16% 10,000
14% 12%
8,000
10% 6,000
8% 6%
4,000
4% 2,000 2% 0
0% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Calendar Year
4
③ Cargo Movements: North America Outbound (Asia→North America) (Broken Line: yoy-change)
(Bar:1000TEU)
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2008
2009
2008 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010
2009
Cumulative
1,047 1,038 882 1,026 1,100 1,028 1,077 1,168 1,119 1,129 974 862 12,450
1,047 2,085 2,968 3,994 5,094 6,122 7,198 8,366 9,485 10,614 11,588 12,450
M onthly
950 722 835 876 911 898 994 1,036 1,045 1,085 982 935 11,268
Increase/ decrease
2010
Cumulative
-9.3% -30.5% -5.4% -14.6% -17.2% -12.7% -7.7% -11.3% -6.6% -3.9% 0.8% 8.4%
950 1,671 2,506 3,382 4,293 5,191 6,185 7,221 8,267 9,351 10,333 11,268
Increase/ decrease
-9.3% -19.9% -15.6% -15.3% -15.7% -15.2% -14.1% -13.7% -12.8% -11.9% -10.8% -9.5%
M onthly
995 907 918 992 1,101 1,145 1,174 1,255 1,173 1,196
Increase/ decrease
Cumulative
4.8% 25.7% 10.0% 13.3% 20.8% 27.5% 18.1% 21.1% 12.2% 10.3%
995 1,903 2,821 3,813 4,914 6,059 7,232 8,488 9,660 10,857
4.8% 13.8% 12.6% 12.7% 14.5% 16.7% 16.9% 17.5% 16.9% 16.1%
10,857 Source：Piers JoC
④ Cargo Movements: North America Inbound (North America→Asia) 600
Increase/ decrease
(Bar:1000TEU)
(Broken Line:yoy-change)
500 400 300 200 100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2008
2009
2008 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
459 525 522 521 547 497 538 519 457 434 361 341 5,722
2010
2009
Cumulative
459 984 1,506 2,027 2,575 3,072 3,610 4,129 4,586 5,020 5,381 5,722
M onthly
377 411 514 507 534 517 512 527 503 520 516 536 5,973
Increase/ decrease
2010
Cumulative
-18.0% -21.7% -1.5% -2.7% -2.5% 4.1% -4.9% 1.6% 10.0% 19.8% 43.0% 57.0%
377 788 1,302 1,809 2,343 2,860 3,372 3,899 4,402 4,922 5,437 5,973
Increase/ decrease
-18.0% -20.0% -13.6% -10.8% -9.0% -6.9% -6.6% -5.6% -4.0% -2.0% 1.0% 4.4%
M onthly
472 487 528 535 522 498 499 503 482 552
Increase/ decrease
25.3% 18.4% 2.7% 5.5% -2.2% -3.8% -2.5% -4.6% -4.2% 6.2%
Cumulative
472 959 1,487 2,022 2,544 3,042 3,540 4,044 4,525 5,077
Increase/ decrease
25.3% 21.7% 14.2% 11.7% 8.6% 6.3% 5.0% 3.7% 2.8% 3.2%
5,077
5
Source：Piers JoC
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
⑤ Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Outbound (Asia→Europe) 1,400
(Broken Line:yoy-change)
(Bar:1000TEU)
1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
2008
2009
2008 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2009
Cumulative
1,236 924 1,166 1,170 1,170 1,212 1,203 1,217 1,164 1,074 947 1,010 13,494
2010
1,236 2,160 3,326 4,496 5,666 6,879 8,082 9,299 10,463 11,538 12,485 13,494
M onthly
1,018 618 955 878 933 955 993 1,068 1,052 953 971 1,099 11,493
Increase/ decrease
2010
Cumulative
-17.6% -33.1% -18.1% -25.0% -20.3% -21.2% -17.5% -12.2% -9.7% -11.3% 2.5% 8.9%
1,018 1,636 2,591 3,469 4,402 5,357 6,350 7,418 8,470 9,423 10,394 11,493
Increase/ decrease
-17.6% -24.2% -22.1% -22.8% -22.3% -22.1% -21.4% -20.2% -19.1% -18.3% -16.7% -14.8%
M onthly
1,116 943 1,077 1,121 1,158 1,155 1,215 1,241 1,123 1,088
Increase/ decrease
Cumulative
9.6% 52.5% 12.7% 27.7% 24.2% 20.8% 22.4% 16.1% 6.8% 14.1%
1,116 2,059 3,135 4,257 5,415 6,569 7,784 9,025 10,148 11,236
Increase/ decrease
9.6% 25.8% 21.0% 22.7% 23.0% 22.6% 22.6% 21.7% 19.8% 19.2%
11,236 Source：ELAA(October, 2008～)
⑥ Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Inbound (Europe→Asia) 600
(Bar:1000TEU)
(Broken Line:yoy-change)
50% 40%
500
30%
400
20% 10%
300
0%
200
-10%
100
-20% -30%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2008
2009
2008 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
391 453 483 491 462 492 490 428 406 413 357 370 5,235
2010
2009
Cumulative
391 844 1,327 1,817 2,280 2,771 3,261 3,690 4,095 4,509 4,865 5,235
M onthly
310 359 451 439 498 484 493 465 488 476 464 530 5,458
Increase/ decrease
2010
Cumulative
-20.6% -20.8% -6.6% -10.6% 7.8% -1.5% 0.7% 8.6% 20.3% 15.3% 30.1% 43.4%
310 669 1,120 1,559 2,057 2,541 3,035 3,500 3,988 4,464 4,928 5,458
Increase/ decrease
-20.6% -20.7% -15.5% -14.2% -9.8% -8.3% -6.9% -5.1% -2.6% -1.0% 1.3% 4.3%
M onthly
417 452 508 476 483 470 467 447 447 444
Increase/ decrease
34.4% 26.0% 12.7% 8.4% -3.1% -2.9% -5.4% -3.8% -8.5% -6.8%
Cumulative
417 869 1,377 1,853 2,336 2,806 3,273 3,720 4,167 4,611
Increase/ decrease
34.4% 29.9% 23.0% 18.9% 13.6% 10.4% 7.9% 6.3% 4.5% 3.3%
4,611 Source：ELAA(October, 2008～)
6
⑦ North America Outbound Supply-Demand Transition [ Asia → North America ] (1000TEU)
18,000
-10% Demand
Supply
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
16,000 0% 14,000 10.4% 12,000
12.4%
13.7%
12.9%
10%
13.6%
13.9%
19.2%
10,000
6,000 4,000
16,655
16,347
8,000 11,378
10,016 9,817 8,974
12,841 11,248
14,685 14,080 12,792
14,386
16,537 25.9% 13,367 15,620 11,579
20%
30%
40% 2,000 0
50% 2002
2003
2004
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
Gap Ratio
2005
2006
2007
2008
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
8,974 9,817 11,248 12,792 14,080 14,386 13,367 11,579
21.3% 9.4% 14.6% 13.7% 10.1% 2.2% -7.1% -13.4%
10,016 11,378 12,841 14,685 16,347 16,655 16,537 15,620
6.5% 13.6% 12.9% 14.4% 11.3% 1.9% -0.7% -5.5%
cf. Containership Demand Forecast byConsultants & Research Companies Drewry IHS Global Insight 2010e 16.6% 15.7% 2011e 6.1% 8.1% Source：Drewry, IHS Global Insight as of December 2010
2009
(Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2010
⑧ North America Inbound Supply-Demand Transition [ North America → Asia ] 16,000
(1000TEU)
40% Demand
Supply
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
14,000 45% 48.7%
12,000 50.7%
51.3%
50%
52.5%
10,000
54.2% 56.2%
8,000
55% 59.1% 12,239
6,000 10,622 4,000 2,000
8,108 3,951
13,758 60.9%
13,547
13,747
12,761 60%
9,220
4,378
4,654
5,000
5,381
6,296
6,674
6,551
0
65%
70% 2002
2003
2004
2005
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
Gap Ratio
2006
2007
2008
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
2009
(Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2010
7
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3,951 4,378 4,654 5,000 5,381 6,296 6,674 6,551
8.1% 10.8% 6.3% 7.4% 7.6% 17.0% 6.0% -1.8%
8,108 9,220 10,622 12,239 13,758 13,747 13,547 12,761
7.5% 13.7% 15.2% 15.2% 12.4% -0.1% -1.5% -5.8%
⑨ Europe Outbound Supply-Demand Transition [ Asia → Europe ] （1000TEU)
20,000
Demand
18,000
7.3%
Supply
16,000 14,000
10%
19.1%
23.5%
20%
12,000
30%
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000
10,870
9,229 8,554
9,643
12,635 11,276
40%
17,346
14,714 13,373
14,276 11,547
13,269
50% 60%
2,000
70%
0
80% 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth Demand
Supply
1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
0%
9.1%
10.8%
11.3%
-10%
Gap Ratio
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
8,554 9,643 11,276 13,373 13,269 11,547
12.7% 16.9% 18.6% -0.8% -13.0%
9,229 10,870 12,635 14,714 17,346 14,276
17.8% 16.2% 16.5% 17.9% -17.7%
cf. Containership Demand Forecast byConsultants & Research Companies Drewry IHS Global Insight 2010e 16.4% 11.9% 2011e 5.7% 6.5% Source：Drewry, IHS Global Insight
as of December 2010
2009
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
(Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2010
⑩ Europe Inbound Supply-Demand Transition [ Europe → Asia ] （1000TEU)
14,000
20% Demand
Supply
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
12,000
30%
35.3% 10,000
42.0%
40% 47.8%
8,000
49.1% 53.3%
6,000
11,166 9,543
4,000 2,000
7,131 4,613
50%
13,159 62.0%
10,794 60%
8,251 4,782
4,979
5,217
4,996
5,489
0
70%
80% 2004
2005
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
Gap Ratio
2006
2007
2008
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
2009 (Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2010
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
4,613 4,782 4,979 5,217 4,996 5,489
3.7% 4.1% 4.8% -4.2% 9.9%
7,131 8,251 9,543 11,166 13,159 10,794
15.7% 15.7% 17.0% 17.8% -18.0%
5. Exchange Rate / Bunker Price ① Exchange Rate （Yen/US$） ¥120 ¥110 ¥100 ¥90 ¥80 ¥70 ¥60 2008/1
2008/4
2008/7
2008/10
2009/1
2009/4
2009/7
2009/10
2010/1
2010/4
2010/7
2010/10
② Bunker Price $800
*Price at Singapore (Grade:380CST)
($/MT)
$700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 2008/1
2008/4
2008/7
2008/10
2009/1
2009/4
2009/7
9
2009/10
2010/1
2010/4
2010/7
2010/10
