MC Group Outperform (17E TP Bt22.50)
Company Update
Close Bt18.80
Commerce April 27, 2017
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
To launch M&C skin care Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.183
1.314
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
5.7%
6.5%
Reuters / Bloomberg
MC.BK/MC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
800.00
Par (Bt)
0.50
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
15.00/436.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/21.17
52 week High / Low (Bt)
23.80/11.90
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
2,150.00
NVDR (%)
4.99
Estimated free float (%)
38.9
Beta
0.80
URL
www.mcgroupnet.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273
OUTPERFORM rating maintained Our OUTPERFORM rating is maintained given our optimistic view on MC’s strategy for growth. The new product offerings together with its fast‐ moving marketing strategy will allow MC to keep pace with the economic recovery and sustain growth. MC is also attractive for the nearly 6% yield. Note that MC goes XD today at Bt0.50 apiece for the 2H16 performance. First M&C products to be launched in 2Q17 MC yesterday hosted a meeting to share its business strategy for its new M&C skin care products. M&C products are positioned as quality skin care with active ingredients as well as unique and appealing fragrances. The first product lineup that includes body lotion, shower gel, bar soap, talcum and perfume will be launched by the end of 2Q17. The products will be available through MC’s nationwide distribution channels including the online platform. Prospective channels such as pop‐up stores will also be used to grow brand awareness. In addition to developing the M&C brand for the OEM market, its veteran partner has also appointed the company to act as distributor for its “Nature Touch” brand in the retail market. Nature Touch will be positioned in the high‐end market while M&C targets the medium‐end market. The first collection is expected to be launched in 1H17. The company has set a target for this new product line at a minimum of 5% of total sales within five years. Earnings to grow solidly in 1Q17E We expect MC to deliver a net profit of Bt222mn in 1Q17E, increasing 9.8%YoY. Its revenue should grow 7.5%YoY on the back of recovery in overall domestic consumption, new lifestyle product offerings and its successful weekly promotional campaign. The improvement in its gross margin on effective cost control will be partly offset by higher SG&A. Full‐year guidance maintained MC maintained its revenue growth guidance within a range of 12%‐15% in 2017. The company is confident about keeping its benchmark margin despite active campaigns supporting new products launched this year. We thus keep our earnings forecast unchanged. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2015 3,895 732 0.92 0.92 2.9% 0.75 5.09 2015 13.11 9.67 2.36 6.3% 18.3% net cash
2016 4,442 843 1.05 1.05 15.1% 0.90 5.36 2016 14.33 10.09 2.82 6.0% 20.2% net cash
2017E 5,076 999 1.25 1.25 18.5% 1.06 5.69 2017E 15.05 11.38 3.30 5.6% 22.6% net cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2018E 5,641 1,122 1.40 1.40 12.3% 1.12 6.02 2018E 13.41 9.75 3.12 6.0% 24.0% net cash
2019E 6,200 1,256 1.57 1.57 12.0% 1.26 6.43 2019E 11.97 9.02 2.92 6.7% 25.2% net cash
Figure 1: M&C Products
Source: MC Figure 2: Earnings preview Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec. 1Q16 Revenue 1,144 Gross Profit 592 SG&A expenses 374 EBITDA 268 Gain (Loss) from affiliates (9) Net profit (loss) 202 Core profit (loss) 202 Reported EPS (THB) 0.25 Gross margin (%) 51.8% EBITDA margin (%) 23.4% Net margin (%) 17.7% Current ratio (x) 5.46 Interest coverage (x) 224.05 Debt to equity (x) 0.18 BVPS (Bt) 5.35 ROE (%) 18.7%
2Q16 1,007 549 367 231 16 191 191 0.24 54.5% 23.0% 19.0% 5.99 261.18 0.16 5.19 18.9%
3Q16 880 484 367 168 6 132 132 0.17 55.0% 19.1% 15.0% 5.19 180.19 0.19 4.96 19.2%
4Q16 1,411 805 447 420 (7) 317 317 0.40 57.1% 29.8% 22.5% 4.82 532.71 0.21 5.36 20.3%
1Q17E 1,230 662 422 291 (5) 222 222 0.28 53.8% 23.7% 18.1% 5.46 351.05 0.17 5.63 20.5%
%QoQ ‐12.8% ‐17.8% ‐5.6% ‐30.6% ‐25.3% ‐30.0% ‐30.0% ‐30.0% ‐3.3% ‐6.1% ‐4.4%
5.1%
%YoY 7.5% 11.7% 12.9% 8.7% ‐46.4% 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% 2.0% 0.3% 0.4%
2017E 5,076 2,791 1,763 1,237 7 999 999 1.25 55.0% 24.4% 19.7% 4.45 212.99 0.24 5.2% 5.69 22.6%
YTD %YoY (% of 17E) 14.3% 27.7% 14.8% 27.2% 13.4% 27.2% 13.8% 26.8% 10.8% ‐79.8% 18.5% 26.3% 18.5% 26.3% 18.5% 26.3% 0.3% ‐0.1% 0.7%
6.2%
Source: MC Figure 3: PER and PBV band
Source: Bloomberg, KT Zmico Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD, TTL, NMG.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD)
Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC) Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy DISCLAIMER
This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068