Overview of the Environmental Industry and Climate Change Markets ...
Overview of the Environmental Industry and Climate Change Markets Grant Ferrier Environmental Business International
May 2009
Environmental Industry Review 2011 Grant Ferrier Editor, Environmental Business Journal Editor, Climate Change Business Journal President, Environmental Business International, Inc. Chairman, Environmental Industry Summit X, March 14-16, 2012
Presentation Outline
Environmental Industry 2009 and 2010 Review Outlook for 2011-2012 EBJ Snapshot Survey Results Consulting & Engineering Segment Climate Change Industry
How Bad Was It: 2009-2010 Environmental Industry 2007-08 Segment
2008
Growth
2008-09 2009
Growth
2009-10 2010
Growth
Environmental Services Analytical Services
1.95
3.0%
1.79
-8.4%
1.88
5.5%
Wastewater Treatment Works
40.95
4.4%
43.65
6.6%
45.22
3.6%
Solid Waste Management
53.45
3.2%
51.07
-4.4%
53.38
4.5%
Hazardous Waste Management
9.18
1.1%
8.64
-5.9%
8.99
4.0%
Remediation/Industrial Services
12.56
3.2%
12.12
-3.5%
12.85
6.0%
Consulting & Engineering
26.69
4.2%
25.66
-3.9%
26.18
2.0%
28.52
4.5%
26.62
-6.7%
28.14
5.7%
5.34
2.8%
5.20
-2.7%
5.42
4.2%
Air Pollution Control Equipment
17.97
-1.8%
15.85
-11.8%
14.94
-5.7%
Waste Management Equipment
11.40
3.6%
10.52
-7.7%
10.77
2.4%
1.91
6.1%
1.80
-5.8%
1.88
4.4%
Water Utilities
39.22
3.5%
40.59
3.5%
42.01
3.5%
Resource Recovery
28.22
-10.0%
24.23
-14.2%
28.52
17.7%
Clean Energy Systems & Power
30.65
38.8%
35.19
14.8%
32.28
-8.3%
308.02
4.5%
302.92
-1.7%
312.45
3.1%
Environmental Equipment Water Equipment and Chemicals Instruments & Information Systems
Process & Prevention Technology Resource Management
TOTALS:
New England Environmental Industry U.S. Environmental Industry: New England in 2009
State
Revenues $bil
Jobs
Companies
Exports $mil
Connecticut
3.93
21,780
1,507
740
Maine
2.13
10,917
938
231
Massachusetts
7.19
38,634
2,811
2,001
New Hampshire
1.38
7,567
669
445
Rhode Island
0.89
4,968
409
111
Vermont
0.72
3,919
265
75
16.23
87,785
6,598
3,603
302.92
1,637,200
117,650
40,329
5.4%
5.4%
5.6%
8.9%
Sum Total U.S. Share
EI vs. US GDP Growth: 1988-2010 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 [02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 -2% -4%
USA GDP growth
USA Environmental Industry growth
C&E vs. US GDP Growth: 1990-2010 10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% 91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
[02
03
04
-2%
-4%
USA GDP growth
C&E Growth
05
06
07
08
09
10
Growth and Profits: EFCG Happiness Q 25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0% 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Internal Growth
2001
2002
2003
Profitability
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Zofnass Happiness Quotient
Source: Environmental Financial Consulting Group, New York
2010
EBJ Snapshot Survey 2011 Results: Mean Growth (Jan-Feb 2011: n=250) 7.8%
8% 7% 6% 4.9% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%
0.6%
0% 2009
2010
Source: Environmental Business Journal 2011 Snapshot Survey
2011f
EBJ Mid-Year Survey 2011 Results: Mean Growth (August 2011: n=80) 7.6%
8% 7% 6%
5.2%
5%
4.8%
4% 3% 2% 1%
0.6%
0% 2009
2010
2011
Source: Environmental Business Journal Mid-Year 2011 Snapshot Survey
2012
EBJ Snapshot Survey 2011 Results: January-February 2011: 324 Respondents Laboratory Testing or Analytical Services Solid Waste Management Hazardous Waste Management Remediation or Industrial Services Contracting Environmental Consulting & Engineering Sustainability or Climate Change Consulting Water Equipment and Chemicals Instruments/Information Systems & Software Air Pollution Control Equipment Waste Management Equipment Renewable/Clean Energy Systems & Equipment Renewables/Energy Efficiency Services Water/Wastewater Utilitiy Non-Profit/NGO Government Investment/Business Consultant Insurance/Accounting/Legal Services to Env'l Cos Industry/Customer/User Community
7.8% 1.2% 0.8% 9.5% 47.3% 3.7% 2.5% 1.6% 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.9% 1.6% 4.5% 4.1% 2.5% 0.4% 2.5%
EBJ Snapshot Survey 2011 Results: January-February 2011: 324 Respondents $0-3 million in revenue $3-10 million in revenue $10-20 million in revenue $20-50 million in revenue $50-100 million in revenue $100-500 million in revenue $500-1,000 million in revenue More than $1 billion in revenue
31.7% 14.5% 9.2% 11.8% 6.5% 12.5% 3.8% 9.9%
2010 Growth: 27% declined; 26% grew 0-4%; 28% grew 4-12%; 19% grew 12% or more: Mid-Year: 32% decline; 18% grew 12%+ More than 30%
4.6%
25-30%
5.5%
18-20%
4.6%
14-16%
3.8%
12-14%
1.3%
10-12%
6.3%
8-10%
5.9%
6-8%
6.7%
4-6%
8.8%
2-4%
11.3%
0-2% 0% to –2%
14.7%
8.4%
-2% to -4%
2.5%
-4% to -6%
2.5%
-6% to -8%
1.3%
-8% to -10%
2.5%
-10% to –15%
2.9%
-15% to –20%
2.9%
Less than –20%
3.4% 0%
3%
6%
Source: Environmental Business Journal 2011 Snapshot Survey
9%
12%
15%
2011 Forecast: 9% decline; 28% grow 0-4%; 41% grow 4-12%; 22% grow 12% or more; Mid-Year: 20% decline; 13% grow 12%+ 3.7%
More than 30%
2.9%
25-30%
4.1%
20-25%
5.3%
18-20%
0.8%
16-18%
3.3%
14-16%
1.6%
12-14%
6.9%
10-12%
11.8%
8-10% 6-8%
10.6% 11.8%
4-6%
17.1%
2-4%
11.0%
0-2% 0% to –2%
4.1% 0.4%
-2% to -5% -5% to –10%
2.0%
-10% to –20%
1.6%
Less than –20%
0.8% 0%
3%
6%
9%
Source: Environmental Business Journal 2011 Snapshot Survey
12%
15%
18%
Ranking of Market Drivers in 2011: Positives V Strong: Positive
Strong: Positive
No Strong: V Strong: Impact Negative Negative
Activity in energy & power sector
14%
51%
30%
4%
1%
Activity in extraction (O&G, shale, mining)
13%
44%
39%
4%
1%
Federal air/water/waste regulations
9%
55%
29%
8%
1%
Programs in clean energy infrastructure
8%
50%
38%
4%
0%
State of the economy
9%
44%
9%
33%
6%
Obama administration env'l policy
6%
53%
26%
11%
4%
Corporate sustainability initiatives
7%
46%
39%
8%
0%
U.S./regional/state climate change policy
6%
43%
42%
6%
3%
10%
33%
27%
28%
3%
Price of oil
8%
36%
36%
16%
5%
ARRA or the U.S. stimulus package
8%
35%
47%
9%
1%
Federal budgets
Source: Environmental Business Journal 2011 Snapshot Survey of 324 executives; Question was: Please assess the expected impact of market drivers in 2011 on your company's ability to generate revenues.
Ranking of Market Drivers in 2011: Negatives V Strong: Positive
Strong: Positive
No Strong: V Strong: Impact Negative Negative
Programs to develop 'green jobs'
6%
34%
55%
5%
1%
International climate change policy
5%
30%
55%
7%
3%
Availability of credit
5%
30%
39%
21%
6%
Popular perceptions on climate change
2%
34%
60%
5%
1%
Property values
4%
25%
50%
21%
1%
Stock market performance
2%
31%
60%
7%
1%
Value of the dollar
0%
29%
56%
15%
1%
Level of consumer spending
2%
21%
61%
15%
3%
International climate change negotiations
1%
23%
72%
4%
1%
Municipal budgets
6%
25%
29%
28%
11%
State budgets
6%
25%
25%
34%
11%
U.S. Congress rollback of envi'l regs
3%
19%
25%
41%
11%
Source: Environmental Business Journal 2011 Snapshot Survey of 324 executives; Question was: Please assess the expected impact of market drivers in 2011 on your company's ability to generate revenues.
What is the likelihood that Congress will succeed in preventing EPA from regulating greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act? 90-100%
4%
80-90%
5% 10%
70-80%
12%
60-70%
16%
50-60% 40-50%
11%
30-40%
14% 12%
20-30%
7%
10-20%
9%
May 2009
Environmental Industry Review 2011 Grant Ferrier Editor, Environmental Business Journal Editor, Climate Change Business Journal President, Environmental Business International, Inc. Chairman, Environmental Industry Summit X, March 14-16, 2012
Presentation Outline
Environmental Industry 2009 and 2010 Review Outlook for 2011-2012 EBJ Snapshot Survey Results Consulting & Engineering Segment Climate Change Industry
How Bad Was It: 2009-2010 Environmental Industry 2007-08 Segment
2008
Growth
2008-09 2009
Growth
2009-10 2010
Growth
Environmental Services Analytical Services
1.95
3.0%
1.79
-8.4%
1.88
5.5%
Wastewater Treatment Works
40.95
4.4%
43.65
6.6%
45.22
3.6%
Solid Waste Management
53.45
3.2%
51.07
-4.4%
53.38
4.5%
Hazardous Waste Management
9.18
1.1%
8.64
-5.9%
8.99
4.0%
Remediation/Industrial Services
12.56
3.2%
12.12
-3.5%
12.85
6.0%
Consulting & Engineering
26.69
4.2%
25.66
-3.9%
26.18
2.0%
28.52
4.5%
26.62
-6.7%
28.14
5.7%
5.34
2.8%
5.20
-2.7%
5.42
4.2%
Air Pollution Control Equipment
17.97
-1.8%
15.85
-11.8%
14.94
-5.7%
Waste Management Equipment
11.40
3.6%
10.52
-7.7%
10.77
2.4%
1.91
6.1%
1.80
-5.8%
1.88
4.4%
Water Utilities
39.22
3.5%
40.59
3.5%
42.01
3.5%
Resource Recovery
28.22
-10.0%
24.23
-14.2%
28.52
17.7%
Clean Energy Systems & Power
30.65
38.8%
35.19
14.8%
32.28
-8.3%
308.02
4.5%
302.92
-1.7%
312.45
3.1%
Environmental Equipment Water Equipment and Chemicals Instruments & Information Systems
Process & Prevention Technology Resource Management
TOTALS:
New England Environmental Industry U.S. Environmental Industry: New England in 2009
State
Revenues $bil
Jobs
Companies
Exports $mil
Connecticut
3.93
21,780
1,507
740
Maine
2.13
10,917
938
231
Massachusetts
7.19
38,634
2,811
2,001
New Hampshire
1.38
7,567
669
445
Rhode Island
0.89
4,968
409
111
Vermont
0.72
3,919
265
75
16.23
87,785
6,598
3,603
302.92
1,637,200
117,650
40,329
5.4%
5.4%
5.6%
8.9%
Sum Total U.S. Share
EI vs. US GDP Growth: 1988-2010 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 [02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 -2% -4%
USA GDP growth
USA Environmental Industry growth
C&E vs. US GDP Growth: 1990-2010 10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% 91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
[02
03
04
-2%
-4%
USA GDP growth
C&E Growth
05
06
07
08
09
10
Growth and Profits: EFCG Happiness Q 25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0% 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Internal Growth
2001
2002
2003
Profitability
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Zofnass Happiness Quotient
Source: Environmental Financial Consulting Group, New York
2010
EBJ Snapshot Survey 2011 Results: Mean Growth (Jan-Feb 2011: n=250) 7.8%
8% 7% 6% 4.9% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%
0.6%
0% 2009
2010
Source: Environmental Business Journal 2011 Snapshot Survey
2011f
EBJ Mid-Year Survey 2011 Results: Mean Growth (August 2011: n=80) 7.6%
8% 7% 6%
5.2%
5%
4.8%
4% 3% 2% 1%
0.6%
0% 2009
2010
2011
Source: Environmental Business Journal Mid-Year 2011 Snapshot Survey
2012
EBJ Snapshot Survey 2011 Results: January-February 2011: 324 Respondents Laboratory Testing or Analytical Services Solid Waste Management Hazardous Waste Management Remediation or Industrial Services Contracting Environmental Consulting & Engineering Sustainability or Climate Change Consulting Water Equipment and Chemicals Instruments/Information Systems & Software Air Pollution Control Equipment Waste Management Equipment Renewable/Clean Energy Systems & Equipment Renewables/Energy Efficiency Services Water/Wastewater Utilitiy Non-Profit/NGO Government Investment/Business Consultant Insurance/Accounting/Legal Services to Env'l Cos Industry/Customer/User Community
7.8% 1.2% 0.8% 9.5% 47.3% 3.7% 2.5% 1.6% 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.9% 1.6% 4.5% 4.1% 2.5% 0.4% 2.5%
EBJ Snapshot Survey 2011 Results: January-February 2011: 324 Respondents $0-3 million in revenue $3-10 million in revenue $10-20 million in revenue $20-50 million in revenue $50-100 million in revenue $100-500 million in revenue $500-1,000 million in revenue More than $1 billion in revenue
31.7% 14.5% 9.2% 11.8% 6.5% 12.5% 3.8% 9.9%
2010 Growth: 27% declined; 26% grew 0-4%; 28% grew 4-12%; 19% grew 12% or more: Mid-Year: 32% decline; 18% grew 12%+ More than 30%
4.6%
25-30%
5.5%
18-20%
4.6%
14-16%
3.8%
12-14%
1.3%
10-12%
6.3%
8-10%
5.9%
6-8%
6.7%
4-6%
8.8%
2-4%
11.3%
0-2% 0% to –2%
14.7%
8.4%
-2% to -4%
2.5%
-4% to -6%
2.5%
-6% to -8%
1.3%
-8% to -10%
2.5%
-10% to –15%
2.9%
-15% to –20%
2.9%
Less than –20%
3.4% 0%
3%
6%
Source: Environmental Business Journal 2011 Snapshot Survey
9%
12%
15%
2011 Forecast: 9% decline; 28% grow 0-4%; 41% grow 4-12%; 22% grow 12% or more; Mid-Year: 20% decline; 13% grow 12%+ 3.7%
More than 30%
2.9%
25-30%
4.1%
20-25%
5.3%
18-20%
0.8%
16-18%
3.3%
14-16%
1.6%
12-14%
6.9%
10-12%
11.8%
8-10% 6-8%
10.6% 11.8%
4-6%
17.1%
2-4%
11.0%
0-2% 0% to –2%
4.1% 0.4%
-2% to -5% -5% to –10%
2.0%
-10% to –20%
1.6%
Less than –20%
0.8% 0%
3%
6%
9%
Source: Environmental Business Journal 2011 Snapshot Survey
12%
15%
18%
Ranking of Market Drivers in 2011: Positives V Strong: Positive
Strong: Positive
No Strong: V Strong: Impact Negative Negative
Activity in energy & power sector
14%
51%
30%
4%
1%
Activity in extraction (O&G, shale, mining)
13%
44%
39%
4%
1%
Federal air/water/waste regulations
9%
55%
29%
8%
1%
Programs in clean energy infrastructure
8%
50%
38%
4%
0%
State of the economy
9%
44%
9%
33%
6%
Obama administration env'l policy
6%
53%
26%
11%
4%
Corporate sustainability initiatives
7%
46%
39%
8%
0%
U.S./regional/state climate change policy
6%
43%
42%
6%
3%
10%
33%
27%
28%
3%
Price of oil
8%
36%
36%
16%
5%
ARRA or the U.S. stimulus package
8%
35%
47%
9%
1%
Federal budgets
Source: Environmental Business Journal 2011 Snapshot Survey of 324 executives; Question was: Please assess the expected impact of market drivers in 2011 on your company's ability to generate revenues.
Ranking of Market Drivers in 2011: Negatives V Strong: Positive
Strong: Positive
No Strong: V Strong: Impact Negative Negative
Programs to develop 'green jobs'
6%
34%
55%
5%
1%
International climate change policy
5%
30%
55%
7%
3%
Availability of credit
5%
30%
39%
21%
6%
Popular perceptions on climate change
2%
34%
60%
5%
1%
Property values
4%
25%
50%
21%
1%
Stock market performance
2%
31%
60%
7%
1%
Value of the dollar
0%
29%
56%
15%
1%
Level of consumer spending
2%
21%
61%
15%
3%
International climate change negotiations
1%
23%
72%
4%
1%
Municipal budgets
6%
25%
29%
28%
11%
State budgets
6%
25%
25%
34%
11%
U.S. Congress rollback of envi'l regs
3%
19%
25%
41%
11%
Source: Environmental Business Journal 2011 Snapshot Survey of 324 executives; Question was: Please assess the expected impact of market drivers in 2011 on your company's ability to generate revenues.
What is the likelihood that Congress will succeed in preventing EPA from regulating greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act? 90-100%
4%
80-90%
5% 10%
70-80%
12%
60-70%
16%
50-60% 40-50%
11%
30-40%
14% 12%
20-30%
7%
10-20%
9%
