PA and OH SREC Market Update
PA and OH SREC Market Update April 8, 2014 ©2014 SRECTrade, Inc.
Speakers Steven Eisenberg CEO
Alex Sheets Director Environmental Markets
Sam Rust Director Business Development
Agenda • Company Overview Sam Rust
• Solar Capacity and SREC Supply Steven Eisenberg
• SREC Pricing Alex Sheets
• Q and A 3
Overview
Online SREC transaction & management platform • • • • •
Since 2008 9,000+ clients 135+ MW under management 100% SREC focused Brokerage model
4
Services Corporate Electricity suppliers and institutional clients with systems above 250 kW
Residential and Small Commercial Home owners and commercial systems smaller than 250 kW
Installers Turn-key SREC solutions for solar installers and developers
5
PA Capacity in PJM GATS PJM GATS Registered Capacity as of 3/14/14 = 335.7 MW • 188.9 MW from PA sited • 146.8 MW from Other, 79.6 MW DC, MD, or NJ eligible • ~256.1 MW PA eligible; 110 MW also eligible for OH 350.0
EY2014 0.084% Solar Req.
300.0 250.0
Estimated SRECs Req.= 130k SRECs
200.0
150.0 100.0 50.0 -
PA In-State Total PA2012 MW Req. PA 2014 MW Req.
PA Out-of-State PA2013 MW Req.
Estimated Avg. Annual MW Balance Needed* = 108 MW (*not including older vintage)
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates 6
PA SREC Supply EY2014 YTD: ~232k SRECs eligible Feb-2014 issuance • EY2014 total eligible supply = ~517k SRECs (includes old vintages) 500,000 400,000
231,996
300,000 200,000
PA2014 SRECs Req.
212,672
100,000 72,061 -
2014
Eligible EY2012 Eligible EY2013 Eligible EY2014 Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
EY2014: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~390k SRECs EY2015: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~240k SRECs EY2016: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~150k SRECs 7
OH Capacity in PJM GATS PJM GATS Registered Capacity as of 3/14/14 = 208.7 MW • 96.5 MW OH sited / 112.2 MW OH Eligible • DC Eligible: 1.1 MW OH sited and 9.8 MW OH Eligible • OH Adjusted: 95.4 MW OH Sited / 102.4 MW OH Eligible 250.0
CY2014 0.12% Solar Req.
200.0 150.0
Estimated SRECs Req.= 194k SRECs; 50% from adj. states
100.0 50.0 -
OH In-State OH2012 MW Req. OH2014 MW Req.
OH Out-of-State OH2013 MW Req.
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
Estimated Avg. Annual MW Balance Needed* = 161.8 MW (*not including older vintage) 8
OH Adjacent SREC Supply CY2014 YTD: ~9.3k SRECs eligible Feb-2014 issuance • CY2014 total eligible supply = ~269k SRECs (includes old vintages and forecast) 300,000
250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000
111,350
OH2014 Adj. SRECs Req.
50,000 Eligible CY2010 Eligible CY2012 Eligible CY2014
9,324 56,050 75,974
CY2014: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~172k SRECs CY2015: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~172k SRECs
15,599 1
Eligible CY2011 Eligible CY2013 Forecast CY2014
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
CY2016: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~144k SRECs 9
OH Sited SREC Supply CY2014 YTD: ~9.4k SRECs eligible Feb-2014 issuance • CY2014 total eligible supply = ~159k SRECs (includes old vintages and forecast) 150,000
100,000
OH2014 Sited SRECs Req.
50,000
103,738
9,391 31,541
Eligible CY2010 Eligible CY2012 Eligible CY2014
11,307 1
Eligible CY2011 Eligible CY2013 Forecast CY2014
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
CY2014: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~62k SRECs CY2015: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~53k SRECs CY2016: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~17k SRECs 10
PA2014 Spot Pricing Recent spot transactions have run up • Current PA14 Market: $55 @ $65
Source: SRECTrade 11
OH 2013 Adjacent Spot Pricing Current OH13 Adjacent Market: $50 @ $60
Source: SRECTrade 12
OH 2013 Sited Spot Pricing Current OH13 Sited Market: $50 @ $60
Source: SRECTrade 13
Questions? Mainline: (877) 466-4606 Brokerage Desk: Ext #4 [email protected] Steven Eisenberg [email protected] (415) 702-0863 Alex Sheets [email protected] (802) 989-2617 Sam Rust [email protected] (415) 729-3546
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Speakers Steven Eisenberg CEO
Alex Sheets Director Environmental Markets
Sam Rust Director Business Development
Agenda • Company Overview Sam Rust
• Solar Capacity and SREC Supply Steven Eisenberg
• SREC Pricing Alex Sheets
• Q and A 3
Overview
Online SREC transaction & management platform • • • • •
Since 2008 9,000+ clients 135+ MW under management 100% SREC focused Brokerage model
4
Services Corporate Electricity suppliers and institutional clients with systems above 250 kW
Residential and Small Commercial Home owners and commercial systems smaller than 250 kW
Installers Turn-key SREC solutions for solar installers and developers
5
PA Capacity in PJM GATS PJM GATS Registered Capacity as of 3/14/14 = 335.7 MW • 188.9 MW from PA sited • 146.8 MW from Other, 79.6 MW DC, MD, or NJ eligible • ~256.1 MW PA eligible; 110 MW also eligible for OH 350.0
EY2014 0.084% Solar Req.
300.0 250.0
Estimated SRECs Req.= 130k SRECs
200.0
150.0 100.0 50.0 -
PA In-State Total PA2012 MW Req. PA 2014 MW Req.
PA Out-of-State PA2013 MW Req.
Estimated Avg. Annual MW Balance Needed* = 108 MW (*not including older vintage)
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates 6
PA SREC Supply EY2014 YTD: ~232k SRECs eligible Feb-2014 issuance • EY2014 total eligible supply = ~517k SRECs (includes old vintages) 500,000 400,000
231,996
300,000 200,000
PA2014 SRECs Req.
212,672
100,000 72,061 -
2014
Eligible EY2012 Eligible EY2013 Eligible EY2014 Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
EY2014: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~390k SRECs EY2015: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~240k SRECs EY2016: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~150k SRECs 7
OH Capacity in PJM GATS PJM GATS Registered Capacity as of 3/14/14 = 208.7 MW • 96.5 MW OH sited / 112.2 MW OH Eligible • DC Eligible: 1.1 MW OH sited and 9.8 MW OH Eligible • OH Adjusted: 95.4 MW OH Sited / 102.4 MW OH Eligible 250.0
CY2014 0.12% Solar Req.
200.0 150.0
Estimated SRECs Req.= 194k SRECs; 50% from adj. states
100.0 50.0 -
OH In-State OH2012 MW Req. OH2014 MW Req.
OH Out-of-State OH2013 MW Req.
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
Estimated Avg. Annual MW Balance Needed* = 161.8 MW (*not including older vintage) 8
OH Adjacent SREC Supply CY2014 YTD: ~9.3k SRECs eligible Feb-2014 issuance • CY2014 total eligible supply = ~269k SRECs (includes old vintages and forecast) 300,000
250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000
111,350
OH2014 Adj. SRECs Req.
50,000 Eligible CY2010 Eligible CY2012 Eligible CY2014
9,324 56,050 75,974
CY2014: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~172k SRECs CY2015: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~172k SRECs
15,599 1
Eligible CY2011 Eligible CY2013 Forecast CY2014
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
CY2016: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~144k SRECs 9
OH Sited SREC Supply CY2014 YTD: ~9.4k SRECs eligible Feb-2014 issuance • CY2014 total eligible supply = ~159k SRECs (includes old vintages and forecast) 150,000
100,000
OH2014 Sited SRECs Req.
50,000
103,738
9,391 31,541
Eligible CY2010 Eligible CY2012 Eligible CY2014
11,307 1
Eligible CY2011 Eligible CY2013 Forecast CY2014
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
CY2014: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~62k SRECs CY2015: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~53k SRECs CY2016: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~17k SRECs 10
PA2014 Spot Pricing Recent spot transactions have run up • Current PA14 Market: $55 @ $65
Source: SRECTrade 11
OH 2013 Adjacent Spot Pricing Current OH13 Adjacent Market: $50 @ $60
Source: SRECTrade 12
OH 2013 Sited Spot Pricing Current OH13 Sited Market: $50 @ $60
Source: SRECTrade 13
Questions? Mainline: (877) 466-4606 Brokerage Desk: Ext #4 [email protected] Steven Eisenberg [email protected] (415) 702-0863 Alex Sheets [email protected] (802) 989-2617 Sam Rust [email protected] (415) 729-3546
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