Planalytics AgriBusiness Insights 10062017
Issued : October 6, 2017
It’s October Already—Where’s the Freeze? An Updated Assessment. Not to be Outdone, Hurricane Nate to Make Landfall in the Delta. A Freeze on Freeze Combines have begun rolling out across the Corn Belt recently officially signaling the end of the 2017growing season, but harvest progress continues to lag behind last year and normal. How come?
Actual
One reason is that Mother Nature is late with her first freezes of the season. As the maps on the right show, this year’s freeze reports have been scarce and currently limited to portions of the Dakotas and extreme northern tier locations. Typically by the end of September, all of the Dakotas along with most of Minnesota and Wisconsin (blue shadings) would have seen their first freeze.
Normal
Since we reported on the pattern shift that occurred in mid-September that allowed the cool surges to shift to the western states, this comes as no surprise. Back then we were calling for a “1 to 3 week later than average first freeze episode for most Corn Belt states” that now appears may have been too conservative. As it stands now, that trend could translate into a 2 to 4 week later occurrence vs. normal for many. Outside of an isolated freeze in the Dakotas, northern Minnesota, western Nebraska, and northwest Kansas next Tuesday and Wednesday, the likelihood of a freeze occurring is expected to remain low east of the Rockies over the next couple of weeks. This is great news for farmers whose crops are still making that final push to full maturity… or who still don’t know where they are going to put all the bushels that this late season development could be creating.
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Another Hurricane Expected to Hit Landfall? Here We Go Again. It is an understatement to say that 2017 has been ‘a significant season for tropical hurricanes’. Hurricanes Harvey with its record 50+ inch rains and devastating flooding in Texas along with Irma ‘s catastrophic 130 mph winds and 10-foot storm surge in Florida have already made 2017 the costliest hurricane season since 2005. Insured losses alone are estimated at topping $120 billion between them… and that doesn’t include the cost to the economy – Planalytics estimates $3 billion in lost consumer retail sales in those states due to Harvey and Irma. Cleanup is expected to continue in the worst hit areas for weeks to come, along with reports of significant crop and livestock losses due to the storms.
Hurricane Nate - 5-Day Forecast (through October 10, 2017)
So with harvesting still continuing in some key areas, the last thing we need is another hurricane. Unfortunately, the recent development of Tropical Storm Nate is likely to counter those wishes. The National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook on Nate (above right) has the system expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow and rapidly make its way toward landfall in the coastal Delta region overnight on Sunday. Its rapid track is expected to keep Nate at a relatively lesser intensity at landfall (Category 1, maybe a weak Category 2). Still with top winds approaching 90mph and 4 to 8 inches of rain possible in the Delta and Mid-South, impacts are likely, particularly for those in the midst of harvest. The news is not all bad, though. The very dry eastern states might welcome interruptions to harvesting as the moisture will be quite beneficial… although perhaps too late for crops like Virginia’s peanuts. A return to much drier conditions will follow Nate’s passage.
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
It’s October Already—Where’s the Freeze? An Updated Assessment. Not to be Outdone, Hurricane Nate to Make Landfall in the Delta. A Freeze on Freeze Combines have begun rolling out across the Corn Belt recently officially signaling the end of the 2017growing season, but harvest progress continues to lag behind last year and normal. How come?
Actual
One reason is that Mother Nature is late with her first freezes of the season. As the maps on the right show, this year’s freeze reports have been scarce and currently limited to portions of the Dakotas and extreme northern tier locations. Typically by the end of September, all of the Dakotas along with most of Minnesota and Wisconsin (blue shadings) would have seen their first freeze.
Normal
Since we reported on the pattern shift that occurred in mid-September that allowed the cool surges to shift to the western states, this comes as no surprise. Back then we were calling for a “1 to 3 week later than average first freeze episode for most Corn Belt states” that now appears may have been too conservative. As it stands now, that trend could translate into a 2 to 4 week later occurrence vs. normal for many. Outside of an isolated freeze in the Dakotas, northern Minnesota, western Nebraska, and northwest Kansas next Tuesday and Wednesday, the likelihood of a freeze occurring is expected to remain low east of the Rockies over the next couple of weeks. This is great news for farmers whose crops are still making that final push to full maturity… or who still don’t know where they are going to put all the bushels that this late season development could be creating.
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Another Hurricane Expected to Hit Landfall? Here We Go Again. It is an understatement to say that 2017 has been ‘a significant season for tropical hurricanes’. Hurricanes Harvey with its record 50+ inch rains and devastating flooding in Texas along with Irma ‘s catastrophic 130 mph winds and 10-foot storm surge in Florida have already made 2017 the costliest hurricane season since 2005. Insured losses alone are estimated at topping $120 billion between them… and that doesn’t include the cost to the economy – Planalytics estimates $3 billion in lost consumer retail sales in those states due to Harvey and Irma. Cleanup is expected to continue in the worst hit areas for weeks to come, along with reports of significant crop and livestock losses due to the storms.
Hurricane Nate - 5-Day Forecast (through October 10, 2017)
So with harvesting still continuing in some key areas, the last thing we need is another hurricane. Unfortunately, the recent development of Tropical Storm Nate is likely to counter those wishes. The National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook on Nate (above right) has the system expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow and rapidly make its way toward landfall in the coastal Delta region overnight on Sunday. Its rapid track is expected to keep Nate at a relatively lesser intensity at landfall (Category 1, maybe a weak Category 2). Still with top winds approaching 90mph and 4 to 8 inches of rain possible in the Delta and Mid-South, impacts are likely, particularly for those in the midst of harvest. The news is not all bad, though. The very dry eastern states might welcome interruptions to harvesting as the moisture will be quite beneficial… although perhaps too late for crops like Virginia’s peanuts. A return to much drier conditions will follow Nate’s passage.
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
