Planalytics Ag Insights 2015 0904
Issued: September 4, 2015
Corn Yields are Anybody’s Guess… or are they??? Earlier this week, one of the Web blogs we follow posed the question: "Will big western Corn Belt yields offset losses anticipated in the east?" With so much at stake for farmers, crop insurers, and commodities buyers, crop yield estimates are getting lots of attention this year. The blogger goes on to say that USDA was the first to come out with an average corn yield forecast of 168.8 bu/ac in mid-August, followed by his own company's crop tour estimate of 164.3 bu/ac. He then compared that to one of the marketing advisory firm's estimate of 167.1 bu/ac. Who is correct? Until the grain is finally harvested and USDA issues its final production assessment next February, it is anybody's guess. But one producers' comments on the blog site hit the nail on the head: "It takes 340 corn an acre to make 0 corn average 170.” As you can see below, this year’s corn yield potential is all over the map.
CORN YIELD (BU/AC)
PERIOD 7 August 26, 2015
Since 2002, Planalytics and our partners at TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc. and the University of Kansas have published eight, bi-weekly crop yield estimates for corn, soybeans, wheat and other small grain crops. Our initial summer crop forecasts are published in early-June, two months before the USDA's August WASDE reports. Planalytics’ crop yield projections are generated using a combination of satellite imagery and a statistical model that is based on 26 years’ of USDA's final end-of-year, county-level yield reports. On June 3rd, our initial corn yield estimate, averaged across 41 states and over 1,400 counties, was 164.1 bu/ac. So far, our highest estimate of the season was 167.2 bu/ac released on August 12th. Our seventh period estimate, published on August 26th, was 166.8 bu/ac. Lincoln County, CO had the lowest estimate at 47bu/ac, while Ochiltree County, TX had high honors at 235.3 bu/ac. Planalytics will publish our next round of forecasts on September 9th. To learn more, click here.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Fall Freeze Update as of September 4, 2015 Current 14-day weather models are not indicating any freeze threat east of the Rockies through September 20th. As you can see from the adjacent "Average Freeze Date" graphic, much of the Upper Midwest has normal freeze dates that are within the 16th and 30th of September (darker shades of blue). Most of the major corn and soybean producing areas fall into the October 1-14 "average date” range. The bottom line… the threat of an early freeze in 2015, based on historic averages, is at hand. However, models are not yet signaling an imminent threat. Freeze free through the 20th, although northern Minnesota and Wisconsin may see a threat of frost on the 12th and 13th of September..
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Corn Yields are Anybody’s Guess… or are they??? Earlier this week, one of the Web blogs we follow posed the question: "Will big western Corn Belt yields offset losses anticipated in the east?" With so much at stake for farmers, crop insurers, and commodities buyers, crop yield estimates are getting lots of attention this year. The blogger goes on to say that USDA was the first to come out with an average corn yield forecast of 168.8 bu/ac in mid-August, followed by his own company's crop tour estimate of 164.3 bu/ac. He then compared that to one of the marketing advisory firm's estimate of 167.1 bu/ac. Who is correct? Until the grain is finally harvested and USDA issues its final production assessment next February, it is anybody's guess. But one producers' comments on the blog site hit the nail on the head: "It takes 340 corn an acre to make 0 corn average 170.” As you can see below, this year’s corn yield potential is all over the map.
CORN YIELD (BU/AC)
PERIOD 7 August 26, 2015
Since 2002, Planalytics and our partners at TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc. and the University of Kansas have published eight, bi-weekly crop yield estimates for corn, soybeans, wheat and other small grain crops. Our initial summer crop forecasts are published in early-June, two months before the USDA's August WASDE reports. Planalytics’ crop yield projections are generated using a combination of satellite imagery and a statistical model that is based on 26 years’ of USDA's final end-of-year, county-level yield reports. On June 3rd, our initial corn yield estimate, averaged across 41 states and over 1,400 counties, was 164.1 bu/ac. So far, our highest estimate of the season was 167.2 bu/ac released on August 12th. Our seventh period estimate, published on August 26th, was 166.8 bu/ac. Lincoln County, CO had the lowest estimate at 47bu/ac, while Ochiltree County, TX had high honors at 235.3 bu/ac. Planalytics will publish our next round of forecasts on September 9th. To learn more, click here.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Fall Freeze Update as of September 4, 2015 Current 14-day weather models are not indicating any freeze threat east of the Rockies through September 20th. As you can see from the adjacent "Average Freeze Date" graphic, much of the Upper Midwest has normal freeze dates that are within the 16th and 30th of September (darker shades of blue). Most of the major corn and soybean producing areas fall into the October 1-14 "average date” range. The bottom line… the threat of an early freeze in 2015, based on historic averages, is at hand. However, models are not yet signaling an imminent threat. Freeze free through the 20th, although northern Minnesota and Wisconsin may see a threat of frost on the 12th and 13th of September..
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
