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Best Practices Adapt to Climate Change Related to Water for Smallholder in China Jing Liu Institute of Agricultural Economics & Development Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science [email protected] Santiago, Chile , Nov 29,2017
Rationale • • •
North China face the severe water shortage issue Climate change will affect both water availability and accessibility Need for better understanding of – –
•
Impacts of climate change on rural livelihoods Appropriate adaptation
Need to involve science, policy makers… …and rural communities Evidence suggests climate change is already affecting water availability crop growth and rural livelihoods.
Administrative regions: 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities (not including Hk,Macao and Taiwan) 2861 counties The number of total population is 1.370536875 billion(till 2010.11.1 00:00am including Hk,Macao and Taiwan)
Land Characteristics by Topographic Feature Land Characteristics By Topographic Feature (9,600,000sq.km/100%)
Mountains
10% 12%
33%
Plateaus Basins Plains
19% 26%
Hills
Water Distribution
Agricultural Characteristics in China The percentage of sown area of major corps in 1994 and 20115
Tea garden, 0.72% Orchard, 5.34%
2015
1994
Others, 4.51%
Others, 2.78% Tea garden, Orchard, 1.51% 8.36%
Medicinal herbs, 0.20% Vegetables, 5.65%
Medicinal herbs, 1.08%
Tobacco, 0.94% Sugar, 1.11% Fiber, 0.24%
Tobacco, 0.71%
Cotton, 3.50% Oil, 7.66%
Sugar, 0.94% Grain, 69.42%
Grain, 61.41%
Fiber, 0.04%
Cotton, 2.04%
Data: China National Bureau of Statistics
Vegetables, 11.92%
Oil, 7.60%
Challenge to ensure food security in China • The grain potential production capacity – Reduction arable land from 1995 to 2012 10 million ha arable land lost – Water scarcity – Rising labor cost – Climate Change – Environment protection non-point source pollution International Conference on Policies for Water and Food Security in Dry Areas – 2426 June, Cairo, Egypt
7
Challenge to ensure food security in China • The demand side – Income increase – Population increase annual net population increase 7 million – Migrant worker annual net increase migrant worker 5 million – Annual net increase food consumption 3.5-4 billion Kg International Conference on Policies for Water and Food Security in Dry Areas – 2426 June, Cairo, Egypt
8
Drought and agricultural production 1950～2009 Drought Statistics in China
Year
Disasteraffected areas （1000 hectares）
Crop Disaster failure Grain loss areas areas （100 million （1000 （1000 kg） hectares） hectares）
Difficult to access drinking water （10,000 people）
Livestock difficult to access drinking water
（10,000 heads））
1950-1980 18790.97
6731.26
1981-2009 24805.28
12716.38
2739.55
252.88
2745.76
2139.14
1990-2009 24992.11
13182.10
2755.36
277.85
2745.76
2139.14
1950-2009 21697.89
9624.07
2739.55
161.06
2745.76
2139.14
75.16
Source：Calculated according to 2009 China Flood and Drought Bulletin
The map of Grain yield and irrigation ratio The distribution map of unit yield in Chinese counties in 2008
The irrigation level distribution in Chinese counties in 2008
Data source: 2008 Agricultural Statistics Resources in Chinese Counties (Cities) Cartographic software: ArcGIS 9.3
The map of Grain yield and stable-harvesting ratios The distribution map of unit yield in Chinese counties in 2008
The stable-harvesting level distribution in Chinese counties in 2008
Data source: 2008 Agricultural Statistics Resources in Chinese Counties (Cities) Cartographic software: ArcGIS 9.3
Results 10% lowest grain yield counties 25% lowest grain yield counties Counties with the median grain yield 75% highest grain yield counties 10% highest grain yield counties
Conclusion Firstly, under other input factors unchanged, in all quantile regression models, the contribution coefficients of unit yield by the irrigation ratio and the stable-harvesting ratio are the significant positive at 1%. Secondly, for the lowest unit yield group (10% lowest unit yield group), and 25 % lowest unit yield group, increase labor have the most significant influences on increasing grain unit yield. Thirdly, the contribution ratios to the unit yield made by the stableharvesting ratio are higher than the irrigation ratios.
Policies and actions to Decelerate Climate Change in Ningxia Agricultural Sector • • • • • •
Adjusting cropping systems Development livestock breeding Afforestation and control overgrazing Water-saving irrigation Strengthening the capacity of farmers Comprehensive methods
Farmers coping behavior to climate change •
Need for better understanding of – Impacts of climate change on rural livelihoods – Appropriate adaptation
•
Need to involve science, policy makers… …and rural communities
Evidence suggests climate change is already affecting both crop growth and rural livelihoods.
Survey design • Semi-structured questions – – – – –
Livelihoods context (income, education, land assets...) Perceptions of climate variability Impacts on agricultural productivity/ Water access Adaptive behaviour Government support
• 6 survey villages 20 participants in each – – – –
Three agricultural zones Poverty distribution Existing agricultural data Geographically accessible
Ningxia: location of the survey villages
Impact of factors on family’s agricultural income during the last 10 years County name
Tax Wuzhong
9
Pingluo
9
Tongxin
0
Guyuan
4
Yanchi
2
Longde
2
Cereal Planting Price Area
18 13 7 6 10 12
12
4 6 10 1 5
Disaster
18 20 17 20 18 20
Ability to sell
Price Fert. Price Feed
2
2
3
14
8
3
7
3
9
3
8
1
18 20 16 15 13 16
Other
0
0 0 1 0 0
How seriously are families affected by drought? Figure 6 The effect of the most serious drought on the family situtation
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% no major effect enough food insufficient food no harvest
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Wuzhong
Pingluo
Tongxin
Yanchi
Guyuan
Longde
How are communities adapting to drought?
Diversification – non-farm activities Specialisation – e.g. water melons, wolfberry production, livestock breeding Change crop types – for water saving Rainwater harvesting – water cellar Range of soil moisture conservation methods
0
lo ng de
5
sa ny in g
10
ya nc hi
15 lo ng de
wu zh on g pi ng lu o to ng xi n ya nc hi sa ny in g
Percentage of farmer
plastic film
to ng x in
small stone
pi ng luo
20
Percentage of farmers
n ya nc hi sa ny in g lo ng de
xi
ng
o
lu
ng
to
pi
ng
wu zh o
Percentage of farmers
100 80 60 40 20 0
wu zh on g
lo ng de
sa ny in g
ya nc hi
to ng x in
pi ng luo
wu zh on g
Percentage of farmer
How are farmers adapting to changes in soil moisture?
roller
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Irrigated area in arid climate
Rainfed with arid climate
other measures
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Rainfed with semi-humid
What are the perceived barriers to responses to climate extremes? wuzhong 20
Weather-related disasters
16
longde
12
pingluo
8
lack of money poor infra
4
lack technology
0
water shortage lack farm inputs
sanying
tongxin
yanchi
How do communities perceive the need for policy support? Figure 10 what government programs could help you to adapt to weather-related disasters? 80
70
which types of support could help you?
60
other weather modification migration infrastructure training financial support agricultural inputs soil moisture conservation
50
40
30
20
10
0 Wuzhong
Pingluo
Ttongxin
Yanchi
Guyuan
Longde
Which factors influence capacity to adapt in rural communities? Key factors:
location (especially agricultural zone)
economic development
transportation
education
gender
poverty
age
Conclusion • Climate factors perceived to have very significant impact on agri production & access to water (drought,sandstorms and frost events) • Proximity to urban areas and access to irrigation water are important determinants of wealth and non-farming opportunities for local people • Credit, infrastructure and technology are perceived as the primary barriers to adaptation. • The most important factors influencing agricultural income during the past ten years are disasters, fertilizer price and cereal price • Survey areas with mixed irrigated and rainfed farming appear particularly sensitive to climate variability.
Discussion • How to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture • How to strengthen the capacity adapt to climate change • How to use S&T to response to climate change • How to enhancing Public Awareness and Improving Management
Thanks for listening Questions, comments and suggestions are welcome
Rationale • • •
North China face the severe water shortage issue Climate change will affect both water availability and accessibility Need for better understanding of – –
•
Impacts of climate change on rural livelihoods Appropriate adaptation
Need to involve science, policy makers… …and rural communities Evidence suggests climate change is already affecting water availability crop growth and rural livelihoods.
Administrative regions: 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities (not including Hk,Macao and Taiwan) 2861 counties The number of total population is 1.370536875 billion(till 2010.11.1 00:00am including Hk,Macao and Taiwan)
Land Characteristics by Topographic Feature Land Characteristics By Topographic Feature (9,600,000sq.km/100%)
Mountains
10% 12%
33%
Plateaus Basins Plains
19% 26%
Hills
Water Distribution
Agricultural Characteristics in China The percentage of sown area of major corps in 1994 and 20115
Tea garden, 0.72% Orchard, 5.34%
2015
1994
Others, 4.51%
Others, 2.78% Tea garden, Orchard, 1.51% 8.36%
Medicinal herbs, 0.20% Vegetables, 5.65%
Medicinal herbs, 1.08%
Tobacco, 0.94% Sugar, 1.11% Fiber, 0.24%
Tobacco, 0.71%
Cotton, 3.50% Oil, 7.66%
Sugar, 0.94% Grain, 69.42%
Grain, 61.41%
Fiber, 0.04%
Cotton, 2.04%
Data: China National Bureau of Statistics
Vegetables, 11.92%
Oil, 7.60%
Challenge to ensure food security in China • The grain potential production capacity – Reduction arable land from 1995 to 2012 10 million ha arable land lost – Water scarcity – Rising labor cost – Climate Change – Environment protection non-point source pollution International Conference on Policies for Water and Food Security in Dry Areas – 2426 June, Cairo, Egypt
7
Challenge to ensure food security in China • The demand side – Income increase – Population increase annual net population increase 7 million – Migrant worker annual net increase migrant worker 5 million – Annual net increase food consumption 3.5-4 billion Kg International Conference on Policies for Water and Food Security in Dry Areas – 2426 June, Cairo, Egypt
8
Drought and agricultural production 1950～2009 Drought Statistics in China
Year
Disasteraffected areas （1000 hectares）
Crop Disaster failure Grain loss areas areas （100 million （1000 （1000 kg） hectares） hectares）
Difficult to access drinking water （10,000 people）
Livestock difficult to access drinking water
（10,000 heads））
1950-1980 18790.97
6731.26
1981-2009 24805.28
12716.38
2739.55
252.88
2745.76
2139.14
1990-2009 24992.11
13182.10
2755.36
277.85
2745.76
2139.14
1950-2009 21697.89
9624.07
2739.55
161.06
2745.76
2139.14
75.16
Source：Calculated according to 2009 China Flood and Drought Bulletin
The map of Grain yield and irrigation ratio The distribution map of unit yield in Chinese counties in 2008
The irrigation level distribution in Chinese counties in 2008
Data source: 2008 Agricultural Statistics Resources in Chinese Counties (Cities) Cartographic software: ArcGIS 9.3
The map of Grain yield and stable-harvesting ratios The distribution map of unit yield in Chinese counties in 2008
The stable-harvesting level distribution in Chinese counties in 2008
Data source: 2008 Agricultural Statistics Resources in Chinese Counties (Cities) Cartographic software: ArcGIS 9.3
Results 10% lowest grain yield counties 25% lowest grain yield counties Counties with the median grain yield 75% highest grain yield counties 10% highest grain yield counties
Conclusion Firstly, under other input factors unchanged, in all quantile regression models, the contribution coefficients of unit yield by the irrigation ratio and the stable-harvesting ratio are the significant positive at 1%. Secondly, for the lowest unit yield group (10% lowest unit yield group), and 25 % lowest unit yield group, increase labor have the most significant influences on increasing grain unit yield. Thirdly, the contribution ratios to the unit yield made by the stableharvesting ratio are higher than the irrigation ratios.
Policies and actions to Decelerate Climate Change in Ningxia Agricultural Sector • • • • • •
Adjusting cropping systems Development livestock breeding Afforestation and control overgrazing Water-saving irrigation Strengthening the capacity of farmers Comprehensive methods
Farmers coping behavior to climate change •
Need for better understanding of – Impacts of climate change on rural livelihoods – Appropriate adaptation
•
Need to involve science, policy makers… …and rural communities
Evidence suggests climate change is already affecting both crop growth and rural livelihoods.
Survey design • Semi-structured questions – – – – –
Livelihoods context (income, education, land assets...) Perceptions of climate variability Impacts on agricultural productivity/ Water access Adaptive behaviour Government support
• 6 survey villages 20 participants in each – – – –
Three agricultural zones Poverty distribution Existing agricultural data Geographically accessible
Ningxia: location of the survey villages
Impact of factors on family’s agricultural income during the last 10 years County name
Tax Wuzhong
9
Pingluo
9
Tongxin
0
Guyuan
4
Yanchi
2
Longde
2
Cereal Planting Price Area
18 13 7 6 10 12
12
4 6 10 1 5
Disaster
18 20 17 20 18 20
Ability to sell
Price Fert. Price Feed
2
2
3
14
8
3
7
3
9
3
8
1
18 20 16 15 13 16
Other
0
0 0 1 0 0
How seriously are families affected by drought? Figure 6 The effect of the most serious drought on the family situtation
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% no major effect enough food insufficient food no harvest
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Wuzhong
Pingluo
Tongxin
Yanchi
Guyuan
Longde
How are communities adapting to drought?
Diversification – non-farm activities Specialisation – e.g. water melons, wolfberry production, livestock breeding Change crop types – for water saving Rainwater harvesting – water cellar Range of soil moisture conservation methods
0
lo ng de
5
sa ny in g
10
ya nc hi
15 lo ng de
wu zh on g pi ng lu o to ng xi n ya nc hi sa ny in g
Percentage of farmer
plastic film
to ng x in
small stone
pi ng luo
20
Percentage of farmers
n ya nc hi sa ny in g lo ng de
xi
ng
o
lu
ng
to
pi
ng
wu zh o
Percentage of farmers
100 80 60 40 20 0
wu zh on g
lo ng de
sa ny in g
ya nc hi
to ng x in
pi ng luo
wu zh on g
Percentage of farmer
How are farmers adapting to changes in soil moisture?
roller
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Irrigated area in arid climate
Rainfed with arid climate
other measures
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Rainfed with semi-humid
What are the perceived barriers to responses to climate extremes? wuzhong 20
Weather-related disasters
16
longde
12
pingluo
8
lack of money poor infra
4
lack technology
0
water shortage lack farm inputs
sanying
tongxin
yanchi
How do communities perceive the need for policy support? Figure 10 what government programs could help you to adapt to weather-related disasters? 80
70
which types of support could help you?
60
other weather modification migration infrastructure training financial support agricultural inputs soil moisture conservation
50
40
30
20
10
0 Wuzhong
Pingluo
Ttongxin
Yanchi
Guyuan
Longde
Which factors influence capacity to adapt in rural communities? Key factors:
location (especially agricultural zone)
economic development
transportation
education
gender
poverty
age
Conclusion • Climate factors perceived to have very significant impact on agri production & access to water (drought,sandstorms and frost events) • Proximity to urban areas and access to irrigation water are important determinants of wealth and non-farming opportunities for local people • Credit, infrastructure and technology are perceived as the primary barriers to adaptation. • The most important factors influencing agricultural income during the past ten years are disasters, fertilizer price and cereal price • Survey areas with mixed irrigated and rainfed farming appear particularly sensitive to climate variability.
Discussion • How to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture • How to strengthen the capacity adapt to climate change • How to use S&T to response to climate change • How to enhancing Public Awareness and Improving Management
Thanks for listening Questions, comments and suggestions are welcome
