Prince Edward County Market Snapshot â April to June 2017
Prince Edward County Market Snapshot – April to June 2017 Summary: After a blistering April and May, the chill from the downturn in the Toronto real estate market reached the County in June when most measures showed a pronounced cooling.
Detached Home Sales 100
90 80 70
63 57
60
53 37
40 30 20 10
65
49
50
46
52
53
44
47
24
32
30 21
43
26
20
-
Avg. 2014-16
2017
While April and May continued the hot pace of sales which has characterized the County market for the last 18 months, detached homes sales took an abrupt turn in June with sales down 27% from in May.
Not intended to solicit anyone under Buyer Representation Agreement with another brokerage.
Prince Edward County
Market Snapshot – April to June 2017
2
PEC Detached Homes Sales By Price Segment 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
A. Under $300K
.
2017-6
2017-5
2017-4
2017-3
2017-2
2017-1
2016-12
2016-11
2016-9
2016-10
2016-8
2016-7
2016-6
2016-5
2016-4
2016-3
2016-2
2016-1
2015-12
2015-11
2015-9
2015-10
2015-8
2015-7
0
B. $300K & Greater
Closer analysis shows that the downturn in sales occurred across the board in sales for homes over $300,000 dominated by Toronto buyers as well as sales under $300,000 driven by local demand.
Inventory - End Month 600 500
408 400
392
349
407
377
300 300
235
291
256
240
200 190 100
148
347
215
241
271
169
147
-
Avg 2014-16
2017
The inventory of homes available on the market, while well below the average of the previous three years, showed an expected seasonal increase consistent with the market conditions prevailing since the start of the year. A shortage of inventory does not appear to explain the dramatic sales downturn.
© 2017 Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage May be used with citation.
Prince Edward County
Market Snapshot – April to June 2017
3
Months of Inventory 18 16
16 14
14
13
14
12
12 10
10
10
10
13
12
11
10
8 6 4
6.2
5.9 4.0
2
3.9
3.8
3.8
-
Avg. 2014-16
2017
Months of inventory is a widely-used measure of the balance between supply (number of homes listed at end of month) and demand (sales for the month). While the supply of homes available for sale in June was tight by historical standards, the increase was a step toward more balanced supply and demand.
Homes Selling in A Month or Less 70% 65%
60% 55%
50%
47%
46% 42%
40% 30%
35%
34%
38% 37%
37%
36% 32%
20%
29%
28%
21%
10%
24%
20%
18%
0%
Average 2014-16
2017
The percentage of homes selling in a month or less nearly doubled from May to an all-time high June. Although the number of homes sold was down in June, those that were selling were selling quickly. This was the only indicator that suggested an upturn in the market.
© 2017 Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage May be used with citation.
Prince Edward County
Market Snapshot – April to June 2017
4
Selling to Listing Price 102% 101%
100.1%
100.1%
100% 99% 98%
97.7%
97.7%
97.6%
97.0%
97% 95.5%
96.1%
95% 94%
96.1%
95.6%
96%
95.4%
95.6%
96.1%
95.2%
95.5%
95.8% 95.3%
94.6%
93%
2017
Average 2014-16
The selling-to-listing price ratio is a traditional measure which reflects supply-demand balance. Homes sold, on average, at 100% of listing price in April and May, falling in June to a level consistent with the first quarter of the year.
% Homes Selling For Listing Price or Over 60% 50%
44% 35%
40%
33%
31%
29%
30% 14%
20% 10%
0%
13%
12% 8%
13%
11%
13%
10%
6%
2017
14%
13%
13%
7%
Averge 2014-16
In another indication of a potential market slowdown, the percentage of homes selling for listing price or over fell back in June after reaching an all-time high in May.
© 2017 Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage May be used with citation.
Prince Edward County
Market Snapshot – April to June 2017
5
Average Price - Single Family Detached House July 2015 = 1.00 1.80 1.60
1.40 1.20
1.00 0.80
Toronto
Jul-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
0.60
County
After peaking in April, the average price index in Prince Edward County fell significantly in May and June, paralleling the decline in average house prices in Toronto.
Treat Hull & Associates, Ltd., is a County real estate brokerage with a difference: we don’t take listings and we serve only buyers. Representing both buyer and seller on the same deal is legal in Ontario, but we believe that ‘you can’t serve two masters at the same time’. By representing only buyers, we can provide unbiased advice in your best interests without compromise or qualification. For further information, contact Treat Hull, Broker of Record, Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage at 613-503-0027 or [email protected].
© 2017 Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage May be used with citation.
Detached Home Sales 100
90 80 70
63 57
60
53 37
40 30 20 10
65
49
50
46
52
53
44
47
24
32
30 21
43
26
20
-
Avg. 2014-16
2017
While April and May continued the hot pace of sales which has characterized the County market for the last 18 months, detached homes sales took an abrupt turn in June with sales down 27% from in May.
Not intended to solicit anyone under Buyer Representation Agreement with another brokerage.
Prince Edward County
Market Snapshot – April to June 2017
2
PEC Detached Homes Sales By Price Segment 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
A. Under $300K
.
2017-6
2017-5
2017-4
2017-3
2017-2
2017-1
2016-12
2016-11
2016-9
2016-10
2016-8
2016-7
2016-6
2016-5
2016-4
2016-3
2016-2
2016-1
2015-12
2015-11
2015-9
2015-10
2015-8
2015-7
0
B. $300K & Greater
Closer analysis shows that the downturn in sales occurred across the board in sales for homes over $300,000 dominated by Toronto buyers as well as sales under $300,000 driven by local demand.
Inventory - End Month 600 500
408 400
392
349
407
377
300 300
235
291
256
240
200 190 100
148
347
215
241
271
169
147
-
Avg 2014-16
2017
The inventory of homes available on the market, while well below the average of the previous three years, showed an expected seasonal increase consistent with the market conditions prevailing since the start of the year. A shortage of inventory does not appear to explain the dramatic sales downturn.
© 2017 Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage May be used with citation.
Prince Edward County
Market Snapshot – April to June 2017
3
Months of Inventory 18 16
16 14
14
13
14
12
12 10
10
10
10
13
12
11
10
8 6 4
6.2
5.9 4.0
2
3.9
3.8
3.8
-
Avg. 2014-16
2017
Months of inventory is a widely-used measure of the balance between supply (number of homes listed at end of month) and demand (sales for the month). While the supply of homes available for sale in June was tight by historical standards, the increase was a step toward more balanced supply and demand.
Homes Selling in A Month or Less 70% 65%
60% 55%
50%
47%
46% 42%
40% 30%
35%
34%
38% 37%
37%
36% 32%
20%
29%
28%
21%
10%
24%
20%
18%
0%
Average 2014-16
2017
The percentage of homes selling in a month or less nearly doubled from May to an all-time high June. Although the number of homes sold was down in June, those that were selling were selling quickly. This was the only indicator that suggested an upturn in the market.
© 2017 Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage May be used with citation.
Prince Edward County
Market Snapshot – April to June 2017
4
Selling to Listing Price 102% 101%
100.1%
100.1%
100% 99% 98%
97.7%
97.7%
97.6%
97.0%
97% 95.5%
96.1%
95% 94%
96.1%
95.6%
96%
95.4%
95.6%
96.1%
95.2%
95.5%
95.8% 95.3%
94.6%
93%
2017
Average 2014-16
The selling-to-listing price ratio is a traditional measure which reflects supply-demand balance. Homes sold, on average, at 100% of listing price in April and May, falling in June to a level consistent with the first quarter of the year.
% Homes Selling For Listing Price or Over 60% 50%
44% 35%
40%
33%
31%
29%
30% 14%
20% 10%
0%
13%
12% 8%
13%
11%
13%
10%
6%
2017
14%
13%
13%
7%
Averge 2014-16
In another indication of a potential market slowdown, the percentage of homes selling for listing price or over fell back in June after reaching an all-time high in May.
© 2017 Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage May be used with citation.
Prince Edward County
Market Snapshot – April to June 2017
5
Average Price - Single Family Detached House July 2015 = 1.00 1.80 1.60
1.40 1.20
1.00 0.80
Toronto
Jul-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
0.60
County
After peaking in April, the average price index in Prince Edward County fell significantly in May and June, paralleling the decline in average house prices in Toronto.
Treat Hull & Associates, Ltd., is a County real estate brokerage with a difference: we don’t take listings and we serve only buyers. Representing both buyer and seller on the same deal is legal in Ontario, but we believe that ‘you can’t serve two masters at the same time’. By representing only buyers, we can provide unbiased advice in your best interests without compromise or qualification. For further information, contact Treat Hull, Broker of Record, Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage at 613-503-0027 or [email protected].
© 2017 Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage May be used with citation.
