Slightly below expectation - Outperform
Thoresen Thai Agencies Outperform (17E TP Bt10.20) Close Bt9.25
Earnings Review
Transport & Logistics
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line Slightly below expectation
November 16, 2016
Dry‐bulk business will support earnings in 4Q16E We expect TTA’s earnings to turn back to profit in 4Q16E, owing mainly to dry‐bulk business improvement given the BDI pickup currently. Meanwhile, we believe the performance of PMTA and UMS will continue to improve, which is likely to be a short‐term catalyst for TTA. We thus maintain our “Outperform” rating with the SOTP‐based TP of Bt10.20 (implying 0.85x P/BV, historical average).
Price Performance (%)
Normalized profit in 3Q16 improved strongly QoQ TTA reported net profit of Bt7mn, below our forecast of Bt34mn owing to a lower‐than‐expected gross profit margin (GPM) of 17.5% (vs. our forecast of 19.5%), including a FX loss of Bt41mn and a loss from vessels sold of Bt67mn. Stripping out extra items, TTA delivered normalized profit of Bt115mn, falling by 48% YoY but improving from a normalized loss of Bt46mn in 2Q16. On a yearly basis, earnings declined owing mainly to weakening revenue in all businesses. However, on a quarter‐to‐quarter basis, norm. profit improved significantly owing to a slight increase in revenue, a GPM pickup, higher other income, and lower SG&A expenses.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt) KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
FY17
0.033
0.190
‐130.3%
‐84.2%
TTA.BK/TTA TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,822.45
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
17.00/476.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/14.89
52 week High / Low (Bt)
10.60/6.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
10,177.00
NVDR (%)
2.12
Estimated free float (%)
72.5
Beta
1.21
URL
www.thoresen.com
CGR
n.a.
Anti‐corruption
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst, no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
TC rate improved slightly (+8% QoQ) The dry‐bulk business delivered revenue of Bt811mn (‐42% YoY, +1% QoQ) with the TC rate standing at US$5,473 (‐32% YoY, +8% QoQ), in line with the BDI improvement. Dry bulk’s GPM in 3Q16 stood at ‐2% (vs. 4% in 3Q15 and ‐5% in 2Q16). As of 3Q16, TTA’s fleet stood at 29 vessels. Subsea IRM utilization rate increased to 56% Offshore business delivered revenue of Bt1.8bn (‐47% YoY, +3% QoQ) with the utilization rate for subsea IRM improving to 56% (vs. 80% in 3Q15 and 45% in 2Q16). Offshore business’s GPM also improved to 24% (vs. 22% in 3Q15 and 23% in 2Q16) given lower cable laying revenue (low margin). However, the lower charter rate for AOD’s jack‐up rigs caused shared profit from affiliates to fall by 69% YoY and 34% QoQ to Bt102mn. Better performance of infrastructure business PMTA reported net profit of Bt77mn in 3Q16, +57% YoY and +23% QoQ, owing mainly to GPM improvement (from the decline of raw material costs). Meanwhile, UMS’s performance improved strongly to a net loss of only Bt8mn in 3Q16 (vs. a net loss of Bt60mn in 3Q15 and Bt11mn in 2Q16) owing mainly to cost control. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Bt mn) Net profit (Bt mn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Bt mn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net Gearing (%)
2014 22,341 902 0.69 796 0.61 n.m. 0.03 18.64 2014 15.12 5.08 0.50 0.27 3.76 27.82
2015 21,426 (11,335) (6.22) (256) (0.14) (122.97) 0.00 11.86 2015 n.m. 4.54 0.78 0.00 (1.12) 4.48
2016E 14,842 (27) (0.01) (42) (0.02) (83.46) 0.10 11.75 2016E n.m. 3.92 0.79 1.08 (0.20) (4.37)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2017E 16,932 55 0.03 55 0.03 n.m. 0.10 11.68 2017E 304.93 10.99 0.79 1.08 0.26 58.12
2018E 19,040 473 0.26 473 0.26 754.81 0.13 11.81 2018E 35.67 9.40 0.78 1.40 2.21 56.91
Figure 1: Summary of sum‐of‐the‐parts (SOTP) valuation Company Transport MMT PMTA UMS Holding & Eliminate
TTA’s stake (%) 58.2 67.5 90.1
Valuation Method 0.9x of book value (+0.5SD of historical average) 0.7x of book value (historical average) DCF of Bt23/share (implied PER of 10x) 0.5x of BVS Book value
Total SOTP‐based valuation Source: KT ZMICO Research
Value to TTA (Btmn) (Bt/share) 5,505 3.0 4,346 2.4 1,597 0.9 68 0.0 7,081 3.9
18,596
10.2
Figure 2: TTA’s P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X)
2017E +2.0SD +1.50SD +1.0SD +0.5SD Average ‐0.50SD ‐1.0SD ‐1.5SD ‐2.0SD
1.6 1.4
+2.0 S.D. +1.5 S.D.
1.2
+1.0 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
1.0
Avg.
0.8
-0.5 S.D. -1.0 S.D. -1.5.0 S.D. -2.0 S.D.
0.6 0.4 0.2
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
0.0
P/BV (x) 1.32 1.19 1.06 0.93 0.81 0.68 0.55 0.42 0.30
Implied market price (Bt) 15.4 13.9 12.4 10.9 9.4 7.9 6.4 4.9 3.5
Upside/Downside vs. current market price (%) 68.9 52.5 36.2 19.8 3.4 (13.0) (29.3) (45.7) (62.1)
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: 3Q16 earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit SG&A expenses EBITDA Interest expenses Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt/equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
3Q15 5,792 936 (690) 813 (126) 31 (13) 260 (98) 332 383 221 0.21
2Q16 3,532 542 (552) 352 (146) 92 (10) 16 ‐ 156 (31) (46) (0.02)
3Q16 3,576 626 (493) 497 (121) 132 (2) (41) (68) 102 7 115 0.00
% YoY (38.3) (33.1) (28.4) (38.9) (3.5) 321.3 (82.3) n.m. n.m. (69.2) (98.2) (47.9) (98.2)
% QoQ 1.3 15.5 (10.6) 41.1 (16.8) 42.4 (75.2) n.m. n.m. (34.4) n.m. n.m. n.m.
9M16 10,064 1,239 (1,439) 891 (418) 304 (16) (25) (68) 450 (254) (162) (0.14)
% YoY (38.5) (25.2) (35.1) (13.6) 8.9 97.7 (87.2) (108.3) 49.7 (56.8) (287.6) 34.2 (287.8)
2016E 14,842 1,733 (1,921) 1,280 (549) 338 (32) 16 ‐ 635 (27) (42) (0.01)
16.2 14.0 6.6 2.4 2.0 0.4 18.5 4.7
15.4 10.0 (0.9) 1.3 (0.1) 0.6 11.8 (0.6)
17.5 13.9 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.6 11.5 0.1
12.3 8.8 (2.5) 1.4 (0.5) 0.6 11.5 (1.6)
11.7 8.6 (0.2) 1.6 (0.3) 0.4 11.8 (0.1)
YTD % of 16E 67.8 71.5 74.9 69.6 76.2 90.0 48.9 (158.8) ‐ 70.7 952.8 382.1 952.8
Source: TTA, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, TFD, SUTHA, CI.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
Earnings Review
Transport & Logistics
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line Slightly below expectation
November 16, 2016
Dry‐bulk business will support earnings in 4Q16E We expect TTA’s earnings to turn back to profit in 4Q16E, owing mainly to dry‐bulk business improvement given the BDI pickup currently. Meanwhile, we believe the performance of PMTA and UMS will continue to improve, which is likely to be a short‐term catalyst for TTA. We thus maintain our “Outperform” rating with the SOTP‐based TP of Bt10.20 (implying 0.85x P/BV, historical average).
Price Performance (%)
Normalized profit in 3Q16 improved strongly QoQ TTA reported net profit of Bt7mn, below our forecast of Bt34mn owing to a lower‐than‐expected gross profit margin (GPM) of 17.5% (vs. our forecast of 19.5%), including a FX loss of Bt41mn and a loss from vessels sold of Bt67mn. Stripping out extra items, TTA delivered normalized profit of Bt115mn, falling by 48% YoY but improving from a normalized loss of Bt46mn in 2Q16. On a yearly basis, earnings declined owing mainly to weakening revenue in all businesses. However, on a quarter‐to‐quarter basis, norm. profit improved significantly owing to a slight increase in revenue, a GPM pickup, higher other income, and lower SG&A expenses.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt) KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
FY17
0.033
0.190
‐130.3%
‐84.2%
TTA.BK/TTA TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,822.45
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
17.00/476.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/14.89
52 week High / Low (Bt)
10.60/6.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
10,177.00
NVDR (%)
2.12
Estimated free float (%)
72.5
Beta
1.21
URL
www.thoresen.com
CGR
n.a.
Anti‐corruption
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst, no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
TC rate improved slightly (+8% QoQ) The dry‐bulk business delivered revenue of Bt811mn (‐42% YoY, +1% QoQ) with the TC rate standing at US$5,473 (‐32% YoY, +8% QoQ), in line with the BDI improvement. Dry bulk’s GPM in 3Q16 stood at ‐2% (vs. 4% in 3Q15 and ‐5% in 2Q16). As of 3Q16, TTA’s fleet stood at 29 vessels. Subsea IRM utilization rate increased to 56% Offshore business delivered revenue of Bt1.8bn (‐47% YoY, +3% QoQ) with the utilization rate for subsea IRM improving to 56% (vs. 80% in 3Q15 and 45% in 2Q16). Offshore business’s GPM also improved to 24% (vs. 22% in 3Q15 and 23% in 2Q16) given lower cable laying revenue (low margin). However, the lower charter rate for AOD’s jack‐up rigs caused shared profit from affiliates to fall by 69% YoY and 34% QoQ to Bt102mn. Better performance of infrastructure business PMTA reported net profit of Bt77mn in 3Q16, +57% YoY and +23% QoQ, owing mainly to GPM improvement (from the decline of raw material costs). Meanwhile, UMS’s performance improved strongly to a net loss of only Bt8mn in 3Q16 (vs. a net loss of Bt60mn in 3Q15 and Bt11mn in 2Q16) owing mainly to cost control. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Bt mn) Net profit (Bt mn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Bt mn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net Gearing (%)
2014 22,341 902 0.69 796 0.61 n.m. 0.03 18.64 2014 15.12 5.08 0.50 0.27 3.76 27.82
2015 21,426 (11,335) (6.22) (256) (0.14) (122.97) 0.00 11.86 2015 n.m. 4.54 0.78 0.00 (1.12) 4.48
2016E 14,842 (27) (0.01) (42) (0.02) (83.46) 0.10 11.75 2016E n.m. 3.92 0.79 1.08 (0.20) (4.37)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2017E 16,932 55 0.03 55 0.03 n.m. 0.10 11.68 2017E 304.93 10.99 0.79 1.08 0.26 58.12
2018E 19,040 473 0.26 473 0.26 754.81 0.13 11.81 2018E 35.67 9.40 0.78 1.40 2.21 56.91
Figure 1: Summary of sum‐of‐the‐parts (SOTP) valuation Company Transport MMT PMTA UMS Holding & Eliminate
TTA’s stake (%) 58.2 67.5 90.1
Valuation Method 0.9x of book value (+0.5SD of historical average) 0.7x of book value (historical average) DCF of Bt23/share (implied PER of 10x) 0.5x of BVS Book value
Total SOTP‐based valuation Source: KT ZMICO Research
Value to TTA (Btmn) (Bt/share) 5,505 3.0 4,346 2.4 1,597 0.9 68 0.0 7,081 3.9
18,596
10.2
Figure 2: TTA’s P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X)
2017E +2.0SD +1.50SD +1.0SD +0.5SD Average ‐0.50SD ‐1.0SD ‐1.5SD ‐2.0SD
1.6 1.4
+2.0 S.D. +1.5 S.D.
1.2
+1.0 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
1.0
Avg.
0.8
-0.5 S.D. -1.0 S.D. -1.5.0 S.D. -2.0 S.D.
0.6 0.4 0.2
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
0.0
P/BV (x) 1.32 1.19 1.06 0.93 0.81 0.68 0.55 0.42 0.30
Implied market price (Bt) 15.4 13.9 12.4 10.9 9.4 7.9 6.4 4.9 3.5
Upside/Downside vs. current market price (%) 68.9 52.5 36.2 19.8 3.4 (13.0) (29.3) (45.7) (62.1)
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: 3Q16 earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit SG&A expenses EBITDA Interest expenses Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt/equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
3Q15 5,792 936 (690) 813 (126) 31 (13) 260 (98) 332 383 221 0.21
2Q16 3,532 542 (552) 352 (146) 92 (10) 16 ‐ 156 (31) (46) (0.02)
3Q16 3,576 626 (493) 497 (121) 132 (2) (41) (68) 102 7 115 0.00
% YoY (38.3) (33.1) (28.4) (38.9) (3.5) 321.3 (82.3) n.m. n.m. (69.2) (98.2) (47.9) (98.2)
% QoQ 1.3 15.5 (10.6) 41.1 (16.8) 42.4 (75.2) n.m. n.m. (34.4) n.m. n.m. n.m.
9M16 10,064 1,239 (1,439) 891 (418) 304 (16) (25) (68) 450 (254) (162) (0.14)
% YoY (38.5) (25.2) (35.1) (13.6) 8.9 97.7 (87.2) (108.3) 49.7 (56.8) (287.6) 34.2 (287.8)
2016E 14,842 1,733 (1,921) 1,280 (549) 338 (32) 16 ‐ 635 (27) (42) (0.01)
16.2 14.0 6.6 2.4 2.0 0.4 18.5 4.7
15.4 10.0 (0.9) 1.3 (0.1) 0.6 11.8 (0.6)
17.5 13.9 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.6 11.5 0.1
12.3 8.8 (2.5) 1.4 (0.5) 0.6 11.5 (1.6)
11.7 8.6 (0.2) 1.6 (0.3) 0.4 11.8 (0.1)
YTD % of 16E 67.8 71.5 74.9 69.6 76.2 90.0 48.9 (158.8) ‐ 70.7 952.8 382.1 952.8
Source: TTA, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, TFD, SUTHA, CI.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
