Srisawad Power 1979 AWS
Srisawad Power 1979 Earnings Review
Buy (16E TP Bt52.00) Close Bt44.00
Financial
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
February 25, 2016
Strong quarter; L‐T growth continues to outshine financial peers Remaining among the top growth stocks in the financial sector Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.774
2.356
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐5.9%
‐8.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SAWAD.BK/SAWAD TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,020.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
45.00/1,257.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/20.34
52 week High / Low (Bt)
50.00/33.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
4,039.00 3.15
Estimated free float (%)
43.34
Beta
1.04
URL
www.meebaanmeerod.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 1 (Committed)
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
We maintain our Buy rating for SAWAD. We reaffirm our view that SAWAD should remain among the top growth stocks in the financial sector with outperforming earnings growth and ROE vs. financial peers over the next three years. 4Q15 net profit slightly ahead of our forecast and the street estimate SAWAD’s 4Q15 net profit of Bt397mn was slightly higher than our forecast (Bt373mn) and the street estimate (Bt364mn). The stronger‐ than‐expected results were due mainly to higher‐than‐expected fee income and bad debt recoveries. 4Q15 net profit stood at Bt397mn (+49% YoY, +7% QoQ) The impressive results were backed mainly by robust loan growth of 48% YoY and 10% QoQ and non‐interest income growth of 40% YoY and 15% QoQ, thanks to its aggressive branch expansion to 1,627 branches at end‐ 15 vs. 1,059 branches in 2014, with 181 and 568 new branches opened in 4Q15 and 2015, respectively. Meanwhile, the 2015 net profit stood at Bt1.3bn with robust growth of 56% YoY. Asset quality remains manageable Its asset quality remains manageable with the NPL ratio for 4Q15 declining to 3.5% of loans vs. 4.1% in 4Q14 and 3.6% in 3Q15 following its more stringent measures in lending, collection and the NPL control processes since late 2014. This should also be due partly to SAWAD’s policy to normally do bad loan write‐offs every 2Q and 4Q. Purchased new NPLs in 4Q15 SAWAD purchased new NPLs with a total face value of ~Bt2bn and a cost of ~Bt1.06bn in 4Q15 from SME Bank and one Thai commercial bank after purchasing one lot (with a cost of ~Bt202mn) in 2Q15. Note that SAWAD has raised its target for NPL purchases again to ~Bt2.0‐ 3.0bn/year for 2016‐17E, up from the original target of ~Bt1.5‐2bn/year and ~Bt1.0bn/year set earlier. Announced stock dividend at 40:1 and cash dividend of 0.003/share SAWAD announced a cash dividend of 0.003/share and a stock dividend at the ratio of 40 existing shares: 1 stock dividend (equal to a dividend of 0.025/share). The X‐dividend date and payment date will be on 28 Apr‐ 16 and 19 May‐16, respectively. The additional shares (25.5mn shares) from the stock dividend allocation cause a dilution effect of just 2.5%. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
PPOP (Btm)
1,043
1,504
1,946
2,566
3,234
Net profit (Btmn)
855
1,336
1,702
2,194
2,759
EPS (Bt)
0.85
1.31
1.67
2.15
2.71
EPS growth (%)
11%
53%
27%
29%
26%
BV (Bt)
3.43
4.67
5.74
7.14
8.88
Dividend (Bt)
0.02
0.03
0.75
0.97
1.22
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
PER (x)
51.48
33.59
26.37
20.45
16.26
PBV (x)
12.82
9.42
7.67
6.16
4.96
0.05
0.07
1.71
2.20
2.77
37%
33%
32%
33%
34%
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 4Q15 Earnings Results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec.
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
% YoY
Interest Income
553
749
805
46%
Interest Expenses
49
76
76
56%
Net Interest Income
504
673
729
45%
Non Interest Income
200
244
280
40%
Operating Income
704
917
1,009
43%
Operating Expenses
346
435
485
Operating Profit Provision expenses (Reversal)
358
482
524
24
22
Taxes
67
91
Net Profit
267
370
PPOP
291
EPS (Bt)
0.27
% QoQ
2014
2015
% YoY
7% 1,955
2,814
44%
0% 219
281
28%
8% 1,736
2,534
46%
15% 735
963
31%
10% 2,471
3,496
41%
40%
11% 1,220
1,678
37%
46%
9% 1,251
1,818
45%
48
103%
125% 189
168
‐11%
79
17%
‐13% 207
314
52%
397
49%
7% 855
1,336
56%
391
446
53%
14% 1,043
1,504
44%
0.36
0.39
46%
7% 0.85
1.31
53%
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
2014
2015
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
323
380
406
323
406
Gross NPLs/Loans
4.1%
3.6%
3.5%
4.1%
3.5%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
84.6%
87.8%
87.5%
84.6%
87.5%
Loan Loss Reserve/Loans
3.5%
3.2%
3.1%
3.5%
3.1%
39.9%
35.3%
34.9%
39.9%
34.9%
Key Statistics and Ratios (%)
Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio
164.1%
Debt to equity ratio (x)
1.5
Cost to Income
138.1% 1.8
49.2%
158.2%
164.1%
1.9
47.4%
1.5
48.1%
49.4%
158.2% 1.9 48.0%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
28.4%
26.6%
27.8%
29.7%
27.5%
Interest Spread
25.3%
25.1%
25.1%
24.2%
24.4%
Net Interest Margin
26.9%
25.1%
24.0%
25.5%
24.4%
Loan Growth YoY
36.6%
48.4%
48.0%
36.6%
48.0%
Loan Growth QoQ Source: KTZMICO Research
10.1%
7.2%
9.8%
10.1%
9.8%
Figure 2: SAWAD's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
p Downside to current price
Jan-16
Feb-16
Oct-15
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
May-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
(Bt)
Dec-14
Sep-14
2016E
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
May-14
12.0 +2.5 S.D. 11.0 +2.0 S.D. 10.0 +1.5 S.D. +1.0 S.D. 9.0 +0.5 S.D. 8.0 Avg. 7.0 -0.5 S.D. 6.0 -1 S.D. 5.0 -1.5 S.D. 4.0 -2.0 S.D. 3.0 2.0
Implied PBV (x) market price
(%)
+2.0SD
10.5
60
37
+1.5SD
9.7
55
26
+1.0SD
8.9
51
15
+0.5SD
8.0
46
5
Average
7.2
41
-6
-0.5SD
6.4
37
-17
-1.0SD
5.6
32
-27
-1.5SD
4.7
27
-38
-2.0SD
3.9
23
-49
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: SAWAD's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 50
Implied PER (x) market price
Downside to current price
45
+3.0 S.D.
(Bt)
(%)
40
+2.0 S.D.
+2.0SD
36.7
61
39
+1.0S.D.
+1.5SD
34.2
57
30
30
Avg.
+1.0SD
31.7
53
20
25
-0.5 S.D.
+0.5SD
29.2
49
11
Average
26.6
44
1
15
-0.5SD
24.1
40
-9
10
-1.0SD
21.6
36
-18
-1.5SD
19.1
32
-28
-2.0SD
16.6
28
-37
Jan-16
Feb-16
Oct-15
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
May-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
-1 .5 S.D. -2 S.D.
Aug-14
-1 S.D.
Jun-14
20
May-14
35
2016E
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Buy (16E TP Bt52.00) Close Bt44.00
Financial
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
February 25, 2016
Strong quarter; L‐T growth continues to outshine financial peers Remaining among the top growth stocks in the financial sector Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.774
2.356
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐5.9%
‐8.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SAWAD.BK/SAWAD TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,020.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
45.00/1,257.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/20.34
52 week High / Low (Bt)
50.00/33.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
4,039.00 3.15
Estimated free float (%)
43.34
Beta
1.04
URL
www.meebaanmeerod.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 1 (Committed)
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
We maintain our Buy rating for SAWAD. We reaffirm our view that SAWAD should remain among the top growth stocks in the financial sector with outperforming earnings growth and ROE vs. financial peers over the next three years. 4Q15 net profit slightly ahead of our forecast and the street estimate SAWAD’s 4Q15 net profit of Bt397mn was slightly higher than our forecast (Bt373mn) and the street estimate (Bt364mn). The stronger‐ than‐expected results were due mainly to higher‐than‐expected fee income and bad debt recoveries. 4Q15 net profit stood at Bt397mn (+49% YoY, +7% QoQ) The impressive results were backed mainly by robust loan growth of 48% YoY and 10% QoQ and non‐interest income growth of 40% YoY and 15% QoQ, thanks to its aggressive branch expansion to 1,627 branches at end‐ 15 vs. 1,059 branches in 2014, with 181 and 568 new branches opened in 4Q15 and 2015, respectively. Meanwhile, the 2015 net profit stood at Bt1.3bn with robust growth of 56% YoY. Asset quality remains manageable Its asset quality remains manageable with the NPL ratio for 4Q15 declining to 3.5% of loans vs. 4.1% in 4Q14 and 3.6% in 3Q15 following its more stringent measures in lending, collection and the NPL control processes since late 2014. This should also be due partly to SAWAD’s policy to normally do bad loan write‐offs every 2Q and 4Q. Purchased new NPLs in 4Q15 SAWAD purchased new NPLs with a total face value of ~Bt2bn and a cost of ~Bt1.06bn in 4Q15 from SME Bank and one Thai commercial bank after purchasing one lot (with a cost of ~Bt202mn) in 2Q15. Note that SAWAD has raised its target for NPL purchases again to ~Bt2.0‐ 3.0bn/year for 2016‐17E, up from the original target of ~Bt1.5‐2bn/year and ~Bt1.0bn/year set earlier. Announced stock dividend at 40:1 and cash dividend of 0.003/share SAWAD announced a cash dividend of 0.003/share and a stock dividend at the ratio of 40 existing shares: 1 stock dividend (equal to a dividend of 0.025/share). The X‐dividend date and payment date will be on 28 Apr‐ 16 and 19 May‐16, respectively. The additional shares (25.5mn shares) from the stock dividend allocation cause a dilution effect of just 2.5%. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
PPOP (Btm)
1,043
1,504
1,946
2,566
3,234
Net profit (Btmn)
855
1,336
1,702
2,194
2,759
EPS (Bt)
0.85
1.31
1.67
2.15
2.71
EPS growth (%)
11%
53%
27%
29%
26%
BV (Bt)
3.43
4.67
5.74
7.14
8.88
Dividend (Bt)
0.02
0.03
0.75
0.97
1.22
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
PER (x)
51.48
33.59
26.37
20.45
16.26
PBV (x)
12.82
9.42
7.67
6.16
4.96
0.05
0.07
1.71
2.20
2.77
37%
33%
32%
33%
34%
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 4Q15 Earnings Results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec.
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
% YoY
Interest Income
553
749
805
46%
Interest Expenses
49
76
76
56%
Net Interest Income
504
673
729
45%
Non Interest Income
200
244
280
40%
Operating Income
704
917
1,009
43%
Operating Expenses
346
435
485
Operating Profit Provision expenses (Reversal)
358
482
524
24
22
Taxes
67
91
Net Profit
267
370
PPOP
291
EPS (Bt)
0.27
% QoQ
2014
2015
% YoY
7% 1,955
2,814
44%
0% 219
281
28%
8% 1,736
2,534
46%
15% 735
963
31%
10% 2,471
3,496
41%
40%
11% 1,220
1,678
37%
46%
9% 1,251
1,818
45%
48
103%
125% 189
168
‐11%
79
17%
‐13% 207
314
52%
397
49%
7% 855
1,336
56%
391
446
53%
14% 1,043
1,504
44%
0.36
0.39
46%
7% 0.85
1.31
53%
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
2014
2015
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
323
380
406
323
406
Gross NPLs/Loans
4.1%
3.6%
3.5%
4.1%
3.5%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
84.6%
87.8%
87.5%
84.6%
87.5%
Loan Loss Reserve/Loans
3.5%
3.2%
3.1%
3.5%
3.1%
39.9%
35.3%
34.9%
39.9%
34.9%
Key Statistics and Ratios (%)
Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio
164.1%
Debt to equity ratio (x)
1.5
Cost to Income
138.1% 1.8
49.2%
158.2%
164.1%
1.9
47.4%
1.5
48.1%
49.4%
158.2% 1.9 48.0%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
28.4%
26.6%
27.8%
29.7%
27.5%
Interest Spread
25.3%
25.1%
25.1%
24.2%
24.4%
Net Interest Margin
26.9%
25.1%
24.0%
25.5%
24.4%
Loan Growth YoY
36.6%
48.4%
48.0%
36.6%
48.0%
Loan Growth QoQ Source: KTZMICO Research
10.1%
7.2%
9.8%
10.1%
9.8%
Figure 2: SAWAD's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
p Downside to current price
Jan-16
Feb-16
Oct-15
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
May-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
(Bt)
Dec-14
Sep-14
2016E
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
May-14
12.0 +2.5 S.D. 11.0 +2.0 S.D. 10.0 +1.5 S.D. +1.0 S.D. 9.0 +0.5 S.D. 8.0 Avg. 7.0 -0.5 S.D. 6.0 -1 S.D. 5.0 -1.5 S.D. 4.0 -2.0 S.D. 3.0 2.0
Implied PBV (x) market price
(%)
+2.0SD
10.5
60
37
+1.5SD
9.7
55
26
+1.0SD
8.9
51
15
+0.5SD
8.0
46
5
Average
7.2
41
-6
-0.5SD
6.4
37
-17
-1.0SD
5.6
32
-27
-1.5SD
4.7
27
-38
-2.0SD
3.9
23
-49
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: SAWAD's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 50
Implied PER (x) market price
Downside to current price
45
+3.0 S.D.
(Bt)
(%)
40
+2.0 S.D.
+2.0SD
36.7
61
39
+1.0S.D.
+1.5SD
34.2
57
30
30
Avg.
+1.0SD
31.7
53
20
25
-0.5 S.D.
+0.5SD
29.2
49
11
Average
26.6
44
1
15
-0.5SD
24.1
40
-9
10
-1.0SD
21.6
36
-18
-1.5SD
19.1
32
-28
-2.0SD
16.6
28
-37
Jan-16
Feb-16
Oct-15
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
May-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
-1 .5 S.D. -2 S.D.
Aug-14
-1 S.D.
Jun-14
20
May-14
35
2016E
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
