Srisawad Power 1979
Srisawad Power 1979 Under Review (15E TP Bt35.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt38.25
Financial February 27, 2015
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
Strong results indicate continued solid growth
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.080
1.429
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐1.9%
‐6.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SAWAD.BK/SAWAD TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,000.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
38.00/1,177.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/12.96
52 week High / Low (Bt)
39.50/10.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
34,205.00 1.13
Estimated free float (%)
29.52
Beta
1.43
URL
www.meebaanmeerod.com
CGR
‐
Potential earnings catalysts from new businesses We put our Buy rating and the 15E target price of Bt35/share under review for possible upgrades. We see potential for better earnings prospects, both from current and new businesses. Moreover, the M&A theme could remain a catalyst to its share price and L‐T profitability. 4Q14 net profit ahead of our forecast by 14% SAWAD’s 4Q14 net profit (NP) of Bt267mn (101% YoY, +19% QoQ) was 14% ahead of our forecast of Bt234mn mainly due to the‐stronger‐than expected loan growth and net interest margin (NIM) as well as the lower‐ than‐expected provision. Meanwhile, core profit (PPOP) was 2% higher than our forecast. The robust results were backed mainly by its 1) robust loan growth of 37% YoY and 10% QoQ and non‐interest income growth of 36% YoY and 7% QoQ, thanks to its aggressive branch expansion; and 2) strong NIM improvement by 305 bps YoY and 56 bps QoQ to 26.9% in 4Q14 on much lower funding costs, especially after the IPO in 2Q14. 2014 net profit grew robustly by 49% SAWAD reported 2014 net profit of Bt855mn (+49% YoY), ahead of our forecast by 4%, while PPOP grew 48% YoY. The solid NP and PPOP growth was backed mainly by 1) strong NIM enhancement to 25.5% (+150 bps YoY); 2) robust loan growth of 37% YoY (ahead of our forecast of 30%); and 3) solid 50% growth in non‐interest income. This should be thanks mainly to the aggressive branch expansion to 1,059 branches at end‐ 2014 with 457 new branches in 2014 vs. 254 new branches in 2013. Balance sheet improving The NPL ratio in 4Q14 declined QoQ to 4.1% from 4.7% in 3Q14 in line with the firm’s estimate of ~4‐5%, but it was up slightly YoY from 3.7% in 4Q13. The reserve‐to‐NPL ratio at end‐14 was quite stable YoY at 85%. Meanwhile, its debt‐to‐equity ratio declined to just 1.5x in 2014 from 4.3x in 2013. See potential earnings upgrade We see potential upside from our current NP estimates on its new businesses that we currently do not include in our projections (e.g., debt collection and distressed asset management business, insurance broker and nano‐finance). We will revisit our earnings estimates after the meeting next month. Note that SAWAD announced a cash dividend of 0.003/share, a stock dividend at the ratio of 50 existing shares: 1 stock dividend and allocated warrants at the ratio of 25 existing shares: 1 warrant for free with an exercise price of Bt60/share. The XA date for these rights will be on 29 Apr‐15. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
PPOP (Btm)
401
707
1,043
1,323
1,672
Net profit (Btm)
405
575
855
1,058
1,336
EPS (Bt)
1.14
0.77
0.85
1.06
1.34
EPS growth (%)
270%
‐33%
11%
24%
26%
Book value (Bt)
1.72
1.51
3.43
3.87
4.68
Dividend (Bt)
0.90
0.60
0.02
0.53
0.67
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
PER (X)
33.62
49.85
44.75
36.15
28.63
PBV (X)
22.28
25.37
11.14
9.87
8.17
Dividend yield (%)
2.35
1.57
0.06
1.38
1.75
ROE (%)
76%
66%
37%
30%
31%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 2014 earnings results
Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec. Interest Income
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14
% YoY
388
511
553
42%
% QoQ
2013
2014
% YoY
8% 1,446
1,955
35%
Interest Expenses
56
48
49
‐12%
2% 230
219
‐5%
Net Interest Income
332
463
504
52%
9% 1,216
1,736
43%
Non Interest Income
147
186
200
36%
7% 491
735
50%
Operating Income
479
649
704
47%
9% 1,707
2,471
45%
Operating Expenses
254
323
346
36%
7% 849
1,220
44%
Operating Profit Provision expenses (Reversal)
225
326
358
59%
10% 858
1,251
46%
52
45
24
‐54%
‐47% 132
189
43%
Taxes
40
57
67
66%
18% 151
207
37%
Net Profit
133
224
267
101%
19% 575
855
49%
PPOP
185
269
291
58%
8% 707
1,043
48%
EPS (Bt)
1.77
2.24
2.67
51%
19% 7.67
8.55
11%
Key Statistics and Ratios (%) Gross NPLs (Btmn)
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14
2013
2014
211
336
323
211
323
Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Loan Loss Reserve/Loans Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio
3.7%
4.7%
4.1%
3.7%
4.1%
86.5%
86.2%
84.6%
86.5%
84.6%
3.2%
4.1%
3.5%
3.2%
3.5%
18.7%
41.5%
39.9%
18.7%
39.9%
122.7%
171.5%
164.1%
122.7%
4.3
1.4
1.5
4.3
1.5
Cost to Income
53.1%
49.8%
49.2%
49.7%
49.4%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
30.6%
28.7%
28.4%
28.8%
29.7%
Debt to equity ratio (x)
164.1%
Net Interest Margin
23.8%
26.3%
26.9%
24.0%
25.5%
Loan Growth YoY Loan Growth QoQ
43.2% 6.2%
31.8% 9.0%
36.6% 10.1%
43.7% 6.2%
36.6% 10.1%
Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: Financial and valuation summary vs. peers Name
Net Profit (Btmn) 13A
NP Growth(%) EPS Growth (%)
PER (X)
P/BV (X)
PEG (X) 14E
PBV/ROE(%) Div.Yield(%)
ROE (%)
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E 14E
2,501 2,487 1,283 1,755 641 671 754 704 429 196 5,608 5,813
2,938 2,094 777 824 302 6,933
‐1 37 5 ‐7 ‐54 4
18 19 16 17 54 19
‐1 37 5 ‐7 ‐55 ‐4
19 19 25 17 71 30
10.7 13.2 12.0 18.7 28.2 16.6
9.0 11.1 9.6 16.0 16.5 12.5
2.4 3.1 n.a. 3.4 n.a. 3.0
2.1 ‐12.58 0.48 2.7 0.36 0.57 1.9 2.54 0.38 3.1 ‐2.71 0.97 1.3 ‐0.52 0.23 2.2 ‐2.58 0.53
0.10 0.12 n.a. 0.17 n.a. 0.13
0.08 0.10 0.09 0.15 0.18 0.12
3.4 3.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.2
3.9 3.6 7.0 3.7 2.4 4.1
25.7 26.0 n.a. 19.8 n.a. 23.8
25.8 26.0 19.7 20.9 7.3 19.9
Srisawad Power 1979** 575 855 Group Lease ** 240 115 IFS Capital Thailand ** 125 138 Krungthai Car Rent & Lease ** 273 214 Singer Thailand 321 293 32 48 Lease It ** Muang Thai Leasing** 351 544 Small companies 1,918 2,207
1,058 404 155 263 342 65 838 3,125
49 ‐52 10 ‐22 ‐9 49 55 15
24 250 12 23 17 37 54 42
11 ‐56 7 ‐22 4 ‐10 15 ‐7
24 164 14 24 14 27 54 46
44.8 80.0 15.0 13.1 11.1 16.2 75.6 36.5
36.2 11.1 30.3 n.a. 13.2 n.a. 10.6 n.a. 9.7 2.3 12.8 2.3 49.1 8.1 23.1 6.0
9.9 3.0 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.2 7.3 4.0
3.93 ‐1.43 2.03 ‐0.59 2.80 ‐1.57 5.03 1.5
0.30 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.10 0.13 0.52 0.26
0.33 0.23 0.13 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.47 0.21
0.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.6 n.a. 0.7 1.4
1.4 2.0 3.9 5.5 3.6 4.7 1.0 3.2
37.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 22.0 17.2 15.5 23.0
30.1 13.1 14.5 14.8 20.1 17.5 15.6 18.0
Sector average 7,526 8,020 10,059 Source: KTZMICO Research, Bloomberg * Fiscal year ended March ** Actual figures
7
25
‐6
38
26.6
17.8
3.1
‐0.56 0.64
0.20 0.17
2.3
3.6 23.4 18.9
Aeon Thana Sinsap Thailand* KrungThai Card** Asia Sermkij Leasing ** Ratchthani Leasing ** Thitikorn ** Large companies
4.5
1.52 0.19 0.96 0.45 0.71 0.47 0.91 0.74
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
15E
Figure 3: SAWAD's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
2015E
PBV (x)
10.0 +2.5 S.D. 9.0 +2 S.D.
+3.5SD
11.0
8.0 +1 S.D.
+1.5 S.D.
+3.0SD
10.3
40
4
7.0
+0.5 S.D.
+2.5SD
9.6
37
-3
6.0
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
+2.0SD
8.9
35
-10
+1.5SD
8.2
32
-17
+1.0SD
7.5
29
-24
11.0 +3.5 S.D. +3 S.D.
Avg.
5.0
-1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
4.0 3.0 2.0
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
Jun-14
May-14
1.0
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Implied market price
Upside/ Downside to current price
(Bt)
(%)
43
11
+0.5SD
6.8
27
-31
Average
6.2
24
-38
-0.5SD
5.5
21
-45
-1.0SD
4.8
18
-52
-1.5SD
4.1
16
-59
-2.0SD
3.4
13
-66
Figure 4: SAWAD's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X)
2015E
PER (x)
+3.0SD
38.5
+2.5SD
36.1
38
0
+2.0SD
33.7
36
-7
+1.5SD
31.4
33
-13
+1.0SD
29.0
31
-20
+0.5SD
26.6
28
-26
Average
24.2
26
-33
10
-0.5SD
21.8
23
-40
5
-1.0SD
19.4
21
-46
-1.5SD
17.1
18
-53
-2.0SD
14.7
16
-59
45
+3.0 S.D. +2.5 S.D. +2 S.D. +1 .5S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg.
40 35 30
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
25 20
-1 .5 S.D. -2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Jun-14
15
Implied market price
Upside/ Downside to current price
(Bt)
(%)
41
7
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Earnings Review
Close Bt38.25
Financial February 27, 2015
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
Strong results indicate continued solid growth
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.080
1.429
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐1.9%
‐6.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SAWAD.BK/SAWAD TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,000.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
38.00/1,177.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/12.96
52 week High / Low (Bt)
39.50/10.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
34,205.00 1.13
Estimated free float (%)
29.52
Beta
1.43
URL
www.meebaanmeerod.com
CGR
‐
Potential earnings catalysts from new businesses We put our Buy rating and the 15E target price of Bt35/share under review for possible upgrades. We see potential for better earnings prospects, both from current and new businesses. Moreover, the M&A theme could remain a catalyst to its share price and L‐T profitability. 4Q14 net profit ahead of our forecast by 14% SAWAD’s 4Q14 net profit (NP) of Bt267mn (101% YoY, +19% QoQ) was 14% ahead of our forecast of Bt234mn mainly due to the‐stronger‐than expected loan growth and net interest margin (NIM) as well as the lower‐ than‐expected provision. Meanwhile, core profit (PPOP) was 2% higher than our forecast. The robust results were backed mainly by its 1) robust loan growth of 37% YoY and 10% QoQ and non‐interest income growth of 36% YoY and 7% QoQ, thanks to its aggressive branch expansion; and 2) strong NIM improvement by 305 bps YoY and 56 bps QoQ to 26.9% in 4Q14 on much lower funding costs, especially after the IPO in 2Q14. 2014 net profit grew robustly by 49% SAWAD reported 2014 net profit of Bt855mn (+49% YoY), ahead of our forecast by 4%, while PPOP grew 48% YoY. The solid NP and PPOP growth was backed mainly by 1) strong NIM enhancement to 25.5% (+150 bps YoY); 2) robust loan growth of 37% YoY (ahead of our forecast of 30%); and 3) solid 50% growth in non‐interest income. This should be thanks mainly to the aggressive branch expansion to 1,059 branches at end‐ 2014 with 457 new branches in 2014 vs. 254 new branches in 2013. Balance sheet improving The NPL ratio in 4Q14 declined QoQ to 4.1% from 4.7% in 3Q14 in line with the firm’s estimate of ~4‐5%, but it was up slightly YoY from 3.7% in 4Q13. The reserve‐to‐NPL ratio at end‐14 was quite stable YoY at 85%. Meanwhile, its debt‐to‐equity ratio declined to just 1.5x in 2014 from 4.3x in 2013. See potential earnings upgrade We see potential upside from our current NP estimates on its new businesses that we currently do not include in our projections (e.g., debt collection and distressed asset management business, insurance broker and nano‐finance). We will revisit our earnings estimates after the meeting next month. Note that SAWAD announced a cash dividend of 0.003/share, a stock dividend at the ratio of 50 existing shares: 1 stock dividend and allocated warrants at the ratio of 25 existing shares: 1 warrant for free with an exercise price of Bt60/share. The XA date for these rights will be on 29 Apr‐15. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
PPOP (Btm)
401
707
1,043
1,323
1,672
Net profit (Btm)
405
575
855
1,058
1,336
EPS (Bt)
1.14
0.77
0.85
1.06
1.34
EPS growth (%)
270%
‐33%
11%
24%
26%
Book value (Bt)
1.72
1.51
3.43
3.87
4.68
Dividend (Bt)
0.90
0.60
0.02
0.53
0.67
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
PER (X)
33.62
49.85
44.75
36.15
28.63
PBV (X)
22.28
25.37
11.14
9.87
8.17
Dividend yield (%)
2.35
1.57
0.06
1.38
1.75
ROE (%)
76%
66%
37%
30%
31%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 2014 earnings results
Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec. Interest Income
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14
% YoY
388
511
553
42%
% QoQ
2013
2014
% YoY
8% 1,446
1,955
35%
Interest Expenses
56
48
49
‐12%
2% 230
219
‐5%
Net Interest Income
332
463
504
52%
9% 1,216
1,736
43%
Non Interest Income
147
186
200
36%
7% 491
735
50%
Operating Income
479
649
704
47%
9% 1,707
2,471
45%
Operating Expenses
254
323
346
36%
7% 849
1,220
44%
Operating Profit Provision expenses (Reversal)
225
326
358
59%
10% 858
1,251
46%
52
45
24
‐54%
‐47% 132
189
43%
Taxes
40
57
67
66%
18% 151
207
37%
Net Profit
133
224
267
101%
19% 575
855
49%
PPOP
185
269
291
58%
8% 707
1,043
48%
EPS (Bt)
1.77
2.24
2.67
51%
19% 7.67
8.55
11%
Key Statistics and Ratios (%) Gross NPLs (Btmn)
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14
2013
2014
211
336
323
211
323
Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Loan Loss Reserve/Loans Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio
3.7%
4.7%
4.1%
3.7%
4.1%
86.5%
86.2%
84.6%
86.5%
84.6%
3.2%
4.1%
3.5%
3.2%
3.5%
18.7%
41.5%
39.9%
18.7%
39.9%
122.7%
171.5%
164.1%
122.7%
4.3
1.4
1.5
4.3
1.5
Cost to Income
53.1%
49.8%
49.2%
49.7%
49.4%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
30.6%
28.7%
28.4%
28.8%
29.7%
Debt to equity ratio (x)
164.1%
Net Interest Margin
23.8%
26.3%
26.9%
24.0%
25.5%
Loan Growth YoY Loan Growth QoQ
43.2% 6.2%
31.8% 9.0%
36.6% 10.1%
43.7% 6.2%
36.6% 10.1%
Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: Financial and valuation summary vs. peers Name
Net Profit (Btmn) 13A
NP Growth(%) EPS Growth (%)
PER (X)
P/BV (X)
PEG (X) 14E
PBV/ROE(%) Div.Yield(%)
ROE (%)
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E 14E
2,501 2,487 1,283 1,755 641 671 754 704 429 196 5,608 5,813
2,938 2,094 777 824 302 6,933
‐1 37 5 ‐7 ‐54 4
18 19 16 17 54 19
‐1 37 5 ‐7 ‐55 ‐4
19 19 25 17 71 30
10.7 13.2 12.0 18.7 28.2 16.6
9.0 11.1 9.6 16.0 16.5 12.5
2.4 3.1 n.a. 3.4 n.a. 3.0
2.1 ‐12.58 0.48 2.7 0.36 0.57 1.9 2.54 0.38 3.1 ‐2.71 0.97 1.3 ‐0.52 0.23 2.2 ‐2.58 0.53
0.10 0.12 n.a. 0.17 n.a. 0.13
0.08 0.10 0.09 0.15 0.18 0.12
3.4 3.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.2
3.9 3.6 7.0 3.7 2.4 4.1
25.7 26.0 n.a. 19.8 n.a. 23.8
25.8 26.0 19.7 20.9 7.3 19.9
Srisawad Power 1979** 575 855 Group Lease ** 240 115 IFS Capital Thailand ** 125 138 Krungthai Car Rent & Lease ** 273 214 Singer Thailand 321 293 32 48 Lease It ** Muang Thai Leasing** 351 544 Small companies 1,918 2,207
1,058 404 155 263 342 65 838 3,125
49 ‐52 10 ‐22 ‐9 49 55 15
24 250 12 23 17 37 54 42
11 ‐56 7 ‐22 4 ‐10 15 ‐7
24 164 14 24 14 27 54 46
44.8 80.0 15.0 13.1 11.1 16.2 75.6 36.5
36.2 11.1 30.3 n.a. 13.2 n.a. 10.6 n.a. 9.7 2.3 12.8 2.3 49.1 8.1 23.1 6.0
9.9 3.0 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.2 7.3 4.0
3.93 ‐1.43 2.03 ‐0.59 2.80 ‐1.57 5.03 1.5
0.30 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.10 0.13 0.52 0.26
0.33 0.23 0.13 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.47 0.21
0.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.6 n.a. 0.7 1.4
1.4 2.0 3.9 5.5 3.6 4.7 1.0 3.2
37.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 22.0 17.2 15.5 23.0
30.1 13.1 14.5 14.8 20.1 17.5 15.6 18.0
Sector average 7,526 8,020 10,059 Source: KTZMICO Research, Bloomberg * Fiscal year ended March ** Actual figures
7
25
‐6
38
26.6
17.8
3.1
‐0.56 0.64
0.20 0.17
2.3
3.6 23.4 18.9
Aeon Thana Sinsap Thailand* KrungThai Card** Asia Sermkij Leasing ** Ratchthani Leasing ** Thitikorn ** Large companies
4.5
1.52 0.19 0.96 0.45 0.71 0.47 0.91 0.74
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
15E
Figure 3: SAWAD's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
2015E
PBV (x)
10.0 +2.5 S.D. 9.0 +2 S.D.
+3.5SD
11.0
8.0 +1 S.D.
+1.5 S.D.
+3.0SD
10.3
40
4
7.0
+0.5 S.D.
+2.5SD
9.6
37
-3
6.0
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
+2.0SD
8.9
35
-10
+1.5SD
8.2
32
-17
+1.0SD
7.5
29
-24
11.0 +3.5 S.D. +3 S.D.
Avg.
5.0
-1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
4.0 3.0 2.0
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
Jun-14
May-14
1.0
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Implied market price
Upside/ Downside to current price
(Bt)
(%)
43
11
+0.5SD
6.8
27
-31
Average
6.2
24
-38
-0.5SD
5.5
21
-45
-1.0SD
4.8
18
-52
-1.5SD
4.1
16
-59
-2.0SD
3.4
13
-66
Figure 4: SAWAD's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X)
2015E
PER (x)
+3.0SD
38.5
+2.5SD
36.1
38
0
+2.0SD
33.7
36
-7
+1.5SD
31.4
33
-13
+1.0SD
29.0
31
-20
+0.5SD
26.6
28
-26
Average
24.2
26
-33
10
-0.5SD
21.8
23
-40
5
-1.0SD
19.4
21
-46
-1.5SD
17.1
18
-53
-2.0SD
14.7
16
-59
45
+3.0 S.D. +2.5 S.D. +2 S.D. +1 .5S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg.
40 35 30
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
25 20
-1 .5 S.D. -2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Jun-14
15
Implied market price
Upside/ Downside to current price
(Bt)
(%)
41
7
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
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8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
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900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
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Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
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Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
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G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
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114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
