stowe area market report
Q1 2017 Market Report
April 1, 2017
STOWE AREA MARKET REPORT Coldwell Banker Carlson Real Estate Comprehensive Real Estate Market Analysis
SNOW, VAIL AND LOW INVENTORY The winter season delivered with lots of snow and news of Vail Resorts acquiring Stowe Mountain Resort. However, the lead story in real estate continues to be low inventory; the lowest we’ve seen in many years. Ultimately, this has had the greatest impact on market conditions. Home sales in Stowe, and the rest of Lamoille County, were down for the first quarter as compared to Q1 of 2016. On the other hand, Stowe condominium sales were up significantly, many of which are located near the mountain. The obvious assumption is that this segment of the market was influenced by the Vail Resorts acquisition. National reports show consumer confidence is extremely high, with many feeling this is a good time to purchase real estate. Locally, average and median prices were both up, 10% and 11% respectively over last year. However, for sales to increase inventory will need to be added to the market. As always the Smith Macdonald Group is here to help you navigate our market. As you will see in the following report, we’re headed into a sellers market. It may be worth listing your home at this time. The Stowe market below $500,000 is moving fast.
Sincerely, Peggy, McKee and Maggie The Smith Macdonald Group (802) 793-3566 [email protected]
Q1 2017 Market Report
STOWE RESIDENTIAL Q1 Median: $423,000 Average: $625,718 Units Sold:
11
Available Units:
53
Months Supply:
15
April 1, 2017
STOWE RESIDENTIAL SALES 73% OF SINGLE FAMILY HOMES IN STOWE SOLD UNDER $500,000
STOWE RESIDENTIAL SALES 1ST QTR 2017
9% 9%
STOWE CONDO Q1 Median: $231,500
9%
Average: $228,321 Units Sold:
14
Available Units:
56
Months Supply:
12
73%
Under $500,000
$500,000 to $1,000,000
$1,000,000 to $1,500,000
Over $1,500,000
The majority of Q1 residential home sales were under $500,000. That percentage increased from 52% last year to 73% this year, a total of 8 homes sold. We are seeing very few sales in the above $500,000.
STOWE LAND Q1 Median: $80,000 Average: $80,000 Units Sold:
1
Available Units:
49
Months Supply:
147
There were only 2 homes that sold over $1 million. The 9% reflected in the over $1.5 million segment represents one sale. This home sold for $2,525,000, 24% below the listed price. Currently 11 homes are pending, with list prices ranging from $229,900 to $1,250,000.
Q1 2017 Market Report
April 1, 2017
2017 1ST QUARTER SHOWS A TOTAL OF 11 SALES, WHICH IS A DECREASE OF 52%. STOWE RESIDENTIAL UNITS SOLD 30
25
24 23
20 18
15
15
18
15
15
15
14
11
11
10
5 3
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
In 2016 we reported that Q1 residential sales in Stowe had rebounded to the high previously seen in 2014, representing a total of 23 home sales. This year we are seeing a significant decline to only 11 sales. We believe this is due to the lack of inventory.
Q1 2017 Market Report
April 1, 2017
FOR SALES UNDER $1.5M, THE SOLD TO LIST PRICE IS AN AVERAGE OF 5% BELOW ASKING PRICE. STOWE RESIDENTIAL SOLD TO LIST PRICE 1ST QTR 2017 0.0% -5.0%
-3.5%
-4% -7.7%
-10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0%
Under $500,000
$500,000 to $1,000,000
-24%
$1,000,000 to $1,500,000
Over $1,500,000
We saw positive price gains in the the selling price compared to town assessment, properties should continue to trade above assessment.
IN RELATION TO TOWN ASSESSMENT WE SAW ALL PRICE POINTS MOVE INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY FOR Q1. STOWE RESIDENTIAL 1ST QTR SELLING PRICE TO ASSESSED VALUE 50%
38%
40% 30% 20% 10%
17% 7% 5% 0%
6%
0% -‐10% -‐20%
-‐6% -‐4%
-‐6%
0% -‐3%
-‐5%
5%
25% 19% 19%
25% 10% 0%
-‐7%
0%
7%
-‐1%
-‐20%
-‐30% 2012
Under $500,000
2013
2014
$500,000 to $1,000,000
2015
2016
$1,000,000 to $1,500,000
2017
Over $1,500,000
Q1 2017 Market Report
April 1, 2017
STOWE CONDOMINIUM SALES STOWE CONDO Q1 Sold Price to Town Assessment Under $500K: $500K to $1M: $1M to $1.5M: $1.5M +
-5% 10% NA NA
56% increase in sales, combined with a 15% decrease in inventory, reduces the months of supply from 22 months in 2016 to 12 in 2017.
Similar to Stowe homes, there are currently 12 condominiums pending, of which the highest price is a Stowe Mountain Cabin, listed for $3,300,000.
56% JUMP IN CONDO SALES LIKELY DUE TO VAIL PURCHASE OF STOWE. STOWE CONDOMINIUM SOLD 1ST QTR 2017 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
56
14 4 3 Under $200,000
11
15
4 $200,000 to $400,000
Sold 2016
15 1 0
12
14
0 0
$400,000 to Over $600,000 $600,000
Sold 2017
9
Total
On Market
Since 2012 Stowe has typically seen a rise in condominium sales during the 1st quarter. The exception being last year at this time. After the Vail acquisition was announced in Q1, we saw a number of multiple offer situations on high-end Mountain Road condos and others centered around the Toll House area. Condominium average and median sales prices are affordable for many. For the 1st quarter of 2017 they are both around $230,000. Again, many of these were located on the Mountain Road corridor, and near Stowe Mountain Resort. The Stowe condo inventory mimicked the residential market with a 15% decrease. However, the two differ when it comes to sales prices. The highest sales price for a condominium in Q1 was $320,000.
Q1 2017 Market Report
April 1, 2017
STOWE LAND SALES STOWE LAND Q1
LAND IS DOWN IN EVERY CATEGORY EXCEPT INVENTORY, WHICH IS UP 9%.
Only one land sale recorded in the MLS for the 1st Qtr of 2017. An increase in inventory and only one sale creates 147 months of supply.
STOWE LAND SOLD -‐ 1ST QTR 2017 55
49
50 45 40 35
30
30 25 20
16
15 10 5
2
1
0
0 Under $ 250,000
3
0
$250,000 to $500,000
Sold 2016
0
3
Over $500,000
Sold 2017
5 1 Total
On Market
Buyers are finding it still more advantageous to invest in pre-existing homes and condominiums, rather than building. That may very well be reflected in the number of sales dropping from a total of 5 last year in the 1st quarter, to 1 this year. As we move through the spring and summer, that could very well change. There are currently 6 parcels of land pending.
Q1 2017 Market Report
LAMOILLE COUNTY RESIDENTIAL Q1
LAMOILLE COUNTY SALES (Excluding Stowe)
Median: $216,000
41 HOMES CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT IN LAMOILLE.
Average: $299,792 Units Sold:
31
Available Units:
189
Months Supply:
18
LAMOILLE COUNTY RESIDENTIAL SOLD 1ST QTR 2017 (EXCLUDING STOWE)
189
LAMOILLE COUNTY LAND Q1 Median: $63,500
69 20 14
Average: $85,950
April 1, 2017
58 16
34 8
Under $200,000 $200,000 to $300,000
Units Sold:
10
Available Units:
169
Months Supply:
51
Sold 2016
1 4
28
40
31
3 5
$300,000 to $400,000
Over $400,000
Sold 2017
On Market
Total
In the rest of Lamoille County, a lack of inventory is a similar theme, even though the drop of 7% was much less than in Stowe. Overall there is much more inventory available to choose from north of Stowe, causing some buyers to expand their search into this area. Home sales were down slightly as well; but similar to Stowe, the median price was up 11%. The average on the other hand was up 45%, due to 2 high priced sales, one selling for $820,000 in Hyde Park, and one for $1,550,000 in Morristown. Most of the other sales were under $500,000. There are currently 41 homes pending, ranging up to $700,000.
*Above stats are for Lamoille County excluding Stowe.
As for land parcels, sales were up by 11%, with inventory dropping 12%. This is 9 more land sales than Stowe had, likely due to the fact that the median price is much lower in the rest of the Lamoille County towns. The median and average prices did increase though, by as much as 27% and 30% respectively. There are currently 20 land parcels pending, north of Stowe.
Q1 2017 Market Report
April 1, 2017
WATERBURY SALES
WATERBURY RESIDENTIAL Q1
WATURBURY HAD A 67% INCREASE IN AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE AS COMPARED TO Q1 IN 2016.
Median: $335,000 Average: $375,876 Units Sold:
11
Available Units:
31
Months Supply:
9
WATERBURY RESIDENTIAL SOLD 1ST QTR 2017 35
31
30 25 20
13
15 10 5
3 2 3
3 3 3
1 2
0 Under $200,000 $200,000 to $300,000 Sold 2016
12 4
11 7
0
$300,000 to $400,000
Over $400,000
Sold 2017
On Market
Total
Waterbury had 11 residential homes sales in Q1, the same as Stowe. Typically a tighter market, Waterbury saw an increase in sales despite the amount of inventory dropping by 31%, to a total of 31 homes for sale. The Q1 sales prices in that area ranged from as little as $48,500, up to $760,000. The median and average sales were up significantly, largely due to a few sales well over $420,000. There are 14 pending home sales in Waterbury. There were no land sales in Waterbury for the 1st quarter. Waterbury did see the inventory increased by 41%.
April 1, 2017
STOWE AREA MARKET REPORT Coldwell Banker Carlson Real Estate Comprehensive Real Estate Market Analysis
SNOW, VAIL AND LOW INVENTORY The winter season delivered with lots of snow and news of Vail Resorts acquiring Stowe Mountain Resort. However, the lead story in real estate continues to be low inventory; the lowest we’ve seen in many years. Ultimately, this has had the greatest impact on market conditions. Home sales in Stowe, and the rest of Lamoille County, were down for the first quarter as compared to Q1 of 2016. On the other hand, Stowe condominium sales were up significantly, many of which are located near the mountain. The obvious assumption is that this segment of the market was influenced by the Vail Resorts acquisition. National reports show consumer confidence is extremely high, with many feeling this is a good time to purchase real estate. Locally, average and median prices were both up, 10% and 11% respectively over last year. However, for sales to increase inventory will need to be added to the market. As always the Smith Macdonald Group is here to help you navigate our market. As you will see in the following report, we’re headed into a sellers market. It may be worth listing your home at this time. The Stowe market below $500,000 is moving fast.
Sincerely, Peggy, McKee and Maggie The Smith Macdonald Group (802) 793-3566 [email protected]
Q1 2017 Market Report
STOWE RESIDENTIAL Q1 Median: $423,000 Average: $625,718 Units Sold:
11
Available Units:
53
Months Supply:
15
April 1, 2017
STOWE RESIDENTIAL SALES 73% OF SINGLE FAMILY HOMES IN STOWE SOLD UNDER $500,000
STOWE RESIDENTIAL SALES 1ST QTR 2017
9% 9%
STOWE CONDO Q1 Median: $231,500
9%
Average: $228,321 Units Sold:
14
Available Units:
56
Months Supply:
12
73%
Under $500,000
$500,000 to $1,000,000
$1,000,000 to $1,500,000
Over $1,500,000
The majority of Q1 residential home sales were under $500,000. That percentage increased from 52% last year to 73% this year, a total of 8 homes sold. We are seeing very few sales in the above $500,000.
STOWE LAND Q1 Median: $80,000 Average: $80,000 Units Sold:
1
Available Units:
49
Months Supply:
147
There were only 2 homes that sold over $1 million. The 9% reflected in the over $1.5 million segment represents one sale. This home sold for $2,525,000, 24% below the listed price. Currently 11 homes are pending, with list prices ranging from $229,900 to $1,250,000.
Q1 2017 Market Report
April 1, 2017
2017 1ST QUARTER SHOWS A TOTAL OF 11 SALES, WHICH IS A DECREASE OF 52%. STOWE RESIDENTIAL UNITS SOLD 30
25
24 23
20 18
15
15
18
15
15
15
14
11
11
10
5 3
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
In 2016 we reported that Q1 residential sales in Stowe had rebounded to the high previously seen in 2014, representing a total of 23 home sales. This year we are seeing a significant decline to only 11 sales. We believe this is due to the lack of inventory.
Q1 2017 Market Report
April 1, 2017
FOR SALES UNDER $1.5M, THE SOLD TO LIST PRICE IS AN AVERAGE OF 5% BELOW ASKING PRICE. STOWE RESIDENTIAL SOLD TO LIST PRICE 1ST QTR 2017 0.0% -5.0%
-3.5%
-4% -7.7%
-10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0%
Under $500,000
$500,000 to $1,000,000
-24%
$1,000,000 to $1,500,000
Over $1,500,000
We saw positive price gains in the the selling price compared to town assessment, properties should continue to trade above assessment.
IN RELATION TO TOWN ASSESSMENT WE SAW ALL PRICE POINTS MOVE INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY FOR Q1. STOWE RESIDENTIAL 1ST QTR SELLING PRICE TO ASSESSED VALUE 50%
38%
40% 30% 20% 10%
17% 7% 5% 0%
6%
0% -‐10% -‐20%
-‐6% -‐4%
-‐6%
0% -‐3%
-‐5%
5%
25% 19% 19%
25% 10% 0%
-‐7%
0%
7%
-‐1%
-‐20%
-‐30% 2012
Under $500,000
2013
2014
$500,000 to $1,000,000
2015
2016
$1,000,000 to $1,500,000
2017
Over $1,500,000
Q1 2017 Market Report
April 1, 2017
STOWE CONDOMINIUM SALES STOWE CONDO Q1 Sold Price to Town Assessment Under $500K: $500K to $1M: $1M to $1.5M: $1.5M +
-5% 10% NA NA
56% increase in sales, combined with a 15% decrease in inventory, reduces the months of supply from 22 months in 2016 to 12 in 2017.
Similar to Stowe homes, there are currently 12 condominiums pending, of which the highest price is a Stowe Mountain Cabin, listed for $3,300,000.
56% JUMP IN CONDO SALES LIKELY DUE TO VAIL PURCHASE OF STOWE. STOWE CONDOMINIUM SOLD 1ST QTR 2017 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
56
14 4 3 Under $200,000
11
15
4 $200,000 to $400,000
Sold 2016
15 1 0
12
14
0 0
$400,000 to Over $600,000 $600,000
Sold 2017
9
Total
On Market
Since 2012 Stowe has typically seen a rise in condominium sales during the 1st quarter. The exception being last year at this time. After the Vail acquisition was announced in Q1, we saw a number of multiple offer situations on high-end Mountain Road condos and others centered around the Toll House area. Condominium average and median sales prices are affordable for many. For the 1st quarter of 2017 they are both around $230,000. Again, many of these were located on the Mountain Road corridor, and near Stowe Mountain Resort. The Stowe condo inventory mimicked the residential market with a 15% decrease. However, the two differ when it comes to sales prices. The highest sales price for a condominium in Q1 was $320,000.
Q1 2017 Market Report
April 1, 2017
STOWE LAND SALES STOWE LAND Q1
LAND IS DOWN IN EVERY CATEGORY EXCEPT INVENTORY, WHICH IS UP 9%.
Only one land sale recorded in the MLS for the 1st Qtr of 2017. An increase in inventory and only one sale creates 147 months of supply.
STOWE LAND SOLD -‐ 1ST QTR 2017 55
49
50 45 40 35
30
30 25 20
16
15 10 5
2
1
0
0 Under $ 250,000
3
0
$250,000 to $500,000
Sold 2016
0
3
Over $500,000
Sold 2017
5 1 Total
On Market
Buyers are finding it still more advantageous to invest in pre-existing homes and condominiums, rather than building. That may very well be reflected in the number of sales dropping from a total of 5 last year in the 1st quarter, to 1 this year. As we move through the spring and summer, that could very well change. There are currently 6 parcels of land pending.
Q1 2017 Market Report
LAMOILLE COUNTY RESIDENTIAL Q1
LAMOILLE COUNTY SALES (Excluding Stowe)
Median: $216,000
41 HOMES CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT IN LAMOILLE.
Average: $299,792 Units Sold:
31
Available Units:
189
Months Supply:
18
LAMOILLE COUNTY RESIDENTIAL SOLD 1ST QTR 2017 (EXCLUDING STOWE)
189
LAMOILLE COUNTY LAND Q1 Median: $63,500
69 20 14
Average: $85,950
April 1, 2017
58 16
34 8
Under $200,000 $200,000 to $300,000
Units Sold:
10
Available Units:
169
Months Supply:
51
Sold 2016
1 4
28
40
31
3 5
$300,000 to $400,000
Over $400,000
Sold 2017
On Market
Total
In the rest of Lamoille County, a lack of inventory is a similar theme, even though the drop of 7% was much less than in Stowe. Overall there is much more inventory available to choose from north of Stowe, causing some buyers to expand their search into this area. Home sales were down slightly as well; but similar to Stowe, the median price was up 11%. The average on the other hand was up 45%, due to 2 high priced sales, one selling for $820,000 in Hyde Park, and one for $1,550,000 in Morristown. Most of the other sales were under $500,000. There are currently 41 homes pending, ranging up to $700,000.
*Above stats are for Lamoille County excluding Stowe.
As for land parcels, sales were up by 11%, with inventory dropping 12%. This is 9 more land sales than Stowe had, likely due to the fact that the median price is much lower in the rest of the Lamoille County towns. The median and average prices did increase though, by as much as 27% and 30% respectively. There are currently 20 land parcels pending, north of Stowe.
Q1 2017 Market Report
April 1, 2017
WATERBURY SALES
WATERBURY RESIDENTIAL Q1
WATURBURY HAD A 67% INCREASE IN AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE AS COMPARED TO Q1 IN 2016.
Median: $335,000 Average: $375,876 Units Sold:
11
Available Units:
31
Months Supply:
9
WATERBURY RESIDENTIAL SOLD 1ST QTR 2017 35
31
30 25 20
13
15 10 5
3 2 3
3 3 3
1 2
0 Under $200,000 $200,000 to $300,000 Sold 2016
12 4
11 7
0
$300,000 to $400,000
Over $400,000
Sold 2017
On Market
Total
Waterbury had 11 residential homes sales in Q1, the same as Stowe. Typically a tighter market, Waterbury saw an increase in sales despite the amount of inventory dropping by 31%, to a total of 31 homes for sale. The Q1 sales prices in that area ranged from as little as $48,500, up to $760,000. The median and average sales were up significantly, largely due to a few sales well over $420,000. There are 14 pending home sales in Waterbury. There were no land sales in Waterbury for the 1st quarter. Waterbury did see the inventory increased by 41%.
