Sustainable Mobility Sustainable Mobility
Sustainable Mobility A Global Imperative
Fuel Cell Basics
World Population and Vehicle Park Vehicle ownership 17.6%
1,400
14 15.0%
12 10
1,200 1,000
12.7% 11.9%
8
800
10.5%
6 4
1,600
600
8.2%
400
2
200
0
0 1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
1.1 Billion vehicles by 2020 / 1.9 Billion by 2050
Vehicle park / millions
World population / billions
16
DOE: A Bold new approach is required Million barrels per day
20% CAFE Increase (=28.8 mpg)
25
Projected
Actual 20
Transportation Oil Use
40% CAFE Increase (=33.6 mpg)
15
60% CAFE Increase (=38.4 mpg)
10
Domestic Production
5
0 1970
• •
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Even an immediate 60 percent increase in CAFE standards will not close the gap between transportation demand and domestic production. CAFE increases include light trucks - Beyond 2020, EIA data extrapolated
Can Hydrogen provide the “Four Wins” 1. Society Petroleum dependence, Balance of payments, Lower local and greenhouse gas emissions
4. Energy Companies
Positive Business Case
Vehicle Fuel
Positive Business Case
Performance equivalent or superior to ICE, Exciting vehicle designs, Safe and sufficient availability of fuel
2. Customers
3. OEMs
Hydrogen Addresses the Societal Drivers Petroleum Dependence
Balance of Payments
Hydrogen Local Air Quality
Threat of Global Climate Change (CO2)
W-T-W: hydrogen FCVs vs. gasoline ¶50% reduction in energy consumption ¶99% reduction in petroleum consumption ¶50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions ¶95% reduction in volatile organic carbon emissions ¶99% reduction in carbon monoxide emissions ¶50% reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions ¶30% increase in particulate emissions (electricity gen.) ¶No impact on sulfur oxide emissions (electricity gen.) ¶W-T-W FCV emissions essentially eliminated if:
• CO2 sequestered at hydrogen generation plant • Cleaner sources of electricity used for hydrogen compression
GM-Shell: Benning Road Station
DOE Demo: currently 8 vehicles increasing to 40 in DC, NY, CA, MI
Army Fuel Cell Vehicle 4WD fuel cell powered Crew Cab Pickup for administrative duty Dual fuel cell power modules (front and real axles) Status: Built and undergoing predelivery testing Delivery to Ft. Belvoir scheduled for March 2005 Demonstration to run at least through July 2006
GM-Dow Stationary Fuel Cell Power Project
Freeport, Freeport, TX TX Project Project February, February, 2004 2004
If just 4% of US vehicles were powered by fuel cells, they would equal the generating capacity of the US grid
Key Commercialization Challenges • Fuel Cell Stack Cost / Durability / Reliability • Hydrogen Storage • Fueling Infrastructure •Codes and Standards •Supplier Development
DOE Estimate of PEM Fuel Cell Cost:
A 7X gap between today’s high volume cost and the DOE target 3000 Cost in $/kW 50kW system
Today’s high volume estimate is $225/kW and is attributed to platinum and membrane cost Further platinum reduction to goal of 0.2g/kW, and reduced membrane cost
Cost improved through Platinum reduction to 0.8 g/kW
200 30 1990 • •
1995
2000
2005
2010
High volume production defined as 500,000 units per year Cost estimated by TIAX with enhanced hydrogen storage
2015
Hydrogen Storage Technologies Liquid Hydrogen
Compressed Hydrogen
Metal Hydride
700 bar (10,000 psi)
Fresh Cold Very Cold Extremely Cold Cryogenic
-253 °C
25 °C
200 °C
Congressional Record 1875 “A new source of power... called gasoline has been produced by a Boston engineer. Instead of burning the fuel under a boiler, it is exploded inside the cylinder of an engine... The dangers are obvious. Stores of gasoline in the hands of people interested primarily in profit would constitute a fire and explosive hazard of the first rank. Horseless carriages propelled by gasoline might attain speeds of 14, or even 20 miles per hour. The menace to our people of this type hurtling through our streets and along our roads and poisoning the atmosphere would call for prompt legislative action even if the military and economic implications were not so overwhelming... the cost of producing (gasoline) is far beyond the financial capacity of private industry... In addition the development of this new power may displace the use of horses, which would wreck our agriculture.”
Existing Hydrogen Infrastructure
The world’s existing Hydrogen production could fuel 200 million vehicles
fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen sales
How to accelerate the time to reach the Inflection Point of the Hydrogen Economy
Gov’t as early adopter
Early customers
Consumer Incentives Capital Risk (Infrastructure & vehicles) Financial support
Overcome low, early phase volumes Solid state storage Basic R & D
Codes and standards
Catalysts / Membranes Best Practices National, uniform C&S
time
What do we recommend government do? • Use the bully pulpit to confirm the vision – remember
the hydrogen economy will be driven by the market
• Increase funding of basic R&D, particularly hydrogen
storage technologies, catalysts, membranes
• Fully fund DOE’s fuel cell vehicle demonstration
programs – they are the right size at the right time
• Develop hydrogen-friendly best practices leading to
technology enabling codes & standards
• Address the financial risks associated with early roll-out
of hydrogen infrastructure and fuel cell vehicles
Fuel Cell Basics
World Population and Vehicle Park Vehicle ownership 17.6%
1,400
14 15.0%
12 10
1,200 1,000
12.7% 11.9%
8
800
10.5%
6 4
1,600
600
8.2%
400
2
200
0
0 1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
1.1 Billion vehicles by 2020 / 1.9 Billion by 2050
Vehicle park / millions
World population / billions
16
DOE: A Bold new approach is required Million barrels per day
20% CAFE Increase (=28.8 mpg)
25
Projected
Actual 20
Transportation Oil Use
40% CAFE Increase (=33.6 mpg)
15
60% CAFE Increase (=38.4 mpg)
10
Domestic Production
5
0 1970
• •
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Even an immediate 60 percent increase in CAFE standards will not close the gap between transportation demand and domestic production. CAFE increases include light trucks - Beyond 2020, EIA data extrapolated
Can Hydrogen provide the “Four Wins” 1. Society Petroleum dependence, Balance of payments, Lower local and greenhouse gas emissions
4. Energy Companies
Positive Business Case
Vehicle Fuel
Positive Business Case
Performance equivalent or superior to ICE, Exciting vehicle designs, Safe and sufficient availability of fuel
2. Customers
3. OEMs
Hydrogen Addresses the Societal Drivers Petroleum Dependence
Balance of Payments
Hydrogen Local Air Quality
Threat of Global Climate Change (CO2)
W-T-W: hydrogen FCVs vs. gasoline ¶50% reduction in energy consumption ¶99% reduction in petroleum consumption ¶50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions ¶95% reduction in volatile organic carbon emissions ¶99% reduction in carbon monoxide emissions ¶50% reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions ¶30% increase in particulate emissions (electricity gen.) ¶No impact on sulfur oxide emissions (electricity gen.) ¶W-T-W FCV emissions essentially eliminated if:
• CO2 sequestered at hydrogen generation plant • Cleaner sources of electricity used for hydrogen compression
GM-Shell: Benning Road Station
DOE Demo: currently 8 vehicles increasing to 40 in DC, NY, CA, MI
Army Fuel Cell Vehicle 4WD fuel cell powered Crew Cab Pickup for administrative duty Dual fuel cell power modules (front and real axles) Status: Built and undergoing predelivery testing Delivery to Ft. Belvoir scheduled for March 2005 Demonstration to run at least through July 2006
GM-Dow Stationary Fuel Cell Power Project
Freeport, Freeport, TX TX Project Project February, February, 2004 2004
If just 4% of US vehicles were powered by fuel cells, they would equal the generating capacity of the US grid
Key Commercialization Challenges • Fuel Cell Stack Cost / Durability / Reliability • Hydrogen Storage • Fueling Infrastructure •Codes and Standards •Supplier Development
DOE Estimate of PEM Fuel Cell Cost:
A 7X gap between today’s high volume cost and the DOE target 3000 Cost in $/kW 50kW system
Today’s high volume estimate is $225/kW and is attributed to platinum and membrane cost Further platinum reduction to goal of 0.2g/kW, and reduced membrane cost
Cost improved through Platinum reduction to 0.8 g/kW
200 30 1990 • •
1995
2000
2005
2010
High volume production defined as 500,000 units per year Cost estimated by TIAX with enhanced hydrogen storage
2015
Hydrogen Storage Technologies Liquid Hydrogen
Compressed Hydrogen
Metal Hydride
700 bar (10,000 psi)
Fresh Cold Very Cold Extremely Cold Cryogenic
-253 °C
25 °C
200 °C
Congressional Record 1875 “A new source of power... called gasoline has been produced by a Boston engineer. Instead of burning the fuel under a boiler, it is exploded inside the cylinder of an engine... The dangers are obvious. Stores of gasoline in the hands of people interested primarily in profit would constitute a fire and explosive hazard of the first rank. Horseless carriages propelled by gasoline might attain speeds of 14, or even 20 miles per hour. The menace to our people of this type hurtling through our streets and along our roads and poisoning the atmosphere would call for prompt legislative action even if the military and economic implications were not so overwhelming... the cost of producing (gasoline) is far beyond the financial capacity of private industry... In addition the development of this new power may displace the use of horses, which would wreck our agriculture.”
Existing Hydrogen Infrastructure
The world’s existing Hydrogen production could fuel 200 million vehicles
fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen sales
How to accelerate the time to reach the Inflection Point of the Hydrogen Economy
Gov’t as early adopter
Early customers
Consumer Incentives Capital Risk (Infrastructure & vehicles) Financial support
Overcome low, early phase volumes Solid state storage Basic R & D
Codes and standards
Catalysts / Membranes Best Practices National, uniform C&S
time
What do we recommend government do? • Use the bully pulpit to confirm the vision – remember
the hydrogen economy will be driven by the market
• Increase funding of basic R&D, particularly hydrogen
storage technologies, catalysts, membranes
• Fully fund DOE’s fuel cell vehicle demonstration
programs – they are the right size at the right time
• Develop hydrogen-friendly best practices leading to
technology enabling codes & standards
• Address the financial risks associated with early roll-out
of hydrogen infrastructure and fuel cell vehicles
