Thai Union Frozen Products Underperform (15E TP Bt20.60)
Company Update
Close Bt22.10
Food & Beverage January 23, 2015
Earning upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Bumble Bee deal priced in
FY14
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.079
1.312
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐3.6%
‐3.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TUF.BK/TUF TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
4,771.82
Par (Bt)
0.25
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
105.00/3,236.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
45.00/38.87
52 week High / Low (Bt)
24.50/16.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
4,122.00
NVDR (%)
10.65
Estimated free float (%)
60.33
Beta
1.51
URL
www.thaiuniongroup.com
CGR
Bumble Bee deal already priced in Believing that TUF’s share price has already reflected the Bumble Bee deal and the likely decline of 4Q14 earnings QoQ, we maintain an “UNDERPERFORM” rating and the fair prices of Bt20.60 (16x PER) and Bt21.75/share (including Bumble Bee). Progress on the Bumble Bee deal Regarding the Bumble Bee deal, TUF will submit documents to a US agency for the first round in order to clarify the issue about anti‐trust law by Jan‐15. This round should take one month for consideration and after that the second round of documentation will start and take around 4‐6 months. Hence, the deal is expected to be completed by late 3Q15 to early 4Q15. 4Q14 earnings up by 32%YoY but down by 44%QoQ TUF has consolidated the performance of two new firms (MerAlliance and King Oscar) since Nov‐14. However, its 4Q14 gross profit margin may have weakened QoQ due to seasonally slow sales and high tuna costs. In addition, the firm may have booked extra expenses before the yearend (for marketing activities and expenses relating to the acquisition of Bumble Bee). Hence, we estimate TUF’s 4Q14 net profit at Bt1.08bn. Maintain 2015E core profit growth of 23%YoY We stand by our forecast calling for TUF to report a core profit of Bt6.1bn, up 23%YoY, in 2015. A key earnings growth driver is the sales growth estimate of 20%YoY to Bt150bn (US$4.46bn vs. TUF’s target of US$5bn) on the back of the consolidation of MerAlliance and King Oscar. Note that we have yet to incorporate the performance of Bumble Bee into our current forecasts.
Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
Revenues (Btmn)
106,698
112,813
125,010
149,554
166,062
Net profit (Btmn)
4,694
2,853
5,468
6,066
7,493
EPS (Bt)
1.0725
0.62
1.15
1.27
1.57
Norm. EPS (Bt)
0.91
0.60
1.04
1.27
1.57
‐27%
‐34%
72%
23%
24%
0.53
0.37
0.57
0.64
0.79
Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt)
Phornsri Laysanitsaerekul
BV (Bt)
8.11
8.61
9.58
10.27
11.21
Analyst , no 17621
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
[email protected] PER (x)
20.61
35.50
19.29
17.38
14.07
66 (0) 2624‐6258
EV/EBITDA (x)
13.48
20.25
13.95
12.92
11.11
PBV (x)
2.73
2.57
2.31
2.15
1.97
Dividend yield (%)
2.38%
1.69%
2.59%
2.88%
3.55%
ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
15.2% 89.9
7.4% 106.6
12.8% 72.5
12.8% 78.8
14.6% 69.8
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Progress on the Bumble Bee deal Regarding the deal to acquire Bumble Bee Holdco S.C.A worth US$1.51bn (Bt49,801mn), TUF will submit documents to a US agency for the first round in order to clarify the issue about anti‐trust law by Jan‐15 (note: the acquisition will enable TUF to become a market leader, with a market share of 47% in the US). The first round will should take around one month for consideration and after that the second round of documentation and interviews will start and may take around 4‐6 months. Hence, the anti‐trust law issue should be resolved by late 3Q15 to early 4Q15, which is when the operation of Bubble Bee can be consolidated into TUF’s earnings performance. 4Q14 earnings up by 32%YoY but down by 44%QoQ TUF has consolidated the performance of two new firms (MerAlliance and King Oscar) since Nov‐14. These companies are expected to contribute combined sales amounting to US$300mn p.a. to TUF’s operating performance. However, the firm’s 4Q14 gross profit margin may have weakened QoQ due to seasonally slow sales and high tuna costs. In addition, the firm may have booked extra expenses before the yearend (for marketing activities and expenses relating to the acquisition of Bumble Bee). Hence, we estimate TUF’s 4Q14 net profit of Bt1.08bn, up by 32%YoY but down 44%QoQ. Finally, the firm is expected to report 2014E net profit of Bt5.47bn, growing by 92%YoY. Tuna price likely to stay at US$1,200‐1,400/ton The Skipjack tuna price fell further to US$1,180/ton in Dec‐14, and averaged out at US$1,187/ton in 4Q14, down 24%YoY and QoQ. The price fall was the result of seasonally high supply and lower catching cost following the falls in oil prices. According to the management, the tuna price may stay at around US$1,200‐1,400/ton in 2015. Note that the falling tuna price in 4Q14 should have a positive impact on the gross profit margin from TUF’s branded tuna products in the next couple of quarters. Figure 1: WPO Skipjack tuna prices (US$ per ton) Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg
2004 870 780 680 750 920 950 1,040 1,150 1,170 800 780 700 883
2,500
2005 730 800 985 990 925 900 970 995 880 820 750 710 871
2,290 2,198 2,017 1,915 1,813
2,000
2,198
2006 780 1,040 880 840 925 960 840 930 945 885 880 1,020 910
2007 1,030 970 990 1,070 1,230 1,300 1,420 1,550 1,390 1,475 1,410 1,500 1,278
2008 1,560 1,460 1,520 1,650 1,800 1,945 1,930 1,840 1,800 1,500 1,170 850 1,585
2,178
2009 1,025 1,220 1,140 940 1,190 1,450 1,450 1,380 1,150 865 850 1,030 1,141
2010 1,075 960 1,085 1,365 1,530 1,705 1,560 1,326 1,215 1,080 1,232 1,305 1,287
2011 1,515 1,590 1,475 1,680 1,840 1,905 1,620 1,845 1,975 1,830 1,910 2,005 1,766
2,000 1,875
2,003
1,800
1,868
1,225
2014 1,275 1,225 1,175 1,225 1,485 1,710 1,800 1,600 1,280 1,200 1,180 1,180 1,361
1,570 1,400
1,560 1,473
1,500
2013 2,075 2,195 2,325 2,320 2,195 2,020 1,850 1,880 1,875 1,770 1,570 1,400 1,956
1,800 1,710 1,600 1,485
1,770
1,600 1,580
2012 2,030 1,930 2,090 2,195 2,198 2,200 2,240 2,280 2,350 2,210 1,900 1,900 2,127
1,400
1,187
1,280 1,180 1,200 1,180
1,275 1,225 1,225 1,175
1,200 1,000
1,000
800 600
500
400 200
Source: TUF, KTZ Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Nov‐14
Sep‐14
Jul‐14
May‐14
Mar‐14
Jan‐14
Nov‐13
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
Sep‐13
‐
0
Maintain 2015E core profit growth of 23%YoY We stand by our forecast calling for TUF to report a core profit of Bt6.1bn, up 23%YoY, in 2015. A key earnings growth driver is the sales growth estimate of 20%YoY to Bt150bn (US$4.46bn vs. TUF’s target of US$5bn) on the back of the full‐year consolidation of MerAlliance and King Oscar. We expect these firms to contribute sales of US$300mn p.a. Note that we have yet to incorporate the performance of Bumble Bee into our current forecasts. Figure 2: PER (X) 35.0 30.0 +2 S.D. 25.0 +1 S.D. 20.0
+0.5 S.D. 15.0 Avg. -0.5 S.D. 10.0 -1 S.D. 5.0 -2 S.D.
Jan-15
Sep-14
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
0.0
Source: KT Z Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
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Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
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4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
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T.Namuang, A.Muang,
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Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
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Cyber Branch @ North Nana
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624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.